bluewave

That’s a very good question. There has been an unmistakable shift in the July ridge positions from 2010-2013 to 2018 to 2020. Notice the stronger rigging now over SE Canada and New England. This allows more onshore flow and higher dew points with the heat vs 2010 to 2013.

We don’t even need 100° days anymore to have one of our warmest summers like the last few years. In the past, our warmest summers would often feature maximum temperatures of 100° or higher. But the location of the ridge allowing more onshore flow here has kept the number of 100° days down. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Maximum Temperature 1 2010 80.7 101 2 2011 79.8 103 3 2013 79.5 100 4 2020 79.3 97 5 2019 78.8 99 6 1999 78.7 102 - 1993 78.7 101 7 2016 78.6 98 - 1983 78.6 100 - 1949 78.6 98 8 2015 78.4 95 - 2012 78.4 99 9 1994 78.1 93 10 2002 77.8 99

We don’t even need 100° days anymore to have one of our warmest summers like the last few years. In the past, our warmest summers would often feature maximum temperatures of 100° or higher. But the location of the ridge allowing more onshore flow here has kept the number of 100° days down. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Maximum Temperature 1 2010 80.7 101 2 2011 79.8 103 3 2013 79.5 100 4 2020 79.3 97 5 2019 78.8 99 6 1999 78.7 102 - 1993 78.7 101 7 2016 78.6 98 - 1983 78.6 100 - 1949 78.6 98 8 2015 78.4 95 - 2012 78.4 99 9 1994 78.1 93 10 2002 77.8 99

We don’t even need 100° days anymore to have one of our warmest summers like the last few years. In the past, our warmest summers would often feature maximum temperatures of 100° or higher. But the location of the ridge allowing more onshore flow here has kept the number of 100° days down. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Maximum Temperature 1 2010 80.7 101 2 2011 79.8 103 3 2013 79.5 100 4 2020 79.3 97 5 2019 78.8 99 6 1999 78.7 102 - 1993 78.7 101 7 2016 78.6 98 - 1983 78.6 100 - 1949 78.6 98 8 2015 78.4 95 - 2012 78.4 99 9 1994 78.1 93 10 2002 77.8 99

I will take the higher dew points and wet year round over the severe droughts that Mediterranean climates have been experiencing recently.

Humid subtropical has made it to our area.

Another day with 75° dew points around the area. So it’s a continuation of the record breaking high dew point regime.These dew points used to be typical for the area around the Delmarva.

The December rule seems to work really well for La Niña or Niña-like years. The last two winters were very Niña-like with the ridge north of Hawaii and Maritime Continent MJO phases dominating. Both Decembers NYC finished under 3 inches of snow. The snowier La Niña winters of 16-17 and 17-18 finished with December reaching above 3.0”. Neutral or El Niño type years low December snowfall didn’t tell us much about the rest of the seasonal snowfall. The December 2015 super El Niño T and +13 temperature departure was a great example of this. NYC had its greatest snowstorm on record in January. But 7.0” or more in December most years since 2000 was a good indication of a 40”+ season. La Niña or La Niña-like years bolded Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3

Same here in SW Suffolk. There is leaf burn on the south side of all the trees here near the Great South Bay. Florida experienced a similar browning of the foliage after Irma. The good news is that most of the trees didn’t experience any permanent damage. https://www.floridatoday.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2017/09/20/hurricane-irma-brown-trees/684305001/ https://www.floridatoday.com/story/life/home-garden/spaces/2017/11/27/hurricane-irma-trees/897378001/

All our stations have had a top 6 warmest June 1st to August 8th. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 8 Missing Count 1 1994-08-08 79.5 0 2 2010-08-08 79.4 0 3 1993-08-08 79.3 0 4 2011-08-08 78.9 0 5 1999-08-08 77.9 0 6 2020-08-08 77.8 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 8 Missing Count 1 2010-08-08 78.3 0 2 1999-08-08 77.6 0 3 1966-08-08 77.5 0 4 1949-08-08 77.2 0 5 1983-08-08 77.1 0 6 2020-08-08 77.0 0 - 1994-08-08 77.0 0 - 1908-08-08 77.0 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 8 Missing Count 1 2010-08-08 79.6 0 2 2020-08-08 79.5 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 8 Missing Count 1 2010-08-08 77.7 0 2 2011-08-08 76.3 0 3 1983-08-08 75.8 0 4 2020-08-08 75.7 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 8 Missing Count 1 2010-08-08 75.2 0 2 2020-08-08 75.1 4 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 8 Missing Count 1 1999-08-08 75.4 0 2 2010-08-08 75.1 0 3 2020-08-08 74.5 0

Patterns are understandable and predictable to the extent that our technology is up to the task. Numerical weather prediction was one of the greatest scientific achievements of the 20th century. Maybe more specialized long range regional weather prediction will be one of the biggest scientific breakthroughs of this century.

