wdrag

Modeling is trying but you know how that goes... 1 member out of the coming 3000+ leading up the 17th. Hope folks can refrain from a thread til ensemble support, or multiple days GFS/GGEM/EC. I know folks are for want of more snow but it's been a pretty decent winter, especially with expectations generally for a less than stellar winter. To hold off the first 2021, 60 or 70 degree temp til ~the 9th-10th. That's why we have a nice snow cover for the animals to walk and roll on today. Pretty cool and am mentally prepared to see it go. Which brings me to the future of my own thread initiations on the forum. After March 14, probably very-very limited to hazardous winter only - if that, or maybe a flooding rain threat in summer, but potentially nil. Certainly no severe's as last summer (had too many svr threads anyway). The plan is for me to get back to some part time work March 15. Enjoyment of family-activities, property landscaping, late summer travel will preclude me from initiating threads. Just too much for me to maintain a close eye upon ea thread, as well as wrap-ups.I feel obligated once Initiated, that I need to stay on top of them (helps keep me more conservative). Just can't do that once am back working. So... have had plenty of top contributions in the forum that have helped me look at new approaches and for the most part, the long lead threads have been of value. After March 14, probably hands off for me. Been fun to be a witness to the utility of large scale modeling predictability. We're sooooo far ahead of where we were, even a decade or two ago.

I agree. Have looked and looked and thru the 14th, think there is little to pique my interest. I'm turning to the long rangers hereon, for a look at MJO and potential 15th onward? It seems the jet is depressed a bit after the 13th, and whiles AO and NAO are positive, timing could be everything as as the mid south gets wet again. I haven't quite given up on Sunday (late?) rom the northwest flow, (light event) but for now, no modeling support, so it's best to move on, I think.

Reviewing the original thread starter narrative below. Ended up further north, no advisory but a bit of snow just inside of I95. At least we knew something was coming that had qpf, and small snow for our forum. I look at this as worthy. Better than nothing occurring and of value to some of our members and model detection 7 days in advance, again. ll the data is here for review. 301P/20: While 12z/20 GEFS guidance was delayed for full review (and therefore NAEFS), there is potential for a light or even moderate fast moving (east or east northeast) precip event. Depends in part whether the primary low crosses the St Lawrence Valley, or whether the front sags south of the forum with a wave of low pressure scooting eastward on it, as a fairly strong wave heads east from the Great Lakes. Ensembles at this writing are not favorable for much of an event but individual models for the past 2 days have proposed an advisory snow either in our forum, or south of us, across the Virginias/Delmarva. The latest 18z/20 WPC guidance basically has no qpf in our forum for this event, so it could easily be a bust. I think some wintry precip will happen here, but could be 100% wrong. Let's leave the door open for a couple of days and see if this can target a portion of our area with an inch or more of snow. If snow does occur but only I84 corridor, then there won't be an obs thread (fewer members). TBD. .

Adding the 2 day qpf. Snowfall via Co-CoRAHS was Trace. Will add LSR reports late today. Rainfall for this 2 day period ended up 1/4-1/2" North and 0.5- 0.9" south.

Unless I misunderstood the above: the operational GFS had this, but no other model 06z 2/23 cycle. Have attached the image. It didn't end up quite as far south as the GFS (~504 1000-500 thickness), but certainly the OP was on it. Soon after the GEFS cycles. Here is from the 2/28-3/1 thread on Wed morning 2/24 -00z/24 cycle, which the GFS pegged for it's most intense phase in our area 06z/2. I didn't want to believe it. What this does, is tell me that the V16 upgrade would not have caught this so early (late to the table). A shot of notably cold air follows Monday night (but not the GFS op ferocity which doesn't have much support). - written 2/24A ~655A So while it seems the GFS v16 will be an improvement on the current GFSv156 op, I know it won't always be better and I don't know to how much of an improvement the V16 will be. ALSO, outliers in long range, sometimes become the closest to reality at whatever future lead time. Most of the time outliers are caste away as no good, only sometimes turning out to be the best predictor. Not easy to know that the outliers are truly not of value.

I think today and generally this week through the 7th is why I'm not much a fan of the EPO as a predictor of the ps here in the northeast. Probably great for stable patterns but even that, I'm unsure. Certainly doesn't look too good for this week inclusive of today as predictor? Counter comments welcome.

Bunch of power outages late yesterday and overnight from wind gusts 45-55MPH in parts of the area. I think the strongest winds have occurred or will havre occurred by 10AM. HRRR has slow diminishment thereafter.

