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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Excellent posts this page - haven't had a chance to check anything else. I will begin a topic for 12/24-25 at about 715PM which will go without much ensemble support - always a concern, but the EC, GFS and WPC offers a good start 6-7 days in the future. It will include damaging wind, potential for ''minor or at worst moderate stream flooding" and maybe an inch or 3 of snow on the back side, Christmas morning.
  2. wdrag
    Overall impact maximized nw of our forum where you're seeing top 20 event historically. Thanks for all the insight on NYC records. We will do better along the coast, maybe this winter??? I dunno. Might depend if the Nina continues weakening. That I don't know either. I just hope that everyone appreciates how locked in some of these events in Nov - Dec have been 7-11 days in advance. That is all the worlds modelers improving physics via research-more observation platforms contributing (satellite, radar, aircraft etc) and computers. The oldsters among us know. This graphic from the WPC web site.
  3. wdrag
    Near closure on this event. Added NOHRSC snowfall analysis (multi platform). I think this analysis missed the 10" near Union or is it that spec of yellow?
  4. wdrag
    Posts on p38 (This one) are helpful for me and it is an interesting time. Not to go against anyone, but I'm thinking we are tending to expand the database with more extreme weather the past couple of decades here in our forum. I might be wrong on this and will listen to counter science. This could be related to the warming (cycle) planet. Have appended several graphics to ensure everyone has seen this and has an idea in advance what is ahead (flooding? but if we're lucky, some spring snowmelt for the reservoirs in April). Also, there is anecdotal evidence (unsure of the science research on this) that the southern edge of the snowpack tends to set up the warm fronts and future low pressure development (easier in warmer air with northward advance of warm fronts often slowed by the colder denser surface air associated with snow cover). Didn't add snow density because I don't understand the numbers and how they relate to impacts but I think it may have to do with difficulty passing through (walk, transportation)and/or removal. If there is a link--- please add on. Thank you.
  5. wdrag
    Good Friday morning everyone, I hope this is a snow satiated group this morning. I think more snow is coming for NYC this December. I posted event options for the I84 area in our nw - ne suburbs thread. I am thinking of a storm thread for Christmas eve-Christmas morning- but think it best to wait until all the 12z/18 guidance (ensembles too) is in. Even the 21st looks interesting to me for NYC/CT. The thread for the 24th-25th would be along the model lines you see now. Big snowmelt (virtually all melted se of I84) by rain and a brief southerly flow warmup. Damaging wind potential e Li (already ~40% prob of 50 MPH gusts from the 00z/18 GEFS), then cap it off with a 1-4" backside CAA snow the morning of the 25th. These backside snows are not easy to attain and uncommon (long shot in the coastal plain). Temperatures will dictate remaining snowmelt on the 24th, but if it's rapid and we get 1" of rainfall on top of the 1" snowmelt water equivalent in 12 hours, we might have minor flood problem?? Again, a long shot per current guidance with so many variables to consider. The main thing, we continue in a highly amplified pattern with 'overall' near normal temps the rest of the month. Have a good day.
  6. wdrag
    Just a tease: May have a topic started late today or tomorrow morning (Christmas eve). Sunday: A pretty good chance for a period of Trace-3" snow I84 high terrain. Monday the 21st: Right now models have a storm just offshore. This could end up closer, bringing a hazardous snow event of several inches for the I84 corridor, especially CT/MA. Christmas eve into Christmas morning: Definitely a storm coming. It could be mostly heavy rain melting our I84 snow pack Christmas eve with a quick coating of 1-4" in its wake Christmas morning. Monday the 28th: another opportunity for wintry precipitation. One event at a time. Have a good Friday.
  7. wdrag
    You may be right... I don't know. What I do know is that anything beyond two weeks with reliability is not easy and I myself, while I look to our long rangers for hope (or lack of), I don't think we yet have a good handle on the multiple influences that carve out a season. So, I'll continue to pay attention but I'm not confident of anything beyond 11 days.
  8. wdrag
    You're right but ... an extreme event of 40, I know I'm not there predicting that with any confidence-reliability. The idea of 20-25 should cue up attention.
  9. wdrag
    Hi! I've been offline for 4 hours. You may already have this imagery... CoCoRAHS snowfall for the event up through their ob time this morning. Tomorrow I may post a two day summary total for those locations that will report both days. No thunder: so despite no thunder...drama occurred NYC forum and NYS forums. Power outages: not much and in NYS concentrated where I didn't expect...well upstate near and w of BGM. Thanks much for all your reports, model posts-impressions, climate comments. I'll be curious as to the NESIS evaluation for this storm (not top 20 in our area but ne USA, maybe?)
