wdrag

fwiw...new 12z WPC qpf... similar to previous for Sunday. I do see all the discussion on suppression so will wait this out. Ensembles I think are best for now with the caution that the suppressed solution could win out. New D6 winter wx not available for a while.

For the 2m temps this far in advance suggest staying ensembles, which are all available in Trop Tidbits. All suggest above freezing to I80 in NJ and up to coastal CT. That mans the fringe temp transition near 33F is wet snow, provided cold enough above the BL. Just too far in advance except as pre prev ensemble posts and NBE. I would not count on much accum NYC... I can live with 1-3 for now.

I like the sloppy 1-3"LI/NYC... that definitely appears more likely to me since the 06Z/EPS while slightly less amplified, is faster and certainly permits qpf up here... Here's the EPS 850MB at 144 hours and the EPS snow depth change. Provided the EPS does not flatten out much from the 06z/1 cycle as we go into the event, then we'll do well. The 06z GEFS looks sharper...all modeling faster. My guess this is a Sat night-Sunday event. Click images for clarity. The 850 low is over Ches Bay at this 144 hr image.

Always concerned about how good it looks for snow this far out. The GEFS in the past 24 hours is showing a slightly sharpening of the causative short wave -- that still is troublingly far south. The EPS however (as opposed to the 00z/1 op we saw) is showing a negative tilt short wave and strengthening trend since 12 hours ago. It validates the ensemble chance of 3+ by the NWS shown in.darker green, and 4+ by the EPS, and note the blend of models (07z/1 version) for both storms. Things will change... I dont know how but there is little doubt in my mind that a 6+ axis will occur probably from the Virginias somewhere across PA. After that... I dont know. So the GEFS overall is the weakest in its ensembles. I think the 12z/2 modeling will be important, since by then global models will be pretty accurate on the upper air pattern with probably no major change in the 500MB after that. I95 eastward to the coast is my greatest area of uncertainty (ptype) as well as just north of I84 (northern fringe-suppression). Of interest is the likelihood that whatever wet snow occurs PA/NJ this c coming weekend, it gets washed away by next Wednesday the 10th. The rapid snowmelt and storm two qpf have me concerned about renewed flooding, all dependent on qpf at this stage. You dont want to see the BOM total qpf by 00z/11. It seems overall high but if occurred even 1" less, would mean river flooding compared to the more vigorous first event of a couple weeks. I just can't post it... it surprised me. Lets get storm one up here first. Also...coastal wind damage-power outage unknown risk for storm one DE/NJ/LI? and then storm two fairly extensive northeast USA around the 9th-10th? Power outages as well documented here is not an easy predictor but knowing of potential can be helpful. If interested, please click the image below for clarity.

Caution to the wind: 12z GEFS/CMCE decreased qpf for the first event... less snow and the concern about a little less QPF event 1 The EPS on the other hand (I dont worship it)... has come up quite a bit.A ppended 12z/31 24 hour prob 4" of snow (10 to 1 ratio)... pretty large prob but not 100%. Just have to live a good life til whatever happens.

Modeling: It's getting better if we can talk generalities a week in advance and be reasonably accurate. Still... two big storms within 3-4 days... not common around here, especially if snow. My caution is stick with ensembles. AND... please if you can... don't use 10-1 snowfall unless we're within 48 hours and you think it ill be all snow. We're better off using conservative numbers for our area (positive snow depth c change via Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal()...especially since so close to the r/s line. Warm thickness for the first storm has me worried about a narrow band of 6+ inch 32-33F wet snow - clinging to wires with power outages inland of I95 somewhere. just dont know where, if at all in our subforum. SST's are near normal today but warming along the coast from Wallops to Boston. So... it's at least a temporary enthusiastic opportunity, especially our I84 folks and maybe we can get some snow in the city.

