bluewave

Just because coastal areas haven’t seen 100° heat since 2013, doesn’t take away from the record to historic heat experienced in our forum away from the sea breeze.

Then by that narrower definition our region hasn’t ever had an historic heatwave since MTP only made it to 98° back in 2011. Time Series Summary for MONTAUK AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 98 1 - 2006 98 0 - 2001 98 1 2 2010 96 1 - 1999 96 0 3 2002 95 5 4 2019 94 2 - 2005 94 0 5 2013 93 2

It translated to the surface in June 2021 with all-time monthly high temperature records around NYC. EWR ranked #1 and LGA #2. Caribou tied their all-time June high in 2024 with the record Southeast Ridge year. Boston also tied their all-time June high in 2021 and ranked 3rd warmest last year. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2021 103 0 2 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 3 1988 101 0 - 1966 101 0 4 2024 100 0 - 1959 100 0 - 1953 100 0 - 1934 100 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2017 101 0 - 1952 101 0 2 2021 100 0 - 2008 100 0 3 1988 99 0 - 1956 99 0 - 1943 99 0 6 2012 98 0 - 1959 98 0 7 2024 97 0 - 2011 97 0 - 2003 97 0 - 1999 97 0 - 1994 97 0 - 1964 97 0 - 1961 97 0 - 1953 97 0 - 1945 97 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 96 0 - 2020 96 0 - 1944 96 0 2 2023 93 0 - 1995 93 0 - 1988 93 0 - 1983 93 0 3 2021 92 0 - 2003 92 0 - 1979 92 0 - 1963 92 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2021 100 0 - 1952 100 0 - 1925 100 0 2 1933 99 0 3 2024 98 0 - 1988 98 0 - 1984 98 0 - 1953 98 0 - 1919 98 0 - 1874 98 0

That’s the thing though. We have been seeing near to record Southeast Ridges over the last decade with both -PNA and +PNA patterns. So the wavelengths have been shifting to allow for this new circulation pattern. The Northeast set all time 500mb height record around 599 DM last June with a very strong +PNA. Same for the the all-time June heat in 2021 with a June 500mb height near the record. This time around we look to challenge the 500mb record only a year later with a -PNA and more record heat for June possible. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

No. They maintain the site just fine. But it’s located right on the widest part of the Delaware River. So it runs cooler than the rest of Philly and Eastern PA. Data for January 1, 2020 through June 17, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP WBAN 103 SHIPPENSBURG COOP 102 MURRYSVILLE 2 SW COOP 102 ACMETONIA LOCK 3 COOP 102 WOLFSBURG COOP 101 CASHTOWN 1S COOP 101 PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 101 Reading Area ThreadEx 101 Philadelphia Center City Area ThreadEx 101 READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 101 OCTORARO LAKE COOP 100 SAFE HARBOR DAM COOP 100 BIGLERVILLE COOP 100 CHAMBERSBURG 1 ESE COOP 100 YORK AIRPORT WBAN 100 NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NORRISTOWN COOP 100 HANOVER 4 SW COOP 100 LANCASTER AIRPORT WBAN 100 MIDDLETOWN HARRISBURG INT'L AP WBAN 100 Williamsport Area ThreadEx 100 Middletown-Harrisburg Area ThreadEx 100 CARLISLE WATER PLANT COOP 100 WILLIAMSPORT REGIONAL AP WBAN 100 PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 99

We just set the all-time 500mb height record last June at 599 DM. So getting a ridge nearly this strong only a year later is pretty extreme. Several spots around the region made it to 100°. This time around the models are forecasting 850mb temperatures which will be several degrees higher around 22C to 23C. So there is a good chance that the usual warm spots from Central NJ to interior Queens will see 100° or higher heat next week with how unusually well the ensembles agree. Newark recently set their June all-time high of 103° back in 2021 which could be challenged. LGA recorded their 2nd highest June high temperature at 100°. Their all-time June high is 101° set in 2017.

Philly made it to 100° last July at one of the airports and downtown. Monthly Data for July 2024 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 101 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 100

The models have 850 mb temps near 22-23C and 500 mb heights around 597+ DM. So that should easily translate into 100°+ at the usual warm spots. But still uncertain if JFK will break their no 100° streak since 2013.

