nchighcountrywx

New Euro Week 3 Michael Ventrice (‪@MJVentrice‬) 1/28/19, 17:44 Verification pic.twitter.com/RXduMxnd1V

JB thinks the models have it wrong in 2 weeks and the blocking ridge will be where he has it circled around February 11 which will keep a cold push and active storm track through the South. Let’s hope it works out

If you are outside of the High Country, I think you have to hang in there and hope for something after the 15th

And Euro...

GFS

And this on the way from Pacific

GSP updated Sunday AM

Sharp gradient Wednesday night

Noted: Joe Bastardi (‪@BigJoeBastardi‬) 1/21/19, 09:13 Euro Ensembles lining up grand planetary wave feature N Pole to 20 north similar to 1993 superstorm pattern, For an ensemble run given its many members pretty darn impressive below Day 8, 6-10 mean 500, day 7,8 surface Pattern is not boring, no one is snoring pic.twitter.com/xPzxN3uHFC

This is dream software interface for the Davis Vantage Pro. Truly real time. This link is to a demo site in France where the software developer resides http://wxswitch.blaasoft.com/wxwebhtml/wo3/index.html?5879db69-5a06-4716-8bb4-a2d0cbb7a535 It would be great if the NWS could have that type of real time access display to AWOS/ASOS

High County Wind Gusts Sunday 20JAN18

GFMTN. 2 100+ Mph Wind Gusts

January 25

Please don't do away with the Area Forecast Discussions. We live by them !

Mount Mitchell. 34 inches

Mesoscale Discussion https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1702.html Mesoscale Discussion 1702 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sun Dec 09 2018 Areas affected...Portions of northern SC...western/central NC...far eastern TN...and southern VA Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 090808Z - 091315Z SUMMARY...Snow, sleet, and freezing rain will continue this morning. Heavy snow, with rates of 1-2 inches per hour, should be most common across parts of western/central NC into southern VA. Freezing rain, with rates potentially up to 0.10 inch per hour, may develop over portions of northern SC into southern/central NC. DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield has overspread parts of the Southeast into the southern Mid-Atlantic this morning ahead of a southern-stream shortwave trough over the lower MS Valley. Moderate to heavy snow has been observed over western NC and vicinity over the past couple of hours as cold air damming related to a strong surface high centered over PA remains in place over parts of NC/SC and VA. Enhanced snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour should become common across portions of western/central NC into southern VA through 13Z as strong lift occurring through a saturated dendritic growth zone supports efficient wet snow production. A transition to sleet, freezing rain, and eventually rain should occur from south to north for portions of northern SC into southern/central NC and vicinity as temperatures within the 900-700 mb layer gradually warn above freezing. At 08Z, the surface wetbulb freezing line extends from roughly AVL to RDU in NC, and how much farther south it will advance this morning remains unclear. The timing of the changeover from snow to sleet/freezing rain also remains uncertain, but most short-term guidance suggests it will occur first in western SC (as recently observed at KGSP), and gradually spread northeastward into southern/central NC over the next few hours. Given the ongoing light to moderate precipitation noted on area radars, freezing rain rates up to 0.10 inch per hour may occur, but surface temperatures near freezing across this region may tend to limit ice accretion outside of the higher terrain. ..Gleason.. 12/09/2018

NAM output courtesy of Wright Weather Snow Sleet Freezing Rain

HRRR for Sunday 4am

Updated WPC Guidance and Discussion https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

1AM Sunday

New WPC Probabilities

And the Sunday 0Z HRRR Simulated Radar

I think someone else posted it, but this is what the HRRR does to temperatures mid afternoon Saturday Reason for concern: Yes

WPC Maps