wdrag

I'll check again tomorrow morning early on on theb7th-8th... meanwhile something sizable in the 13-16time frame. Expanded the window one day for two events. Nice 18z/3 GFS op totals of 1-3, iso 4+. still way early.

So we all saw the 00z/3 EC for 11/7-8. Unlikely. It's EPS is hugely trim from that 00z/3 EC OP. GEFS even through 06z/3 has less than 0.10. NAEFS is also weak...less than 0.20. However, BEYOND (there is always beyond) there is general multi model agreement for a big complex storm system with lots of precip for our area 11/13-15. Right now 1-3", iso heavier suggested, with ice potential possible down to I84 high terrain. Have seen it previously non-consensus modeled too wintry for the 8th down to I84. So am not saying it will be a little icy there but this system is our next potential decently sized weather event, that may eventually warrant a thread if we get to modeled damaging wind, or 4" rains, or even ice into the interior part of our NYC subforum. Just too early (for me). We are soon to be due for a large Nov storm system.

OK, so I won't check--thanks... my reference to 76-77 was probably my experience up in SNE which was a good winter. Down here NYC area to PHL, nothing special. Just have to wait it out for this winter. Wait, and wait ,and wait? Hope it won't be forever...

Where??? I'll check XMACIS as best can. I think Bluewave has more or less concurred with his data presentation that later in Nov is better than early in Nov or even Oct. My only caveat on this IFFFF in the rare instance we have a colder than normal OCT """AND""" NOV, Then we'd be heading for a 76-77 winter, if I'm not mistaken. Not to worry this season.

Nothin! EPS Nov 5-6 will be a bust, and GEFS Nov 8-10 will likely also be a bust. Blame it on what you want, but major (EPS, GEFS) model consensus still prevails on forecasting. (Sorry EPS early Nov snow to I84 is off the books as is my default favoring of the EPS-EC---still need to review all the modeling before committing to a forecast). What I like...not having to deal with early season snow acc. I think early season snow tends to negate winter in the big cities of NYC-BOS corridor, even out here in extreme nw NJ. Please correct me if I'm wrong. So we avoided Oct snows, and the way it looks to me, even the Poconos won't have any snow prior to the 14th. Maybe we'll actually have winter in winter (late Dec-mid March) That would be novel. I edited the body of the originating thread to add in the CP departure of +4.1F for October, so we have it for the eventual Nov wrap comparison. Also, saw the comments about global marine +/- departure blobs shaping the feedback 500MB pattern. I'm not too sure which comes first... ENSO driving blobs or blobs are importantly modifying ENSO impact. Think if we knew that for sure, we'd have greater success at figuring out seasonal patterns. I wonder if anything will occur that will abruptly change the pattern late this fall?

00z/1 EPS on the 5th-6th has trended weaker and further east as a possible grazer while the GEFS is positive tilt as previously 24 hours ago but continues much more interested in the 8th-9th (now extended into the 10th). Am surprised EPS has nothing signaled for the 8th-10th. Therefore, no consensus on either set of paired dates except 5th-6th per the 500MB patterns looks positive tilt and weaker than previously indicated (grazer) while 8th-10th-no EPS-GEFS consensus.

Summary CoCRaHs totals for the two storms: Think this worked out pretty well... d60-70MPh gusts far E LI Wednesday morning and 60 MPH gusts NJ coast Fri night. and the general 4-7" of rain for the two storms, isolated heavier. Please click maps for clarity. Least rainfall was in nw CT.

Summary - 2 day. No flooding rains. Damaging wind to 60 MPH NJ coast. Heaviest rain was near the Delaware River.

Euro EPS or Euro OP? The EPS was very threatening with big goodyear tire circulation centered s of LI....far in advance. If we're talking OP... i don't remember details, EXCEPT, Tuesday morning I think that low was crossing sw LI near JFK... I do know there was a circulation there.

FWIW...lets monitor whether the much stronger EPS, and sooner is correct. IF, it is, then I think that's two storms (earlier this past week it handled much better than the GEFS). Jury still out and GEFS 06z cycle continues as previously shown. Off line for Halloween after 1030A. Have a day...don't forget your treats.

Large nor'easter potential Either Nov 5-6 (EPS) or Nov 8-9 (GEFS). 00z/31 ensemble cycles attached to compare and let's see what happens. May result in a period of snow down to I84? Check the confluence in se Canada...i like that (dual jet- RRQ Canadian confluence and LF of the se USA trough). EPS left-first, GEFS right-last.

More rain to come and some of it briefly moderate or heavy prior to sunrise Sunday... You already know the winds and power outages from late yesterday. CP .92" thru 8A put CP over 5.1" for the month. 2" out by Mt Pocono. Heaviest rain has been west so far. May be slightly interesting tonight as the big trough in the eastern USA goes negative and weakens across us overnight. Slightest chance isolated thunder and small hail in NJ. EC TT not supportive but lots of southerly wind in the sounding.