Central Park was probably 100° to 101° on the Great Lawn. But the ASOS under the trees only made it to 98°. JFK had a strong sea breeze so was much cooler.

The NYC micronet had multiple 100° and warmer readings back in June 2021. But there was a strong sea breeze so the shoreline was much cooler. Models still outside the reliable range for details of where the sea breeze front and compressional warming just to the NW of the front will set up next week. Date:6-30-2021 Station Comparison Summary Date: Previous DayNext Day Previous DayNext Day * Indicates incomplete record. If more than 10% of data are missing, no value will be displayed. Air Temperature (°F) Heat / Chill (°F) Humidity (%) Precipitation (in) Wind Speed (mph) Solar Station Max Min Avg Max Min Max Min Liquid Peak Gust Peak 5m Avg Integrated 13th St./16th / Alphabet City 101 75 90 107 75 91 35 0.40 26 9:10pm 11 9:10pm 25.9 160 Ave. / Howard Beach 91 76 83 102 76 89 51 0.08 28th St. / Chelsea 99 75 89 103 75 94 35 0.98 30 8:50pm 13 9:05pm 20.4 Astoria 100 73 89 107 73 95 36 0.58 26 9:00pm 13 9:05pm 23.8 Bensonhurst / Mapleton 97 78 88 107 78 84 39 0.00 26.3 Bronx Mesonet 98 75 88 103 75 90 37 0.38 35 8:55pm 15 9:00pm 27.5 Brooklyn Mesonet 95 75 86 103 75 87 41 0.00 31 10:05pm 18 9:30pm 26.9 Brownsville 97 76 88 106 76 89 40 0.19 Corona 103 75 90 109 75 92 34 0.35 E 40th St. / Murray Hill 99 74 89 104 74 93 37 0.66 Fresh Kills 99 73 88 105 73 94 36 0.06 27 9:40pm Glendale / Maspeth 99 74 89 107 74 93 37 0.33 Gold Street / Navy Yard 100 75 88 105 75 90 35 0.30 32 9:00pm 16 9:00pm 26.2 Lefferts / South Ozone Park 95 74 85 105 74 93 49 0.10 Manhattan Mesonet 97 73 87 102 73 94 39 0.98 35 8:45pm 19 8:50pm 21.6 Newtown / Long Island City 99 74 89 104 74 90 36 0.25 25 9:10pm 11 5:55pm 24.3 Queens Mesonet 94 73 86 103 73 92 45 0.27 38 9:05pm 20 9:10pm 24.0 Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 100 74 90 105 74 95 34 0.63 19.5 Staten Island Mesonet 97 72 86 104 72 94 40 0.12 36 9:40pm 17 9:40pm 24.2 TLC Center 97 73 87 101 73 94 38 0.64 26 8:50pm 11 9:55pm 23.6 Tremont / Van Nest 103 75 90 110 75 92 32 0.45 24 8:50pm 12 5:05pm

Yeah, we got a relaxation of the warm spring pattern for a time heading into late May here. Some spots had record highs here earlier this month for a day. But anytime we see all-time record heat like International Falls got back in May, it gives us a preview of what is possible as we approach the summer solstice now. Overall for the CONUS this averaged out as the 2nd warmest spring. So any comfortable temperatures that we have been getting recently is a real gift against such a warm background state. International Falls set the all-time warmest minimum minimum by 4° in May Time Series Summary for International Falls Area, MN (ThreadEx) - Month of May Highest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 70 0 2 1992 66 0 - 1988 66 0 3 1991 64 0 - 1919 64 0 4 2018 63 0 - 2014 63 0 - 1986 63 0 5 2021 62 0 - 2007 62 0 - 1980 62 0 - 1955 62 0 - 1918 62 3

https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2022/01/2021-was-northeasts-third-warmest-year-1895#:~:text=On June 30%2C Newark (103,Burlington%2C Vermont (2). On June 30, Newark (103 degrees) and Boston (100 degrees) logged their all-time hottest June temperatures. Several cities set or tied records for the greatest number of June days with a high temperature of at least 95 degrees, including Newark (8), Boston (5), Concord, New Hampshire (3) and Burlington, Vermont (2). Concord saw its greatest number of June days (9) with a high of at least 90 degrees. Seven sites recorded their warmest-ever minimum June temperatures. June 27: Caribou, 69 degrees; Rochester 75 and Syracuse 78. June 28: Dulles Airport, Chantilly, Virginia, 74. June 29: Concord 74, Harrisburg 79 and Portland 75.

