jayyy

Good loooord. the HERPDERP really is the gift that keeps on giving. #pounded

AA hoCo moCo schools are closed for all of my fellow parents and teachers etc. 

18z looks juiced. All I cared to look for at this point. Dynamics (placement of bands highest qpf totals and changeover times) are all subject to tiny changes in each model. Not smart to put stock into any one model for this reason. Looking good for an area wide 3-6” dump before we slopfest and then hopefully we dry slot before much rain can fall with a track to our NW. 8” definitely attainable in Climo favored areas (congrats Westminster)

Currently at 32 degrees with a dew point of 8

5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

RGEM has not been good at all in the last couple of winters and I feel like HRDPS and RGEM both lean too cold. When the Euro and NAM seem to be in agreement, I think that is probably the way to lean unfortunately, especially when you have the GFS going from snow to rain, which we know is ridiculous.

What? As somebody who grew up just NW of NYC in the suburbs just west of the Hudson River, going from snow to rain is extremely common in marginal situations, especially in the later parts of winter. We are expected to hit 60 Thursday, unsure how it’s riridulous that we go to rain with a storm that’s tracking very far to our NW

Just now, poolz1 said:

Was just looking at dews on the latest models...Actually thought to myself that 2m temps will likely be 1-3 degrees colder than modeled once wet bulbing takes place.  I can see 25/26f well NW of 95.

Current dewpt imby is 10....which is about 3 degrees colder than forecast...

Key observation sir. Same here. Dew point is at 12 here, was forecasted to be 15. A few degrees in marginal situations always helps! 

Solid call clskinsfan. I think we see fairly uniform totals from that initial giant slug of snow west of the bay and particularly inland. I’m thinking along the lines of 4” in dc, maybe 5-6” Baltimore (typically hold the column a bit longer) and 6-8” inland. Of course Parrs ridge and elevated areas could lollipop above 8 because of their climo advantage  

18z suites doing their usual thing. Overdoing precip. 6z and 18z seem to always do this. The 12z and 0z suites with more data input always bring us back to reality. That being said...

I see 4-8” for almost all of Maryland west of the bay and NoVA.  6-10” in Westminster and surrounding areas. Leesburg is in an interest spot. I think they could max as well 

LWX has updated their point click. Little rain in their forecast. Baltimore and DC suburbs such as Gaithersburg Olney Ellicott City etc, 4-8” before sleet and freezing rain. Westminster area and the usual snow belt,  5-9” before the slop takeover. 

This initial thump is going to be wild. Someone may get upwards of 10” in a short 6-8 hour window in the elevated areas between parrs ridge PSU and Westminster. 

These types of storms often overperform. They also tend to produce snow to ice before dry slotting us, which would be optimal.  I don’t see many of us getting more than a 0.1-.2 in rainfall. PSU May never see any rain at all

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Rgem precip slug looks like a real  good trajectory for most of the area and it's got probably the best CAD signal ......I like it 

Wow at that wall of heavy snow in N VA. Some models dump over an inch of QPF from 6-12z. This is definitely that type of setup. Those intense rates will also keep us snow for a longer duration, before switching to ice and eventually being dry slotted. That high pressure is in New York. Near Albany. Zero chance that low pressure goes so far north if that’s the case. 

Winter storm watch baby!

And I wouldn’t be so worried about it changing to rain. A solid thump, to ice, to dry slot is likely what’s coming our way. 

Oh, look, more people freaking out over shifts in models 3 days away from a storm. Shocker. Truly unbelievable  

IF YOU WANT ALL SNOW, Every storm and a ton of it, move to buffalo or Vermont or Maine or the top of the Rockies or Sierra. You live the mid Atlantic. Stop expecting a KU every single storm. 

The models mostly show an appreciable snowfall for Wednesday. Yes, some show only a 2-4 type storm currently. Dark sky is forecasting 6-9” for Wednesday here in central MD.

I’m thinking the potential is there for along the lines of 4-7” in central MD, 6-9” far NW and more like 2-5” by DC and along 95 and points east-southeast if things fall properly into place. 

Stop with the snow weenie suicide every time a model waivers, for the love of god. Mother Nature  is actually punishing you for bi**hing so much 

And good grief, stop with the sun angle nonsense. How many times does it need to be 50-60 one day, snow the next and stick for people to stop with this nonsense? It’s the heart of winter for us. If temps are 30-31 and it’s snowing, it’ll stick. 

