SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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EWR had 1.7 but the UHI is bigger in these events there, that said they also had a bit more QPF from that burst at 9-10pm and probably got 0.2-0.3 more from that. I think if you factor in colder at NYC with maybe a tad less QPF they might have underdone it by 0.3 or so. I could see it being 2.1-2 but the problem is the compaction is always a factor when it stops snowing 3 hours before the 6 hourly obs
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I’d say central part of midtown it’s about a 70-30 snow sleet split. The VIS has largely been 1-2 miles as a result vs the 1/2 to 3/4 we’d normally have under these echoes
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NYC needs a miracle now to probably not end up falling to 2nd or 3rd least snowiest tonight
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I think you could see up to 4. Not sure i would confidently say that but just not sure how much sleet is a factor
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yeah this is a strange case where the air mass got better as you got east closer to the departing high
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I still have some concerns the front running system is going to mess this storm up to some degree...it may just take another 24-36 hours til the models begin seeing it
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There will almost certainly be front end snows with this, even at the coast with the high where it is located. Winds would probably be NE ahead of it and we'd funnel in fairly dry air but it would flip after 1 inch at best as currently depicted.
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Even if they see 0 today they probably see something with the storm in 5 days...I think at this stage even staying top 5 will be tough to pull off, even 4 inches between both storms nearly takes them out of that
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Some meso guidance is fairly bullish...the 00z HREF mean which was very good last winter but IMO has not been as good across the Midwest/Lakes/NE this winter has a mean of 5 at LGA and 3 at JFK with maxes of 7 and 6 respectively but a 25 mile shift would be 2/1 and 3/2 respectively. I was still surprised to see how aggressive that mean was though.
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The GFS as usual is missing the fact that even if its track is correct we will see snow even to the coast for awhile to start. I am still concerned about the system prior to this flattening things enough that the people in the far north camp might be disappointed in the end but its also not gonna be a DCA event either
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The NAM however is probably majorly busting on the start time which could impact things...I highly doubt its not snowing by 01Z and it may even be earlier than that...the NAM does not have the slow bias it once did but it still does tend to be 1-2 hours too slow.
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I am just blown away by how insanely cold the Euro soundings are for LGA...even with a 1C error which is standard to assume even today with models with SW-W flow aloft in a WAA event it would still be all snow but I feel the last few years the Euro blows these events almost all the time...the only one it nailed was 11/2018 and that made sense since it was a classic S-N mover with the high over Maine
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Yeah we're gonna need one of those rare cases where the 3km NAM severely busts inside of 18 hours which I feel about 1 of every 5 of these sort of events it does...it had 2 events last winter where it respectively showed a torch and a freezer and it was totally wrong both times
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The CIPS analogs showed 1/6/89 and 2/21/05 as analogs but both of those setups were better for us than this is. You did not have as strong a primary and air mass in place was better. For somewhere like BDL its possible they are closer to those sort of events
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The system from 90-108 is likely going to impact things too...that is likely to be more an issue than many think...we've had issues this winter before where a proceeding system has impacted the ensuing one
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I think everyone but probably NYC east is under one, that may be due to fact nothing much has happened this year somewhat. But I think you may see Bronx and all NJ counties from Hudson west issued a WWA
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Its a combo of confluence but also the CMC has a much more potent S/W over the Pac NW which might be not allowing the system to amplify as much over the Plains. the GFS is way weaker with that system over the NW
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The system that crosses the MA and SNE area 90-108 hours is likely to have an impact on heights and subsequently this event...not sure models are not going to really see that for another 72 hours
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The HRRR always misses mid level warmth beyond 12-18 or so. My concern here is the ESE flow, the fact the event comes in at 6pm vs 6am so you get all that solar heating through the clouds. You may be 42/22 at JFK when this begins easily and start as RASN before wet bulbing and going all snow. I think we need a really good shot at moderate snow in the first 2-3 hours otherwise it'll end up with 1-2 at best near the coast.
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The system at 90-108 is absolutely going to have an impact on where this storm goes
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Anything with WAA/overrunning mechanisms models will be all over the place...there will probably be a location somewhere that gets absolutely dumped on with a mesoscale band and if you look at the models its likely to be right at the beginning in the first 3 hours.
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The NAM has really been bad this winter...really the RGEM/CMC has probably been the best model overall...at this range though both will generally not correctly see mid level warmth...you really have to be inside 30 hours before you have any good idea. I am not sure I see this is a system though with a monstrous area of WAA/sleet because its dampening to a degree as it approaches. I think you're more likely to just have a narrow 10-20 mile area of SNPL or PL somewhere in the transition zone
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The front running system from 96-108 IMO is what makes it more likely a Euro type solution happens vs GFS
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As forky said you don't want it to fizzle too much because you doubly can get screwed if it does...one you get less QPF but a weaker system causes more E-SE gradient. Right now you start SE but the dvlpmt of the sfc low to the SE of us kinks the gradient and it gets CAD like and we go from 090 to 030-050 and hold low level cold air in. A weaker approaching system basically wave trains the whole thing downstream and you'd be 34-35 with light snow.
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Sort of but the ICON and GGEM made notable shifts north. Its simply too far out at this point though
