bluewave

Not sure yet at this point. But past instances of widespread 100° heat followed by 5”+ deluges usually didn’t have more widespread 100°s from NJ out to Suffolk. But it wouldn’t take much for some scattered 100° heat for the usual warm spots in NJ.

Yeah, the number of these extreme rainfalls and flooding have been steadily increasing across the entire planet. Some areas which are more arid have been experiencing rapid swings between extreme drought and flooding as the water cycle accelerates. So on the list of concerns flooding will rank very high in a much warmer world.

Yeah, each day I walk around the Tweed airport just to my west. The vegetation and grassy areas around have gradually been turning brown last few weeks. Par for the course with the dry pattern and record heat since June 1st. We have generally had under 3 inches since June 1st. The 6 days reaching 90° since June 1st is 2nd highest here from June 1st to July 14th. June 1st to July 14th Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-07-14 2.80 0 2024-07-14 6.36 0 2023-07-14 5.29 1 2022-07-14 2.45 0 2021-07-14 7.73 0 2020-07-14 3.97 0

Those amounts along the South Shore dropped off very quickly to the east of Queens. Same up here where I got very little on the CT Shoreline and more to my NW. The lawns and grassy areas around the airport here have begun turning brown up here. The rains usually reach the South Shore areas a little later in time.

Only .5 to .6 from Massapequa out along the South Shore Suffolk. It was another case of the 1.00”+ totals staying closer to the North Shore like we often see this time of year. Remember it was August last year when LI got the 10 inch plus totals. So the 6 inch plus totals stayed to our west. Even here on the CT Shore hardly got much as the lawns are beginning to turn brown here.

The South Shore of LI only got around .5 or less same as the CT shore by me. Everything greatly weakened once east of NJ which got 6”+. NYC was the transition zone.

Only a 3 day period back in June with enough westerly flow before the dominant onshore flow pattern since.

The South Shore hardly got anything compared to the areas just inland from the coast.

Even here along the CT Shoreline we have seen a big increase in 75°+ dew point days over the last decade.

It will be interesting to see this time since we usually don’t get widespread 100° heat after these major flash flood events. This has been very monsoon-like during recent summers. First we get the widespread 100° heat followed by a 5”+ or 10”+ deluges.

At least 3 reports of 6”+ from Union County where the SPC HREF had its local max. So a good performance from the model. This almost had some PRE-like characteristics with the weak tropical low near Florida. Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NJ-UN-42 Station Name: Westfield 0.8 WSW Data Explorer Observation Date 7/15/2025 6:24 AM Submitted 7/15/2025 6:26 AM Gauge Catch 6.24 in. Notes Historic rain for 4 straight hours, +1” / hour Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NJ-UN-39 Station Name: Clark Twp 0.7 SSW Data Explorer Observation Date 7/15/2025 7:00 AM Submitted 7/15/2025 7:13 AM Gauge Catch 6.12 in. Notes I submitted several significant weather reports during the storm. A multitude of water rescues were conducted by the Clark Fire Department. Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NJ-UN-36 Station Name: Clark Twp 1.3 ENE Data Explorer Observation Date 7/15/2025 6:59 AM Submitted 7/15/2025 7:04 AM Gauge Catch 6.67 in. Notes Mostly Sunny…humid…72F

Video clips from the area…

The key to reducing the anxiety is preparedness and awareness. I was very young when my basement apartment got flooded out during Agnes in 1972. So I started paying very close attention to the weather from that point forward.

