bluewave

The drier conditions have been probably helping out with this record heat for so late in the season. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 442 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 89 DEGREES TODAY AT NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 87 DEGREES, SET IN 2014. RECORDS FOR THE NEWARK NJ AREA GO BACK TO 1931. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI). EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 530 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 85 DEGREES TODAY AT LAGUARDIA AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 84 DEGREES, LAST SET IN 2014 AS WELL AS 1954. RECORDS FOR THE LAGUARDIA NY AREA GO BACK TO 1939. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI). RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 418 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 84 DEGREES TODAY, SEPTEMBER 28TH AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 80 DEGREES, SET IN 2015. RECORDS FOR THE ISLIP NY AREA GO BACK TO 1963. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI). RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 0155 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ALLENTOWN PA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 86 DEGREES WAS SET AT ALLENTOWN PA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 85 DEGREES SET IN 1941. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 0155 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT READING PA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS SET AT READING PA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86 DEGREES SET IN 1941 AND 1943. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 0440 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT GLENS FALLS NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET AT GLENS FALLS NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 82 DEGREES SET IN 1959.

It’s good news for them that they have been removing sulfur dioxide at the coal plants and leading to cleaner air than they had just a decade ago. But this could also be a part of the puzzle as to why we have seen a sudden jump in global temperatures. The cleaner air could also mean less of an imperative for them to replace coal pants with renewables so we may see a long plateau but not a decline in coal burning. https://www.wired.com/story/in-an-odd-twist-cleaner-air-in-china-may-mean-a-warmer-earth/ OVER THE PAST 15 years, Chinese officials saved the lives of an estimated more than 200,000 residents by reducing the air pollution from coal-fired power plants. But this public health campaign has an unfortunate side effect: The drop in pollutants is helping warm the planet. https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/china-has-reduced-sulphur-dioxide-emissions-by-more-than-two-thirds-in-the-last-15-years

Really impressive to get 12 Category 5 hurricanes in a decade.

This was the point that I made back in late August. Anytime we have had a cooldown like in August from June and July, the rebound warmer from the cooldown is of a greater magnitude than the cooldown was. Several areas had top 10 warmth from June into July. But the August average temperatures did reach top 10 coolest. Now much of the area will finish September in the top 10 or top 20 warmest. The long range models underestimated this warm up. But understanding this temperature pattern over the last decade can see where the model bias lies and forecast accordingly. The warm spots reached 90° earlier in the month and several stations had record highs and low maxes over the last 10 days.

Germany is one of the few high population and heavy industry nations that has reached 50-60% wind and solar usage on the planet. So the challenges they have faced getting closer to 100% are informative for the rest of the world that wants to go this route. They are 25 years into their energy transition.

Germany has been struggling due to the cost and challenge of building out a smart grid and long transmission lines which are necessary for wider renewable energy implementation.

The dense tree growth is keeping the under 100° days record going at 4818. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 100 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2025-09-26 1 4818 2012-07-19 through 2025-09-26 2 4609 1881-11-11 through 1894-06-24 3 4022 1966-07-14 through 1977-07-17 4 4015 1980-07-22 through 1991-07-19 5 3261 1957-07-23 through 1966-06-26 6 3252 2001-08-10 through 2010-07-05 7 2904 1918-08-08 through 1926-07-20 8 2844 1903-09-19 through 1911-07-02 9 2219 1911-07-04 through 1917-07-30 10 1475 1944-08-12 through 1948-08-25

Monthly Data for June 2025 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 103 NJ OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 103 NJ ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 102 NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 102 DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 101 DE WILMINGTON AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 101 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 101 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 101 PA MARTINS CREEK COOP 101 NJ LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 101 MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 100 PA READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 DE DOVER COOP 100 NJ SALEM COOP 100 PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 100 NJ SEABROOK FARMS COOP 100 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 100 NJ PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 100 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 100 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ MARGATE COOP 100 NJ EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 100 NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 100 NJ MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 100

