jayyy

Atmospheric memory is a thing.

Sure. But it’s an arctic front vs a complex storm setup. Not really the same thing.

Wednesday and yesterday it gave me 2+" today and 12z today gave me 1+". I ended up with a coating in spots.

I’d say predicting the precise location of isolated snow squalls is different than a full storm but…

Where are you in HOCO? Must be the only person getting rippage.

That picture I took was on rt 40, Chatham station outside trilogy dispensary. Stopped there on my way home from work.

Just left work. It’s ripping out here in HOCO


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Better ratios up N and also some coastal love for NEMD and DE. Solid snow all around for the entire metro & surrounding areas, but as I’ve said for days, I’d be pretty surprised if DC south sees more snow than Columbia Baltimore Bel Air etc. This storm has central MD written all over it. Models have been waffling 50-75 miles here and there, which is to be expected and is still remarkable accuracy 3-5 days out, but our climo rarely fails to tell the story at the end of the day, especially at the front end of a cold pattern. 90+% of us will see warning level snowfall. About the best we could ask for to kick off a potentially epic January.

Great GFS run there. Cold smoke up this way

Moved towards euro / gfs / cmc. All I wanted to see out of the Ukie. The setup upstairs looks good. Not worried about short pump seeing more than us ultimately. Big run coming up shortly!

Good luck making a snowfall forecast! I mean if it's gonna be the difference between 3-6 and mixing or a foot for the southern part of our forum, or the difference of a foot or 3-4 inches for my yard and north.....man what do you even call there?

4-8” from dc to the md/pa line with jackpot amounts up to 12” if you’re putting out an early forecast. But yeah, pinpointing the jackpot zone will be tough.

Day 3 of saying this, buuuut a split between the euro / gfs is a good bet at this juncture.

Not up my way on that. Would be another wsw fail. 

Splitting the difference between GFS / Euro is probably the best bet at this point. Would be 6+ for mostly everyone. We’re pretty close to game time but still a good 60+ out. Expecting this to nudge north a tiny bit by Sunday. Said this yesterday, but I expect the latitude around Winchester due east toward Baltimore to be in a prime position for this one (north enough for all snow, south enough for qpf)

A wise man once posted this.  Could have sworn it was you! 

That was me for sure. It’s my go to but I’m certainly not a red tagger or as knowledgeable as CAPE PSU and others

Those with a bit more knowledge than me, were a bit too close now to be using ensembles right? Glad the EPS mean is solid don’t get me wrong, but that’s to be expected with the OP euro looking so good for days now. Feels like 72ish hours out we should be relying mainly on OPs? GFS / EURO over GEFS / EPS?

Great post. Helps ease the nerves around here. I still think DC will still mix with some ice but I think 00z Euro trends slightly south (DC bullseye or just north) and 00z GFS trends slightly north (Fredericksburg bullseye or just south of DC)

Based on historical precedent of storms tending to be a bit north of where models depict them, I think that the latitude between DC and Baltimore may be best positioned for this one as they are far enough north for better thermals and south enough for heavier precip. The trend is overall nudging north over the past 24 hours. Not a huge jump but enough that I’d be much rather be in C MD than C VA currently.

Euro has been rock steady (with some expected minor waddling on the exact location of the precip max) Let’s reel her in! 4 days and change to go

Ocean storm is sucking it dry.

Where’s ravens rule when ya need him most

Its nice to see it back away from the western trough.  I don't think Chuck will be impressed by the puny blocking signal, though.
ETA: Puny to him anway.

We don’t want or need an overbearing block. Semi “weak” to moderate as well as decaying blocks have produced many of our biggest snowstorms in years past. It’s what couples with that block that’s important. A favorable PAC / - EPO / -NAO and the presence of a southern jet is a huge signal for our neck of the woods. Subject to change of course, but this is truly the best setup we’ve seen on models roughly 10 days out in several years.

That period of the 4th through the 12th will need to be monitored super closely. There could be as many as 3 windows of opportunity in that 8-9 day stretch. GFS showed multiple ways to score some winter around these parts and there's more evolutions that would be workable with the progression of the Pacific along with transitory blocking to our northeast. It's a ways away and could very well shift, but the trends are friendly at the moment. 

Keep talking dirty hahaha

Trends look good, no doubt. If we still see this look around the 28-29th, it’s game on.

Snowing pretty decently down at work in Columbia. A welcome sight indeed

Gfs made a massive jump

… show us the maps padawan (I’m on my phone)

Icon

The ICON the only model that shifted? Not gonna hold my breath if that’s the case.

Damn, can we just get a LITTLE snow to calm some nerves in here!? Haha. Besides PSU, CAPE, Heisy, and a handful of others providing some unbiased analysis and having some great discussions, it’s kind of a shitshow in here right now. Stormy’s always off his rocker but good lord haha. Everybody chill.

It’s December 14th for starters. We knew our ceiling would be low this winter. Patience is going to be required this winter - we ALL knew this going in. Let’s not act surprised about what PSU is saying. He’s not wrong. We may not LIKE what he has to say - as we all want a ton of snow (him included I’m sure) - but what’s the point of pretending like we’re in some epic +PDO Modoki niño and ignoring the facts? The man isn’t saying it won’t snow. We *could* get lucky and strike gold sure, but the historical data (plus our new base state) strongly argues that getting a good snowfall this winter will be like pulling teeth.

We’re not out of the game. Keep your expectations in check and you won’t be disappointed.

Also, everyone stop uttering the words B__ D__ in here. What the phuck is wrong with yall

weatherwill thinks if a model dosent have the exact storm 30 runs in a row....that it went poof

You’ve been known to do the same from time to time. You also cancelled winter like 5 days ago lol

Love ya Ji


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Obviously it can we just need an actual storm. Not like it’s snowing anywhere close to here anytime soon besides far north. 

Also, pretty sure the lowlands technically saw some snow in late November. Didn’t accumulate but it was snowing in places like Columbia and points N. It’s clearly possible. Difficult? 150%. A big storm? Even less likely. But not impossible.