bluewave

One of the biggest changes we have seen in PA since the 1950s and 1960s has been the winter storm track shift. The primary winter storm track into the early 2000s was just east of the Appalachians. We can see how the storm track shift over the last 20 years caused a steep decline in snowfall at State College. The same storm track shift going west of the Appalachians has lead to in increase in Lake effect snows at Erie coupled with the warmer lake temperatures reducing the ice cover over the years.

February will finish very close to average temperatures with the late month warm up. The 7 station average is currently -0.1. And the winter finishes at -0.8°. But would be closer to 0.0° using the 1981-2010 climate normals which were about 1° cooler. Feb 2025 EWR….+0.4 NYC…..-1.6 LGA…..-0.9 JFK….+2.3 HPN….-0.6 BDR…-0.5 ISP.…+0.8 AVG…-0.1 Jan 2025 EWR…-1.4° NYC…-2.5° LGA….-2.0° JFK…..-0.2° HPN….-1.6° BDR….-1.3° ISP…...-1.5° AVG…..-1.5° Dec 2024 EWR….-0.1° NYC….-0.9° LGA…..-1.0° JFK…..+0.1° HPN….-1.6° BDR…..-1.3° ISP…….-0.6° AVG….-0.8° DJF AVG…..-0.8°

We haven’t had an average midrange 19” to 30” or above normal snowfall season since the 1990s without at least one big benchmark or KU snowstorm. So pretty much a 100% chance of below to much below snowfall with only the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. But while the near BM tracks are necessary, they aren’t always sufficient to reach average to above as western sections found out in 2022. From the 1960s to early 1990s we could get to 19” or above some seasons without benchmark tracks or KUs. Since it was cold enough back then with enough of the other type of tracks we got which included clippers which we hardly ever see these days. Also SWFEs that had better cold air and high pressure for heavier snows. I think our last big overperforming SWFE type low was the 6”+ event in November 2018.

Another season dominated by the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. Since 18-19 we only had a brief relaxation of this pattern during 20-21 and Jan 22. The much faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet seems to be interfering with a benchmark snowstorm track pattern. This has lead to the very low snowfall totals over this period. The Western Trough in one set of outcomes overamplifies with too much wave spacing pumping the Southeast Ridge leading to the Great Lakes Cutter track. The next group has slightly less wave spacing leading to a track which hugs the I-78, I-80, or I-95 corridor leading to snow to rain outcomes favoring closer to I-84 and north for best snows. Then the third grouping has a kicker coming onto the West causing the Southern Stream system to get suppressed to our south with just light snows or no snow at all. Not sure what it could take in coming seasons to change up this pattern. Maybe a shift in the many ongoing marine heatwaves. But very uncertain since this jet and storm track pattern emerged with the rapid expansion of these marine heatwaves around 2019. Seasonal animation below illustrates this snowfall and storm track pattern

Yeah, we can add this new study also.

Yeah, LGA already set the new record for under 4” days this season currently at 1123 and NYC is getting close to their record. Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1940-01-01 to 2025-02-25 1 1123 2025-02-25 2 1051 1963-12-22 3 761 2020-12-15 4 746 1952-02-29 5 744 1981-03-04 6 743 1998-03-21 7 742 2013-02-07 8 715 1974-02-07 9 701 1977-01-13 10 690 1943-01-27 Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2025-02-25 1 1394 1932-12-16 2 1123 2025-02-25 3 1063 1952-01-27 4 1051 1963-12-22 5 794 1956-03-15 6 743 1998-03-21 7 742 1920-02-03 8 687 1981-01-06 9 685 1974-01-08 10 680 1954-01-10