Id take 3-5 for the heart of Maryland and run with it! Euro is holding strong, which I guess is the best model to have on our side. NAM hasn’t come around, but honestly, who cares 

Dark sky showing 3-6” of snow Sunday night into Monday (upcoming weekend) I never pay attention to the amounts that far out 17th-22nd looks to be an interesting period with the potential for back to back winter storms in the Mid Atlantic / northeast. 

Same rollercoaster every storm guys. I say this once per storm thread. Storms show up on maps in the long range, trend the complete opposite way we need it to, and then slowly trends back our way in the 3-5 day range. It’s normal. These models are 100% guessing from day 3 on. There are a ton of moving parts, most of which aren’t even close to being onshore or “in place”. As we get more data to work with, models begin to come to a consensus. Far too many making predictions when are still so far out. This can be anything from mostly rain to warning snowfall at this point. Today and tonight’s trends showed us that snow is looking like it will be part of the equation. That’s all people should be taking from models at this point. Thermos, precip amounts... none of it matters. Just the setup and moving pieces on the map. 

Climo for our area says two things

1) seeing significant snow days after a very warm spell is not a likely occurrence 

However...

2) it likes to snow in Maryland PA and VA during the week of Valentine’s Day 

which ones wins out? 

Tonight’s euro is drool worthy in the 7-14 day range. My god. Borderline 2 HECS on that run  

Still plenty of time for the two possible events next week. Mon - tues  and then thurs - fri. I think we can eek out a warning level thump mon/tues if the  GFS UKMET FV3 h5 setups are to be believed 

Coming down good in Columbia / EC area. Easily hit 2”

10 minutes ago, 87storms said:

simply put, that squall was legendary.  it was essentially lake effect snow for an hour.  probably about twice as heavy as the final band that came through yesterday.

Times like this I miss being in buffalo. 2-3 feet of LES downtown with temp of 1 degree. Unreal. This is a mini weak LES band at best, but I’ll take another inch toward climo!

Reports of very heavy snow in Brunswick MD near frederick

squal should hit MoCo and HoCo by 2 o’clock 

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You gonna bet on that? Lol

No but he’s clearly using his knowledge of the weather, particularly long range patterns, to make that assessment. Many respected Mets agree. Around 2/9 give or take a few days, may kick off the best sustained winter pattern we’ve seen since 2010-2011 around these parts. As bob said, will it produce for us? TBD. No guarantee any pattern delivers.... but I’d be shocked if we don’t see at least one or two more significant snowfalls in February. The wildcard is the SE ridge. Will it be kept at bay by a -NAO -EPO +PNA regime? Time will tell. 

One thing is for sure... it’s going to be very fun tracking the  ~2/9-2/28 timeframe. Let’s hope at least one of those chances come to pass. 

Measured a few spots with 2.5”, a few with 2”, a few with 2.25...

2.25” will do it. I’ll take it over nada! Fresh snowpack and a deep freeze leading into Friday’s possible storm. Come on baby! this winter has been good to us so far, who knows!

Nice little event! I’ll take 2” and run with it. Last band incoming. Could drop another quick .5-1”

Heavy snow in Ellicott City - accumulating easily on all surfaces - HUGE flakes. Looks amazing out there. Our new WWA says 2-3” for western and northern burbs of Baltimore, with 1” for Baltimore and dc.  

I do think people in Baltimore and dc proper are going to be disappointed unless we get some better lift than the models are showing today. Light spotty precip isn’t going to overcome any sort of SE flow ahead of an “approaching” low. Anything is possible and it wouldn’t be the first time models all got it wrong.   

NJ NY and the NE has a better chance at this one than we do. They just have more time for the cold air to settle and they’ll have better dynamics to work with. Looking like warning level snowfalls are possible by my folks in the Hudson valley. They deserve it. They’ve been snubbed all year.

My alma mater, buffalo, Is about to get smoked by a classic WSW Erie wind . I have serious FOMO about the snowfall they are about to see. Temps in the single digits with huge fluffy flakes and 12-18” in 16 hours time. Southtowns will likely see 2 feet within 24 hours. What a sight to see. 

nam is useless during the event. Makes no sense to me, but it always does this back and forth nonsense the day of a storm. I’d honestly look at the RAPP bedore using HRR or NAM for qpf 

Come onnn... we need precip to linger until the main batch arrives to keep the columns cool. Fingers crossed.