First wind gusts I've seen 40kt or greater nearby to our northwest, in the previous hour ending around 4PM. KALB: Albany, Albany Intl Arpt, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KBFD: Bradford, Bradford Regional Airport, PA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KELZ: Wellsville, Wellsville Municipal Airport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPSF: Pittsfield, Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KSWF: Newburgh / Stewart, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

It must be in the very recent years that emphasis has shifted from NAO to AO for ne USA snow. I've no skill at LR except it does seem that NAO has be - to make it more favorable.

IF this sounding verifies this evening just nw of NYC, you'll possibly hear of a snow squall warning. Unsure whether this can verify this close to the city. Has wind to 40 kt in the event.

Wantage NJ as of 625A: 0.56" past 19 hours.

Monday morning March 1 625AM Update: Good to see the sleet obs yesterday in our distant nw suburbs. Below restates what is obviously modeled and discussed in prior days updates: I moved the timing up an hour and changed the title to add OBS-NOWCAST as well. Will have summary maps of rain, any snowfall, and possibly wind gusts 45+ in tomorrow's (Tuesday) 10AM wrapup-review. Tonight 7PM/1 -3AM/2. Turning sharply colder with bands of flurries and snow showers causing a few areas of hazardous travel as temps fall from near freezing at 7PM to between 5 and 15 above by dawn Tuesday I84, and near 20 NYC, along with gusty northwest winds 35-45 MPH and wind chill down just below zero. Most areas only flurries, but a half inch of snow is possible a few locations ne PA, extreme nw NJ and especially se NYS, CT and maybe even e LI. A wind advisory is posted with NYC wind chill close to zero at sunrise Tuesday.

Good Monday morning everyone! It's March 1. For the I84 corridor. Looks like a cold first week of March and generally mild the second week, after the 8th. Below restates what is obviously modeled. Tonight 7PM/1 -3AM/2. Turning sharply colder with bands of flurries and snow showers causing a few areas of hazardous travel as temps fall from near freezing at 7PM to between 5 and 15 above by dawn Tuesday, along with gusty northwest winds 35-45 MPH and wind chill down just below zero. Most areas only flurries, but a half inch of snow is possible a few locations. A wind advisory is posted. This coming weekend: A period of light snow is possible? Northwest flow clipper-reinforcing cold front...not the large strong ocean storm modeled by the EPS. Whatever snowpack greater than 2 inches that is on the ground at sundown today has a good chance of remaining nearly intact through March 8th, with only minor melt along the edges. As written in prior posts. Wantage, High Point still in pretty deep snowpack. Was at exit 8 I84 (Cobb) at 2000 feet yesterday. VERY impressive deep pack there.

EPS is coming back closer but long ways to go with GEPS/GEFS nil so far, as well as the NAEFS. What is becoming somewhat evident is a northwest flow reinforcing cold front that may have a clipper like low attached and a bit of light snow for the forum, mainly north of LI/80. Far distant i time but not complete closure. I'm more interested in the northwest flow reinforcing clipper potential while EPS has a close call large-strong ocean storm for the shoreline only.

650A Sunday/28: Ttile dropped snow from the snow to rain scenario. Significant 21 hour rainfall (1/2" I84 to 3/4-1.5" NJ/LI) this afternoon into Monday mid morning with snowmelt but not enough for a problem. Could see the need for something water related a part of urban ne NJ by Monday morning? Dense fog possible tonight with mild moist air over chilly ground. I think there will be spotty icing highest peaks of the Poconos/Catskills/Litchfield Hills this afternoon-tonight but no significant treated road problem. Small chance that rain ends as wet snow forenoon Monday I84 high terrain with little or no impact, if it does end as snow. Monday evening from roughly 8P -4A Tuesday, flurries likely to near NYC with a band or two of snow squalls CT/NYS/ne PA and possibly extreme nw NJ that could coat roads with a hazardous 1/2" accumulation in 30 minutes, along with gusty northwest winds to near 45 MPH, a few minutes of reduced visibility under 1/2mile and icy roads due to temps plummeting from near freezing at 8PM to the teens by dawn Tuesday (20-22F NYC?) and wind chill near zero CT/NYS/PA. We'll see if the models back off but from what i can tell, the early GFS op (V15) has been onto this from many days ago, much more so than any other model. NYC either no snow or a Trace of flurries. Some of the modeling suggests a band of squalls crosses from CT through e LI later Monday night.

For those that still have snowpack that is 3" or more Tuesday morning-March 2nd interior se NYS, extreme nw NJ/ne PA, you should still have some snowpack remaining into March 8. This last line I probably won't remember to track but that's what some of the modeling suggests.

