bluewave

Their mid March-April seems to be a version of what the Midwest experienced in March 2012.

The wild card is how long the -NAO persists. The -NAO has suppressed the record heat to our south during recent springs. All-time April record heat has occurred around the GOM this month.

Yeah, this has been a very impressive -NAO/-EPO pattern for April. Maybe we can sneak in a stray 70 over the next 10 days. But we won’t see any 80 degree heat until this pattern relaxes.

There were also areas north of NYC that had HWW conditions. CWOP ...Dutchess County... Bannerman Island 66 1045 AM 4/13 WXFLOW Beacon 60 1020 AM 4/13 NYSM 1039 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S MAMARONECK 40.92N 73.73W 04/13/2020 M60 MPH ANZ335 NY WXFLOW LARCHMONT HARBOR WXFLOW STATION...ELEVATION 40 FEET. CWOP ...Westchester County... Tappan Zee Light 14 68 1051 AM 4/13 WXFLOW Bridgeport Airport 61 1153 AM 4/13 ASOS

You have to remember that the the open spaces like airports and shorelines are better representations of the actual peak wind gusts than your local neighborhood Davis sensor. Notice how many reports of downed trees there were across the entire area that weren’t near airports or the shoreline. This is telling you that the peak winds in local neighborhoods were realized near the treetop level. So the trees we’re blocking many home sensors from measuring the actual neighborhood peak gusts.

The most reports of 60mph+ gusts in the OKX zones were over Suffolk. This is where the models had indicated than the strongest LLJ in our local area would occur. The 82 mph gust along the Jersey Shore was with the well defined gravity wave. ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... ORIENT 68 404 PM 4/13 TRAINED SPOTTER ORIENT 66 231 PM 4/13 CWOP STONY BROOK 63 319 PM 4/13 CWOP ISLIP AIRPORT 61 147 PM 4/13 ASOS ISLIP AIRPORT 61 147 PM 4/13 ASOS 1 S BROOKHAVEN 60 146 PM 4/13 MESONET 1 E BELLVIEW BEACH 60 149 PM 4/13 WXFLOW EATONS NECK 60 232 PM 4/13 WXFLOW STONY BROOK 58 243 PM 4/13 CWOP ORIENT 57 245 PM 4/13 CWOP GREAT SOUTH BAY 57 133 PM 4/13 WXFLOW WEST GILGO BEACH 56 131 PM 4/13 CWOP SINAI HARBOR 56 1218 PM 4/13 WXFLOW MECOX BAY 55 205 PM 4/13 WXFLOW BLUE POINT 55 346 PM 4/13 WXFLOW FISHERS ISLAND AIRPO 55 1255 PM 4/13 WXFLOW FARMINGDALE AIRPORT 55 200 PM 4/13 ASOS FIRE ISLAND CG 54 143 PM 4/13 WXFLOW SHIRLEY AIRPORT 54 155 PM 4/13 ASOS NAPEAGUE 53 309 PM 4/13 WXFLOW WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT 52 206 PM 4/13 ASOS WEST ISLIP 49 159 PM 4/13 CWOP EASTPORT 48 228 PM 4/13 CWOP WEST ISLIP 47 138 PM 4/13 TRAINED SPOTTER SOUTHOLD 47 305 PM 4/13 CWOP

So far the main impact on temperatures have been muted highs. This is the first April 1-13 at Newark not to reach 70 since 2009. Time Series Summary for Newark Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Apr 1 to Apr 13 Missing Count 2020-04-13 69 1 2019-04-13 80 0 2018-04-13 84 0 2017-04-13 84 0 2016-04-13 80 0 2015-04-13 71 0 2014-04-13 83 0 2013-04-13 85 0 2012-04-13 71 0 2011-04-13 87 0 2010-04-13 92 0 2009-04-13 68 0

These big spring -NAO drops have become common since 2012. +NAO winter followed by strong spring blocking when the sun returns to the Arctic.

You know it must be spring when the models correct stronger with the -EPO and -NAO. New run Old run

Models did a nice job with the 50 mph sustained winds at the coast.

Pretty good forecast. Peak gust on LI of 66 and 68 in Westchester so far. That 82 mph gust was with the gravity wave from Delaware into Ocean County NJ.

Looks like 82 mph is the maximum gust so far.

Numerous reports of downed trees with the wind gusts over 60 mph.

61 mph gust at Islip and 66 at Orient.

Gusting to 76 mph now just south of Long Island.

Portion of a roof blown off in Cape May.

Gusting to 74 mph in Ocean County.

Gusting to 68 mph in Westchester.

70+ gusts moving into Southern NJ now.

Wind gust to 79 mph in Delaware.

JFK is sustained at 36 and gusting to 51 mph.

Winds beginning to pick up around the area now. Sustained at 31 and gusting to 44 mph at JFK. Strongest winds expected this afternoon.

The record GOM SST’s are also boosting the energy available to this system.

The Euro and the GFS MOS both have sustained winds near the coast around 50 mph. So the gradient alone would produce gusts from 60-70 mph. The Euro has a low topped convection which could mix down 70+.

When the Euro indicates sustained winds at the coast near 50 mph, it’s not a stretch to see peak gusts of 70 mph or greater. The LLJ maxes out near +6 SD. Synoptic wind gusts would be 60-70 mph and any convective enhancement 70+.