The above hopefully encapsulates the likelihood of two upcoming significant east coast storms. Changes will occur from the some of the attached supporting graphics but we're in line for more significant weather and I'm sort of concerned about flood potential. This time maybe wet snowfall NYC.? Please consider limiting NYC snow enthusiasm with the stats attached from Don, at least until we get Jan 4-5 (if snow is still in the possibilities). It is hoped the Bluewave produced lack of 2" snowfall at CP can be put to bed, but it's possible that next Sundays probable wintry event will shift a little more inland with rain dominating along the coast. The event for the 10th could be brief snow or ice to heavy rain and snow melt, presuming we accumulate anywhere close to the attached 00z/31 EPS prob of 4" axis. Wind damage graphic via the EPS for the 10th... expectations are more of an e-ne wind (nor'easter we hope) for the 7th with gust potential 40-50 MPH along the coast and maybe minor coastal flooding (tide cycles are LOW for this storm). The event around the 10th "may" have stronger winds gusts vicinity 60MPH along the coast and a better chance of coastal flooding (tide cycles 10" higher to start). Power outages possible but impossible to predict without 24 hour confidence on wind gusts/qpf amounts/ptype/temp if and when it snows. This thread was started since I think there is general interest in snow, also flood potential for this weather interested forum. I may comment once/day but it's all yours. OBS for the 6th-7th will go in here. For whatever occurs the 10th...may have to separate out the OBS in a supplemental thread late 9th, but that's 10 days away and at least a portion of these ensemble expectations may be less than out looked through the 00z/31 cycle and therefore less impact and more routine. No guarantees here but definitely worth monitoring. Edited title 1156AM-Jan 6 to include obs and tags added obs and sleet. Edited title 645 AM Jan 8 iso include OBS for Jan 9-10 and removed the ? behind damaging wind.

Good morning, am constructing the Jan 6-10 thread... awaiting WPC D4-7 updated day shift snow prob graphics to attach along with their current D7 that now has 1.5" up to near Sandy Hook and also copying with permission I hope the Bluewave consecutive days with less than 2" of snow CP and the Don post on snow probs 1,2,4 for the various cities. I should have this ready for use, as poster desired. It will probably be loaded with actual reports as the two events progress. This then encourages posts prior to Jan 6, and after Jan 10 in the ongoing January thread. There will probably be another extensive event around Jan 13-14 but prefer to exclude form this thread which seems to be well handled by consensus in the ensembles. Hope to have ready by Noon.

Excellent stats Don... I'd like to add this to the thread... if its okay with you. Keeps perspective on I95. Right now, probably can't get thread out til 11A. Walt

Good morning all! A quick post. I plan to start a thread for the period Jan 6-10, probably around 10AM. That will encourage all posts for the last half of January to stay in January and we can concentrate energy on what I think will occur between the 6th-10th. That general idea follows with one graphic. Ensemble support for 2-6" of qpf in that period is in agreement for base 2" in the NYC subforum. Where its snow its 4+ but on I95 and east, messy or just rain? But stormy for sure. Good thing tides are down. Wind will be involved. You may want to go back to the CPC hazards posted this past Friday. Looks pretty good to me. My base info: Our very warm December will soon be replaced by snow plowing and shoveling across much of the region along and just west of I95 into the Appalachians. I will set the driveway snow stakes this week (nw NJ) I expect renewed flooding in parts of eastern PA/NJ and possibly elsewhere in the northeast. When all is said and done by Wednesday night January 10, at least two inches of water equivalent precipiation will have fallen along the entire east coast with isolated 6 inches. This means that snowfalls next weekend and possibly at the start of the warmer storm of the 10th, will at least partially melt. Here's the EPS chance of 4+" for next Sunday. Blues are above 30%. I think this is a pretty good signal for 7 days in advance. Where it actually ends up?? CMCE is about the same. GEFS is lagging.

Just have to wait it out. EPS may be surprising for some NY eve-NYD? quite a short wave coming across PA. Already wet snow showers nw NJ-Sussex County. 4th---we're northern fringes on EPS and that's probably better than the Canadian but it does illustrate the potential for a confluence zone banding mid lvl snow I84. Jan 6-7 EPS is in here...biggest VA area. That low pressure system will be a producer..suspect half a foot eastern foothills (for now VA/NC-just my take, no one else). 10th-11th is a bigger potentially wintry to heavy rain event. EPS tends to be conservative and its much larger than the GEFS which is not helpful in recent threaded events. Disappointing winter model (has very little snow) and the NWS staple. Until the 7 day anomalies decrease to normal, I continue with the idea of plenty of action coming.. On suppression: if suppressed, then I would expect below normal temps... I dont see that coming though am aware Canada is not its normally cold self.

No change from yesterday--- not too worried about suppression. Up here we're northern fringes for a while. My overall thinking based on ensembles (not individual single member op runs). Northeast USA from interior sections of NC-VA northward (mainly west of I95) : wintry options around Thursday January 4, next weekend January 6-7 and around January 10. For now playing this as there will be one event listed above, that produces an inch or more of snow for all of us (I95 or just west of I95) but which and where each system targets, too early for me but at least there are options on the table that could produce a plowable 4+" inch snow -- this latter impression is not a guarantee of widespread. The 1" I'm pretty confident of from NC/VA northward to Canada. How it plays and where each event targets the snow-ice vs rain is to be determined. As far as rainfall between 4th-14th--- another general 1-4" is a more than 50% chance for the I95 cities - it's an El Nino winter with a coastal storm track. The 4" rainfall potential probably has a better chance of verifying NC/GA but its within the realm of possibility up to NYC-BOS-Hartford and for snow lover's we hope not in ski-snow mobile country of the interior northeast. We've had enough rain... top 10 wettest December.

