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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    So what I'm following in the modeling this weekend and to whatever it is or isn't early next week. Attached 48 HRRR satellite and gust prediction--a model individual cycle snapshot for 18z Saturday Oct 30. Gusts probably 10 MPH too high at 48 hours but worthy of monitoring?
  2. wdrag
    So this is what I'm going to follow in the tropical discussion as this gale center possibly transitions in its se-s motion away from us Sunday. It's modeling and the HRRR could be 10 MPH too high on its 48 hour 65 MPH gust prediction for early Saturday afternoon but with showers there... I wouldn't want to be sailing. NOT smart, imo. 18z Saturday satellite simulation from the 18z/28 HRRR and its gust prediction well south of LI/RI
  3. wdrag
    Smattering of 0.01-.02 se NYS and NJ so far since midday including Wantage NJ. Global models not changing too much on amounts...general 1-3 spot 4. Blend of Models, 13z/28 version, finally hammered NYC/e NJ etc with 4-7" but this takes into account the the mesoscale models. Those mesoscale continue bullish, though I think shifting east to favor more LI/CT, NYC/Hud River and extreme e NJ... their amounts seem so high for a cooler surface temp/dewpoint. My guess is the RRFS is too far west with BOM near NYC and the HRRR SPC HREF more CT/LI eastern NJ/NYC seem to me more probable, at least at this juncture, but could still shift a bit. I added SPC HREF chance of 3" in 6 hrs ending 18z/29 (grey-20% chance), and its overall 48 hour mean and max. These are big numbers... but for me disturbing that the globals including SREF are considerably less. Click for clarity.
  4. wdrag
    NON TS expert comment. Just using guidance. Will review much more closely on the 29th when our low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast is becoming better defined. All I see on FSU multi global model phase diagrams(00z/28) is opportunity to become a warmer core by Oct 1, with track Oct 1 onward having opportunity to drift south to southwest but still well off the Carolinas. For now it's nothing and good to keep a lid on what I see is as a meandering potential tropical system early next week off the se USA coast. If this does happen, then it eventually picks up in a NNE track by the 7th. Still of interest for me...but thinking will know much more late Friday on it's potential evolution to a warmer core. Just need to monitor. 8A/28.
  5. wdrag
    I'll add my 2c at 5P... suggest mowing completed today. You may not like your soggy ground even on a rain free Sunday I84 corridor southward NJ-seNYS-SNE-LI. My guess is that NWS is waiting on any FFA because the GEFS/SREF/NAEFS are much more conservative than the GEPS-EPS 2-4" event and as you've all posted the iso 7" on highly resolved mesoscale guidance. Also, NWS may be holding off due to no ensemble guidance showing minor flooding which is because these river forecasts use the ensemble output which seems to me wayyy too low. More at 5P after mowing.
  6. wdrag
    I think our WFO's tend to stay close to WPC beyond 12 hours... one NWS voice. They also had the conservative GEFS on their low side. Just saw the 18z EC OP... continues bullish-attached. Uncertainty with RRFS/NAM tending more NYS or west of NYC, while EC is definitely east of RRFS. Time to iron this out and also figure the confidence of seeing any 6's. NWS Blend of Models also much less than EC/EPS, GEPS, RRFS/NAM. Walt
  7. wdrag
    Periods of rain, some of it heavy at times is destined for most of the NYC subforum Friday-Saturday as low pressure develops off the mid Atlantic coast into a vertically deep slow moving cyclone. PW increases at times to near 1.7" in warm advection along the inverted trough Friday then the pinwheeling PWAT circles back around our area Saturday. Gusty northeast-east winds Friday morning to 35 MPH and the constancy of northeast flow this week at the time of the highest tides in Sept should yield at least minor coastal Flooding within 2 hours of high tides Friday and possibly moderate coastal flooding at the highest tide cycle Saturday or Sunday as the backwash of the offshore storm shoots some 45 MPH north-northeast winds down the NJ coast by Sunday morning. The previous 3-4 day rains are attached, and the numbers for this coming one may exceed 6" again in parts of the NYC subforum. If so, where? It's possible, despite all this projected rain, that flooding might be imited to a few small areas. Too early to be sure as of 447PM/27. The EPS has been most aggressive with this system since 9/24 cycles and the 12z/27 EPS mean rainfall is attached. These values are quite high and much higher than the GEFS 12z/27 cycle with the GEPS midway between. If it causes fresh water flooding---where? Not sure this will be very much freshwater flooding except possibly NJ/CT/urban LI. This topic should serve also for the rainfall reports. at 505PM added the tag power outages. If this rainfall develops per the more aggressive 12z/27 EPS mean, rain softened ground from this past weekend combined with new 2+" rainfall may allow spotty power outages due to tree uproots of still fully leaved trees.
