wdrag

I look back at these sensor wind gusts... Just seemed to me much more power outages, normally associated with somewhat higher gusts. Need a study of wind gusts with soil moisture, leaf status, direction (east vs nw or w)

From Mt Holly for nearby NJ/PA ...Hunterdon County... Readington 40 MPH 0154 PM 10/31 AWOS ...Mercer County... Trenton 48 MPH 0515 PM 10/31 ASOS ...Middlesex County... Perth Amboy 46 MPH 0109 PM 10/31 WXFLOW ...Monmouth County... 1.0 NW Keansburg 47 MPH 1257 PM 10/31 HADS Sea Girt 44 MPH 1150 AM 10/31 NJWXNET SEA BRIGHT 43 MPH 1240 PM 10/31 CWOP Monmouth 43 MPH 0203 PM 10/31 WXFLOW Cream Ridge 41 MPH 0150 PM 10/31 NJWXNET Belmar Farmdale 40 MPH 0308 PM 10/31 AWOS ...Morris County... Denville 53 MPH 0303 PM 10/31 CWOP Morristown 44 MPH 0255 PM 10/31 AWOS ...Ocean County... Mantoloking 50 MPH 0316 PM 10/31 WXFLOW Harvey Cedars 48 MPH 0335 PM 10/31 NJWXNET Beach Haven 46 MPH 0111 PM 10/31 CWOP Trixies 45 MPH 1220 PM 10/31 WXFLOW Rutgers 44 MPH 0142 PM 10/31 WXFLOW Toms River 43 MPH 1122 AM 10/31 AWOS Seaside Heights 42 MPH 1223 PM 10/31 WXFLOW Seaside Heights 42 MPH 0310 PM 10/31 NJWXNET North Beach Haven 42 MPH 0515 PM 10/31 CWOP Tuckerton 41 MPH 0326 PM 10/31 WXFLOW ...Sussex County... High Point Monument 41 MPH 0305 PM 10/31 NJWXNET ...Pennsylvania... ...Berks County... LENHARTSVILLE 51 MPH 0530 PM 10/31 CWOP Reading 44 MPH 0407 PM 10/31 ASOS ...Bucks County... Doylestown 44 MPH 0132 PM 10/31 ASOS Burlington NOS 42 MPH 0330 PM 10/31 NOS-PORTS Newbold NOS 40 MPH 1212 PM 10/31 NOS-PORTS ...Chester County... WEST BRANDYWINE 47 MPH 1036 AM 10/31 CWOP White Clay Creek West Grove- 47 MPH 0140 PM 10/31 DEOS2 West Chester 41 MPH 0320 PM 10/31 AWOS ...Lehigh County... Lehigh Valley Intl Airport 43 MPH 0452 PM 10/31 ASOS ...Monroe County... Mt. Pocono 46 MPH 0459 PM 10/31 ASOS

