jayyy

55 minutes ago, gopper said:

The third thread will be Just Right!  Let's go.  Start another one

No no! You keep the same thread when things look decent. We would be reverse jinxing it back to shit with another thread lmao

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

12z and 18z really brought the Gefs back from 1.5 inches at DCA to 2.5 inches, at this point ens are out of their range but still nice to see

OP is preferred within 72 hours for sure but ensembles aren’t quite out of range either. If OP and ensembles match , that’s usually a good clue the OP is onto something 

50 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

Hopefully the gfs bites because DT just canceled the storm 

It’s like the inverse Jim Cramer effect… but for weather. DT or JB cancel = game on 

I’ll have some of whatever the NAM is smokin’

I called it last night. NAMing would bring back interest lol can’t help but laugh at the irony at this point 

that being said… most models showing 2-4” type deal. I’ll take that as an appetizer to the 20th

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

FWIW. The JMA had the storm on the 16th lol

 

Look! Another 1007mb low. Models love that number 

Consensus seems to be forming around seeing periods of light to possibly moderate snow between mon - wed (with Sunday morning squalls) 1-3/2-4 type deal. Certainly not the ceiling we had a few days ago, but I’d honestly take it. Some snow on the ground that won’t melt due to legit cold being around leading into a more favorable window? Why not. Gotta kick this off somehow

It’s cool, we’ll keep this unpinned discreet thread and no one will track it and then BOOM… with 48 hours left we see models trend toward a nice 2-4” forum wide cold smoke event

Edit - nvm, Ji is already here

There is a very good possibility we make it February without snow. Despite all the epic looks and epic weeklies and mint

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

Please take it to the panic room


.

The ICON is acceptable for my backyard here in 21057

Do tell

0z RGEM looked like it was about to get going!

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk

You know one model is gonna show something good. Gotta keep folks interested

They had back to back 970s storms bust. Dear God, we are actually not in last place

My buddy in Schaumburg just NW of Chicago got 7” with storm one and 11.5” from storm two. Wouldn’t necessarily call that a bust.


.

We’ve got time for one more “we’re back” cycle… I expect a single good run tonight from the CMC/GFS/EURO/UKIE

You know it’s coming. Something to keep folks hanging by a thread.

When all other guidance has abandoned us… you know what time it is…. NAMing time

Fixed! I knew you had it in you..

Yeah, for some reason when the “sent from my
phone using Tapatalk” toggle is checked, it enters a period 3 lines down. Terrible coding job by Tapatalk.

What kind of imbecile puts a period 3 lines down from the end of their sentence?

Your mother. It’s what shows up from my sig for some reason. Eat a shlong, Yeoman.

WB 18Z GFS pretty pathetic through Friday.

At this point I might as well go visit my Alma mater (university at buffalo) if I want to see some legit snow. Last week’s foot in NY helped soothed my weenie soul but I need more.

Watch the 00z NAM show what we want


.

Thread jinx is real. Prove me wrong.


.

Icon looks like a 2-4” event dc north 

Shit I’d take a nice advisory level event at this point. Get the ball rolling heading into peak climo and a prime pattern window


.

yea it is what it is... we all know who the JV players are, but its still better to have them on our side than against.  Preponderance of evidence and all that jazz... 

JV for sure, but it’s halfway decent within the 48-60 hour timeframe, which is where some of these key differences are occurring. As you said, better to have it on our side than not.

I am not a big fan of the NAM period. But it is definitely an improvement over 12Z.

Agreed. That being said…. For as much shit as that model gets… is a threat REALLY there without a proper NAMing? Just sayin’. We haven’t had a proper NAMing all season and I have 3” to show for it (shut it Ravensrule)


.

GEOS-5 (12z) also basically out to sea, joining the ACCESS-G, SPIRE, UM(mmmmmmmmmmmm) models

Next up… the WRF-GONADS


.

To be fair, every run since November has been mint and I will give credit where it is due, I have seen my mint green grass every day his winter.

You must be a life coach.


.

We REALLY need some areawide snow Some in here are for real traumatized by the last few years and it shows.

NAM at range is just that, but it does handle the energy out west very similarly to the GFS Ukie CMC in the short term, where it at least has *some* semblance of credibility.

Would love to see the euro start trending our way by 00z tomorrow once that Midwest storm has mostly cleared. This is a possible long duration event (Monday night start) but some models show a later Tuesday - Wednesday impact, so we’re still pretty far out as far as “meteorological time” is concerned.

Buckle up. Going to be a “fun” next 72-96 hours of tracking.

At least the euro only has the icon on its side currently. GFS CMC Ukie combo is nice for our area but I agree with PSU… would rather have the euro on our side than not. It’s the best model for a reason. Would like to see it make a legit move toward the other camp sooner than later. Good news is we’re still 4 days out or so


.