March and April snowfall has been way down during the 2020s. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 T 0.1 2024 T 0.0 T 2023 0.1 0.0 0.1 2022 0.4 0.0 0.4 2021 T 0.0 T 2020 T T T Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.0 0.6 6.5 2019 10.4 0.0 10.4 2018 11.6 5.5 17.1 2017 9.7 0.0 9.7 2016 0.9 T 0.9 2015 18.6 0.0 18.6 2014 0.1 T 0.1 2013 7.3 0.0 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 T 1.0 2010 T 0.0 T Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3.5 0.5 4.0 2009 8.3 T 8.3 2008 T 0.0 T 2007 6.0 T 6.0 2006 1.3 0.1 1.4 2005 6.9 0.0 6.9 2004 4.8 0.0 4.8 2003 3.5 4.0 7.5 2002 T T T 2001 3.8 0.0 3.8 2000 0.4 1.2 1.6 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 5.7 0.1 5.8 1999 4.5 0.0 4.5 1998 5.0 0.0 5.0 1997 1.7 T 1.7 1996 13.2 0.7 13.9 1995 T T T 1994 8.1 0.0 8.1 1993 11.9 0.0 11.9 1992 9.4 T 9.4 1991 0.2 0.0 0.2 1990 3.1 0.6 3.7 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3.0 1.0 4.1 1989 2.5 0.0 2.5 1988 T 0.0 T 1987 1.9 0.0 1.9 1986 T T T 1985 0.2 T 0.2 1984 11.9 0.0 11.9 1983 T 0.8 0.8 1982 0.7 9.6 10.3 1981 8.6 0.0 8.6 1980 4.6 T 4.6 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 2.3 0.1 2.4 1979 T T T 1978 6.8 T 6.8 1977 0.6 T 0.6 1976 4.4 T 4.4 1975 0.3 T 0.3 1974 3.2 0.3 3.5 1973 0.2 T 0.2 1972 2.3 T 2.3 1971 1.3 0.4 1.7 1970 4.0 T 4.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.1 0.1 6.2 1969 5.6 0.0 5.6 1968 6.1 0.0 6.1 1967 17.4 T 17.4 1966 T 0.0 T 1965 2.8 1.2 4.0 1964 6.0 T 6.0 1963 2.8 T 2.8 1962 0.2 T 0.2 1961 1.2 T 1.2 1960 18.5 0.0 18.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.2 1.0 7.2 1959 6.7 0.6 7.3 1958 15.9 0.2 16.1 1957 2.6 2.5 5.1 1956 21.1 4.2 25.3 1955 3.6 0.0 3.6 1954 0.1 0.3 0.4 1953 0.9 T 0.9 1952 7.4 0.0 7.4 1951 2.7 0.0 2.7 1950 1.4 1.9 3.3

It will take Islip longer than NYC. Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 5 for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1503 1969-12-28 through 1974-02-07 2 1205 1989-11-24 through 1993-03-12 3 1123 2022-01-30 through 2025-02-25 4 1061 1984-03-29 through 1987-02-22 5 1000 2018-03-22 through 2020-12-15 6 758 1997-02-15 through 1999-03-14 7 744 1979-02-20 through 1981-03-04 8 742 2011-01-28 through 2013-02-07 9 689 1967-03-23 through 1969-02-08 10 655 1999-03-16 through 2000-12-29 Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 5 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2025-02-25 1 1394 1929-02-22 through 1932-12-16 2 1123 2022-01-30 through 2025-02-25 3 1063 1949-03-01 through 1952-01-27 4 1051 1961-02-05 through 1963-12-22 5 794 1954-01-12 through 1956-03-15 6 764 1996-02-17 through 1998-03-21 7 761 2018-11-16 through 2020-12-15 8 744 1979-02-20 through 1981-03-04 9 742 2011-01-28 through 2013-02-07 - 742 1918-01-23 through 1920-02-03

That big -5 AO drop was the main reason this didn’t turn into another +5 February with how strong the Southeast Ridge was.

If the data suggested that it was getting much colder over that period, then my guess is that you would have no problem believing it. Plus when you use terms like “no one can tell” it shows that you didn’t read the study. The issue is that you are viewing scientific information through a political filter which is warping your perception of reality.

It’s the speed of the warming which is unprecedented in the last 24,000 years. https://news.arizona.edu/news/global-temperatures-over-last-24000-years-show-todays-warming-unprecedented A University of Arizona-led effort to reconstruct Earth's climate since the last ice age, about 24,000 years ago, highlights the main drivers of climate change and how far out of bounds human activity has pushed the climate system. The study, published Wednesday in Nature, has three main findings: It verifies that the main drivers of climate change since the last ice age are rising greenhouse gas concentrations and the retreat of the ice sheets. It suggests a general warming trend over the last 10,000 years, settling a decade-long debate the paleoclimatology community about whether this period trended warmer or cooler. The magnitude and rate warming over the last 150 years far surpasses the magnitude and rate of changes over the last 24,000 years. "This reconstruction suggests that current temperatures are unprecedented in 24,000 years, and also suggests that the speed of human-caused global warming is faster than anything we've seen in that same time," said Jessica Tierney, a UArizona geosciencesassociate professor and co-author of the study.

