weathermedic

76/68. Sticky out there. A/C on once again

From Upton's late morning AFD: Showers are nearing Orange county and continue to move east into the early afternoon. A shortwave trough swings across New England today sending a fast moving cold front into the region. Have increased PoPs to account for the latest radar trends. Also have noted rising dew points advecting north from the NJ coast. CAPE is beginning to increase with the higher moisture and should reside mainly east of NYC later this afternoon, supporting a line of low topped convection. Organized lift ahead of shortwave energy passes to the north, but convergence along the surface cold front will be the main factor in producing showers this afternoon/early evening. A few lightning strikes are possible and due to strong shear, gusty winds and an isolated severe gust cannot be ruled out. SPC has placed Long Island and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather. This line of convection should develop around 20z western Long Island and southwest CT and quickly sweep through and be offshore 23-00z. No concerns for any flooding due to the quick movement of the system.

Rainbow just appeared in Inwood in extreme southwest Nassau County.

Seeing multiple Twitter reports of hail in Brooklyn

ANZ338-042030- /O.CON.KOKX.MA.W.0122.000000T0000Z-190904T2030Z/ 410 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019 ...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT... For the following areas... New York Harbor... At 409 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts was located over Upper New York Harbor, moving east at 25 knots. HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts in excess of 50 knots. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Boats could suffer significant structural damage in high winds. Small craft could capsize in suddenly higher waves. The severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly open waters.

Lots of lightning just to the south of the Rockaways.

Hearing lots of distant rumbles of thunder to my north here in Sheepshead Bay

Showers popping up over and near NY Harbor

80/76 here at my station

1.07 here so far

Lightning struck a house in Flatbush section of Brooklyn and has started a fire on the roof of a building.

Strong storm with very heavy rain, some close lightning and winds to about 40 mph just blew through Sheepshead Bay

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Hudson County in northeastern New Jersey... Eastern Passaic County in northeastern New Jersey... Eastern Union County in northeastern New Jersey... South central Bergen County in northeastern New Jersey... Eastern Essex County in northeastern New Jersey... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 249 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Newark, Elizabeth, Passaic, Bloomfield, Linden, Orange, Lyndhurst, Rutherford, Secaucus, Harrison, Ridgefield, Union City, Kearny, Union and Teterboro. The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southwestern Morris County in northern New Jersey... Northeastern Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 145 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. 1-2 inches of rain has already fallen over the area. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly in the areas of heaviest rain. * Some locations that could experience flooding include... High Bridge, Clinton, Glen Gardner, Lebanon, Califon, Annandale and Long Valley.

And look like they are slow movers.

Was quite visible last night from atop Mt Washington Observatory according to their Twitter page this morning.

Something definitely wrong with the Central Park thermometer

Dew point down to 63 at my station as opposed to the low 70s where it’s been the last few days. Feels nice.

Dew point 72 here. Feels sticky to me.

DT released his winter forecast:

Larry Cosgrove in his latest blog says most of US to be in pac zonal flow with periodic cold air intrusions between the Rockies and Appalachians at least through the 3rd week of December.

He usually predicts something similar every year

Here is another "early" winter weather forecast: https://www.weatherconcierge.com/the-weather-concierge-winter-forecast-of-2018-19/

Bernie Rayno says to follow the upper low (just north of it's track) for the snow. Will make its own cold air. Has the northern half of PA, southern NYS and northern half of NJ, NYC and western L.I. for a changeover to snow.

...Or the once an hour (during the daytime hours-report was usually repeated for a couple of hours before it would be updated 2 or 3 times a day) for a live Accuweather report on 1010 WINS when Dr. Joe Sobel or Eliot Abrams or JB would come on the air.