jayyy

NOVA DC Central MD smack down coming? Me thinks so.

Almost all of that is from the initial low

Curious to see what the varsity models have to say with new data in. That HRRR run was crazy but we should take that with a grain of salt unless other models begin to back it up.

Woof! 11.1 in Baltimore proper before the coastal takes shape. That’d be somethin’ alright. Now that PSU has identified what’s causing these model differences, it’ll be interesting to see how the next 12-18 hours play out.

Good callout. We can parse through 50 models every few hours, but ground truth is also important.

It may be consistently wrong, but goddamn has it been consistent

I did like the uniformity of the 3k and NBM’s precip for sure. Less complex

Yep. Still think you all in Columbia are very much in the game for 6-10” totals. Models tend to underdo the northern band and with the storm being further south this go around, I think that’s more likely your area than the M/D line.

The 500 plot above is not a -PNA .

Pretty sure the NAM is already in line with the GFS for the most part.

Yep. Makes a lot of sense. Someone’s going to get caught between the dual band structure for a time. Rising and sinking air and such. Hope it’s not Baltimore but it very well could be.

ICON came in more in line with the NAM RAP HRRR GFS for sure. Not a huge bump north, but certainly noticeable for central MD

NAM overamp bias? We shall see. Man oh man, the battle of the models continues. We’re talking about 75 mile shifts in any given direction but those shifts means the world of difference for the N and S fringes of the forum. Central MD seems to be sitting pretty for this one right now.

Thanks, I know. Usually their maps are a bit tighter than 4-8” though. But again, it makes sense given where things stand currently.

Reasonable to give a range given some of the uncertainties we face. Seems like they considered our local climo and a blend of models for that call.

Surprised anyone here actually still tunes in to their forecasts tbh.

Dare I say it…. Actually pretty reasonable .

NBM blend has been rocksteady with what I’ve had in mind for this storm for days. It’s not always spot on, but it gives us an idea of what’s possible given the uncertainties we’re facing. This would be a win for pretty much everyone. I live in Carroll county so this isn’t an IMBY thing; I can’t shake the idea that the MOCO - HOCO deathband zone will likely do well with this one. Not buying the 3-4” depictions from some models. This setup has a classic look at 500mb for that area to do well on the NW side of the storm. Can someone remind me what models get considered in the NBM blend?

CAD all the way down into NW NC. Classic signature right there

I know it’s the FV3 RAP and SREF, but they’ve been pretty consistent on the due W to E nature of precip. Cautious on those though as we’re definitely outside of their useful range

Agreed. The area i’m most interested in as far as “boom potential” is the moco-hoco-bwi corridor. If models are underdoing the dual banding aspect, they could score some nice totals in that area where they stay all snow but are also far enough south. Going to be a nailbiter for sure.

00z tonight should be interesting. We’ll finally be within *roughly*24 hours of the onset, so hi res models will hold a lot more weight.

GFS / NAM locked in. Lets see the euro come in line by 00z tonight and were all systems go

Looks great

Don’t post all at once now [emoji23]