I think we need to think about 1-4 events 4th-14th. I doubt if this goes down as less than normal qpf in the 4th-14th period. For now, largest might be 10th-11th, but modeling may change and I think at least two events that 10 day period, which in of itself is not abnormal. It's the qpf potential. CPC should have our consideration.

CPC reasoning follows: As this storm tracks eastward, wet and windy conditions are possible across the East. A broad area is highlighted for a slight risk of rounds of heavy precipitation for the southeastern CONUS and East Coast as well as a slight risk of periods of heavy snow across the Southern to Central Appalachians and parts of the Northeast. The entirety of week-2 is designated for these hazards since the front could linger while extending from this surface low as it tracks towards the Northeast, in addition to possible reloading of the mid-level trough across the central CONUS at the end of the period. A moderate risk of heavy precipitation is designated for parts of the Southeast and East Coast, Jan 6-10, based on the ECMWF PET indicating at least a 30% chance of 3-day liquid equivalent exceeding the 85th percentile (>40% across the Northeast and Southeast) and uncalibrated guidance showing at least half an inch in a 24-hour period. The spatial coverage of this precipitation hazard is consistent with the background El Niño. Anticipated heavy precipitation could prolong flooding concerns across parts of the East Coast where there are currently gauges nearing or exceeding flood stage. A slight risk of high winds is posted for the East Coast for week-2 based on a favorable synoptic pattern and recent deterministic model guidance.

Hi... Nothing has changed for me at 5PM, from my morning thoughts on the 4th 6-7, 10. Here's CPC 3PM12/29 issuances for consideration (click for clarity)... we'll see what happens. Moderate risk heavy precip east coast, and a slight chance heavy snow WELL inland, and a chance of high winds east coast. IFFF things shape up consistently (esp EPS/CMC))... will attempt a reliable storm thread but probably not til sometime next week.

fwiw: yesterdays rainfall attached (after 7am ish), and the 3 day totals...max I could find about 3.46" Somerset County. Click for clarity. Forced at least one moderate flood in NNJ, and several minors. Now the recovery. NYC CP a little more than 1.5". Pushed the month to 6.66" #9 wettest since records began 1869 and #11 yearly with 59.24". My last on this event.

There is no doubt(in my mind) that events around the 4th, 7-8th, 10th and possibly well beyond, provide opportunity for snow-ice, at least down to I84 per 24 hours snow depth change ensembles in near normal temps though probs for more than 1" are rather low. NY eve ball drop might even show flurries nearby NYC w-n suburbs. All ensembles are above normal precip 4th-14th. Is it rain or snow/ice for I84? Even a chance of snow down to I95. Does it warm up after the 10th? Southern streamers look pretty active to me first 2-3 weeks of Jan.

Money. Buying back property or eminent domain. Don’t see that, but I do see being alert as to where you live, if finances permit

CoCoRaHs two rainfalls added for your check (please click for clarity). Am done with this rainfall posting til I do the 3 day tomorrow morning 830AM. HREF, just wish it had been further west. ou saw how conservative the BOM can be when taking all models into account (their variability of max amounts). You can check the original post for their forecast. Suspect that held us back 12 hours or more on a watch. I apologize for the wrong date in the headline (should have been Thu 12/28). I'm not going to change it now. The thread stands. Next, how much more rainfall for CP? Am pretty sure it gets to #11 yearly with over 1.5" for this event...probably 1.6-2" total. Also...if someone can check XMACIS on Dec/Yearly for EWR, TTN, ABE and post--- otherwise I can check for that late this eve. Saw the earlier helpful post on ABE Dec and yearly.

This was a good watch issuance for NJ by Mt Holly.

This part of Wantage 1.92". Most of the event rainfall was 8P-4A.. that's why sharp rises small streams.

Not yet, hopefully 930AM map.

Quick snap shot on rainfall amounts... more detail after 9AM. Max I see in the NYC suboforum is 3.4" Click for clarity,

Here's a display of NWS flood reports for this event.

Updated CP rainfall to 1.47" as of 7AM