Yeah, we had great storm tracks that winter. So we were able to have a snowy December even though it was the 10th warmest on record. Almost like an earlier version of 16-17 where it didn’t matter how warm it was since the benchmark track was locked in. Climatological Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - December 1990 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1540 1100 - - 686 0 5.58 7.2 - Average 49.7 35.5 42.6 3.5 - - - - 0.3 Normal 44.3 33.8 39.1 - 804 0 4.38 4.9 1990-12-01 53 36 44.5 1.3 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-02 57 42 49.5 6.6 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-03 53 38 45.5 2.9 19 0 1.21 0.0 0 1990-12-04 60 35 47.5 5.2 17 0 0.95 0.0 0 1990-12-05 36 32 34.0 -8.0 31 0 T T 0 1990-12-06 47 31 39.0 -2.7 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-07 47 37 42.0 0.6 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-08 49 38 43.5 2.4 21 0 T 0.0 0 1990-12-09 49 36 42.5 1.6 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-10 54 36 45.0 4.4 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-11 39 30 34.5 -5.8 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-12 51 35 43.0 3.0 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-13 60 41 50.5 10.8 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-14 41 30 35.5 -4.0 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-15 49 33 41.0 1.8 24 0 0.47 0.0 0 1990-12-16 48 40 44.0 5.1 21 0 0.26 0.0 0 1990-12-17 49 37 43.0 4.4 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-18 58 39 48.5 10.1 16 0 0.44 0.0 0 1990-12-19 52 39 45.5 7.4 19 0 T 0.0 0 1990-12-20 45 32 38.5 0.6 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-21 59 45 52.0 14.4 13 0 0.30 0.0 0 1990-12-22 61 58 59.5 22.1 5 0 T 0.0 0 1990-12-23 66 57 61.5 24.4 3 0 0.27 0.0 0 1990-12-24 63 29 46.0 9.1 19 0 0.44 0.0 0 1990-12-25 31 22 26.5 -10.2 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-26 36 25 30.5 -5.9 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-27 28 21 24.5 -11.7 40 0 0.07 0.6 1 1990-12-28 36 24 30.0 -6.0 35 0 1.05 6.6 7 1990-12-29 43 35 39.0 3.2 26 0 T 0.0 1 1990-12-30 60 40 50.0 14.4 15 0 0.02 0.0 0 1990-12-31 60 27 43.5 8.1 21 0 0.10 0.0 0

Hopefully we can break the under 5” streak in the coming years so it doesn’t surpass the record. Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 5 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2025-02-25 1 1394 1932-12-16 2 1123 2025-02-25 3 1063 1952-01-27 4 1051 1963-12-22 5 794 1956-03-15 6 764 1998-03-21 7 761 2020-12-15 8 744 1981-03-04 9 742 2013-02-07 - 742 1920-02-03

Looks like the new version of the AIFS which just became operational yesterday scores a little better than the old version its replacing one and the regular OP.

The big warm up to end the month will allow several stations like EWR, JFK, and ISP to finish close to or even a little above average. EWR…-0.5° NYC….-2.7° LGA…..-1.8° HPN….-1.5° JFK……+1.5° BDR…..-1.4° ISP…….-0.1°

Back in the 1970s Long Beach was much more like Coney Island. With arcades and an amusement park for blocks along the boardwalk. Then they started to change the character of the city during the 1980s. Now there are condos selling for 4.5 million a few blocks from where all the old boardwalk attractions used to be. Several scenes in the Joan Jett video below were filmed at Chauncey’s and you can see the old amusement park.

While this chart only uses hourly readings, this was there first 100°rise in 5 days there. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NE_ASOS&zstation=VTN&v=tmpf&hours=126&month=all&dir=warm&how=exact&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Yeah, we used to go to the old Chauncey’s Bar on Georgia Beach back in the 80s and 90s. The West End was a pretty wild place on Saturday nights in those days. It was like a college party town times 10.

Yeah, Long Beach is really a one of a kind place on Long Island. It’s the only city located on a barrier island. Great boardwalk and beach with a good restaurant scene. It really took them a while to bounce back after Sandy.

Montana is one of the few spots on the planet that got colder instead of warmer with the updated 91-20 climate normals compared to 81-10.

