From OKX evening AFD:
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Guidance has converged for the weak and quick moving low
pressure system that will be moving out of the upper midwest and
passing to the south of the region tonight. The trend has been
for a colder and slightly farther southern track, with mainly
snow across the area late this evening and overnight. There may
be a brief rain/snow mix at the onset, and transition to snow as
the atmospheric column cools. Precipitation will be generally
light with weak upper support with a flat and broad shortwave
moving through the area. Timing of the precipitation is also
rather consistent with onset around 1000 PM and ending by 500
AM, with the bulk falling in a 3 hour window midnight to 300 AM.
The onset may be delayed as the lower layers are dry, and will
have to be overcome. The band of snowfall is also rather narrow,
with a sharp gradient of no snow to 1 to 1 1/2 inches of
snowfall. And locations to the northeast and east likely see no
to very little precipitation. Therefore, any minor shift in the
track of the low will have impacts to where the heaviest snow
will occur. With the ending time of snow toward Tuesday morning,
the morning commute will be impacted and this is highlighted in
the hazardous weather outlook (HWOOKX).