It’s tougher these days to reach 100° in September like in 1983 since the heat has been peaking earlier in the summer. We have been seeing more 100° days in June. The area hasn’t reached 100° after August 12th since 2005 and September 1st since 1993. Monthly Data for September 1983 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA PHILADELPHIA WBAN 102 NJ HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 102 NJ EWING 3 WNW COOP 101 MD CENTREVILLE COOP 100 MD CHESTERTOWN COOP 100 DE BRIDGEVILLE 1 NW COOP 100 DE NEWARK AG FARM COOP 100 DE MIDDLETOWN 3 E COOP 100 PA MARCUS HOOK COOP 100 NJ SHILOH COOP 100 DE WILMINGTON AIRPORT WBAN 100 PA DEVAULT 1 W COOP 100 PA NORRISTOWN COOP 100 PA READING 4 NNW COOP 100 NJ AUDUBON COOP 100 NJ LAMBERTVILLE COOP 100 Monthly Data for September 1983 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 100 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 100

Several stations had top 10 warmest September temperatures so far without that high of a departure since the new climate normals are so warm. Even the -0.4 at LGA is still the 13th warmest September temperature so far. 70° Septembers have become much more common than they used to be. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 70.9 0 2 2005 70.2 0 3 2018 69.8 0 4 2021 69.6 0 - 1980 69.6 0 5 2025 69.3 4 6 2017 69.0 0 - 2011 69.0 0 7 2016 68.9 0 8 2023 68.6 0 - 1998 68.6 0 9 2010 68.3 0 10 2022 68.2 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2000 75.0 26 2 1961 70.2 0 3 2021 70.1 0 4 2018 69.4 0 5 2023 69.2 0 6 2015 69.1 0 - 2011 69.1 0 7 2025 68.9 4 - 2010 68.9 0 8 2022 68.7 0 9 1971 68.5 0 10 1977 68.3 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2018 66.8 0 2 2015 66.5 0 3 2011 65.9 0 4 2021 65.7 0 5 2025 65.5 4 - 2005 65.5 0 6 2014 65.2 0 7 2017 65.1 0 8 2019 65.0 0 9 2016 64.6 8 10 2010 64.5 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 69.8 0 2 2018 69.4 0 3 2016 68.7 0 - 2005 68.7 0 4 2025 67.9 4 - 2011 67.9 0 5 2019 67.8 0 6 2017 67.6 0 7 2023 67.4 0 8 2021 67.3 0 9 2010 67.0 0 - 2004 67.0 0 10 2007 66.8 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2005 74.9 0 2 2015 74.1 0 3 2016 73.8 0 4 1961 73.6 0 5 2007 73.0 0 6 2018 72.8 0 7 2021 72.7 0 8 2010 72.5 0 - 1959 72.5 0 9 2019 72.1 0 10 1998 71.6 0 11 2017 71.5 0 12 2002 71.3 0 13 2025 71.1 4 - 2020 71.1 0 14 2023 71.0 0 15 2022 70.9 0

Several stations had a warmer departure than Newark did this month. HVN…+2.2 PHL….+2.1 FWN….+2.0 ISP…….+1.7 SMQ…..+1.4 MPO….+1.4 EWR…..+1.3 HPN…..+1.1 TTN…..+0.6 POU…..+0.5 NYC……+0.3 JFK……..0.0 LGA…….-0.4 BDR…….-0.5

Multiple record warm high and low temperatures at Islip in late September have raised it to the 5th warmest September on record. Numerous top 10 warmest finishes in recent years. Since the new 1991-2020 climate normals are so warm, it only took a +1.7 departure to reach a top 10 warmest ranking. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0432 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 85 DEGREES SET IN 1970. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 234 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2025 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY... THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 70 DEGREES WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24 AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF 69 DEGREES, SET IN 1970. RECORDS FOR THE ISLIP NY AREA GO BACK TO 1963. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0433 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 85 DEGREES SET IN 1983. RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 70.9 0 2 2005 70.2 0 3 2018 69.8 0 4 2021 69.6 0 - 1980 69.6 0 5 2025 69.3 4 6 2017 69.0 0 - 2011 69.0 0 7 2016 68.9 0 8 2023 68.6 0 - 1998 68.6 0 9 2010 68.3 0 10 2022 68.2 0

