bluewave

Steady decrease in lows under 10° across the Northeast with many locations recording some of there lowest winter numbers during the 2020s.

The minimums have set a new record across the area at spots like SMQ for the first half of summer. The average maximum was 7th warmest. But since last year featured the warmest average high, 7th place this year feels cooler by comparison. So it’s all relative to what we are getting acclimated to. Warmest Minimum Temperatures through 7-13Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-07-13 62.6 0 2 2013-07-13 62.2 0 3 2024-07-13 61.1 0 4 2021-07-13 60.8 0 - 2005-07-13 60.8 0 5 2006-07-13 60.7 0 6 2010-07-13 60.1 0 7 2020-07-13 59.9 0 - 2014-07-13 59.9 0 8 2015-07-13 59.8 17 9 2008-07-13 59.7 0 10 2011-07-13 59.5 0 - 1999-07-13 59.5 8 Warmest Average Maximum Temperature Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-13 87.7 0 2 2010-07-13 86.3 0 3 2020-07-13 85.5 0 4 1999-07-13 85.3 8 5 2008-07-13 85.0 0 6 2021-07-13 84.7 0 - 2012-07-13 84.7 0 7 2025-07-13 84.4 0 8 2016-07-13 84.2 0 - 2005-07-13 84.2 0 9 2022-07-13 84.0 0 10 2014-07-13 83.9 0 - 2011-07-13 83.9 0

Top 5 warmest summer so far for 70° minimums across the Northeast. High dew points and clouds keeping the lows up. Plenty of onshore flow with all the high pressure east of New England.

Enjoy. Montana will be one of the relatively cooler spots in a sea of warm this week. Good timing. If this was the winter, then people on here would be commenting on how another cooldown missed to our west again.

Yeah, the aerial coverage of the 850mb cold pool was among the smallest on record last winter. This is why that even though some of the coldest departures in the Northern Hemisphere were found in the CONUS, 2024-2025 was the 27th warmest winter at 34.07°. When we had much more expansive 850mb cold pools in the Northern Hemisphere back in the late 1970s, we had our coldest winter in 1978-1979 at 26.62°. The general observation has been the areas of the 500mb ridges have been expanding leaving smaller cold troughs. The late January 2025 Arctic outbreak in Baton Rouge LA and record snow was a great example of this recent phenomenon. Although they tied their all-time January low of 7°, the Arctic outbreak only lasted 3 days. They had a record high of 81° in early January and 83° in early February. So one of the more locally focused and limited Arctic outbreaks experienced in the CONUS. Overall January finished up at only the 25th coldest with a modest -3 cold departure against the warmest climate normals. Past occurrences of record snow and cold that far south was accompanied at times by historic cold and snow all the way to the East Coast which didn’t happen this time.

The city of Long Beach made a decision a long time ago that they were going to use the beach for generating revenue. Atlantic Beach to the west has beaches only for residents plus private beach clubs which many from places like the 5 towns and Garden City were members. Lido Beach has an only for residents section plus some beach parks for residents of the Town of Hempstead. Point Lookout is mostly residents only.

The summer of 2010 was really crowded in Long Beach with all the NYC to LB beach trains that summer. Very little parking was available and the local restaurants like Ginos were packed. Never experienced a summer like that in Long Beach with the lack of sea breezes. The 2010-2011 winter was one of the best winters ever in Long Beach. Snow mountains down near the boardwalk near Riverside where all the road crews brought the snow off the streets in dump trucks. Then the extreme July 2011 heat and the major flooding in August. First with the 11” deluge in a few hours around the 14th and the Irene coastal flooding near the end of the month. I moved out before Sandy. My old place was one of the few spots on the barrier Island where the flooding didn’t come into the house. The street flooded and it came over the curb. But the tide stopped rising 2 inches before coming over the top step into the first floor. Came back a few days after Sandy to visit all my old neighbors.

I enjoyed the beach days better during the cooler summers like 2009 and 2004. Much smaller crowds coming into Long Beach with less traffic and parking issues. Also significantly better temperatures for bike riding the boardwalk. During that cool 2004 summer there were plenty of days in the 70s in Long Beach. So on one occasion I was able to get a 40 mile bike ride in. During some of the warmest summers, it was a struggle to even get a good 10-20 miler in at times.

