bluewave

The snowbelt areas to the east of Cleveland have been holding their own with the shift in the storm tracks. Places like Erie, PA are positioned better for all the storm tracks through the Great Lakes. It’s areas to the east like State College that are on the warmer side of the storm tracks now which have seen a steep decline.

In 2017 and 2019 we were closer to the core of the cold. So NYC was able to have record lows in the 23° to 25° range. That’s why I mentioned yesterday that this is similar to recent cold shots with the coldest departures and record lows going to our south like last January. New York-Central Park Area, NYPeriod of record: 1869-01-01 through 2025-11-09DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 11/10 25 in 2017 27 in 1914 29 in 2004+ 11/11 24 in 2017 28 in 1933 28 in 1926+ 11/12 25 in 2019 26 in 1926 27 in 1920 11/13 23 in 2019 24 in 1986 25 in 1920

Models have a -4 sigma upper low crossing the area tomorrow with record low 500 mb temperatures just to our south. There could even be a few wet snowflakes in mix getting close to the coast. Unusually deep mixing to 700mb gives the potential for momentum transfer of higher winds to surface. So don’t be surprised if we see some 40-50 mph gusts. NYC will probably get very close to its first freeze of the season around 32-33°.

I will take it as small sign of progress if we can actually get a transfer to go south of Long Island for a change without the storm getting suppressed in later runs.

Parts of the area were around 70° a few times in the last few days which were well above guidance from the forecasts 6-10 days ago which were too cold. I think what you are referencing about this week into mid-month is that we had a recent short term strong wave break leading to a strong block. So this drove a much stronger TPV into the Great Lakes with a colder forecast for the coming week. Once in a while we do get a colder period than originally forecast. But I am accurately describing that the core of the cold will miss the area again. Has nothing to do with lack of enjoyment or agendas. I don’t think that you have a warm agenda after making this post around a week ago. I am cutting you some slack since it was before the models started showing such a strong blocking pattern. So maybe you can find it in your heart to go easy on my description of the mid-month period before the recent model shift to colder with the stronger blocking. This is your post looks like a solidly above normal month ahead. Not by a lot, but it won’t be close to normal. New normal old normal whatever. if I still have my outdoor shower going at the beginning of November with no end date in sight, that’s a warm intro to winter

This is one of the more impressive lake effect events on Lake Michigan this time of year as a lobe of the TPV tracks behind the synoptic low just east of the Great Lakes.

It was still too brief a phase 8 last January to significantly weaken the Pacific Jet. So the kicker shortwaves coming into Western North America prevented the record Gulf Coast snowstorm from coming up the coast. Our last impressive MJO 8 was back in January 2022 allowing the Pacific Jet to relax and the great snowstorms to affect ACY-ISP-BOS.

Yeah, the Great Lakes have been getting the heaviest snows with all these cutter and hugger storm tracks in recent years.

The GEFS last December was hinting at a big push into 7. But the MJO slowed in the warmer 5-6 phases mid to late December with the +EPO warm up. We did briefly get a MJO 8 last January but it was more pronounced in 1-3. Then the MJO missed phase 8 last February when we had the first 5 sigma Greenland block link up with the Southeast ridge.

Looks like a version of last January when the coldest departures went to our south also. But this time we have more warmth in the West. Plus the surface high will crest over the south while we get the flow off the still very warm Great Lakes.

We’ll see if this can trigger a strong enough wave reflection to lead to more of a -WPO -EPO from late November into early December. Then the main question is will it be able to weaken the Pacific Jet enough. Last December we saw how the stronger -EPO didn’t really weaken the jet enough so we got a mid to late December +EPO reversal. Remember none of the models got this +EPO reversal later in December from early in December. So we’ll just have to monitor the Pacific Jet once we actually get into December. Plus we have seen warm ups every December since 2011 from the 17th to 25th that most of the long range models missed. Even during colder starts to the month.

Not really seeing much deviation in this dominant northern stream track through the lakes or the hugger tracks in the near term. Colder air rushes in behind the storm in a few days. Then the following week we warm back up closer to seasonal levels or even above. EPS Nov 10 to 17 EPS Nov 17 to 24

Matches the pattern of a step-down following the other 160+ ACE years like we had in 2024. While we have been in a new RI and Cat 5 hurricane era last decade, we haven’t been able to replicate the 2003-2005 high ACE 3 years in a row. But it also means that we haven’t had and really low ACE years like 2013 and 2014. Plus we have been getting the activity lulls from late August into early September before very strong late seasons.

The models have had a big shift in the last several days. We are going to get strong blocking next few week. I just posted in the main ENSO thread. Could also be some type of disruption to the SPV. The million dollar question is if it will in some way be strong enough to shift this Pacific Jet pattern heading into December leading to more benchmark tracks? December is the key for us during La Niñas. Out of the last 15 La Ninas, the 4” snowfall rule has worked for NYC, LGA, and EWR 14 times. Under 4” in December went onto below normal snowfall like last winter. But if we can find a way to get over 4” this December then we would have a shot a an average to above average snowfall season. We should know pretty soon in December since all the snow has been frontloaded before December 21st since 2011. Not sure yet if this will work out in our favor, but at least we have something to watch.

Great radiational cooling here just east of KHVN. This was my first freeze of the season. Down to 28.8° on my new Ambient thermometer.

