nchighcountrywx

It’s all about humidity control. Even though upper 50s to mid 60s can be prevalent the dew points can remain high. A separate dehumidifier in the system can help

Mitchell fell to 13.5 at 900am

NAM is bullish https://imgur.com/gallery/b9ubOd8

Classic feature 30’ film on The NC High Country and entire state https://youtu.be/lEro9Z0Edy0

Some snow inbound over 4500’ https://imgur.com/gallery/Bmiws6b

Looks good for more high elevation accumulating snow later Friday and overnight

Appalachian Trail Over Hump, Big Yellow and Roan Mountains Balds in December 2019 Absolutely fantastic 1 hour video and rendering of the experience of being in the AT with snow cover and above the clouds. Few are blessed to experience this in summer and even fewer in winter. It is truly the best the NC High Country has to offer. Heaven at its best. Kudos to the fellow who put this together Enjoy

Warnings hoisted Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Graham- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Robbinsville, and Stecoah 257 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY BELOW 3500 FEET... * WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 11 inches above 3500 feet. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 5 inches in these lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...The mountains of western North Carolina, generally near the Tennessee border. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches

Our friend and board contributor Big Frosty from the Foothills of NC is having back spinal surgery this morning to have spacers and a rod put in to help lessen back pain associated with nerve compression. Please cover him in prayer this morning for a successful surgery with no complications.

BAM Official 2019-2020 Winter Forecast Jon Miller is joined by Michael Clark of BAMWx.com to discuss BAM's Official Winter of 2019-2020 Forecast. Clark believes the United States could be in for a Top Eight to Top Twelve coldest winter. The key a anomalous Pacific SST during a rate El Nino Modoki Pattern and the QBO 2014/2015 1977/1978

NAM output courtesy of Wright Weather Snow Sleet Freezing Rain

HRRR for Sunday 4am

Updated WPC Guidance and Discussion https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

1AM Sunday

New WPC Probabilities

And the Sunday 0Z HRRR Simulated Radar

I think someone else posted it, but this is what the HRRR does to temperatures mid afternoon Saturday Reason for concern: Yes

WPC Maps

WPC Heavy Snowfall Discussion https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

Mike Dross (‪@MikeWDross‬) 12/6/18, 14:52 ‪@AlConklin‬ Yep. It gets started /w deterministic snowfall maps from GFS/ECMWF that are flawed to begin with, not to mention 5+ days out. By the time we get into the mesoscale model time frame (when we actually know what's likely), public already going off flawed/inferior/old model data. +100

Cutting totals way back

NWS has lots of key decisions today. I would not be surprised to see this migrate over into primarily a sleet event outside of the mountains into the western piedmont.

WPC Discussion https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd ...Southern Appalachians... Day 3... Developing low pressure along the Gulf Coast will strengthen and push eastward to be near the GA/SC coast at the end of day 3. This low will develop in response to a southern stream shortwave moving through the Arklatex and into the TN Valley, as well as diffluence within the right entrance region to an upper jet streaking across New England. Guidance is in reasonably good agreement in the evolution and placement of this surface low, with the NAM a strong and very cold outlier, while the CMC is too fast with the phasing of northern stream energy, and is pulling the surface low too far north too quickly. A blend of the GEFS and ECEns mean is preferred, which suggests precipitation spreading across the Southeast during Saturday. The guidance has overall slowed precip onset due to dry air within a strong wedge of high pressure which remains in place as a result of robust mid-level confluence. E/SE low and mid-level winds spread northward atop the surface wedge, isentropic lift will increase, and precipitation will gradually saturate the column. This will result in wet-bulb cooling of the thermal profile and snow/sleet/freezing rain is all likely to develop Saturday night, with snow in the higher terrain and freezing rain/sleet elsewhere. Despite model differences in timing and p-type, there is a strong multi-model signal for more than 4 inches of snow in the Southern Appalachians before 12Z/Sunday and this is where WPC probabilities are highest for accumulating snow. Some uncertainty exists into how far north precipitation will spread on Day 3 due to dry air inhibition, and there is likely to be a sharp north gradient to snowfall. Additionally, a period of freezing rain and sleet is likely in portions of the mountains and foothills, and WPC probabilities have increased to 20 percent for 0.25 inches of accretion across portions of the area.

Glanced at 6z GFS Buffkit Hickory snow is way down from 20"+ yesterday to 6" today Winston is at 13" RDU at 0 CLT at 4 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=khky

Watch your Buffkit data.... The lines are already being drawn. As of the morning runs: GSO, INT, HKY snow. All other sites to the South and East.. no snow (RDU, CLT) with transition line somewhere in between those areas.