The warming atmosphere from excess CO2 holds more moisture for these extreme rainfall events. https://www.copernicus.eu/en/news/news/observer-copernicus-climate-change-service-tracks-record-atmospheric-moisture-and-sea Water vapour: the invisible amplifier of global warming In 2024 the atmosphere held more moisture than previously recorded by a large margin. Total column water vapour—the total amount of moisture in a vertical column of air extending from the surface of the Earth to the top of the atmosphere—reached 4.9% above the 1991–2020 average, far surpassing previous highs in 2016 (3.4%) and 2023 (3.3%). Water vapour is Earth’s most abundant greenhouse gas, responsible for about half of the planet’s natural greenhouse effect. Unlike other greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH4), the concentration of water vapour in the atmosphere is not directly influenced by human activities. However, water vapour concentration rises as the atmosphere warms: for every 1°C increase in atmospheric temperature, air can hold 7% more moisture. This creates a vicious cycle—warmer air absorbs more vapour, which traps more heat, further accelerating warming. Annual anomalies in the average amount of total column water vapour over the 60°S–60°N domain relative to the average for the 1992–2020 reference period. The anomalies are expressed as a percentage of the 1992–2020 average. Data: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF. “Water vapour is both a consequence and a driver of climate change,” explains C3S Director Carlo Buontempo. “In 2024, we saw this feedback loop in ‘overdrive’. Higher sea surface temperatures intensified evaporation, whilst warmer atmosphere allowed more water to be held there as vapour, adding ‘fuel’ to several extreme weather events.” The consequences are potentially disastrous. Increased atmospheric moisture can intensify storms and increase the intensity of the most extreme rainfall. The atmosphere knows no borders, so the potential effects are

Yeah, these extreme heavy rainfall events have become all too common.

Impressive performance from the SPC HREF highlighting that 6”+ max potential around Union County.

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service New York NY 558 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0550 PM Flash Flood Clark 40.62N 74.31W 07/14/2025 Union NJ Trained Spotter Reservoir overtopping and spilling onto nearby streets and into houses.

MPO closing in on a record breaking 20 inches of rain since May 1st. Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) May 1st to July 13th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-07-13 18.78 0 2 1952-07-13 18.33 0 3 1989-07-13 17.94 0 4 2013-07-13 17.92 0 5 1972-07-13 17.77 0 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 337 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northeastern Carbon County in northeastern Pennsylvania... Northwestern Monroe County in northeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 745 PM EDT. * At 337 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other drainage and low lying areas. * Some locations that may experience flash flooding include... Mount Pocono, Tobyhanna, Pocono Pines, Long Pond, Pocono Raceway, Gouldsboro State Park, Arrowhead Lake, Blakeslee, Lake Harmony, Meckesville, Albrightsville and Paradise Valley. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around...don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route. Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or creeks. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.

We started seeing these very strong ridges over the Pacific Northwest and Northeast in recent years. A general expansion of the subtropical ridges leading record SSTs and land temperatures under these near to record 500mb ridges. So the WPAC has seen one of the more dramatic ridge expansions leading record SSTs in recent years.

I am glad that you were one of the few parts of the country to get some record frozen precipitation last winter like the Gulf Coast. But it was narrowly focused over the Southeast. The January cold in your area didn’t have any lasting power as there were multiple record 80°+ highs shortly after.

Higher humidity equals more clouds.

Steady decrease in lows under 10° across the Northeast with many locations recording some of there lowest winter numbers during the 2020s.

The minimums have set a new record across the area at spots like SMQ for the first half of summer. The average maximum was 7th warmest. But since last year featured the warmest average high, 7th place this year feels cooler by comparison. So it’s all relative to what we are getting acclimated to. Warmest Minimum Temperatures through 7-13Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-07-13 62.6 0 2 2013-07-13 62.2 0 3 2024-07-13 61.1 0 4 2021-07-13 60.8 0 - 2005-07-13 60.8 0 5 2006-07-13 60.7 0 6 2010-07-13 60.1 0 7 2020-07-13 59.9 0 - 2014-07-13 59.9 0 8 2015-07-13 59.8 17 9 2008-07-13 59.7 0 10 2011-07-13 59.5 0 - 1999-07-13 59.5 8 Warmest Average Maximum Temperature Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-13 87.7 0 2 2010-07-13 86.3 0 3 2020-07-13 85.5 0 4 1999-07-13 85.3 8 5 2008-07-13 85.0 0 6 2021-07-13 84.7 0 - 2012-07-13 84.7 0 7 2025-07-13 84.4 0 8 2016-07-13 84.2 0 - 2005-07-13 84.2 0 9 2022-07-13 84.0 0 10 2014-07-13 83.9 0 - 2011-07-13 83.9 0