Yeah, those surface SSTs are very impressive. They recently helped to drive the 4 sigma jet streak near the Aleutians when combined with the record cold in Siberia. Just a tremendous thermal gradient. So we are currently getting the big EPO and PNA volatile swings as the shortwaves are racing through the very fast Pacific flow. But they are only the tip of the iceberg since there is so much stored heat below the surface. This deep reservoir of warmth contributed to the record Pacific Jet last winter even though there was the deepest trough in 25 years east of Japan. Past instances of strong troughs east of Japan had much colder SSTs and a much weaker Pacific Jet. But the surface SSTs hardly cooled which maintained the strong SST gradient and faster Pacific flow with the record cold in Siberia. So it gave us the warm storm track through the Great Lakes. Going forward I am trying to find other areas which can offset this dominant climate feature since 2018-2019. But it’s still a work in progress. The last time we were able to push back against this feature was in January 2022. It took the MJO 8 tropical forcing to disrupt the pattern for a month. I will be happy if we can find another competing source of forcing in the coming years to help the snowfall bounce even a little above the 2019 to 2025 record seven year lows. But it may be a challenging task with that massive WPAC heat engine. This cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track has become very persistent since the 2018-2019 winter when the rapid SST warming took of in the WPAC.

The one certainty is that the global temperatures will continue to rise as China keeps burning so much coal. For now, the world isn’t performing an energy transition but an energy addition, where renewables top up oil, gas and coal. Regardless of well-intended green aspirations, that will remain the case for years, if not decades, unless governments impose significant changes. https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-end-of-fossil-fuel-era-it-s-nowhere-near-20250911-p5mudo.html

Many stations had two consecutive lows of 70° on the 24th and 25th. This is the 2nd latest on record for spots like Islip. The lastest was 10-08 and 10-09 back in 2017. Islip Area, NYPeriod of record: 1963-09-05 through 2025-09-25 Highest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 9/24 70 in 2025 69 in 1970 67 in 2011+ 9/25 72 in 1970 71 in 2025 67 in 2011 10/8 72 in 2005 71 in 2017 67 in 1990 10/9 71 in 2017 69 in 1990 62 in 2018+

100° days have been arriving earlier in recent years making June 100° heat more common than late August into September.

Yeah, it was just something that you got used to living in Long Beach being right under the approach to JFK. The planes ultimately will have to flyover someone’s neighborhood with how busy JFK and LGA are. I hope they can change things up a bit to make the noise a little lower in your area.

The new RRFS A has been maintaining that trajectory for days now with the heaviest focused to our NW. It’s still considered an experimental forecast so doesn’t really get included in the mix during forecast discussions. It could be that the warmer conditions with the record 70° lows resulted in the front stalling a little more to the NW of the very wet models like the Canadian suite focusing the max right through our area. So the stalled front would up further north than the wetter models.

Why do you think I am talking about your forecasts? If I had a question for you then I would ask you directly. The negative modes of those indices weren’t strong enough last winter to prevent the storm tracks on the wettest .20+ precipitation days from Philly to Boston from cutting through the Eastern Great Lakes. Your perception of those modes were from a colder era when they were more effective at driving colder storm tracks to our south when the Pacific Jet was weaker. For the general pattern since 18-19 to change we would need to see the Pacific Jet relax and stop producing the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. Hard to believe our last effective wide scale relaxation of this pattern was in January 2022 with the great MJO 8 pattern.

It’s certainly underperforming model forecasts as this dry pattern since last fall has been very persistent.