They went back six decades in the paper. https://phys.org/news/2020-07-north-atlantic-climate-major-scientific.html Published in Nature, the study analyzed six decades of climate model data and suggests decadal variations in North Atlantic atmospheric pressure patterns (known as the North Atlantic Oscillation) are highly predictable, enabling advanced warning of whether winters in the coming decade are likely to be stormy, warm and wet or calm, cold and dry. However, the study revealed that this predictable signal is much smaller than it should be in current climate models. Hence 100 times more ensemble members are required to extract it, and additional steps are needed to balance the effects of winds and greenhouse gasses. The team showed that, by taking these deficiencies into account, skillful predictions of extreme European winter decades are possible. Lead author Dr. Doug Smith, who heads decadal climate prediction research and development at the Met Office Hadley Center, said: "The message from this study is double-edged: climate is much more predictable than we previously thought, but there is a clear need to improve how models simulate regional changes." Advance warning of severe winter weather is imperative to those who make risk-based decisions over longer timescales.For example, better forecasts can help the Environment Agency plan water management and flood defenses, insurance companies plan for the changing risks, the energy sector to mitigate against potential blackouts and surges, and airports plan for potential disruption. Improving model simulations will enhance the countries' response, resilience and security against the effects of extreme weather and climate change—influencing future policy decisions to protect people's lives, property and infrastructure.

It would be great for long range forecasting if this works out.

Sometimes in the past, we could break warm temperature streaks following tropical systems. But our warm minimum run looks to continue right into the next heatwave. Highs getting back above 90° with dew points in the 70s should return by Sunday or Monday. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 36 2020-08-07 2 34 2006-08-10 3 32 1980-08-15 4 29 2018-08-19 5 28 2010-07-30 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 68 for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 36 2020-08-07 2 31 2013-07-24 3 22 2010-07-25 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 65 for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 42 1988-08-16 2 36 2020-08-07 3 32 2013-07-24 - 32 1980-08-15 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 67 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 46 2005-08-24 2 45 1988-08-18 3 42 2020-08-07 4 41 2011-08-11 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 64 for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 36 2020-08-07 2 31 2013-07-24 3 25 2011-08-10 4 24 1961-09-14 5 23 2019-08-07

Thanks for the kind words. I really enjoy reading your posts which add to the solid foundation of this forum. We have built a very deep bench here.

I also hope that Uncle makes a speedy recovery. Reading Uncle’s posts along with Don’s back in the old Eastern days got me interested in joining. Citizen science made a giant leap with the birth of online weather forums such as this.

Yeah, we have been lucky since 02-03.Two consecutive winters with below normal snowfall have been few and far between. It happened from 06-07 to 07-08. And then from 18-19 to19-20. We’ll find out next winter if we rebound like we did after 07-08. Or we enter an extended slowdown like from 96-97 to 01-02.

2020 may go down as one of the strongest winter-summer +EPO couplets. It will be interesting to see if this means we are switching back to a more +EPO regime like we had before 2013. The +EPO combined with the +NAO to produce a mild and snowless winter. This summer it was the heat ridge axis centered to our north getting undercut by tropical moisture.

Can’t wait for all those GEFS day 35 snowstorm posts on social media next winter.

Isaias was the first tropical cyclone to peak at category 1 to cause so much wind damage and power outages in our area. All our other tropical systems since at least the 1970s that caused so much damage peaked as a major hurricane and weakened by the time they reached our area. This event was the first to reach us near peak intensity. Tropical cyclones causing extensive wind damage and power outages peak intensity 1976...Belle....category 3...957mb...120 mph 1985...Gloria..................4...919 mb...145 mph 2011...Irene....................3...942mb...120 mph 2012...Sandy...................3...940mb...115 mph 2020...Isaias...................1...987mb....85 mph

It has rained on every Friday going back to July 3rd.

Looks like the 64°/70° minimum streak continues for HPN and LGA. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 64 for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 34 2020-08-05 2 31 2013-07-24 3 25 2011-08-10 4 24 1961-09-14 5 23 2019-08-07 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 34 2020-08-05 - 34 2006-08-10 2 32 1980-08-15 3 29 2018-08-19 4 28 2010-07-30 5 24 1999-08-08 - 24 1995-08-05

Plenty of tropical moisture under that big Hudson Bay block. So the end result was a very sharp rainfall gradient.

Sharp contrast between the record rainfall around Newark and the New England drought. Wettest 7-1 to 8-5 at Newark vs the 2nd driest at BDL. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 2020-08-05 12.23 0 2 1988-08-05 9.98 0 3 1984-08-05 9.46 0 4 1967-08-05 9.44 0 5 1948-08-05 9.23 0 Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 2001-08-05 1.27 0 2 2020-08-05 1.28 0 3 1949-08-05 1.42 0 4 1962-08-05 1.64 0 5 1961-08-05 1.69 0

The record SSTs combined with the trough interaction allowed for much of the LLJ to mix down east of the center. Models did a very good job indicating those steep low level lapse rates and damaging wind gust potential.