Both things can be true at the same time. Record dew points with the sea breeze front and convection getting pushed to our west. So we get a more stable high dew point marine layer along the coast.

The area around NYC has been fortunate in recent years that the most significant record low max temperatures have been going by to the north. If LGA was able to beat their previous low max of 86° back in 2013 by 2° like BTV did, then they would have their first 88° low. But luckily they have only had a low max of 84° in recent years.

Yeah, that was the coldest July 4th low for many across the region. Data for July 4, 1986 through July 4, 1986 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEWCOMB COOP 37 VT MOUNT MANSFIELD COOP 37 NY LAKE PLACID 2 S COOP 38 NY RAY BROOK COOP 39 VT CAVENDISH COOP 39 VT ENOSBURG FALLS COOP 39 for July 4, 1986 through July 4, 1986 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 35 NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 39 NJ LONG VALLEY COOP 41 NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 41 PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 42 NJ NEWTON COOP 42 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 43 NJ HIGH POINT PARK COOP 43 NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 43 NJ PEMBERTON COOP 44 PA HOPEWELL MORGANTOWN COOP 45 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 45 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 45 PA COATESVILLE 2 W COOP 45 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 46 PA GRATERFORD 1 E COOP 46 NJ TOMS RIVER COOP 46 PA NESHAMINY FALLS COOP 46 PA BUCKSVILLE COOP 46 NJ SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 46 Data for July 4, 1986 through July 4, 1986 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 41 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 43 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 43 NJ CRANFORD COOP 44 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 44 CT COCKAPONSET RANGER STA COOP 44 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 45 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 47 NY WESTBURY COOP 47 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 47 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 48 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 48 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 48 CT GROTON COOP 48 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 49 NY GARNERVILLE COOP 49 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 50 NY MINEOLA COOP 50 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 50 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 51 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 51 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 51 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 52 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 52 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 52 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 52 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 53 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 54 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 54 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 54 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 54 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 54 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 55 NY SCARSDALE COOP 55 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 55 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 56 NY GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 57 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 58 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 59 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 59

When I was growing up it was normal for NYC to have at least one July low in the 50s and POU in the 40s. Now both locations usually stay above 60° and 50° in July. Very challenging with record high dewpoints keeping the lows from dropping as much as they used to.

I grew up in Long Beach and mostly went to the beach for bodyboarding and bodysurfing. So I didn’t mind the occasional low clouds and foggy starts to the days. Some of the best wave conditions were on cloudy days with only intermittent breaks of sun. Plus those were some of the best days for the locals since it kept the big beach crowds away. Parking was always a big issue there. Many days there start out cloudy only to finish up sunny once the marine layer burns off. The Mediterranean is a whole different game with the drier conditions in places like Greece this time of year. One of my friends growing up was from Greece. His father owned several Greek restaurants in Long Beach over the years. They were a great family and wound up moving back to Greece.

Already seeing some breaks of sun down in Long Beach.

Looks like the best convection should stay just inland from the coast for at least the near term.

Nuisance drizzle but no relief from the recent dry pattern and having to water the garden to keep it going.

These low clouds were well forecast by the HRRR yesterday. I also noticed the low clouds moving in later in the day. Interior spots will slowly clear but it will take longer the further east you go today. HRRR forecast from 18z Saturday showed the low clouds Current HRRR slow clearing from west to east today

More extreme heavy rainfall leading to record flooding is the result of the record increasing atmospheric moisture content as the world continues to warm. https://www.copernicus.eu/en/news/news/observer-copernicus-climate-change-service-tracks-record-atmospheric-moisture-and-sea Water vapour: the invisible amplifier of global warming In 2024 the atmosphere held more moisture than previously recorded by a large margin. Total column water vapour—the total amount of moisture in a vertical column of air extending from the surface of the Earth to the top of the atmosphere—reached 4.9% above the 1991–2020 average, far surpassing previous highs in 2016 (3.4%) and 2023 (3.3%). Water vapour is Earth’s most abundant greenhouse gas, responsible for about half of the planet’s natural greenhouse effect. Unlike other greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH4), the concentration of water vapour in the atmosphere is not directly influenced by human activities. However, water vapour concentration rises as the atmosphere warms: for every 1°C increase in atmospheric temperature, air can hold 7% more moisture. This creates a vicious cycle—warmer air absorbs more vapour, which traps more heat, further accelerating warming. Annual anomalies in the average amount of total column water vapour over the 60°S–60°N domain relative to the average for the 1992–2020 reference period. The anomalies are expressed as a percentage of the 1992–2020 average. Data: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF. “Water vapour is both a consequence and a driver of climate change,” explains C3S Director Carlo Buontempo. “In 2024, we saw this feedback loop in ‘overdrive’. Higher sea surface temperatures intensified evaporation, whilst warmer atmosphere allowed more water to be held there as vapour, adding ‘fuel’ to several extreme weather events.” The consequences are potentially disastrous. Increased atmospheric moisture can intensify storms and increase the intensity of the most extreme rainfall. The atmosphere knows no borders, so the potential effects are global.

