bluewave

I think the issue is that you keep putting up so much resistance to discussing the objective measures of ranking and describing the temperatures this winter. You would think on a weather forum that there would be more interest than just the subjective description of the weather and climate. In a pure subjective sense even our warmest winters felt cold since we frequently needed a winter coat. Same goes for some of coolest summers which many people still wore a bathing suit and went swimming. But we go beyond those generalities and are more precise on a weather forum. So it’s fine to point out that the only reason this winter will finish below average was due to the goal posts being shifted every 10 years making the bar for a cold winter lower than it used to be.

I will give them the benefit of the doubt and just chalk it up to how quickly we normalize things like a warming climate and tend not to pay attention to the context that statistics provides. https://www.ucdavis.edu/climate/news/tweets-tell-scientists-how-quickly-we-normalize-unusual-weather study, published Feb. 25 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, indicates that people have short memories when it comes to what they consider “normal” weather. On average, people base their idea of normal weather on what has happened in just the past two to eight years. This disconnect with the historical climate record may obscure the public’s perception of climate change. “There’s a risk that we’ll quickly normalize conditions we don’t want to normalize,” said lead author Frances C. Moore, an assistant professor in the UC Davis Department of Environmental Science and Policy. “We are experiencing conditions that are historically extreme, but they might not feel particularly unusual if we tend to forget what happened more than about five years ago.

Also remember that the other stations don’t have all the dense tree growth covering their sensors. This is why NYC had the coldest departures relative to the other stations using the current 1991-2020 warmest climate normals. Other local sites that have open exposure matching the regulations had even smaller cold departures. So when compared to 1951-1980, 1961-1990, and 1971-2000 would be even warmer. EWR….-0.9° NYC…..-2.0° LGA…...-1.8° JFK……+0.7° HPN…..-1.4° ISP……..-1.0°

When the overall climate was much colder along with the Great Lakes, NYC and other sites near the coast would regularly drop close to 0° with westerly flow Arctic outbreaks crossing the Great Lakes. This was a usual occurrence between 1976 and 1994. This winter experienced some of the strongest westerly flow crossing the Great Lakes since that much colder era. So we can say all of the warming factors combined added around 10° degrees and not just 0.5° degrees on the coldest days this winter. Since the coldest temperature this winter in NYC only fell to 10°.

I think that’s probably since you are younger and haven’t experienced what cold winters were like here. But I can understand it since you are comparing it to all the record warmth we have had in the winters over the last decade. But there was nothing particularly cold about this winter except for the much stronger winds driving those wind chills.

They have become very frequent in recent years. There was just one in NJ back in late December. It’s very tough to sustain any real cold these days. SMQ 2024-12-23 26 1 13.5 -19.8 51 0 0.00 2024-12-24 38 19 28.5 -4.5 36 0 0.07 2024-12-25 38 19 28.5 -4.3 36 0 0.00 2024-12-26 38 11 24.5 -8.1 40 0 0.00 2024-12-27 42 13 27.5 -4.8 37 0 T 2024-12-28 45 32 38.5 6.4 26 0 0.64 2024-12-29 65 41 53.0 21.1 12 0 0.22 2024-12-30 59 37 48.0 16.3 17 0 0.38 2024-12-31 58 27 42.5 11.0 22 0 0.44

Close to a record temperature rise for areas that were really cold this month.

People like to make jokes about the Great Lakes. But the record warmth there has been greatly moderating our Arctic outbreaks in recent years. As was the case this winter combined with the record Canadian and Hudson Bay warmth. February 2016 and 2023 were the two Arctic outbreaks which reached 0° or colder east of the Hudson and required Northerly flow down from Canada going east of the Great Lakes instead of crossing the warmer waters. In the old days we could get to near 0° with westerly flow across the more frozen Great Lakes when Canada was much colder.

The only 0° or lower readings at Montauk since 1998 were in January 2016 and February 2023. Time Series Summary for MONTAUK AIRPORT, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015-2016 -2 10 2 2022-2023 0 0 3 2014-2015 2 0 4 2018-2019 5 2 - 2013-2014 5 1 - 2003-2004 5 6

Yeah, our most impressive Arctic outbreak east the Hudson this decade was also during one of our warmest winters back in February 2023. Monthly Data for February 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY CARMEL 4N COOP -10 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN -9 CT DANBURY COOP -7 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -6 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -5 CT GUILFORD COOP -5 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP -5 NY PORT JERVIS COOP -4 NY SHRUB OAK COOP -4 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -4 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN -4 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -3 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN -3 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN -3 NY WEST POINT COOP -2 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP -2 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -1 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 0 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 0 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 0 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 1 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 2 NY SYOSSET COOP 2 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3 NJ HARRISON COOP 3 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 3 NY CENTERPORT COOP 3 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 3 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 4 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 4