  10. wdrag
    Wantage NJ at this location about 11.9 for a final.
  11. wdrag
    Wantage NJ Moderate snow at 759A. 1/2S
  12. wdrag
    fwiw: I had remarked on banding qpf per multiple models n central PA to near ALB and mentioned 20-25" bullseyes in two states. The EC KUCHERA had 33" idea. I've added the northwest transition of the big band originally slated for I84 back to a IPT BGM ALB axis beginning the 00z/15 cycle. About 48 hours LT on a consideration that became much more emphatic with future model cycles. Here's 3 different model samples at various Lead times) (no UK added since the UK is referenced above), and finally the EC consideration on the 12th... too far south but it was this consistently modeled snow amount forecast that helped prompt my confidence for a top 20 event.
  13. wdrag
    Small sample CoCoRAHS reports as of 730A. am probably offline til 945A.
  14. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 4sw storm total 11.0 S- small flake. SD a solid 10" . had quite bit of wind during the night. Up to 24.1F now. Walt 730A
  15. wdrag
    Unsure whether we return to La Nina base state before January at the earliest. Too much -NAO and hints at occasionally Positive PNA and from what I can see in the NAEFS, winter storm possibilities 21st-30th, special emphasis on the 24th-30th. Too much general blocking potential and jet modeled almost constantly south of our forum with a trough in the east. Doubt very much whether we can get something close to what just occurred the 16th-17th but I don't think we're done with snow this DEC in NYC. Since it looks like the sample size for LaNina behaviors has been expanded in Dec, what might we think about for JFM? Thanks, Walt
  16. wdrag
    I see it's still moderate snow at times along and north of I80 PA NJ and much of nw LI. I would think this is a high impact storm there and I suspect will be a top 20 event in the ne snow storms when all is said and done. We'll try to detail that more around 11A. Wantage NJ storm total at 545A is 10.7" (1.1 since 315A). Densely wind driven packed snow. 22.8F and rising.
  17. wdrag
    Am hopeful that upon further review, that the event produced at least low end of the ranges. I see it's still moderate snow at times along and north of I80 PA NJ and much of nw LI. I would think this is a high impact storm there and I suspect will be a top 20 event in the ne snow storms when all is said and done. We'll try to detail that more around 11A.
  18. wdrag
    That is helpful Don. I appreciate your checking. Later, Walt
  19. wdrag
    ALY can answer, but my understanding, similar to many offices... can't find and train a reliable observer within the requirements of NWS CLI to be representative of previous POU observer location. Something like that. Takes time, effort, conscientiousness, paying attention to detail and maybe we don't pay enough. NWS has other resources including CoCoRAHS, CO-OP observers, NOHRSC, etc.
  20. wdrag
    Thanks! I agree w you. My guess is that there will eventually be some sort of normalization of this snowfall data, as NHC with prior history etc etc.
  21. wdrag
    Jackpot areas so far: 25-28" reports very near BGM (3 reports 25 or more), and multiple 20's IPT. Here's a look at reports that posted thru 350AM. Power outage problem did materialize as I anticipated. That is good news. Have not looked at guidance since 930PM last night.
  22. wdrag
    Be thankful for whatever we get. I forgot... NWS doesn't have snow climo anymore for POU, MPO. So I guess we won't know for sure on amounts per NWS CLI. Just have to regionalize average the nearby CoCORAHS etc values. BDR daily RER snowfall 6.5", ABE 9.2, PHL 6.3 - the latter PA values not daily RER's.
  23. wdrag
    CP: I did not check, will try in an hour but if someone has the answer. The 6.5 " in CP in one day is largest since??? Thanks.
  24. wdrag
    Concerned about CLI DB. Someone please correct me. I see the excellent midnight CP 6.5" yet, the CLI does not show this as a record. XMACIS does. Why the difference between XMACIS Daily Almanac and the OKX CLI (5.3 vs 7.0). Thank you very much in advance. Almanac for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) December 16, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 43 63 in 1971 19 in 1886 Min Temperature M 32 48 in 1971 7 in 1876 Avg Temperature M 37.2 55.5 in 1971 14.5 in 1917 Precipitation M 0.12 2.25 in 1974 0.00 in 2017 Snowfall M 0.2 5.3 in 1948 0.0 in 2019 Snow Depth M - 10 in 1960 0 in 2019 HDD (base 65) M 28 50 in 1917 9 in 1971 CDD (base 65) M 0 0 in 2019 0 in 2019
  25. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 s High Point 315AM report 9.6 total (4.3 since the 845PM report). SD 9. Densely packed small flake snowfall, wind driven. 20.*F and rising a bit
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