SMQ has seen a 5° rise in maximum July dew points since the late 90s from 67.5° to 72.5° similar to places like ISP.

JFK is much closer to the top of the list on 70° lows with the much higher dewpoints. 70° Low Data for January 1, 2025 through July 12, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 21 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 21 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 20 New York-Central Park Area ThreadEx 20 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 17 New York-Kennedy Airport Area ThreadEx 17 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 14 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 14 Islip Area ThreadEx 14 70° Low Data for January 1, 2025 through July 12, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 19 Newark Area ThreadEx 19 ATLANTIC CITY MARINA WBAN 18 HARRISON COOP 18 Atlantic City Marina Area ThreadEx 18 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 17 MARGATE COOP 16 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 15 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 15 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 15 EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 15 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 15 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 15 ESTELL MANOR COOP 14

Yeah, the ridge axis was to our west. This is why JFK only has around half as many 90° days as NJ this year so far. The warm spots in NJ may very well top 40 days reaching 90° again this year. While the number to the east of NYC with the sea breeze will be much lower. The ridge axis has been located to the east of New England again this summer. 90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 11, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Newark Area ThreadEx 18 OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 18 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 18 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 16 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 16 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 16 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 16 HARRISON COOP 16 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 14 90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 11, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 13 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 13 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 11 PORT JERVIS COOP 10 SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP 10 POUGHKEEPSIE/HUDSON VALLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 10 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 10 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 10 ST. JAMES COOP 10 DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 9 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 9 New York-Kennedy Airport Area ThreadEx 9 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 9 VICTOR 2NW COOP 8 LANSING MANOR COOP 8 WEBSTER 2 NE COOP 8 GANG MILLS NEW YORK RAWS 8 SHERBURNE NEW YORK RAWS 8 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 7 HUDSON CORRECTIONAL FACILITY COOP 7 DANSVILLE COOP 7 SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP WBAN 7 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 7 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 7 Islip Area ThreadEx 7 Syracuse Area ThreadEx 7 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 6 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 6 SHRUB OAK COOP 6 MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 6

The ridge during that 10 day heatwave in Central Park from 7-7-93 to 7-16-93 was centered in SE PA. Lower heights and pressures over New England kept the flow W to SW here. So no onshore flow influence back then like we are getting now.

Our longest heatwave around the area was 20 days from 7-29-88 to 8-17-88 at Newark. The ridge axis and strongest 500mb height anomaly was centered over the Great Lakes. At the surface the Bermuda high was pressed to our south with lower pressure over New England keeping the flow more SW. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1988-07-29 95 1988-07-30 99 1988-07-31 90 1988-08-01 91 1988-08-02 94 1988-08-03 93 1988-08-04 92 1988-08-05 90 1988-08-06 90 1988-08-07 93 1988-08-08 90 1988-08-09 92 1988-08-10 93 1988-08-11 97 1988-08-12 95 1988-08-13 98 1988-08-14 98 1988-08-15 99 1988-08-16 92 1988-08-17 90

When the WAR pushes into New England from the east we get more high pressure there leading to onshore flow here. Back in the old days we would get a strong ridge over the Great Lakes leading to more westerly flow here. But these days that area gets more troughs over the summer.

Strong WAR pattern setting up over the next week to 10 days. So plenty of onshore flow and cooling afternoon sea breezes east of NYC at the beaches. This will push the sea breeze front west of NYC keeping the strongest heat there. It will also keep the best convection west of Long Island. So plenty of lawn watering on tap to prevent the brown lawn syndrome which has become common on Long Island with these dry July patterns. July 14-21 forecast