January 1976 was pretty cold ranking 24 coldest in NYC. Our last top 11 coldest January was back in 2004. I can still remember all the ice on Reynolds Channel near the Long Beach bridge. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1918 21.7 0 2 1977 22.0 0 3 1888 23.2 0 4 1920 23.4 0 5 1875 23.6 1 6 1912 23.7 0 7 1893 23.8 0 8 1883 24.4 0 9 1884 24.5 0 10 1881 24.6 0 11 2004 24.7 0 12 1940 25.0 0 13 1970 25.1 0 14 1945 25.2 0 15 1904 25.3 0 16 1948 25.4 0 17 1994 25.5 0 18 1879 25.9 2 19 1886 26.0 0 20 1982 26.1 0 21 1981 26.2 0 22 1968 26.7 0 23 1971 26.9 0 24 1976 27.3 0 25 1873 27.4 0 26 2003 27.5 0 27 1961 27.7 0 - 1877 27.7 0 28 2009 27.9 0 29 1978 28.0 0 30 1871 28.1 2

We had a big run of 0° and below readings from 1976 to 1985 around NYC and Long Island. Monthly Data for January 1976 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -4 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -2 NEW YORK BOTANICAL GARDEN COOP -2 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP -2 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP -2 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP -1 MINEOLA COOP -1 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN -1 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -1 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 0 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 0 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 0 SETAUKET STRONG COOP 0 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 1 NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 1 SCARSDALE COOP 1 MONTAUK COOP 2 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 2 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 3 Monthly Data for January 1977 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -5 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP -3 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -2 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN -2 SCARSDALE COOP -2 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP -2 MONTAUK COOP -2 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP -1 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN -1 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -1 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 0 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 0 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 1 MINEOLA COOP 1 NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 1 SETAUKET STRONG COOP 2 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 3 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 5 Monthly Data for February 1979 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SCARSDALE COOP -14 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -10 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -6 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN -6 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP -5 VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP -3 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP -3 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP -1 SETAUKET STRONG COOP -1 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -1 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP -1 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 0 MINEOLA COOP 0 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 0 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 0 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 1 MONTAUK COOP 1 NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 2 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 2 Monthly Data for December 1980 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP -7 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP -7 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP -5 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -5 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP -4 SCARSDALE COOP -3 SETAUKET STRONG COOP -2 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP -1 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP -1 WESTBURY COOP -1 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN -1 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN -1 VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP -1 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 0 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 0 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 3 MINEOLA COOP 3 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 4 Monthly Data for January 1981 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -11 SCARSDALE COOP -8 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -5 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN -4 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP -2 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP -2 WESTBURY COOP -1 SETAUKET STRONG COOP -1 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 0 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 0 VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 0 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 0 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 1 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 1 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 2 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 2 NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 3 MINEOLA COOP 5 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 5 Monthly Data for January 1982 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP -10 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -10 SCARSDALE COOP -8 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -8 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -8 WESTBURY COOP -7 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP -5 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP -4 VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP -4 SETAUKET STRONG COOP -4 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP -2 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN -2 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN -1 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -1 NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 0 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 0 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 1 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 1 MINEOLA COOP 4 Monthly Data for December 1983 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. MINEOLA COOP -1 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 1 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 1 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 2 WESTBURY COOP 2 SCARSDALE COOP 2 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 2 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 2 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 3 NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 3 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 3 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 3 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 4 VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 4 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 5 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 5 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 6 SETAUKET STRONG COOP 6 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 6 Monthly Data for January 1984 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -13 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP -11 SCARSDALE COOP -10 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN -7 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -6 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -6 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP -6 WESTBURY COOP -5 SETAUKET STRONG COOP -4 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP -1 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 0 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 1 MINEOLA COOP 1 VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 5 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 6 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 7 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 7 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 8 Monthly Data for January 1985 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP -5 SCARSDALE COOP -5 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP -5 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP -4 WESTBURY COOP -4 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -4 WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP -3 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -3 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN -3 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN -2 VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP -2 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -2 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN -1 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 0 SETAUKET STRONG COOP 0 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 0

It was actually January 1984 which was colder in some spots than 1985. Monthly Data for January 1984 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -24 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP -21 NEWTON COOP -20 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP -18 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP -18 PEMBERTON COOP -17 LAKEHURST NAS WBAN -16 EWING 3 WNW COOP -16 SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP -16 HIGH POINT PARK COOP -16 Trenton Area ThreadEx -16 CANOE BROOK COOP -15 LONG VALLEY COOP -15 BOONTON 1 SE COOP -15 MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP -14 WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP -13 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP -13 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx -13 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP -12 BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP -12 ESTELL MANOR COOP -12 Belvidere Area ThreadEx -12 LAMBERTVILLE COOP -11 RINGWOOD COOP -11 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP -10 ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP -10 LITTLE FALLS COOP -10