Only 8 days due to the excessive tree growth over the sensors.

The La Nina background pattern will be in full effect next week. One of the strongest Southeast Ridges on record for late June in the forecast. Could even rival the ridge and heat experienced in late June 2021. I would take a repeat of January 2022 in a second if we can get the Pacific Jet to back off a bit in coming seasons. But the current WPAC warm pool is still running near record levels.

You can see how the ASOS right on the bay at LGA held the 95° day count down there in 2010 with all the westerly flow compared to Mineola which was more inland away from the water. Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 95° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 21 NY MINEOLA COOP 20 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 18 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 18 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 17 NJ HARRISON COOP 16 NJ CRANFORD COOP 14 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 12 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 12 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 11 NY BRONX COOP 11 CT DANBURY COOP 10 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 10

2010 had the most 95° days at Mineola right before the station shut down.

1955 finished in 3rd place for 95° days there but was surpassed last summer.

The circulation patterns have changed since the 1950s. So areas east of the Hudson have more onshore flow influence and rainfall. So the most impressive records for heat in recent years have been found in NJ. We can’t use NYC to compare to those days since they changed how the measure temperatures in 1995 under the trees instead of out in the open in the 1940s and 1950s.

While those 1950s heatwaves were intense while they were occurring, they didn’t t have the lasting power of extended stretches of 95°+ heat that has become common during the 2010s and 2020s. This is the top 11 for 95° days at Newark. 1955 only had 17 days reaching 95° in 1955. Newark has exceed that number twice since 2021. Last summer Central NJ had 21 days which surpassed 2002 and 1955. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1993 25 0 2 2010 21 0 3 2022 20 0 - 1988 20 0 - 1944 20 0 4 2021 18 0 5 2012 17 0 - 2011 17 0 - 2002 17 0 - 1955 17 0 6 1949 16 0 7 2005 14 0 - 1953 14 0 8 2016 13 0 - 1999 13 0 - 1991 13 0 - 1987 13 0 9 1994 12 0 - 1983 12 0 - 1966 12 0 10 2018 11 0 - 1973 11 0 11 2024 10 0 Time Series Summary for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 21 2 2 2002 17 0 3 1955 16 8 4 1953 14 0 5 2021 13 0 - 2018 13 1 - 2016 13 2 - 2010 13 4 - 1988 13 0 - 1949 13 0

That’s only for places near the immediate South Shore and Eastern Long Island. Most of the area away from the beaches and sea breeze influence have experienced all-time numbers of 90° days this decade especially closer to Central NJ. So the heat is much more widespread than it was back in the 1950s. Nearly every year this decade someone in NJ is getting to 40 days reaching 90°. Those instances were few and far between in the older era.

It’s been a very rough stretch for the areas around the Gulf extending up into places like Asheville last year.

I come at it from a different point of view. ACE is only relevant if storms are making landfall. We can remember 2010 with the very high ACE and the dominant OTS storm tracks. 1992 was a very low ACE season but we had Andrew. But the most significant seasons feature high ACE and landfalls. So sometimes we get caught up in seasonal forecasts of overall ACE. But my focus is landfalling storms. That being said, we have been in a record landfalling hurricane pattern in the Gulf since 2017. The Gulf SSTs are currently the 2nd warmest on record for this time of year. So I will consider this a big season if the Gulf sees another major hurricane landfall by the end of the season no matter what the ACE finishes at.

This could be our first decade since the 1950s with 3 years reaching 100 in June and we are only 6 years in.

Very strong La Niña spring pattern as this was the 2nd warmest spring since 1895 behind the 2011-2012 La Niña for the CONUS. Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature March-May March-May 2012 56.17°F 131 March-May 2025 54.09°F 130 March-May 1910 54.07°F 129 March-May 2004 53.98°F 128 March-May 2000 53.90°F 127 March-May 1934 53.73°F 126 March-May 2016 53.66°F 125 March-May 2024 53.63°F 124 March-May 2007 53.50°F 123 March-May 2017 53.49°F 122

This may be one of the first times that we have seen a 100°+ signal from a 50 member ensemble mean over 200 hrs out.