weathermedic

.45 of rain so far here at my station

OKX sticking with a mostly rain scenario at the coast. From this morning’s AFD: By Monday night, the upper level low forces the coastal low to rapidly deepen as it passes near the 40N 70 W benchmark. Some model guidance actually has a separate area of low pressure develop over the area in the apex of the inverted trough. This will result in widespread moderate to locally heavy precipitation Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Rain along the coast may be heavy at times through the night. This is likely when a bulk of the precipitation from the event falls with coastal areas possibly seeing as much as 1.5 inches of rainfall from sunset Monday to sunrise Tuesday. There remains a considerable amount of uncertainty as to how the transition to snowfall occurs of the northwestern fringe of the cyclone. The thinking is that mainly rain Monday evening transitions to a rain/snow mix and then primarily snow for the Lower Hudson Valley and portions of interior NE NJ and W Connecticut. As strengthening NW winds advect marginally cool air from the north, the rain/snow transition may make some southward progress toward daybreak Tuesday. There remains a possibility that precipitation for much of the area will be a mix of rain and snow by Tuesday morning and through much of the day on Tuesday with temperatures expected to be in the middle 30s for the coastal areas. As precipitation lightens Tuesday afternoon and evening, the upper level trough passes over the area allowing for a more favorable profile for plain snow for much of the area. Any accumulations at this point should be minimal.

I just passed JFK. It’s a snow/rain mix. Temp down to 36

From OKX evening AFD: NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Guidance has converged for the weak and quick moving low pressure system that will be moving out of the upper midwest and passing to the south of the region tonight. The trend has been for a colder and slightly farther southern track, with mainly snow across the area late this evening and overnight. There may be a brief rain/snow mix at the onset, and transition to snow as the atmospheric column cools. Precipitation will be generally light with weak upper support with a flat and broad shortwave moving through the area. Timing of the precipitation is also rather consistent with onset around 1000 PM and ending by 500 AM, with the bulk falling in a 3 hour window midnight to 300 AM. The onset may be delayed as the lower layers are dry, and will have to be overcome. The band of snowfall is also rather narrow, with a sharp gradient of no snow to 1 to 1 1/2 inches of snowfall. And locations to the northeast and east likely see no to very little precipitation. Therefore, any minor shift in the track of the low will have impacts to where the heaviest snow will occur. With the ending time of snow toward Tuesday morning, the morning commute will be impacted and this is highlighted in the hazardous weather outlook (HWOOKX).

Sleeting in midtown

58 at my station

NWS OKX AFD: The northern branch of the polar jet becomes the dominant stream this period as a quick shot of arctic air arrives Friday into Saturday. However, global models while still very cold, have trended a bit warmer. This will be the coldest airmass since Christmas eve with temperatures Friday night and Saturday about 20 degrees below normal. The arctic cold front slips through Friday morning with the coldest air arriving Friday night with 85h temps approaching -25C. With no downstream block over the north Atlantic, this will be a fleeting airmass. In addition, with strong NW winds behind the cold front, gusts of 25 to 35 mph will produce wind chills likely at advisory levels for much of the area. The threat for warning level criteria inland is diminishing. Lows Friday night inland are forecast to drop to around zero with the single digits to around 10 at the coast. Highs Saturday are forecast to range from the mid and upper teens inland, to around 20 at the coast. This is about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than 24h ago.

NWS forecasting a low of 33 for the city tonight. It's 40 degrees now at 8:40pm with a mostly overcast sky. Don't think we cool down to 33. Maybe 37-38. Precip gets in mid-late morning. Temps will be rising by then. Still can snow but not holding my breath.

Seems like the snow shower/flurries over parts of the city keeps on back building over the same area.

Just had some sleet mixed in here with the rain at work in southwestern Nassau County just east of JFK airport.

.35 inches of rain so far and 50 degrees at my station....early November weather

A glimmer of hope? From Judah Cohen via Twitter: Looks to me we're on track for another #PolarVortex stretching event for 2nd week of January that typically delivers more wintry weather to Eastern US but could there be more?

54 with a southerly wind off the water at my station.

Any snow reports from the north fork area of Suffolk County? Radar shows it’s been snowing from ocean/sound effect bands all night and still is.

Barometer at my station down to 985mb

1.01 inches of rain at my station. Waiting for the arctic front.

