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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I’m not sold the amplitude is enough to matter. Also the GEPS and GEFS the last few runs are trying to show more of western ridge/eastern trof pattern after 2/4, the GEPS more so and both have shown the block moving a bit more northeast too
  2. SnowGoose69
    The main system isn’t gonna do it. It’s that 2nd surface reflection that goes up into the Great Lakes and cuts ESE after 84 hours that will do it here. The problem is that might go far enough north that the metro gets rain. It all depends how the block and confluence work. At this stage I think we can say the main event before that doesn’t get much above PHL, if that.
  3. SnowGoose69
    The Euro took a step towards the GFS/CMC but it still misses by quite a bit
  4. SnowGoose69
    It actually was a tad further south. At this stage most models and the Euro especially show a ridiculously long period of light snow or flurries which I’m not sure such a scenario happens
  5. SnowGoose69
    UKMET through 72 more resembles the GFS and CMC for Tuesday. It has literally no storm at all for Thursday lol
  6. SnowGoose69
    I’m not sold we even see anything on that storm down here. I think that one won’t get much north of southern CT if that
  7. SnowGoose69
    I wouldn’t trust snow maps a ton on this event because despite the air mass because okay the rates might be so low that you don’t end up with the accumulation you think. It does appear that the core of the snow might fall at night or early in the day which does help
  8. SnowGoose69
    The NAM historically has sucked with these types of systems beyond 48 however. Usually is somewhat too flat. We’ve gotten all excited here a few times on more classic events like this where every model has I90 being pounded but the NAM shows the main snow axis over NYC only for it to jump 100 miles inside 2 days. This looks like it might be that 1 in 50 SWFE type events where this area gets decent snows. There hasn’t really been one in 20 years or more. I don’t include 2/23/08 because that technically flipped over to rain eventually
  9. SnowGoose69
    Once again it seems the ensembles want to go ridgy in the west to some degree after 2/3. I wonder if it’s for real finally or the PAC jet will ruin it again
  10. SnowGoose69
    The NAM was pretty scary though at 84 if you’re in SNE or especially NYC. It’s flat as a pancake but basically on its own at this stage. The NAM almost always has a south bias though beyond 48 with any sort of event that resembles a SWFE. It’s been that way since it’s inception or switch over from the ETA
  11. SnowGoose69
    The NAM at 84 meanwhile has practically no indication this would come north of the PA/MD border
  12. SnowGoose69
    The last 2 weeks and the next 2 weeks are a good example of what if....someone should post an image of what this pattern would have looked like with a positive AO/NAO vs what we currently have. It would be 60-70 every day here
  13. SnowGoose69
    There is a real fine line for sure. Even if the SE ridge pumps enough for the wave to ride along BWI-ACY which is ideal for us the system is still going to undergo dampening which would probably result in a place like Easton seeing way more snow than NYC because you are likely going to lose lift/forcing as this goes more east.
  14. SnowGoose69
    The 2nd or 3rd system is probably the one to watch...the 1st really dampens and strings out on most guidance...it could still change but that is not going to be a huge storm by any means I don't think
  15. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I feel people in DC are getting too happy about this event given there is an SER...this is not 2/6/2010, even if there is blocking in place. Its gonna be next to impossible to see a significant snow event that stays PHL south with the degree of SER we see (and lets face it, its ALWAYS underdone the last few years at this range). I think this could easily be a setup where even this region goes snow to rain
  16. SnowGoose69
    This feels like a 2/8-2/11/94 sort of event...it has potential to be a rare SWFE type setup where the metro is mostly snow or at least all frozen.
  17. SnowGoose69
    I believe shortening wavelength as we progress through Feb would make that link up less likely to occur but I'm not sure on that.
  18. SnowGoose69
    I think some snow may occur the next 10-14 days but the odds of something big are low. If it happens it'll be some type of February 94ish event probably. I don't think in this pattern we are going to get a classic KU or even a big coastal.
  19. SnowGoose69
    I'm beginning to think we need another 82-83/97-98/15-16 Nino to change this
  20. SnowGoose69
    In that setup the block would have to be much further SW. that’s not necessarily an east based -NAO but it’s too east based for the pattern over the US. Also that piece over the northern plains might phase in to an extent. It might work out for New England but not the MA.
  21. SnowGoose69
    I would not be surprised if this is just a repeat of the weeklies from the last 2 winters. They want to keep bringing in the ENSO pattern and it never will happen
  22. SnowGoose69
    Yes and no. Its had trouble resolving the blocking pattern and pattern shift about the same...it does not have ensembles so I could not see those but its Op runs were pretty regularly trying to crank southeast ridging and cutting storms 7-10 days ago and look where we are now. Its still occasionally trying to do it. Its best improvement is it has less of a near term cold bias it seems.
  23. SnowGoose69
    Its probably 2 weeks too fast with it. My hunch is this pattern will go til 2/1-2/5 before there is any chance of a flip
  24. SnowGoose69
    I think it technically nailed 2/8/13 before any other guidance so 2023 might be the next coup
  25. SnowGoose69
    The GFS finally resolved not having the SER now its the only model that next Wed-Fri wants to pull a pre torch ahead of the PV drop...it'll end up wrong on that too
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