Montana has been consistently been getting the core of the cold in recent years. Even with the warm up last few days there are still at -20° for the month. This is their 4th top 10 coldest February since 2018. Time Series Summary for Great Falls Area, MT (ThreadEx) - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1936 -5.2 0 2 2019 -0.2 0 3 2025 5.9 4 4 1922 9.0 0 5 1989 10.3 0 6 1899 11.0 0 7 2018 11.8 0 8 2021 12.4 0 9 1975 13.1 0 10 1978 14.4 0 Climatological Data for Great Falls Area, MT (ThreadEx) - February 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 366 -82 - - 1414 0 1.33 16.0 - Average 15.3 -3.4 5.9 -20.0 - - - - 5.1 Normal 36.7 15.2 25.9 - 937 0 0.51 8.7 2025-02-01 44 9 26.5 1.1 38 0 T T T 2025-02-02 10 -8 1.0 -24.4 64 0 0.02 0.7 T 2025-02-03 -3 -8 -5.5 -30.9 70 0 0.17 1.5 2 2025-02-04 -7 -9 -8.0 -33.4 73 0 0.20 2.4 2 2025-02-05 18 -11 3.5 -21.9 61 0 0.02 0.2 4 2025-02-06 11 -7 2.0 -23.4 63 0 T T 4 2025-02-07 6 -8 -1.0 -26.4 66 0 0.28 2.1 4 2025-02-08 23 -8 7.5 -17.9 57 0 T T 5 2025-02-09 13 -5 4.0 -21.4 61 0 0.06 1.8 7 2025-02-10 1 -29 -14.0 -39.5 79 0 0.04 0.7 5 2025-02-11 3 -25 -11.0 -36.5 76 0 T T 5 2025-02-12 8 -18 -5.0 -30.6 70 0 T 0.1 5 2025-02-13 19 0 9.5 -16.2 55 0 T T 5 2025-02-14 8 -2 3.0 -22.8 62 0 0.11 1.5 4 2025-02-15 3 -9 -3.0 -28.9 68 0 T T 5 2025-02-16 4 -4 0.0 -26.0 65 0 0.17 1.9 5 2025-02-17 -2 -6 -4.0 -30.1 69 0 0.25 2.9 8 2025-02-18 -6 -22 -14.0 -40.3 79 0 0.01 0.2 10 2025-02-19 -6 -29 -17.5 -43.9 82 0 0.00 0.0 10 2025-02-20 36 -9 13.5 -13.1 51 0 0.00 0.0 9 2025-02-21 39 20 29.5 2.7 35 0 0.00 0.0 8 2025-02-22 42 36 39.0 12.0 26 0 0.00 0.0 6 2025-02-23 49 35 42.0 14.8 23 0 0.00 0.0 4 2025-02-24 53 35 44.0 16.5 21 0 0.00 M M 2025-02-25 M M M M M M M M M 2025-02-26 M M M M M M M M M 2025-02-27 M M M M M M M M M 2025-02-28 M M M M M M M M M

This is why I wasn’t expecting the -AO to last very long when it dropped below -5 a few weeks ago. These rapid rises have become the new normal in recent years. Notice how many 7+ sigma jumps we have had in recent years. This one was a +8.193 rise from the 15th to the 24th for a new 7th highest. Pretty wild following the greatest October rise on record last October. 15Feb2025 -5.2570 0. 24Feb2025 2.9364 https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii #1……+10.790……3-11-21 #2…...+9.401…….1-16-16 #3……+9.256……3-2-56 #4……+9.039……4-21-13 #5……+8.522……1-25-05 #6…...+8.462…..1-15-77 #7…….+8.268….3-16-68 #8…….+7.793….2-25-01 #9…….+7.731….3-23-86 #10……+7.720…2-4-11 #11……+7.641…..3-5-70 #12…..+7.502…..1-19-85 #13……+7.387….3-20-78 #14……+7.240….10-23-24 #15……+7117……1-23-52 #16…..+7.066…1-24-08 #17……+7.043…3-19-15 #18……+7.038…2-10-76

This is one long range forecast that we hope is incorrect. But would match what we have been seeing in recent years with the record SSTs and rapid hurricane intensifications near landfall. So it’s something to be aware of.

One of the more dramatic shifts from winter to spring for parts of the U.S.

Not as concerned about the total ACE for storms that can be OTS while RI has been on the increase for the all important landfalling systems.