Yeah, the coldest winter of the 2020s so far feels much colder with the very strong winds and how warm the recent winters were. But so far it’s warmer than all the other previous coldest winters of past decades. New Brunswick is currently at -1.4° since December 1st. New Brunswick coldest winters in each decade..decadal winter average..decadal low 2020s….32.2°…..36.1°…..6° 2010s…..29.5°…..34.1°….-2° 2000s….29.0°…..33.4°…-2° 1990s….28.3°…..33.7°….-5° 1980s….29.3°……31.6°….-13° 1970s…..26.4°……31.1°…..-7°

Yeah, strongest average gusts on record for JFK since January 1st made it feel much colder. My guess is that the record downslope component at JFK is why they were locally warmer than the other sites. Since dowslope flow off the moraine is always warmest closer to JFK. Plus the winds staying up at night prevented them from the radiational cooling they usually get relative to the other nearby city sites. Data for December 1, 2024 through February 22, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 38.1 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 35.8 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 35.0 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 34.2 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 34.2 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 34.1 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 33.6 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 33.5 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 33.4 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 33.1 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 33.1 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 33.0 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 33.0

The total winter hours below freezing have been steadily decreasing in NJ. This winter has been about as average as you can get. So we can say that the hourly temperatures closely track the daily highs, lows, and averages. 5 out of the 10 lowest total hours below freezing have occurred in the last decade. 8 out of the 10 highest years occurred prior to 2000. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=159&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&var=tmpf&dir=below&thres=32&month=winter&sdate=1001&edate=0430&year=2025&syear=1920&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

By that metric JFK hasn’t had much cold this winter as the 7 highs at or below 32° weren’t that much more than the last two winters. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending number of High temperatures at or below 32° 2024-2025 7 221 2023-2024 5 0 2022-2023 4 0 2021-2022 14 0 2020-2021 10 0 2019-2020 2 0 2018-2019 10 0 2017-2018 21 0 2016-2017 9 0 2015-2016 9 0 2014-2015 23 0 2013-2014 27 0 2012-2013 10 0 2011-2012 4 0 2010-2011 18 0 2009-2010 17 0 2008-2009 21 0 2007-2008 5 0 2006-2007 18 0 2005-2006 9 0 2004-2005 19 0 2003-2004 25 0 2002-2003 28 0 2001-2002 1 0 2000-2001 19 0 1999-2000 21 0 1998-1999 14 0 1997-1998 3 0 1996-1997 10 0 1995-1996 22 0 1994-1995 9 0 1993-1994 27 0

I suspect our snowfall peaked in 17-18 and this is just par for the course post peak. State College had their peak in 03-04 and then began a decline. But they were still able to have some good years in the mix from time to time. But noting like the 1960s to early 2000s. Almost like an extended version of our 09-10 to 17-18. Hopefully, we can return to at least occasional benchmark storms and not have the extended lack of favorable storm tracks like State College has experienced.

This may be one of the few times a gradient pattern has combined with a suppression pattern to produce that snow hole from PA into our area. In the old days we would usually get one or the other. Now we are getting cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks all within a few days of each other.

Yeah, this was the first time at spots like Newark that the average wind gusts have been over 30 mph since January 1st. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=140&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&syear=1928&sday=0101&eday=0220&varname=avg_wind_gust&w=none&thres=30&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

This was a great example of gradient patterns favoring areas to our north.

Only if you focus on coastal sections like JFK where the sea breezes have been dominating over the last decade. New Jersey has had multiple seasons with over 40 days reaching 90°. Plus they nearly got to 10 days reaching 100° back in 2022 if the dry pattern lasted a little longer.

Because a recent 10 year average would mask the warming even more since the base state is so much higher than it used to be. January was only considered cold here since we moved the goal posts to make it easier to get a colder month. If we left the original climo in place, then it would have been a warmer January in the Northeast.

30 year temperature averages began to be used when we had a stable climate. So you could look at a departure and know whether it was actually warmer or colder. In a rapidly warming climate each 10 year update masks the warming process. This is why rankings make more sense. It takes larger and larger cold departures to get a top 10 or top 20 coldest month and a smaller positive departure for a top 10 or top 20 warmest month. It’s why the Northeast has had over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 and only 1 top 10 coldest. By just looking at the 1991-2020 departures you would miss this key distinction. So we should probably just use the 1951-1980 base period in order for the rankings to match the departures like NASA does.

We really needed the much warmer 1991-2020 climate normals in order to finally get a colder winter across the area. The 7 station average is currently -0.9° since December 1st. In the old days this would have been an average winter to slightly warmer than average. Reminds me of the cooler summers in recent years which would have been considered a little warmer than the older era climate normals. EWR….-0.7° NYC….-1.8° LGA….-1.6° JFK…..+0.8° HPN…..-1.2° BDR…..-1.2° ISP……-0.8° AVG….-0.9°