Many locations forecasted to have moderate to major coastal flooding: Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour. PECONIC RIVER AT RIVERHEAD NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.6 FT, MODERATE 6.3 FT, MAJOR 7.1 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.2 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/10 PM 2.7/ 3.2 -0.8/-0.2 0.2/ 0.7 1 NONE 22/10 AM 3.7/ 4.2 0.4/ 0.9 0.1/ 0.6 1-2 NONE 23/01 AM 3.9/ 4.4 0.5/ 1.0 1.7/ 2.2 2 NONE 23/11 AM 6.9/ 7.4 3.5/ 4.0 3.1/ 3.6 0-2 MOD-MAJ ORIENT HARBOR AT ORIENT POINT NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.7 FT, MODERATE 5.7 FT, MAJOR 6.7 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/08 PM 1.9/ 2.3 -1.1/-0.7 -0.3/ 0.2 1 NONE 22/09 AM 2.8/ 3.4 -0.2/ 0.3 -0.6/-0.1 1-2 NONE 22/09 PM 2.3/ 2.8 -0.7/-0.2 0.1/ 0.6 2 NONE 23/10 AM 5.7/ 6.2 2.7/ 3.2 2.3/ 2.8 3-6 MODERATE FLAX POND AT OLD FIELD NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 9.2 FT, MODERATE 10.2 FT, MAJOR 12.2 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.9 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 4.9 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/09 PM 6.2/ 6.7 -1.1/-0.7 -0.2/ 0.2 1 NONE 22/09 AM 7.4/ 7.9 0.1/ 0.6 -0.2/ 0.2 1 NONE 22/10 PM 7.2/ 7.7 -0.2/ 0.3 0.5/ 1.0 2 NONE 23/10 AM 11.0/11.5 3.7/ 4.2 3.2/ 3.7 0 MODERATE GREAT SOUTH BAY AT LINDENHURST NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.1 FT, MODERATE 3.6 FT, MAJOR 4.1 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/08 PM 1.3/ 1.8 -0.3/ 0.2 0.2/ 0.7 1 NONE 22/08 AM 1.6/ 2.0 0.0/ 0.5 0.1/ 0.6 1 NONE 23/09 AM 3.9/ 4.4 2.2/ 2.7 2.3/ 2.8 1-3 MAJOR GREAT SOUTH BAY AT WEST SAYVILLE NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/09 PM 1.1/ 1.6 -0.3/ 0.2 0.2/ 0.8 1 NONE 22/09 AM 1.4/ 1.9 0.0/ 0.5 0.2/ 0.8 1-2 NONE 23/10 AM 3.7/ 4.2 2.2/ 2.7 2.5/ 3.0 1-3 MOD-MAJ GREAT SOUTH BAY AT WATCH HILL/FIRE ISLAND NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.1 FT, MODERATE 3.6 FT, MAJOR 4.1 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/09 PM 0.9/ 1.4 -0.7/-0.2 0.0/ 0.5 1 NONE 22/10 AM 1.2/ 1.7 -0.3/ 0.2 -0.2/ 0.2 1-2 NONE 23/10 AM 3.5/ 4.0 2.0/ 2.5 2.1/ 2.6 0 MODERATE MORICHES BAY AT EAST MORICHES NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.4 FT, MODERATE 5.4 FT, MAJOR 6.4 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/07 PM 1.7/ 2.2 -0.8/-0.2 0.2/ 0.7 1 NONE 22/08 AM 2.2/ 2.7 -0.2/ 0.3 0.0/ 0.5 1-2 NONE 22/08 PM 2.1/ 2.6 -0.3/ 0.2 0.5/ 1.0 2 NONE 23/08 AM 5.2/ 5.7 2.7/ 3.2 2.8/ 3.4 2-3 MODERATE SHINNECOCK BAY AT PONQUOQUE NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.9 FT, MODERATE 5.9 FT, MAJOR 6.9 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/06 PM 2.7/ 3.2 -0.6/-0.1 0.2/ 0.7 1 NONE 22/06 AM 3.6/ 4.1 0.4/ 0.9 0.0/ 0.5 1 NONE 22/07 PM 3.1/ 3.6 -0.2/ 0.3 0.5/ 1.0 2 NONE 23/07 AM 6.2/ 6.8 3.1/ 3.6 2.6/ 3.1 3 MODERATE FORT POND BAY AT MONTAUK NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.3 FT, MAJOR 7.0 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 2.8 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/07 PM 1.9/ 2.3 -0.7/-0.2 0.1/ 0.6 1 NONE 22/07 AM 2.7/ 3.2 0.2/ 0.8 -0.2/ 0.3 1-2 NONE 22/08 PM 2.2/ 2.7 -0.3/ 0.2 0.4/ 0.9 2-3 NONE 23/08 AM 5.2/ 5.7 2.7/ 3.2 2.2/ 2.7 4-5 MODERATE ROCKAWAY INLET NY NEAR FLOYD BENNETT FIELD NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.3 FT, MODERATE 8.3 FT, MAJOR 9.3 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/05 PM 4.6/ 5.1 -1.1/-0.6 0.2/ 0.7 1 NONE 22/06 AM 6.1/ 6.6 0.5/ 1.0 -0.2/ 0.3 1 NONE 22/07 PM 5.2/ 5.7 -0.3/ 0.2 0.5/ 1.0 2-3 NONE 23/07 AM 8.7/ 9.2 3.1/ 3.6 2.2/ 2.7 4-5 MODERATE JAMAICA BAY AT INWOOD NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.5 FT, MODERATE 8.2 FT, MAJOR 9.0 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.3 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/06 PM 5.1/ 5.6 -1.1/-0.7 0.1/ 0.6 0 NONE 22/07 AM 6.6/ 7.1 0.4/ 0.9 -0.2/ 0.3 0 NONE 22/07 PM 5.7/ 6.2 -0.6/-0.1 0.4/ 0.9 0 NONE 23/08 AM 8.9/ 9.4 2.7/ 3.2 1.9/ 2.3 0 MAJOR EAST ROCKAWAY INLET AT ATLANTIC BEACH NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 7.0 FT, MAJOR 8.0 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/06 PM 4.0/ 4.5 -1.0/-0.5 0.0/ 0.5 1 NONE 22/06 AM 5.2/ 5.7 0.2/ 0.8 -0.2/ 0.2 1-2 NONE 22/07 PM 4.5/ 5.0 -0.5/ 0.0 0.4/ 0.9 3-4 NONE 23/07 AM 7.7/ 8.2 2.7/ 3.2 2.1/ 2.6 6-7 MOD-MAJ REYNOLDS CHANNEL AT POINT LOOKOUT NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.8 FT, MODERATE 6.8 FT, MAJOR 7.8 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/06 PM 3.9/ 4.4 -0.9/-0.4 0.2/ 0.7 1 NONE 22/06 AM 5.1/ 5.6 0.4/ 0.9 0.0/ 0.5 1-2 NONE 22/07 PM 4.2/ 4.7 -0.5/ 0.0 0.5/ 1.0 4-5 NONE 23/07 AM 7.4/ 7.9 2.7/ 3.2 2.1/ 2.6 8-10 MOD-MAJ HUDSON BAY AT FREEPORT NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 6.5 FT, MAJOR 7.2 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.4 FT, MODERATE 1.9 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/06 PM 4.0/ 4.5 -0.7/-0.2 1.2/ 1.7 1 NONE 22/07 AM 4.7/ 5.2 0.2/ 0.7 1.1/ 1.6 1 NONE 22/07 PM 4.4/ 4.9 -0.2/ 0.2 1.5/ 2.0 1-2 NONE 23/07 AM 7.0/ 7.5 2.3/ 2.8 3.2/ 3.7 1-2 MAJOR

Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service New York NY 357 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 NYZ079>081-178-179-220945- /O.UPG.KOKX.CF.A.0002.221223T1000Z-221224T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.CF.W.0004.221223T1000Z-221224T0600Z/ Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 357 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...One to two and a half feet, locally three feet of inundation above ground level expected in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline. * WHERE...Northeast Suffolk, Southwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk, Southern Queens and Southern Nassau Counties. * WHEN...From 5 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday. * COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Widespread moderate to localized major flooding of vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline is becoming likely, with 1 to 2 1/2 feet, locally 3 ft, of inundation above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. This would result in numerous road closures and cause widespread flooding of low lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns and homes/businesses with basements near the waterfront. A few buildings and homes near the waterfront could experience flooding. Vehicles parked in vulnerable areas near the waterfront will likely become flooded. Flooding could also extend inland from the waterfront along tidal rivers and bays. * SHORELINE IMPACTS...Along the ocean front, 10 to 15 ft breakers (highest across eastern Long Island) will likely result in widespread beach flooding and erosion during the times of high tide. Areas of dune base erosion and localized overwashes are likely as well. Along the south shore of the north fork of Long Island, particularly Orient Point, 3 to 6 ft breaking waves will result in beach erosion and erosion of dune structures. Wave splashover of dune structures and bulkheads is possible in spots, which would cause flooding of roadways and vulnerable structures behind protective structures. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The potential for locally major flooding on Friday morning will depend on the direction and strength of winds through the time of high tide. This will be refined over the next 24 hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth.

Upton waiting (as they should) to commit to anything for the late week system: There remains a high degree of uncertainty for what may happen late week, but the current thinking is that shortwave energy associated with the cold front of the large cyclone over the Great Plains shifts toward the East Coast on Wednesday night and into Thursday. This may result in the redevelopment of a deepening surface cyclone off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday and into Friday. There remains questions as to the degree of deepening, placement of the low in relation to our area, surface temperatures, interactions with the trough that remains to the east of the area, as well as the timing of development. Additionally, there isn't much eastward progression with the upper-level flow so the low may meander a bit into the weekend. As a result, this remains a fairly uncertain forecast with any specifics difficult to pinpoint at this time. For now, capped PoPs at chance for much of the timeframe with a mix of rain and snow possible for much of the area.

Finished with 1.25 inches of rain. Barometer bottomed out at 29.40 (995.6 mil) earlier this morning.

1.15 inches of rain so far here.

1.15 inches with the initial bands of rain here.

Squall line on radar in northwest NJ now heading east.

Finished with 4.20 inches at my station in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn. More than July, August and September combined.

.83 in the bucket today. 2.29 inches total since 9/30. Temp down to 63 in the house tonight. Had to turn on the heat for a bit.