weathermedic

Air recon supposed to take place in the Pacific later today. Don't know if that data will get ingested in time for the 12Z Euro/GFS suite.

They just shut the upper level of the Verrazano Bridge due to the wind.

Latest 1AM OKX AFD: NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The latest surface obs and dual pol indicate snow/wintry mix has changed to rain for NYC/NJ metro and coast, with transition expected to work north through the interior overnight as increasing E-SE flow should overwhelm any linger colder air, taking until perhaps 3 to 4 am across Orange County. Some locations received just under an inch before the snow changed to rain in portions of the NYC metro and CT coast. Seeing as much as 3 inches across interior portions of the Lower Hudson Valley based on NYC mesonet, with snowfall rates exceeding 1" hr. Most areas north of I-287 and the Merritt Pkwy will see at least 2 to 3 inches of snow accumulation plus a light glaze of ice, with Orange and W Passaic seeing as much as 4-6 inches of snow especially in the higher elevations, and a few hundredths of an inch of ice. A very tight pres gradient between the sfc low and retreating high pressure out over the Atlantic, and strong upper divergence/lift ahead of a negatively-tilted closed low lifting through the Mid Atlantic region, will produce a band of strong winds and heavy rain between 2 am and 7am from SW to NE. Cant rule out some embedded thunder for LI as well, as noted off the S Jersey coast, as of 1am. E Long Island and coastal SE CT should see a pd of sustained winds 40-45 mph with gusts 60-65 mph, with areas to the west (mainly coastal SW CT, western Long Island, and NYC) seeing winds just shy of those values, sustained 25-35 mph with gusts 45-55 mph. Temps overnight should rise to the upper 40s in the NYC metro area and along the coast, and to the upper 30s/lower 40s inland, except lower to mid 30s far NW areas.

Lightning showing up on radar east of Atlantic City.

Jones Beach Davis station gusted to 51 mph at 1240am

Two areas of interest east of the southern NJ coast on radar

Up to mid-upper 20s at coastal locations already

Up to 31 here in sheepshead bay. Looking like we will be spared any ice down here once the precipitation gets started. By that time temps should be above 32 for a while.

Ground colder and longer duration in the city than last Wednesday. Only difference might be if the precip starts later than last Wed which may give the coast time to get air temps above freezing. Although ground temps will take a while longer. Other difference is that it’s a Sunday morning and should have much less traffic on the roads. One final thing, most NYC roads are full of salt since sanitation was salting yesterday for hours after the snow stopped.

What's it showing? A blizzard or sunny and 60's?

Temp was 35 degrees at my house last night before the snow started so ground temps were above freezing, hence the much higher accumulations on the colder surfaces. Had 6-7 inches on the cars, picnic table, etc but only about 3-4 inches on the sidewalk/driveway.

Much less accumulations on paved surfaces here in Brooklyn

6.5 inches here in Sheepshead Bay

The majority of the general public does not know the difference between a winter weather advisory and a winter storm warning. All they hear is "snow is coming" It matters to weather buffs like us

From OKX Twitter feed: Part of the concern with tonight/tomorrow's #snow is the timing. Short range models are signaling the potential for snowfall rates to exceed 1"/hour just as the morning commute gets underway. Treacherous roadway conditions are likely, especially early. If possible, avoid travel!

Latest OKX AFD: SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The 12Z NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are all in good agreement with the track and timing of low pres tracking se of the benchmark Thu ngt into Fri. This would produce a 1-3 inch snowfall west and 2-4 inches east. The fcst follows this thinking. The overall model trend has been east with the sys, so it would not be surprising to see a further ewd trend in future model runs. Any trend w would produce more snow. Because of the trend, and current snow totals blw advy criteria in many places, will not issue an advy with this fcst. The snowfall potential will continue to be highlighted in the hwo and idss briefing products. Most of the snow will occur late Thu ngt into Fri mrng, which will impact the mrng commute.

WWA up for most of NJ.

Agreed. Main moisture transport is well out in the Atlantic (GFS) plus it's a quick mover.

NWS expanded the WWA to include NYC, Nassau and western Suffolk.

Freezing rain/drizzle over much of the area. Even in the city with temps of 33-34, some of the bridges and overpasses are beginning to get slippery. Especially Staten Island crossings.

Flurries or what appears to be more like graupel falling in extreme SW Nassau County in Inwood just east of JFK.

OKX AFD has it summed up good (at least I think so) as of their 4:48pm update: All attention is then turned to the approaching low pressure system. This low will form along a frontal boundary over the southeastern CONUS late tonight as a shortwave trough digs through the Southern Plains. It will then track northeastward and pass just to our south and east. 12z guidance has continued to show the area now being on the far northern edge of the precipitation shield. This is a similar solution to what the GFS has been showing for the past several days. Given the cold air that will work into the area overnight tonight, and the low being far enough to our south and east, any precip that does fall over the area will be in the form of snow. Uncertainty still remains, especially given some dry air that needs to be overcome in the midlevels. This will overall be a minor light snow event. Snowfall totals are expected to be greatest over eastern Long Island, where 1-2 inches are possible. Farther west over northeastern NJ and NYC up to an inch is possible. Snow totals drop off farther north, with the CT coast and southern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley likely seeing less than an inch and far northern locations staying dry. Trends in track will need to be monitored given the nature of the tight gradient in QPF and snowfall. Timing of the event may be the biggest concern. Snow starts in the early morning hours on Monday and will continue through the evening. This could impact the morning commute and potentially the evening commute for eastern Long Island. With temperatures dropping quickly overnight tonight to below freezing, snow is expected to stick right away. Given the uncertainty that surrounds this system, and current light snowfall totals, have decided to hold off on any headlines over our area in collaboration with neighboring offices. Subsequent shifts will have to monitor new guidance and a Winter Weather Advisory may be possible for eastern Long Island. The area will likely be completely dry after 7PM and high pressure will build in behind the departing low. Skies clear quickly from west to east in the late evening and a cold night is expected. Winds will also be decreasing overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes, so there may be several hours of good radiational cooling conditions. This will be the case especially if any areas have a fresh snow cover. Lows Monday night are currently forecast to be in the low teens across the interior and the LI Pine Barrens, mid teens to low 20s elsewhere.

JFK broke their record high temp for the day with 59 degrees. Old record was 57. They could have a couple of inches of snow on the ground by this time tomorrow.

And that's with only 6.5 hours of sun: Dec 27, 2021 9:54 AM -- 4:26 PM 6 hours and 32 minutes

65 at my station now. Impressive even with the southerly wind off the water.