My guess is that the blocking and potential warming of the stratosphere is linked to this extreme warmth and lack of sea ice in the Kara and Barents areas. A recent study showed this potential sea ice to stratosphere link. So it’s looking like this will follow the Siberian precursor type of stratosphere event as outlined by Mike Ventrice. We will have to wait and see what the official designation of this potential stratospheric event is. The million dollar question is if this event will have the potential to in some way disrupt the Pacific Jet and lead to more of a benchmark type storm track into early December? https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL107221 Key Points Barents-Kara Seas (BKS) sea ice loss modulates the impacts of autumn SPV stretching events on subsequent Siberian cooling Reduced BKS sea ice enhances the upward propagation of waves into the stratosphere over the Euro-Siberian sector Descent of the anomalous stratospheric wave-2 ridge bridges the SPV stretching events and Siberian cooling under low sea ice conditions

Such a beautiful part of the country. Saranac Lake and surrounding areas are a great vacation spot. It would be fun to take one of these small airlines up there.

Nice pattern coming up for the higher elevations and the Great Lakes snow belts.

This has been the lowest 7 year run on record for the entire I-95 corridor from DCA to BOS. NYC has averaged 14.9” over this period. The last time NYC dipped under 18” for a 7 year stretch was back in 1992 during a much colder climate when they averaged 16.3”. So NYC able to have that 7 year to 10 year average jump back into 20s in the next few years since it was cold enough for a 50” season in 93-94 and a 75” season in 95-96. NYC hasn’t had a cold enough winter for 50” of snow since 14-15 which was before the big temperature jump in 15-16. Its unlikely NYC sees a 50” season and a 75” season absent a volcanic cooling not seen since the early 1800s during the remainder of the 2020s. So having both warm storm tracks and warm average winter temperatures has lead to this record low 7 year totals. That snow drought ending in 1992 was mostly a function of drier winters since the winter average temperatures were significantly colder than today. All the other prior snow droughts before 1992 when the NYC averaged under 20” for a 7 year stretch were also followed by 50” seasons. So those were the markers that the winter dry patterns were ending. The recent combination of record winter warmth and storm track warmth is a first for NYC.

That was a much snowier era due to the numerous benchmark storm tracks in the mix. NYC Metro needs the benchmark track to reach normal snowfall these days. When it was much colder prior to the 1990s, we could count on some seasons reaching average without a big benchmark KU event. Since we had clippers which went to our south without getting suppressed and huggers which had enough cold for a good front end snow before changeover. Your area is positioned better than NYC during changeovers since interior NJ is colder both at the surface and aloft. So you can gain more snow out of a marginal storm track. NYC 1987-2002 average…21.8”……1987-2002….14.9”

What I said is that our new normals since 2018-2019 have been in that lower range around 15”. We are going to need a shift back to benchmark storm tracks at least occasionally for totals getting back above 20” some winters. If we don’t see significant shifts to this pattern over the next 5-10 years, then it will signal that the new average will settle under 20” instead of the mid 20s which has been the very long term average. I came out with 3 potential scenarios a while back. 1) Snowfall continues at these lower levels and only during an occasional season like we had back in 2021 does it get back above average. 2) Snowfall experiences a temporary bounce in the remainder off the 2020s with more benchmark storm tracks than we have had in the last 7 winters. But it could only be a temporary bounce as warming continues. Steeper declines resume during the 2030s. 3) Largest volcanic eruption in hundreds of years cools the planet for 3-7 years with the potential for well above average snowfall. Very low skill forecast since volcanism on this scale is very challenging to forecast ahead of time and VEI 7 events are very rare.

I remember some past reports with the elevation reported. It’s always interesting to see how much wind is at that level. It would be great if they put a Davis weather station on the top of 432 Park at 1397 feet which is having all the structural issues from excess swaying. This way they could really see how much more wind is verifying at that level than the surface reports.

It’s the highest Davis weather station on Long Island at 390 feet on the roof of the health sciences center. https://you.stonybrook.edu/weather/stations/health-sciences-center/ Wind Gust: 70 mph ( 61 kts) https://www.somassbu.org/wx/DATA/HSC/#:~:text=Latitude N 40° 54,06' 58" Elevation 390 ft&text=Welcome to Located at Stony,cloudy with little temperature change. Health Sciences Center Weather Station weather Latitude N 40° 54' 35" Longitude W 73° 06' 58" Elevation 390 ft Dawn: 11:01 Sunrise: 11:29 Moonrise: 22:21 Dusk: 22:11 Sunset: 21:42 Moonset: 12:58 Daylight: 11:10 Day length: 10:13 Moon Phase: Waning Gibbous Welcome to Located at Stony Brook University. The weather station in use is the Davis Vantage Pro2, and these pages are updated every 1 minutes. The meteorological day used at this station ends at midnight.

The Greenland block linked up with the Southeast ridge at storm time last winter when it counted. This chart below shows the 11 days last winter when the heaviest precipitation of .20 or more fell from Philly to Boston. While last winter was colder than recent winters, the cold only arrived behind the major Great Lakes cutters which produced most of the precipitation. The 11 day winter 2024-2025 composite when most of the precipitation fell

It appears that the WPAC warm pool in conjunction with the cold over Siberia promotes the very fast Pacific Jet along the gradient between the two extremes of warm and cold. While we have observed the warm pool peak diminishing a bit in magnitude from the summers into winters, enough warmth is retained both on the deep subsurface and the surface to maintain the steep temperature gradient. I would like to see if we can at least get a few weeks when a -WPO links with a +TNH to know if there is at least some potential to weaken the Pacific Jet enough to allow a few benchmark storm tracks. But we won’t know if it’s possible until we can actually verify a potential weakening of the jet.