524 NOUS41 KOKX 010137 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 011345- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 937 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2025 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS TODAY... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Bridgeport Airport 44 MPH 0229 PM 10/31 ASOS Danbury Airport 41 MPH 1120 AM 10/31 ASOS ...New Haven County... Lighthouse Point 45 MPH 0311 PM 10/31 WXFLOW Stony Creek 40 MPH 0330 PM 10/31 CWOP ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Teterboro Airport 46 MPH 0315 PM 10/31 ASOS ...Essex County... Caldwell 47 MPH 0130 PM 10/31 ASOS ...Hudson County... Bayonne 40 MPH 0122 PM 10/31 WXFLOW ...Union County... Newark Airport 53 MPH 0339 PM 10/31 ASOS Linden Airport 43 MPH 0155 PM 10/31 AWOS ...New York... ...Bronx County... Fordham 47 MPH 0355 PM 10/31 NYSM ...Kings County... Brooklyn College 48 MPH 0340 PM 10/31 NYSM South Slope 47 MPH 0347 PM 10/31 CWOP ...Nassau County... Bayville 52 MPH 0356 PM 10/31 WXFLOW Wantagh 47 MPH 0355 PM 10/31 NYSM 1 ESE Long Beach 42 MPH 1030 AM 10/31 AWS Massapequa 41 MPH 0334 PM 10/31 CWOP 0.8 NW Uniondale 40 MPH 0230 PM 10/31 MESOWEST ...New York (Manhattan) County... Midtown Manhattan 40 MPH 0200 PM 10/31 NYSM ...Orange County... Montgomery Airport 46 MPH 0246 PM 10/31 AWOS Warwick 42 MPH 0405 PM 10/31 NYSM Stewart Airport 40 MPH 0345 PM 10/31 AWOS ...Queens County... NYC/JFK Airport 49 MPH 0315 PM 10/31 ASOS NYC/La Guardia 47 MPH 0331 PM 10/31 ASOS Kew Garden Hills 47 MPH 0340 PM 10/31 NYSM Breezy Point 41 MPH 0352 PM 10/31 WXFLOW ...Richmond County... 2 SE Elizabeth 49 MPH 0330 PM 10/31 NDBC College of Staten Island 46 MPH 0140 PM 10/31 NYSM ...Rockland County... Suffern 42 MPH 0320 PM 10/31 NYSM ...Suffolk County... Montauk 58 MPH 0823 PM 10/31 ASOS Stony Brook 57 MPH 0248 PM 10/31 CWOP Great Gull Island 53 MPH 0353 PM 10/31 WXFLOW Fair Harbor 51 MPH 0239 PM 10/31 CWOP Eatons Neck 50 MPH 0233 PM 10/31 WXFLOW Westhampton Airport 48 MPH 0332 PM 10/31 ASOS Fishers Island Airport 46 MPH 1238 PM 10/31 WXFLOW Islip Airport 46 MPH 0248 PM 10/31 ASOS Orient 46 MPH 0405 PM 10/31 CWOP Farmingdale Airport 45 MPH 0227 PM 10/31 ASOS Fire Island CG 45 MPH 0335 PM 10/31 WXFLOW Southold 45 MPH 0345 PM 10/31 CWOP East Moriches CG 44 MPH 1105 AM 10/31 WXFLOW Shirley Airport 44 MPH 0318 PM 10/31 ASOS West Gilgo Beach 43 MPH 0410 PM 10/31 CWOP Baiting Hollow 43 MPH 0410 PM 10/31 CWOP Brookhaven 41 MPH 0245 PM 10/31 CWOP Blue Point 40 MPH 0300 PM 10/31 WXFLOW ...Westchester County... Tappan Zee Light 14 40 MPH 0234 PM 10/31 WXFLOW White Plains Airport 40 MPH 0302 PM 10/31 ASOS ...Maritime Stations... ...Connecticut... Stongington Outer Breakwater 50 MPH 1207 PM 10/31 WXFLOW 1 ESE Norwalk 44 MPH 0237 PM 10/31 WXFLOW ...New Jersey... Jersey City 55 MPH 0218 PM 10/31 CWOP ...New York... Robbins Reef, NJ 52 MPH 0330 PM 10/31 NOS-PORTS Shinnecock 50 MPH 1120 AM 10/31 WXFLOW 26 SSE Robert Moses State Pa 49 MPH 0220 PM 10/31 NDBC Kings Point 46 MPH 0400 PM 10/31 NOS-NWLON 15 S Atlantic Beach 45 MPH 0230 PM 10/31 NDBC Point O Woods YC 45 MPH 0347 PM 10/31 WXFLOW Northport 43 MPH 0215 PM 10/31 DAVIS Larchmont Harbor 43 MPH 0357 PM 10/31 WXFLOW Fire Island CG 42 MPH 0336 PM 10/31 WXFLOW &&

Added the monthly outlook update from Oct 31 to the topic. Canadian block gone now for at least a couple weeks so maybe the extreme potential down here is reduced til later Nov? Fast flow USA/Candian border suggesting frequent gusty CFP's next 10 days. Attached snowfall in Old Forge NY this Nov 1 morning, just to whet your CP appetite. I hope we get more than a half inch this winter in the park.

ALL OKX climate OCT sites above normal except CP min about 0.3". Recovered much of the monthly rainfall in 24 hours.

Much more extensive and longer lasting than anticipated here in NYS/nw NJ... had a 3.75 hr outage at 210A today.

Intensity skews the Ambient too high... Light rain usually very close but when it gets intense, the automated gage runs too high. At least it rained

Yes criteria gusts at many of the ASOS's 40-43 kt as of 3PM ish. Conversion factors on the 06z models except ECMWF were too weak. Multi NWS office Wind Advisory verifies! Power outages today, almost twice that of yesterday-see below. We've had a brief outage in Wantage NJ. Most of the branches I've seen down in Sussex County from Wantage, Andover-Hopatcong are the 1-2" dead ones but one larger in Hopatcong was being removed around 130PM. Outages by StateOutages by Utility New Jersey20,356 New York18,472 Pennsylvania17,100

Branches down SC NJ

Summary message: I could not go back to review the OHP between 16z-20z/30 for the unfortunate fatalities related to only very short fuse prediction of 1" in 15 minutes over NYC... results as cellar fatalities, again, as in prior city FF. That's the part that didnt work out in the thread. Otherwise see graphics below 1) CPC D8 1"+ heavy rain forecast (MDT risk) 2) CoCoRaHs region red and orange dot verification of the main axis of heavy rain (see legend) 3) NYC subforum rainfall 4) EPS 06z/31 5H... note negative tilt lobe to NJ 5) EPS 18z/30 12 hr 170M HFC over NJ... large 12 hr HFC's need to be contended with as event concerns...given adequate moisture. You can use these graphics to go back to p1 of this thread to verify the Sunday 10/26 post. Modeling was helpful for sure. GEFS rainfall and max gusts were terrible as compared to the EPS and EPSAI modeling.

