jayyy
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Posts posted by jayyy
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I really like this set up. There's a lot to like about this potential if you're expectations are realistic. A moderate snowstorm with a SECS upside is very much alive.
Thank you. Best shot we’ve had so far this winter and people are already cliff jumping over model waffles 5 days out. Gfs just showed a solid event and it’s still depressing as phuck in here.
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GGEM GFS consensus anyone?
Kinda hilarious that the cities have seen no snow in 2 years and now 5”+ for Baltimore proper is a “rugpull”. We’d pretty much all be jumping for joy if that GFS run played out verbatim. A low along the coast with no precip issues? Sign me up.
Come on. It’s way too early for this nonsense talk. At least save it for Sunday.-
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Verbatim it's how you'd think it would be. 3 to 5 for the city S and E More over St Marys county, northern neck
I know suppression is more of a risk than the opposite this go around with the tpv squashing things, but if someone asked where we’d prefer things to be 5 days out… we’d say SE of us 99% of the time. Perhaps models are pressing the tpv a bit too much and we end up with an areawide 3-6” type event. I’d way rather be on the cold side of things with room for things to move N / be more amped than praying for less amped / more progressive as it rarely plays out that way.
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00z gfs anyone? Since we’ve got one a weird tangent about next winter already and ji is posting 500mb maps for 11 months out.
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The initial part of the storm will be hitting in sub 100 hours come tomorrow mornings runs.
Saturday 00z will be the real test. Once that cutter comes and goes, how do models look? So close, yet so far.-
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[mention=2035]Bob Chill[/mention] was 100% right about the relax. Ive not been concerned about it and thought it would be VERY brief, but now I'm starting to think it doesn't even happen at all. The higher heights are actually mostly from higher avg heights above the levels we give a crap about, the low and mid levels are reasonably cold, and the STJ is undercutting the pattern with a beautiful EPO/PNA ridge. We could get a snowstorm easy in what was supposed to be the "relax". Then all 3 major guidance systems transition back to a -AO/NAO regime with the STJ undercutting a EPO/PNA ridge. That is the "it" look and it holds for the whole month of Feb on all guidance.
I am glad I didn't lower my seasonal snowfall totals when I was thinking about it a week or two ago.
Been a while since I’ve seen you genuinely excited for a longwave pattern that sets up for more than a brief window of time. Probably since feb 2022, but even then, I believe you were cautiously optimistic as the typical caveats applied. Been a while since we haven’t had to rely on everything lining up perfectly. The tall tale sign of a good MA snow pattern is having numerous ways to score, not just one outcome that requires 5-6-7 different things to lineup perfectly.
The CFS and other ensembles do look ridiculously good for February. Delayed but not denied if that were to pan out. Yes, it’s somewhat annoying that we’ve had to wait til 1/16 and beyond to see snow in our area but in reality, that’s only about 3’ish weeks into winter and we all know February is our money maker. All it takes is a decent or better showing from one or both of these next waves (16th and 20th) and an active February to put us above climo - potentially well above climo. IF models are correct about February showcasing a pattern that sustains a -AO/NAO/EPO regime, then woof. I also agree that if we have those lined up, we don’t want some big dog +PNA. Congrats NYC and new England if that happens. Give me a reloading -AO - NAO -EPO with a near neutral PNA and I bet we score big.
Things are obviously going to shift around a bit, but models have generally nailed the longwave pattern 2-3-4 weeks out since fall. Exciting times, no doubt.
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All models have trended towards the euro except the CMC
GEM being on its own is exactly what we want honestly. I’d take a GFS EURO combo all day.
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I know on paper the GFS looks good, and this might sound confusing, but I personally am not a fan of the GFS or rest of todays 12z runs so far. I was hoping we’d see a trend towards the 6z control progression of clearing the front first and then developing a second low. The cmc/Ukie/icon/ gfs all have similar evolutions now, I’m just worried that we’re seeing the GFS colder/SE bias at play.
If todays guidance so far is correct we’re basically limiting the ceiling here and seriously would have issues with temps being too warm.
A control like progression would give us no worries for it being too amped and would give us a chance at an historic major event imo.