  8. wdrag
    Have waited this out and so as a NON-expert in tropical storm genesis... but using extra tropical ensemble upper air guidance and the surface response off the mid-Atlantic coast late this week, I think we'll see a significant low roughly 37/72 by 12z/30, meander east-then south or south-southwest in the following days and go through a phase change over the warmer SST's between Oct 1-3. I'll leave it at that since I'm not an expert but I think the western Atlantic is interesting, not only from the cold core development 29th-30th, then thereafter the possible evolution the first week of October. Just looks to me like the door is open off the southeast-mid Atlantic coast first week of October. I don't know how the currently modeled tropical systems south central Atlantic play into this.
  9. wdrag
    I agree: I can get this going at 5PM, pending 12z cycle. I see the 06z/NAM has gotten back on track... probably too far west but at least its sending pockets of heavy rain northward into the NYC subforum. The 06z RGEM continues on track with its 00z/27 predecessor and from what I can tell...combined with the persistent EPS (EC op has been a little east), I think this is looking like coastal NJ/extreme se NYS/LI/CT-SNE storm where widespread 1-2" with iso 4 or 5 possibly ble. The 1/4 stuff I think is reserved for e PA/Catskills, I90 and maybe extreme nw NJ. Coastal flooding minor per NWS, but I'm thinking this evening and Wednesday evening and then potential worst of this last half of Sept, occurring Saturday mid morning high tide cycle (MDT), and possible ditto Sunday mid morning.
  10. wdrag
    Just re-running this post from 9/24. Other than the 00z/27 NAM, this looks to be correct for what seems like a pretty big event Friday in the NYC subforum, particularly se NYS/CT/LI/coastal NJ with a potential for mdt coastal flooding at the highest of the high tide cycles, as well widespread 1/4-3" of rain with isolated 5'? 00z/27 RDPS has 6". Best axis of max rainfall uncertain but it looks like PA/Catskills least likely for R+... nose of the inverted trough and organizing low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast the culprits. EPS from 18z/26 is even larger than what am showing from last Saturday. Also, it still seems to me that we're in general onshore flow here in the NYC subforum, especially NJ/LI through the first week of October, although I could see a day of north or north-northwest.
  11. wdrag
    3 day totals per the CoCoRahS sampling. Note the 5's and 6's in parts of the NYC subforum central coastal NJ, nw of Port Jervis NY, near POU and HFD. Then as many times, little as sampled near BDR. Most should be satisfied with the short term (NAM etc) QPF guidance and some of the LT (Canadian, EC and then the least...the GFS).
  12. wdrag
    Raining 0.03/hr here this part of Wantage (see TEWR) and passing 2.2 at 750 PM...much less than that which has occurred along the NYS border northward.
  13. wdrag
    More coming...maybe a stripe of 1/4-1/2" between now and Noon Tuesday parts of CT, LI, NJ. FFG has decreased to generally 1.5-2" in 6 hours se NYS, portions of interior CT and NNJ. So that won't improve- dry out for a while. Additionally at least two models (18z-GFS and 12z EC have spotty 2-3" the Night-Fri) at the nose of the inverted trough. Interesting through Friday for wind/rain/(coastal flood episodes at the higher of the daily high tide cycles in NJ) as well spotty minor river flooding CT/NYS. posted 634P/25
  14. wdrag
    2.12 at this Wantage NJ location at Noon today, which is less than my CoCoRaHs neighbors. I think more coming into Tuesday morning and then again Thursday or more likely Friday NJ/NYC/Li. Not counting on the GFS again late this week regarding its progressive look, as it did repeatedly for this past weekend. Does look a little interesting for the first week of October as well, but that is for another thread post later tonight or tomorrow. Coastal flooding of some sort seems to be on the books every day this week for NJ. Walt
  15. wdrag
    For your review in a CNN headline on-line today September 25, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/25/weather/el-nino-winter-us-climate/index.html I'd like to see all long rangers participating on American Weather, post their winter Outlooks (DJF) by 830AM October 19, 2023 when the NWS tends to release their official winter outlook--around that date. Below are excerpts from CNN as posted today: Gives us a chance to monitor strength of El Niño and possible impacts. I'm hoping Don Sutherland and others who normally participate on American Weather and/or other forums, and not necessarily locked into the NYC subforum, would be able to comment on the potential. Myself: I accept long ranging as less confidently reliable than our week one-two forecasts, but this science will gradually improve as more research and capabilities are applied.