One run of the V16 I think had quite an event...one member of interest out of the hundreds that that will pour out of the models. the upcoming next week. Just showed it as potential, but havent tracked the image and i certainly didn't say this would happen. Too many burns on stuff beyond 7 days. What hasn't happened, to my recollection, is a sudden modeling change 72 hours in advance that goes from nothing to a snowstorm. While I can't rule this out in the future, I do think modeling has improved so much the past few years that the so-called SURPRISE snowstorm around NYC is seldom, if at all. Credit the researchers-modeling capabilities-science. Think that's why we need to monitor ensembles immediately after our interest is piqued with a ballistic single member. We're better off. That way life's good hours don't disappear wasted, in the quest for the elusive snowstorm. This change in NAO is our immediate shot for an event. If not this coming week, then I suspect we have to wait another week or longer as it looks mild to me 8th-15th. However, I am curious about why the jet is depressed (suspiciously low heights southern USA toward the 15th). I've no explanation (unless it's MJO related). If those heights are that low in the south, then i get interested in what eventually follows since short waves will scoop the Gulf moisture. Pretty substantial jet resumes by mid March around 35N and the CFS has for the most part been targeting that 35N axis with heavier than normal qpf th'e next 30 days, while we're sometimes in and sometimes north of that axis.

Doesn't look an event to me, unless we get a clipper that dives southeast from the Great Lakes and passes s of LI around the 7th-8th. Long ways to go. Think I'd look for the clipper as a 'hope' for any widespread synoptic scale low pressure driven snow event, otherwise we have an unusually long essentially dry period here that lasts from March 2nd beyond March 9.

Graphic's ob... time CoCoRaHs ob vs yours, how we measure... and location. a tenth difference... good enough for me.

Nice to see but so much can shred or tighten up... at this distant date... treat as another member and watch the EPS (and GEFS/GEPS) 24 hr qpf and snowfall, of course the 500MB pattern. I could see this running up into New England or interior NJ with snow to rain as per some of the modeling i saw a day or two ago. Worthy of self monitoring, plenty of patience and not too much time invested--in case it's a dissapointment. Been a good winter. Walt

Yes, GFSv16 has ~half a foot along the e coast (I95 eastward from northern NC northeastward). I'd like to the EPS/GEFS snow amounts start accumulating for this potential, before I jump in. Lot's can wrong but interesting for sure.

Hope you're right. 06z/27 GEFS split the northern and southern streams by the 7th and never hooked enough to give much of northward response (post tilt northern stream). Would like to see the southern stream short wave come out faster, but it may not. Then by the time it does, too late with little cold enough air remaining. Distant horizon in time. Definitely not doing anything (from my initiation) for another day or 2 til some sort of model agreement on a northward translation close to the coast.

At 830AM: added graphics of what happened late last evening-this morning through about 7AM via CoCoRaHs. Will update tomorrow for any very minor additional amounts in NYS/CT.

Not sure about wall-wall but I think you'll keep your fair percentage of your snowpack. The best chance of a big warmup is early Monday afternoon. Otherwise, lack of wind will keep air temp down, plus cloud cover, and so the rain will absorb and ripen the pack a bit. Fog may be the biggest pack eater, especially Sunday night. I'm not even sure the snow that fell this morning will melt on its own here and I'll clear it during midday, Takes heat out of the air to melt/evap. Helps w keeping temps a bit cooler. Hope we all can keep most of what we have into the 4th. Post us tomorrow and Monday on pack status.

655A Saturday/27: Coming to the end of this thread... that may end with a noticeable bang. Definitely a significant rainfall (1/2"or more) Sunday into Monday morning with snowmelt but not enough for a problem. Dense fog possible Sunday night with mild moist air over chilly ground. Chance that rain ends as wet snow forenoon Monday I84 high terrain with minuscule impact. However, Monday evening from roughly 8P -4A Tuesday, flurries likely to near NYC with a band or two of snow squalls CT/NYS/ne PA and possibly extreme nw NJ that could coat roads with a hazardous 1/2-1" accumulation in an hours time, along with gusty northwest winds to near 45 MPH, a few minutes of reduced visibility under 1/2mile and icy roads due to temps plummeting from near freezing at 8PM to the teens by dawn Tuesday (20-22F NYC?) and wind chill near zero CT/NYS/PA. We'll see if the models back off but from what i can tell, the early GFS op (V15) has been onto this from many days ago, much more so than any other model. Bluewave detailed elsewhere in the March thread.