We can still cash in on the current progression advertised, but meh. See what wrinkle euro throws in here shortly
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Seriously? 6-10” areawide with high ratios isn’t a good run for you? Why would we want this thing to amp up and introduce possible temp issues? What you’re rooting for is going to end in a NYC and NE special, I guarantee it. Also, the OP GFS too cold /SE bias isn’t much of a thing anymore since it’s latest upgrade. It led the charge with that last storm showing it further north. From time to time it’s a bit too progressive at h5, but not like it used to be when you could pretty much guarantee the gfs would trend NW by 250+ miles around day 3-4.
This storm was never going to be historic, and rooting for some jacked up wave that results from a complicated evolution rarely works out for our latitude. The first storm in a prime window rarely does. It’s the follow up wave or 2 once the colds been established and the boundarys been dragged south that typically hits big for us.
Not sure why’d we’d want to complicate things further for this first storm when our airmass isn’t as established as it will be around the 20th.-
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20th is intriguing but that cold press is so insane I'm not sure if there's any room for the GoM energy to do what we need
We’re waiting on models to fully resolve the cutter and then the Monday night - wed AM timeframe. No shot in sam hell models have the 20th pinned down. One threat at a time ladies.
I knew the gfs looked good by the sheer number of replies in this thread when I opened the app. Let’s GO-
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Lock it up. Beggars can’t be choosers
Seriously. If models were to *hypothetically* look like this the night before the storm hit (I know, it very likely won’t… but if it did) I’d prob stay at my brothers place closer to 95 to enjoy it. Would I take 5-7” of cold smoke? Hell yes. In a heartbeat.
I don’t want hear squat about needing a HECS, Ji. An areawide high advisory to low end warning snowfall with temps well below freezing and high ratios (probably near 15:1 with these temps) would do wonders for this subforum’s morale. Only needing 0.5” of QPF to get half a foot would be sweet. Plus, who wouldn’t like some snowcover heading into the 19th and beyond?-
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Terp is right about that cutter. It’s a big storm and will impact how things look up top leading into the 16-17th event. Models are trying their best to hone in on the 500mb setup, but it’s pretty clear that theyre having trouble deciphering what’s going on given the significant run to run changes at h5 on each model. Once that cutter comes and goes, the envelope of outcomes should tighten drastically.
I actually thought today’s trends at 500mb were encouraging. Surface didn’t quite get there due to timing / strength of certain features but there’s plenty of time for those pieces to come together between now and Tuesday. Snow mean on the EPS looked the best it’s looked all season earlier today. The GEPS median looks much better tonight as well. It’s doable, but we will need a little luck to get there - as always.
Pretty obvious we all want to see something significant after what we’ve endured the past few years, but I’d sure as heck take a light to moderate snow event to get everyone on the board and get this late winter snow rally started. Some snow cover leading into the 19th and beyond when the longwave pattern gets tasty AF? Yes please.
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Ok, it's about that time. Back from the gym in time. Goddamn resolutioners are back. Can't wait until March when 75% of them will be gone. Anyway, on with the show.....
Got my beer and a joint ready to go. Mid-Atlantic country, let’s ride.
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The 19th is a burp away from being a big time event
^ boom-
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Where is WW?
Snow maps haven't looked this good on a mean for awhile.
Maybe he’s trying reverse psychology where he doesn’t post every single snow map and it comes to fruition. Hell, weather53 just had their come to jeebus moment above regarding models showing outcome possibilities and not being a forecast in their own right. Ya never know
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It's the big reset, and that's not a good thing.
It’s not actually a big reset. The EPS reloads the block and the southern stream becomes active again 3-4 days after things “break down”
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Good loooord
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Lost power quite a few times this evening. Roar, says the wind.
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agreed, but water temps are on fire in most of the world right now, so perfect track rain/slop fests are becoming more common especially in early winter. I think it's one reason why march has been far snowier than december lately.
PSU touched upon this earlier. Cooler water temps and SSTs in feb & march help in marginal areas like ours. Deep December cold has become a lot less common and therefore it’s taking longer for ocean / lake temps to cool off. Have to imagine the Great Lakes are much warmer than usual for this time of year. Also means the LES machine is about to go ape shit when the real cold comes starting next week
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Not worried about the day 15 “relax”.
EPS goes from this day 15
to this 3 days later
and 3 days after that the nao is tanking again.
By the time the pattern goes to crap in the east the pacific has already resumed a favorable configuration to bounce right back.