  16. wdrag
    CoCoRaHs two day totals as also posted under Ophelia topic. Ignore the 13.31 typos in sw CT. Undoubted some 5+ on the southern and northwest edge of of the NYC subforum... so far.
  17. wdrag
    GEPS the only model on board for this significant additional coastal flood/rain event as GEFS has progressed seaward. EPS still an option but I haven't seen the 06z/25 EPS trend. For now, I keep this potential on the table as a likely event for NJ/LI southward. There is the option for a non event but what I'm seeing right now even in the GFS...daily minor coastal flooding NJ coast for the week, with a chance for a moderate Tuesday afternoon-evening high tide and this without the mid Atlantic low pressure at the end of the week.
  18. wdrag
    I did note no FFW's overnight... NWS win but imo, wasn't the best choice where modeling emphasized 3+" in 24 hours overnight. However, it is noted no big problems in that zone, to my knowledge as of 9A/25. Conservative wins on my awareness concern.
  19. wdrag
    Via CoCoRaHs climate two day storm totals as someone else said 1-5". The 13.31 in sw CT is obvious typo. Southern Ocean County NJ had a 5+ and undoubtedly with more coming into Tuesday morning, some of these amounts will go up. Many reports 3-4" overnight ne PA arced across just to the north of I84 in NYS-CT. Modeling by the GFS for this entire event was woeful... just not very good. Remember early NAM etc had 4" Hud Valley. Watch the NAM and RGEM for clues on modeling for the 28th-30th. More on that in the Sept thread.
  20. wdrag
    So tomorrow morning we'll know whether another small but significant FF event has occurred without a watch se NYS/extreme ne NJ. AWARENESS, especially nighttime is quite valuable and especially when modeling is giving an option of spot 4-6" up there. Sure looks like big delays tomorrow morning coming into NYC from NYS, maybe northern NJ too.
  21. wdrag
    More background... Ophelia leaves behind an impression at the surface, but a new short wave cutting across CHIcago 12z Wed, sort of gets absorbed into the remnant trough aloft off the mid Atlantic coast with subsequent building heights in southern Canada forcing the trough to become stronger and possibly sag west or southwest. Upwelling from recent Tropical systems still leaves behind 70+SST off the mid Atlantic coast, and with the system lingering over those 70+SST waters Oct 1... I could see this starting to transition to at least partial warm core, if not Sunday..maybe Monday or Tuesday. Hope this is of value. Don't like wasting time. I see 12z Modeling keeps this option open. Right now, it's further south than I anticipated. However, if this does go subtropical and lingers long enough over those waters, it eventually heads north or northeast. Anyway, I think it bears monitoring and I wouldn't put away the sand shovels yet along the waterfronts, nor leave my car parked near the break wall, thinking this weekend was the worst. Just don't know.
  22. wdrag
    Uncertainty but I think there will be substantial northeast-east isobaric gradient developing sometime in this time frame with tides starting out 1/2-3/4 foot higher than than that of current Ophelia impact. This combined with the continued daily constancy of onshore flow that began Sept 22 for NJ-DE-MD suggests to me increased beach erosion-coastal flooding """potential"""" beyond that of Ophelia Questions: If this low pressure system does form, can it muster subtropical characteristics and la-lo track of the center. Worthy of monitoring. Right now I can't grab anything from the FSU web site to check phase diagrams. I added the EPS 24 hr QPF ending Saturday morning suggesting something going on late this coming week.
  23. wdrag
    Adding this for a a late week tease by the EPS
  24. wdrag
    Started thread because of my concern for a higher impact sub tropical storm off the mid-Atlantic coast combining with tides 1/2-3/4 foot higher than what we saw for Ophelia this weekend of Sept 23rd-24th. Would compound damage from Ophelia, especially beach erosion with constancy of northeast wind from Sept 22 through probably October 3rd.
  25. wdrag
    Added the CPC October outlook as prepared Thursday Sept 21.
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