57 knots at Seaside Heights at about 715PM per Weatherflow sensor. 10,000 meters without power in NJ, most in s NJ. MA still about 90,000 meters out from Wednesday morning hurricane force gusts.

The gusty east winds of 45-60 MPH along the NJ and Li coasts early tonight will ease from south to north by sunrise Saturday as the bands of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms sweep north through the NYC subforum with generally 3/4-2" amounts. Depending on amounts ne NJ might end up with flooding overnight, while streams and rivers that were receding start rising again during the night through Saturday. There should be a lull in the showery weather Saturday morning-midday, but drizzle may occur in some areas. Another burst of showery rains, should develop across the subforum mid Saturday afternoon, except maybe missing to the east of PA. This is associated with low pressure and the approaching sharp but weakening 500MB trough heading east-northeast through the mid Atlantic states. There are questions on how much rain can occur with this second system, the HRRR and 3KNAM tending to be furthest west. It's possible thunder will occur with system as well as instability approaches 0C during the evening.

Will start an OBS thread around 5pm. Sprinkles possible NJ PA portion of aubforum before 5p. Have a day. Walt

An event that by itself would probably not deserve a thread. Start time of the showers later today a little uncertain, in my mind. Follow radar and updated modeling. Rain tonight with isolated embedded heavy showers and gusty east winds to 45 mph in a few spots, especially coast. Periods of drizzle or showers Saturday with general totals by sundown Saturday of 3/4 to 2". IFFFF, the trough sharpens enough there will be a second surge of rain late Saturday or Saturday night that would add to the totals. So isolated 4" still not impossible somewhere in the NYC subforum, but not likely. Sunday, could be some residual drizzle or scattered showers with the weakening trough aloft, and lots of leftover clouds. A wind advisory and coastal flood advisory is posted for parts of the coast. Still need to monitor for renewed flooding in ne NJ later tonight or Saturday. Please monitor NWS products.

I like this climate compare post. What i also see in Nov data are the variable outcomes...many-many more neg departures than either Sept-Oct. Yet, as you note, confidence on whether we'll actually end up with a negative departure in Nov has to be minimal... just don't know, at least not using these data alone. The warming climate change in Sept, Oct, Dec,Jan, July is noted. Thank you.

I anticipate 1-3" of rain between 6PM Friday and midnight Saturday night in the forum, with most of it Friday night or Saturday morning, along with coastal easterly winds gusts of 40 kt and a period of minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding, especially the Saturday morning high tide as pressure continues to lower despite abating easterly inflo. Isolated 4". I anticipate renewed river-small stream flooding or reversal of any recessions in the subforum. Best chance for FF would be northeast NJ where 6 hourly rainfall of about 3/4-1" would I think prompt some sort of advisory-warning. So while volume will be less, due to shorter duration and lesser wind inflow, the stage was set with this early week storm. I have not thought much about severe at this time, but there is CAPE around this weekend, so Saturday afternoon-evening convection may also be of interest, especially with fairly strong winds aloft and a TT of near 50 currently modeled for late Saturday (northwest of I95?) .

Just for the record and not a separate thread yet: The operational GFS has been forecasting measurable accumulative snow to near I95 sometime between the 3rd and 8th of November for the following cycles. 18z/23, 00z and 06z/25, 12z/26 and now 18z/27. Am monitoring for a possible thread occurrence between the 5th and 8th but no confidence yet.

I've no skill in LR forecasting but the late start to the FALL frost-freeze season, NAEFS, and modeling through the 10th suggests we should be closer to normal this November than the positive departure we'll end up with in October. So when will the first snow accumulate I95 northwestward, then in NYC? Can we muster one more tropical RH contributor to the NYC subforum? Edited body at 742AM-Nov 2, to add the October 2021 CP +4.1F departure from normal, to use as comparison for NOV 2021 departure from normal.

OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI. Reviewing Sundays 24th thread above: I didn't see 8" but overall I think the combined efforts here-in had a pretty accurate short fuse accounting of what would happen, in advance. Power outages were more in the forested areas north of I95 but I think we can agree the eastern tip of LI had near 70 Mph gusts. The extent of advisory/warning level winds was less than modeled. Max rainfall around 6.5". When the Delaware goes into flood from where it was, (a short fuse rise of 15 feet!!!) that tells you that it was a good thing the we were dry for 2+ weeks in advance of this event. I think aside from accurate SPC HREF, the EPS 5" coverage area was very good...better than the GEFS and imo, it also handled the intensity of the 85MB ne jet across New England much better. I'm pretty much done with this thread... thanks to all the contributors and critiques. The EDD comment this morning triggered my learning of this program from a long time met friend in CT and you'll in the future see imagery of reality max gusts.

OKX has just published LSR winds of 62-70 MPH from near Groton to e LI.

Prelim wrap on qpf... CoCoRaHs TWO DAY totals maps below. Click to enlarge. My 4.73 in Wantage NJ (8s High Point) looks pretty good. Walpack 5.02 and Vernon 5.04 via NJWXNET.

Adding WPC Excessive as a D3 starter.