Just keep swimming…-
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I think people were a little too hard on you given how most of us don't use models the way they're supposed to be utilized - even though we generally know better
When we're sitting here at a week out analyzing discrete mesoscale features (like rain/snow lines) using a singular global model (myself included), I think we need to be a little more tolerant of people who don't indulge in this stuff.
Also think some people’s definition of what “accurate” means is severely misguided. If guidance 2-3 weeks out shows a pattern change and a potential storm or two but ends up being a few days late / early on the arrival of the cold air and 100 miles off with SLP track, that’s still astonishingly accurate from that lead. Models nailed last storm from very far out, they simply missed some of the finer details that determined exactly where sufficiently cold air (for snow) would be.
Now, if we’re talking minute details (exact track, R/S line, etc) we really shouldn’t be taking any solution outside 5 days verbatim. That’s never changed. Sure, models have been upgraded and are a bit more accurate, but it’s extremely rare that any model gets all details correct outside of 3 days.
The issue is we want models to give us our desired outcome, and when they don’t, they “suck” or they are misleading. They’re not misleading. We’re misleading ourselves most of the time based on our emotions regarding desired outcome.-
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Precip type aside… the sheer size of this storm and its widespread impacts from the gulf to the Midwest to New England is very impressive.
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Some places that get banding will do ok but honestly yesterday I was looking at the midwest (I actually look at shit other than our back yard, I know cray cray) and observed even they are suffering some of the thermal issues we do. Obviously not to the same extent but the boundary is killing them too! In mid January with a 988 low taking theor ideal track, there is rain mixing at times along the lake fronts and surface temps in the mid 30s requiring heavy rates to accumulate. The snowfall results will be pretty pathetic across the region compared to what you would expect given the time of year, track, and intensity of the storm.
I observed the same thing on my trip home from Vermont this weekend. At my friends house at 1400 feet there was ~16” with temps in the 20s. But I stopped in Bennington in the Valley Sunday evening and they didn’t have enough snow to cover the grass and it was 34 degrees! They had 2” of slop. Same story the whole way down. When I hit an area that got death banded near Poughkeepsie there was a foot of mash potatoes but places in between without elevation even up in interior New England looked like some Deep South 2” slush event.
We are not the only ones having these issues lately. Luckily the longer this general pattern lasts and the deeper into winter we get (SSTs cool some) the colder the default air mass will get so I’m NOT cancelling winter. The pattern flipped right around Xmas. And each successive press of cold has been colder. Eventually we will have a window with a workable airmass and then we have to score! But winter is getting pushed back later and later which shortens our window and obviously since we would have less chances (single math) is gonna hurt our snowfall overall. I don’t agree Winter is extending. If you look back 100 years of records we’ve had past periods that snowed a lot in March. March has been snowier in comparison to early winter so it seems great but in reality it’s not getting snowier than it was historically. What is happening is March climo is being affected way less than Dec/Jan because the waters have cooled by then, so it makes it seem like it’s getting snowier in comparison because it’s not getting less snowy like other months. I probably butchered explaining that. Sorry.
This year I am banking on the fact that in a Nino with the juiced STJ and a weak polar vortex we just need a couple weeks to cooperate to go big! We can absolutely dumped on quick if things line up in this kind of pattern. But in a year without a juiced up stj if all we get is a couple months to try to score all our snow it’s just not mathematically likely we get that much when other than ninos it typically takes 4 or 5 legit threats to score a big hit.
Definitely concerned about flooding in my parents neck of the woods. They saw that foot of mashed potatoes you mentioned in the Hudson valley. They’re currently snowing at 30 degrees on the frontend but it’ll be 40 and pouring rain later on. Gonna be uuuugly for some areas up that way. -
Unfortunately not happening with that MJO phase 4 wave. The pacific ocean has been really cutting our winters short the last 4 years with a pacific firehouse, -PNA and the MJ0 lag in the MC.
Meh, MJO impact is overrated. We’ve seen too many phase 8-1’s fail and phase 4-5 succeed to believe it’s somehow the end all be all for our chances to get snow. A factor? Sure. One of a many. But the MJO is always so overblown on this forum.
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They’ve looked good all year. Where is your snow?
I envy your positivity. Truly.
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
Or… you don’t give a crap about the difference between 1” of rain at 45 degrees or 1.5” of rain at 55 degrees when you know it won’t be snow. You just don’t notice when things change. Models showed a ton of rain over us leading into last storm and many busted low in qpf. You just didn’t care because you weren’t emotionally attached to the outcome.
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