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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I'd take the CMC idea from 48-54...it would probably be mostly snow in the city despite what it shows if that unfolded. the 700mb temps of -11 to -12C are colder than the magic number often used to determine if in a scenario you're trying to cool the airmass in a CCB scenario you want to see -10C or colder at 700 to be confident you're going to get down to 33-34 or less at the surface...this is a rule some older mets have used
  2. SnowGoose69
    This is such a wildly convoluted set up I probably wouldn’t trust anything at the moment. Chances are you can throw out the NAM GFS and probably just mix the euro and the Canadian but as we saw on the 6z RGEM it barely even has any snow in Boston. the problem is the RGM is a fairly lousy model past 48 too with a set up such as this. It can do well with simple systems beyond 48 but when it comes to convoluted phases and coastal systems with phasing and captures it can be pretty terrible past 48.
  3. SnowGoose69
    I'd be fairly scared if I was them about going big at all with snow right now near the coast but I'd probably at least cover with 1-2 inches possibly for now
  4. SnowGoose69
    The UKIE made like 3 attempts to go full GFS in the 18 hours prior to it fully consolidating. You can see not just the GFS is struggling with the evolution of this
  5. SnowGoose69
    It was sort of 00Z NAM/GFSish at 12Z...it tried to do it again but did it less and consolidated better which is what made the difference
  6. SnowGoose69
    We've seen double barreled setups before with these E coast storms but not in setups such as this
  7. SnowGoose69
    As we saw on 2/8/13 you can get pretty big snows with the surface low way east if you have completed the entire capture and phase...NYC was snowing heavily at 06Z that night with the SFC low way east. I would not exactly expect that we are going to get that scenario though http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2013/us0209.php
  8. SnowGoose69
    The problem we have is even the Euro is way too warm at 925 for most of the event as was posted in the SNE forum (you can see maps there on recent pages) you'd basically not snow here til roughly 78 hours or so. No question the more SRN stream this trends the more likely we see big snows here. You might see models move hard one way or the other at 12 or 00Z today now that everything is onshore
  9. SnowGoose69
    This setup is probably too convoluted for the NAM to get it right at this range.
  10. SnowGoose69
    The Euro could definitely be wrong trying to be too SRN stream involved for sure...its done that before when the CMC/GFS are trying to say the NRN stream will be more of an issue
  11. SnowGoose69
    Its just way more southern stream involved but the general tendency is GFS better with NRN stream/EC better with southern...not sure which is right but no question Euro is sort of on its own right now
  12. SnowGoose69
    Actually most storms its occurred before that lol. There has been ticks that have gone bad inside Day 5 but in general this winter models have sort of locked onto a general idea at Day 6 or 7 then held it from there. We've lost like 5 storms to cutters at 130-150 that never came back but ultimately maybe shifted 75-100 miles which impacted places like Buffalo or Detroit but one of us cared
  13. SnowGoose69
    If its raining in NYC with that thickness and low position then I am officially declaring myself God
  14. SnowGoose69
    We dry slotted more or less...we were cold enough
  15. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I have no concerns about the air mass with this unless it basically just tracks so far east it misses but if this thing goes up over SNE its likely going to snow everywhere
  16. SnowGoose69
    This one won't really have an issue at all if it tracks where the Euro/ICON for example have it going...we have a decent cold source to pull down. I think this system is gonna bomb, its just a question if it just goes way too far west but I do not expect lack of dynamics to be a likely issue with this one
  17. SnowGoose69
    snowman has semi joked about this all winter but reality is this rule can sometimes still work...we've yet to see a case yet where the GFS was trying to go to the fish and the other guidance was all a decent hit overall at Day 4-5...this really is the first case where as a whole the GFS is where you want it at this range or at least most runs has been
  18. SnowGoose69
    This is a rare case where NYC can do better than SNE if the storm takes the right track...it would be fitting in this winter to see something odd like that happen
  19. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR is usually too cold at this range but the good news is it does show the meat of the heaviest QPF being over the area...if that verifies we have a shot but these things will tend to end up more NE in time. I'd like being probably in SW CT at this point in time
  20. SnowGoose69
    Thermals on even the high res guidance are pretty poor here. I'd be fairly surprised if anything measurable fell in the metro itself UNLESS the axis of the IT feature ends up dead over the top and you could probably drop 2-3 wet inches of snow before by 9am it melted
  21. SnowGoose69
    The NAM sort of shows what can happen if the system does not occlude at a crazy fast rate...if you ran that thing to 96 it would be insane probably. I do wonder if maybe globals are attempting to occlude this too quickly upon the transfer and redevelopment. Even the RGEM does not seem to do it by 84, its just simply way way south
  22. SnowGoose69
    This is a case where you just need things to be perfect where the transfer is late enough that the system bombs in the right spot and it does not occlude too ast
  23. SnowGoose69
    Its cold enough probably so long as we don't see it track way north like the NAM is showing
  24. SnowGoose69
    Nothing else is quite as far S with the track of storm 1 as the Euro was, the CMC does sort of lean that way...the 06Z Icon did move south somewhat, the NAM continues to be way north
  25. SnowGoose69
    Bradford PA has had .36 liquid in 2 hours...probably only 3.2 inches of snow or snow with the ratios but this thing is potent in N PA
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