SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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My first thought when I read this was 12/4/91 or the 1/16/92 bust but this one I don't remember.
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The 12/26/93 storm was miserably and I mean miserably handled by NOAA/local mets etc. They completely abandoned ship off a slight shift east in the 12Z guidance that morning despite the fact by noon the radar along the DE/MD coast was clearly west of the 12Z models. I think all warnings outside Suffolk got dropped and by 3-4pm it was obvious the snow was coming straight up the coast. They ended up having to put advisories back up by 7-8pm.
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That was dangerously close to being a catastrophe of a bust. The system started sliding more east than expected and nearly ending up missing a good part of the area. I remember that evening around 6pm sitting at home thinking this is really going to bust isn’t it? It ultimately slid far enough east that most of northern Jersey didn’t see major snows
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The 5 boroughs of NYC were never under a winter storm watch one time from March 1996 til 12/29/00. That shows you how pathetic things were in regards to winter storms in that period. January 2000 because the storm snuck up on us at the last second they went straight from nothing to a winter storm warning otherwise the streak would have been 11 months shorter
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I’m not sure if that LE was correct though. It is pretty darn accurate today at Central Park but I don’t believe there was an ASOS there yet then they were using some sort of old school home weather system for readings from October 1993 til July 1996 when I think the ASOS was put in so very possible that reading was erroneous
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There was some pretty nasty dry slotting from about NYC to Nassau for a time. Quite a few places there saw only 16-22 inches or so. I want to say BDR only reported 17-18. We’ve definitely had some oddball measurements over the years at the airports and NYC. That Newark measurement on 2/11/94 I think most agree was wrong. NYC’s measurement on 1/22/87 I had an NWS Met tell me 18-20 years ago they KNOW was wrong. Recently we obviously have some real awful ones but even before 2000 we saw occasional sloppy reporting
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78 was forecast remarkably well for the time though the amounts weren’t. The LFM was the model which nailed it as it also did the 89 Thanksgiving storm which the other models mostly discounted. 78 was quickly setback though when the models blew the 1983 storm north of Philly. In fairness there wasn’t much computer advancement in those 5 years though. 1983 was somewhat of a benchmark though in that when the 00Z models ran that evening they shifted the entire storm well north and caught onto what was going on. At the time that was one of the first cases of the models ever doing that
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At the time it was the first case ever of a major storm being modeled that far in advance. Once we got to 96-120 every model had it including the UKMET. Forecasting was still pretty bad in 1993. It improved significantly in the ensuing 3-5 years as a result of the Euro being more widely used as well as the ETA being worlds better than the LFM/NGM.
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Similar bust on part 1 to the December 2003 storm. Difference was part 1 of the 12/03 storm busted on temps while the first part of the January 2011 storm busted on QPF that no models saw. The 2nd part of that December 2003 storm though majorly disappointed. The mid levels sort of torched between part 1 and part 2 and the coastal wasn’t deep enough so snow growth was lousy and the CCB was spotty leading to two mega bands over ERN NJ near EWR and another near central LI. In between most places saw 3-5 inches, if that. The CCB in part 2 of January 2011 rivaled April 82/February 83. It was just insane snow rates and a gravity wave may have played a part too much like it did in February 83 and January 04
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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion
SnowGoose69 replied to JoMo's topic in Central/Western States
I remember being there for the January 2010 storm and we were about 1-2 hours away from disaster and repeating 2007. Thankfully right as we were nearing it we flipped to sleet and avoided another mess. I think we got about 3/4 inch of ice between about 10am-1pm before we went over to sleet. Got 6-7, inches of snow the next day which was mostly unforecast outside of Mike Morgan who either got lucky or saw something nobody else did -
MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion
SnowGoose69 replied to JoMo's topic in Central/Western States
18Z RGEM metogram has .70 snow for OKC -
LOL is that 20 inches in Little Rock?
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I definitely see potential in ATL Monday if the 12Z verified as shown (which it likely won't). There is a weak surface reflection off SAV along with the upper low coming across. Often times a weak surface reflection like that is all it takes to crank more moisture in than expected. I regularly saw that burn forecasters in OK often if you got a weak low to form in SE TX.
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That is more due to the ULL feature not developing as well. I would not expect that to translate downstream assuming the surface low and WAA is decent
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I remember that event because it was so easy to forecast for ATL bexause the wedge was so massive. There was zero doubt as to if it would get there. As it turned out it was so strong they saw mostly PL instead of FZRA
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They’re usually only highly accurate in scenarios where you’re locked into a 10 to 1 or more event with no mixing and you’re comfortably below freezing through the event.
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You usually can tell on soundings before models pick it up. If you have WSW or SW flow over 30kts in the 700-850 layer anywhere and aren’t at least -2C or colder it’s generally verifying above 0 in the end
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ATL continues to survive by a nose. AHN looks in trouble though
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The NAM seems to be playing hard what the main issue is with this event since the beginning. The high timing is 24 hours late for wedging and is generally too far north to ensure a true southern frozen event. If this system was 24 hours slower this is a massive winter storm down to Macon and most of NC is likely snow. If the high is 200 miles south this is all snow for most of northern AL and GA and north
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It’s still too early to know if this south push is a long term move. We’ve seen this occur before around this 3-4 day range and then as soon as everything comes ashore and is sampled the models pull a 180 one way or another and never move back
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If I remember right the UKMET runs warm on wedge events at this range so odds are you can pull that ice further southwest if that solution verified
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I think there will be major ice down to areas NE of ATL. I’m not sure if it makes it into the Metro at all. Especially given it would have to occur mid way through the event. Most icing events in ATL are from the start of the precip or not at all
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The bigger concern would probably be that ATL might be in bigger trouble than anyone initially thought. The fact the Euro wants to push snow that far into Georgia gives me doubts that freezing temps don’t reach down there. Right now not one forecasting outlet is giving more than a remote chance it does
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The high is too far north for those sorts of totals into GA and SC. That would at best be mostly sleet there. Think January 88. It was a flatter setup than this was or at least a weaker low, later in the season and still most of NRN AL and GA saw sleet. This probably is north of the 12Z Euro in the end but even if that verifies dead on those places south of the TN-Spartanburg line are likely sleet. Atlanta might even be rain
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The wedge appears to me to build in way too late for them. I could be wrong but simply looking at timing it seems they’d precipitate for too long prior to the wedging so it would be 35-38 and rain. It’s still very far out though.