This was the 7th latest 70° minimum at Islip. 269 SXUS71 KOKX 250637 RERISP RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 234 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2025 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY... THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 70 DEGREES WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24 AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF 69 DEGREES, SET IN 1970. RECORDS FOR THE ISLIP NY AREA GO BACK TO 1963. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI). First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1990 06-23 (1990) 70 10-13 (1990) 70 111 2018 06-19 (2018) 70 10-11 (2018) 70 113 2017 06-23 (2017) 71 10-09 (2017) 71 107 2005 06-14 (2005) 70 10-08 (2005) 72 115 2010 06-24 (2010) 73 09-30 (2010) 70 97 1970 07-10 (1970) 70 09-25 (1970) 72 76 2019 06-29 (2019) 73 09-24(2025) 70 85

We maintained the -EPO and -WPO throughout the 13-14 and 14-15 seasons. The Pacific Jet was much weaker so frequent shortwaves weren’t constantly lowering heights in the region. Notice how much lower the -EPO and -WPO domain 500mb heights were in 2025 than 2014 with the much stronger Pacific Jet. Also look how the subtraction of 2025 from 2014 resembled 2024. Much stronger ridge last winter near Hudson Bay than 2014. This is exactly where the ridge was during 2024.

I would spend half the time looking out of the windows of Lindell School which was right on the bay and under the flight landing path to JFK near the edge of Lawrence Marsh. We would also have the really big barges going by since that was such a busy waterway. I thought it was the coolest thing when the bay was nearly frozen across during all the cold winters growing up back in Long Beach.

I actually got used to being right under the flight path for planes landing at JFK when I was back in Long Beach. But it was hard to ignore the Concorde which flew over my house every morning shortly after 9am coming into JFK. But kids think that kind of stuff if pretty cool anyway. I live near a much smaller airport now and the flight path doesn’t go directly over my house. But it’s really cool walking around the airport and seeing all the takeoffs and landings. There is a dirt lot where the locals park to watch all the flights landing and taking off. I still enjoy the low flyovers when walking on the sidewalk which crosses directly under the planes just off the end of the runway. I have noticed that the Boeing 737 is a much louder jet than the Airbus A 220. The airbus has more of a higher pitched whine and the Boeing is more of a deep roar. Had friends in the aviation business that would get to ride the jump seats on flights.

You are a very funny guy and appreciate the levity. But it’s been difficult to sustain any wall to wall DJF -EPO -WPO patterns since 2018-2019. It was much easier to lock in the -EPOs and -WPOs from December to March in 2013 to 2015 when the WPAC was much colder and the jet stream weaker. This allowed the NEPAC blocking to extend through the season since the weaker jet wasn’t constantly lowering heights with repeated shortwaves eroding the ridge from the west. As long as we have the enormous WPAC warm pool above and below the surface, the gradient between Siberia and the WPAC will drive these faster jet streams and frequent extensions. So what we are beginning to see now with the big EPO reversal this month is just a microcosm of the larger pattern since 2018-2019. The EPO reversal last year from late November into December was much more impressive. It’s actually been easier to sustain the NEPAC blocking during the summers since 2018 than during the winters. My guess is that this is due to the gradient between Siberia and the WPAC being much weaker during the summer. November 2024 into December 2024 -EPO couldn’t lock in and the daily +EPO max in late December was more impressive than the -EPO min in late November. Major Jet max and extension sent multiple shortwaves into the EPO domain lowering heights. 2024 11 20 -168.33 2024 11 21 -243.29 2024 11 22 -258.96 2024 11 23 -229.99 2024 11 24 -222.98 2024 11 25 -212.57 2024 11 26 -174.73 2024 11 27 -153.02 2024 11 28 -130.16 2024 11 29 -105.10 2024 11 30 -81.63 2024 12 01 -43.78 2024 12 02 -14.50 2024 12 03 -35.60 2024 12 04 -34.12 2024 12 05 -14.08 2024 12 06 28.23 2024 12 07 49.16 2024 12 08 -27.22 2024 12 09 -137.55 2024 12 10 -149.44 2024 12 11 -49.79 2024 12 12 35.08 2024 12 13 64.11 2024 12 14 70.96 2024 12 15 -21.55 2024 12 16 -72.62 2024 12 17 -59.81 2024 12 18 -48.59 2024 12 19 -98.46 2024 12 20 -88.76 2024 12 21 -9.80 2024 12 22 99.09 2024 12 23 112.77 2024 12 24 186.45 2024 12 25 280.91 2024 12 26 310.29 2024 12 27 225.40 2024 12 28 135.47 2024 12 29 75.67 2024 12 30 11.94