jayyy

If there’s anything we do well (which isn’t very much) it’s overrunning coming from our SW with cold air in place. We don’t typically overperform but this is one of the few types of events where it’s possible with that initial part

It was a slight improvement I think 

HoCo jackpot. Knewwww it


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NAMming incoming. Great trends with this one. Not a HECS or MECS but I dont think we expected such. SECSy asf

Show us that snow porn!

Really upped the totals for TN!

You know what they say about when it snows it Tennessee!

We have a winnah. Defo would stall  for at least two weeks.

Jeb disco: a storm will park off the coast near ocean city and crawl at a staggered 0.0001 mph pace to the NE, dumping 4 feet of snow over a 10 day period.

NWS forecast for Columbia MD. Wintry week ahead! Finally.

We truly are the best subforum. Gallows humor, herb remedies, bargaining stage champs. Excited for 2-4”.  I’m glad to be with y’all. 

I have lived in the Hudson valley in NY, buffalo, central PA and now here since 2007. I’ve been active in all of those subforums over the years. This is hands down the best subforum on AmericanWX. We have the best analysis / discussions without a doubt and while we’re all snow weenies / psychopaths in our own right, there’s no community I’d rather be a part of.

Was it a deck pic?

Hahaha not quite!

This place has hit rock bottom. 

Or it’s peaking #perspective

More of a herbal guys these days, but I can still get down when the need arises. 

Was just going to say the same thing. My doctor thinks herbal remedies are better for my health, and I concur.


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I'll take 2.5 if it will kindly stick around for the 19th event. It's been a hot minute for snow, even longer for snow on snow.

You get snow, and you get snow, and you get snow..

Let’s get a nice advisory event out of this to start off our late Jan - early march heater

I have a real problem that serious guys and i need your input.  So i just arrived to brunch with Deck Pic. Now think long and hard:  i know I’m gonna drink at least two mimosas. They are $9 each. Bottomless is $19.  What do I do? 

Bottomless is the way to go… in all facets of life. As far as your drinks are concerned, it’s clearly the more financially sound decision.

ummm most people in here drew the same conclusion only 24 hours earlier than DT.  check the panic room

I certainly didn’t, nor did deck pic and several others who kept commenting on the fact that things could easily trend better once we got to Saturday and beyond. When things are looking too progressive / flat, there’s typically room for things to trend in our direction. It’s when we need things to be less amped / further south / colder that things don’t pan out. 9/10 times, models correct NW / more amped as we get inside the day 4 range.

There are a ton of people in here who get pretty emotional over whether or not it snows. That’s fine because 99% of them are weenies, not professional meteorologists. What you’re saying doesn’t help DT’s case at all. It makes it worse. See how LWX / legit Mets like MillvilleWx handle forecasts? They update us with the facts and likelihoods. They don’t fully commit until they have all relevant / current information. They don’t have wild emotional swings on twitter and their vlogs. I’m speaking to the fact that DT doesn’t stick to his convictions based on meteorology / the setup we have going into a storm. He swings with the models. Anyone can read the GFS / Euro snow output from 7 days out and cheer or pout about it as they change. It’s one thing if we do it. It’s another if Mets with a following do it. People rely on these mets for forecasts to make life decisions. Just think there’s a professional way to go about it, and DT doesn’t exemplify that.

damn. Bullish

Agree with this forecast wholeheartedly. Think they did a good job being patient and letting things unfold before jumping the gun in either direction. Models have been consistent showing that “tongue” of enhanced qpf from DC NE up to BAL, so this looks spot on. I really don’t think temps will be an issue at all for 99% of us. Virga is annoying but it will cool the column. Dynamic cooling should fairly easily win out. Doubt the metros see much mixing, if any, especially in Baltimore.

ALEET!
DT’s jaw just dropped to the floor 

Didn’t DT give up on this 24 hours ago? I told y’all. It’s the weather version of the Jim Cramer effect… predict the opposite of what DT&JB predict and you’re typically golden. “My jaw is on the floor. How dare models show snow in DC and BAL”. Gimme a break DT

Even has the “surprise” mount [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention]to Catoctins jack. And the mini-jack over DCA will obvs get displaced to MBY. Let’s ride.

Seems like a realistic depiction accounting for better lift / temps up this way but having the qpf jack closer to 95. Agreed though. More likely you see that 3-4” in that secondary jack than DC metro but who knows.


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I should make more threads in the future.  I mean since yall give negative superstitious credit, might as well get the fake good credit.

What we need to do is create threads and then a second thread when everything goes to shit on models at the day 4-5 range. That’s the key!


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I hope and think by Saturday we will identify that the pattern changed today 1/14. We received info starting 12/15 that such change was 5-7  days away and lived with those delays  for a month but looking like the true pattern change of a week of well below average temps with snow instead of 50’s and heavy rain. 

First day of our weather changing for sure. Upper air longwave pattern certainly changed before today.


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Been snowing for almost 1.5 hours, but no accumulation. Temp down to 34. 

Just stopped at my brothers house in Ellicott city near turf valley and their mulch and colder surfaces have a trace / dusting, but nothing on streets / sidewalks.


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Looks like two groups of models, one has more snow NW of the fall line, the other has more SE. 
Gonna be interesting, and I hope everyone wins. 

Right along 95 or JUST NW in places like Howard county, NW Baltimore county, E MoCo appears to be where many models are keying in for those possible 3-4” amounts. Love to see it


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Yep, we got 'em now too! Of course, we "lowlanders" don't get the feet of snow that they do up there in them thar Union Bridge mountains...but we'll take our piddling portion and be happy.

It hasn’t been any better here the past couple of years. At 3” on the season. Not exactly a huge difference between my house and my old house in Ellicott city since 2022 honestly. Nice to see it snowing everywhere for a change. Also appears Howard county will do better than my area on Tuesday as well if most models are correct about the just west of 95 mini jack. I’ll be working that day so I’m excited to be there for it.

Beggars can't be choosers. I'm glad we should finally have a wintry week. Snow showers today. Possible light, steady snow Monday night/Tuesday(maybe first inch in years), another possible threat Friday. Very cold all week. It does look like it gets mild the following week, I'm not sure how long that's expected to last, but I'll enjoy whatever presents itself this week. 

I think it’s very short lived. Reloading should happen rapidly like Bob alluded to.


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12z UKIE is i95 special 

 

NAM GFS Euro and Ukie all aligned on this it seems. 2-3” with 4” lollipops on some models JUST outside the metros.


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Ellicott city - highway 29. I’d call this moderate snow for sure. Temp dropping like a rock


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Appears to be colder / heavier at home. Got some accumulation baby!!


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