Wantage NJ--- this part of, only 1.10.

All comments agreed... I am a little leery of the sounding but I erred on the side of caution mainly cause of EPS wind gusts and wet ground. Sometimes the EPS is 5 MPH too high and concerned the 12z HRRR itself as well as 06z NAM just not quite there. 06z FOUS BL wind 26 KT at KLGA which is just below my criteria for alerting wind advisory. 1 knot below is possible modeling error so it can happen but if it doesn't, then many models had us just below. anyway, caution advised this afternoon and a beneficial call.

NWS posted yesterday afternoon... its sort of marginal so I waited. Still looks marginal to me but err on the safety and will await your reports. I'll be offline til 9PM tonight. I am finishing up a summary post for yesterdays beneficial rain. It should. be out in 15 minutes.

I just checked the 06z/31 NAM/3K NAM, RAP and RRFS and all do not have max wind gusts 45+. So we should look back on model performance later today.

I just checked the 09z/31 HRRR and it doesn't forecast 45+ MPH for our area today except ridges/water. Maintain NWS messaging. I do think there will be a few gusts 40-44kt (46MPH+) so the conservative guidance is that... I can live with the 00z/31 SPC HREF MIN gust tool and the EPS MAX Gust tool.

I'll have a wrap up post around 930A inclusive of two day CoCoRaHs and one or two other graphics regarding predictability (the 1+"/ 30 min rainfall was not predictable in my opinion except short fuse warning).

If a moderator can pin the new thread topic. Thank you. Guidance has us marginal wind advisory criteria... my greatest concern is fully leaved trees in the rain softened ground toppling (after yesterdays wide spread 1.5-2.5" rainfall. OBS for Halloween 2025 afternoon-evening scattered gusts 45+MPH w a few damage power outage reports from limbs/trees down

Follow and. further NWS updated advisory statements and possible police detours. Now that yesterdays has passed, backside wind gusts will be increasing to 40 MPH throughout the area this afternoon, with scattered or isolated gusts to 50 MPH breaking a few tree limbs and even causing rain softened ground to permit fully leaved trees to possibly topple. This would be life threatening to those unfortunately in the path of limbs breaking. Be aware of possible detours and delays this afternoon-evening. Air travel continues to be impacted, especially Noon to near midnight with certainly delays, and probably some cancels. Using the 00z/31 EPS max wind gust tool, max gusts are anticipated to be 45-50 MPH with the SPC HREF Fire MINIMUM wind gust tool offering at a minimum, near 40MPH gusts on land, except 50 MPH one the ridges and of course on the water. I do not have access to other sounding wind gust tools. 714A/31

Another band of showers, some very briefly mdt-havy for NNJ-NYC NYS this eve as the 5H sort-trough axis and about 150M 12 hr Height Fall Center axis passes through, then the sfc wind turns west and drying begins with gusts 40 MPH tomorrow afternoon ,. As of now not planning a new thread for marginal wind alone tomorrow. I think today will have equaled or exceeded what ever tomorrow brings.

Sandy Hook briefly leveled at Moderate flood level 7.7' MLLW a few minutes ago. a 3' surge due to lowered pressure and timing of max gust 50 MPH inflow.

NOT overperforming... performing very close as modeled 5-6 days ago.

Rainfall 1-2" in NJ except Sussex County and a few spots on the coast 3/4-1". NYC around 0.8 so far except about 1.5 Staten Island.

I will post a general modeling summary after this event is over going back to the original guidance available Sunday and from CPC a week ago. Initial lessons: GFS max wind gusts too light with EC and NAM gusts better. Let's remember for the future on easterly wind events.

Max gust on NYS mesonet sites about 5-8 MPH less than ASOS max gusts. Officially minor flood at Sandy Hook. FS 6.7". they are at 7.15 bobbing around and may go up and bother 0.3' through there high tide cycle now. Attached... Also 10-13,000 meters without power now in all three states of NJ, NY, PA. Wind related.

Widespread Gusts on ASOS NYC metro airports 40-46 KT past couple of hours.