weathermedic

2 inches here in Sheepshead Bay on the cars. 1.75 on the wooden deck and white plastic picnic table.

Wind westerly so not much of an ocean influence.

Hearing of a few slip and falls on the outdoor subway and LIRR station platforms. Roads seem to be okay with the salt. Sanitation has been actively salting in the city most of the afternoon.

Hearing on the scanner of icing conditions in Bronx, Manhattan and northern parts of Queens. Here in southern Brooklyn I am down to 31 with some drizzle. No icing that I can see as of yet.

Was 56 on the car thermometer when I entered the Battery tunnel in Brooklyn. Is 41 now a few blocks up from the tunnel in lower Manhattan

Was 54 at 1:50am. Now 49 with a southeast wind off the water here in Sheepshead Bay.

OKX afternoon AFD: .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The cold front pushes south through the forecast area Friday morning with lowering temperatures falling slowly behind it. One of the challenges for coastal areas regarding freezing rain is that a weak wave of low pressure shifts through nearby which may delay the timing of surface temps falling to freezing and below. For all locations regarding PCPN type, a challenge will be whether, and how quickly, the magnitude (temperature and depth) of the cold nose beneath the warm nose aloft can introduce sleet as a PCPN type. OKX afternoon AFD: Forecast soundings show a relatively shallow cold nose that`s marginally cold enough for the likelihood of liquid aloft refreezing to sleet from the coast northward through around the I-84 corridor. On the other hand, by the time surface temps are falling below freezing for these areas, precip intensity should be lighter which would increase the chances of refreezing (smaller droplets). Temps aloft cool down to a level that would preclude rain or freezing rain late in the day/early evening for most coastal sections, but mid level drying should work against sleet or snow, so no snow or sleet seems likely for the coast. Not much opportunity overall for snow with this setup as temps in the warm nose don`t cool down enough in time to coincide with deep moisture. Best chances of snow will be well NW of the city late morning to early afternoon, but even this is in question since mid levels will be drying with a lack of ice nucleation - so maybe it remains a mix of freezing rain and sleet there into the afternoon. Surface temp forecast was based on a blend raw 2m NAM and GFS temperatures. The colder GFS more closely mimics the HREF ensemble mean with higher res data which picks up more on cold air drainage down the Hudson Valley into the city. With that said, both GFS and NAM have trended a little warmer in this regard from the previous few run cycles. Have decided to add the remainder of the NJ zones, NYC, and parts of LI to the winter wx advisory where at least a few hundredths of an inch of ice accretion is expected tomorrow.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 355 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 NJZ006-107-108-NYZ072>075-078-176>179-041100- /O.EXB.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.220204T1300Z-220205T0000Z/ Hudson-Western Union-Eastern Union-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 355 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Plenty of power lines above ground in the outer boroughs.

This could be one of those times where the Bronx and upper Manhattan and northern Queens get ice accumulation and the southern half of those boroughs along with Brooklyn and Staten Island get plain rain. I've seen it happen before.

In their morning AFD, Upton said watches will be put out with either the evening forecast update tonight or Thu morning's update.

If the location of the arctic high pressure is situated properly with the cold air draining down the Hudson Valley into NYC, that is usually how the city gets cold quicker and stays cold rather than on a northwesterly flow

Ice totals increased as of this morning's updated map.

Light snow now here in Sheepshead Bay. Looks like any accumulating snow is just about done. Have 11 inches here.

From Twitter: Mike Rizzo @Meteor_Mike Ok, that's enough now. Please stop. Yes, the nor'easter 'spawned' another disturbance offshore that's reinforcing some of the snow. (It won't until 3PM - then blowing snow and bitter cold). @News12BX @News12BK

18 degrees with moderate snow. Wind gusted to 34 mph. 8 inches as of 8:30am away from the 2 foot drifts.

From Twitter. ULL looks like it's trying to form east of NJ

Models that depicted two centers of circulation were not that far off from this pic

Seeing several spotter reports of winds in the 50-60 mph range in eastern Suffolk

Just looking at traffic cams, you can see the difference from Manhattan which has much better visibility than Brooklyn and Queens and across Long Island. https://511ny.org/map#TransitRegion-8

Lightning increasing off the coast of North Carolina. Low pressure starting to get it's act together.

Blizzard warning for Suffolk County.

From OKX AFD: Have converted all winter weather watches to warnings, and issued a winter weather advisory for Orange County, NY with all this in mind. In addition, have elected to hold off on any blizzard headlines at this time for eastern LI and southern CT, the areas that are most likely to meet blizzard criteria. Given the increased forecast confidence in only these latest runs, would prefer one more cycle for that upgrade. Regardless, near blizzard conditions are possible for eastern LI and southern CT for a period on Saturday afternoon with this system. Winds will also be an issue as the system nears the area as strong northeast flow dominates as the system deepens in our vicinity. Gusts to 35-45 mph are likely for a period Saturday afternoon, especially for the coastal areas, where occasionally higher gusts are possible. So near blizzard conditions are possible, especially near the coast, where winds/gusts will be most frequent.

I don't think it was mentioned yet but I could be wrong. I am guessing there will be thundersnow in a few places.