bluewave

The drought feedback is giving this early season warmth a boost. So it’s possible we can see our first 80° warmth of the season on Saturday. Going forward it looks like the warm front will stall out to our north into early April with continued below normal rainfall. If the rains don’t eventually come next few months, then this kind of warmth could be our summer preview.

We mostly use the meteorological seasons like MAM for spring. Back during the 2010s March was often like a winter month with cold and snow. But since 2020 March has been a spring month with well above average temperatures and very little snowfall. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 46.2 46.2 2025 45.5 45.5 2024 48.1 48.1 2023 44.6 44.6 2022 45.3 45.3 2021 45.8 45.8 2020 48.0 48.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 42.7 42.7 2019 41.7 41.7 2018 40.1 40.1 2017 39.2 39.2 2016 48.9 48.9 2015 38.1 38.1 2014 37.7 37.7 2013 40.1 40.1 2012 50.9 50.9 2011 42.3 42.3 2010 48.2 48.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.0 6.0 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T

You know that March has been warming very quickly in the 2020s when +7° on the highs isn’t considered warm any more.

How far north the warm front gets on Saturday will be determined by which of the two high pressure systems are stronger. If the Bermuda high is stronger like in recent runs, then the warm front will come further north. But if the Canadian high is stronger than there will be more if a struggle to come north. Since the temperature gradient is so steep, there could be a 30°+ temperature shift over a few miles. So we are getting the 0z to 12z windshield wiper effect until we get close enough for one solution to win out. New run stronger Bermuda high and warm front further north Old run Canadian high stronger so warm front further south

Great analysis on the recent acceleration of the global warming. Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf ‪@rahmstorf.bsky.social‬ Follow Has global warming accelerated? „At that rate (0.1 °C every 3 years), after we blow past 1.5 °C (this year or next?) it’ll take just 15 more years to reach 2 °C.“ tamino.wordpress.com/2025/03/23/r... Recent Global Temperature: Acceleration or Surge? RealClimate has an excellent post about how exceptional the years 2023 and 2024 were (in terms of global temperature). Here are annual averages since 1970, data from NASA: tamino.wordpress.com March 23, 2025 at 9:58 AM Everybody can reply

Yeah, the GFS has been in last place among the majors with the strong cold bias and multiple long range snowstorms.

No matter how much these models progress, it’s going to be very hard to pin down the exact location of a backdoor cold front beyond 120 hrs. You can see the impressive temperature gradient potential for next weekend. While most of NJ has already had a 70° day this month, the last shot for NYC may come down to the wire on the 31st.

The average last freeze in NYC during the 2020s has been 3-24. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 03-01 (2020) 10-31 (2020) 233 Mean 03-24 11-19 240 Maximum 04-03 (2021) 11-30 (2024) 250 2024 03-24 (2024) 31 11-30 (2024) 30 250 2023 03-30 (2023) 31 11-25 (2023) 30 239 2022 03-30 (2022) 29 11-19 (2022) 31 233 2021 04-03 (2021) 32 11-23 (2021) 32 233 2020 03-01 (2020) 25 10-31 (2020) 32 243

The records at Islip only go back to the 1960s. The low of 31° today was also well above the record low of 15° set in 2004. But when we have a month of top 10 warmth even a -3° feels relatively cold in comparison. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 47 244 PM 75 2012 50 -3 52 MINIMUM 31 620 AM 15 2004 34 -3 35 AVERAGE 39 42 -3 44

There was nothing unusual about the cool down this morning since the record for the date is 13° and NYC only made it to 31°. Data for March 23 - NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1934-03-23 25 13 T T T 1875-03-23 32 13 0.00 0.0 M 1888-03-23 20 14 0.00 0.0 M 1885-03-23 26 16 0.00 0.0 M 1940-03-23 28 18 T T 0 1906-03-23 27 19 0.00 0.0 M 1874-03-23 44 19 0.00 0.0 M 1959-03-23 47 20 0.00 0.0 0 1916-03-23 36 22 T T 2 2017-03-23 42 23 0.00 0.0 0 2015-03-23 38 23 0.00 0.0 0

My guess is that most days will be over 50° next few weeks in NYC. The average high this week is 53° which rises to 57° in early April. We even made it close to 50° today behind the cold front.

The EPS is warmer overall next few weeks with a few colder days mixed in when the backdoors drop south before retreating north again. March 24-31 March 31 to April 7th

Possibly in NYC.

Today should be our first colder day in almost 3 weeks. Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - March 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1252 811 - - 393 0 3.25 0.0 - Average 56.9 36.9 46.9 5.7 - - - - 0.0 Normal 49.4 32.9 41.2 - 525 0 2.95 4.7 2025-03-01 65 28 46.5 8.2 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-02 37 21 29.0 -9.5 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-03 41 22 31.5 -7.3 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-04 59 28 43.5 4.4 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-05 61 41 51.0 11.7 14 0 1.53 0.0 0 2025-03-06 57 37 47.0 7.4 18 0 T 0.0 0 2025-03-07 53 35 44.0 4.2 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-08 48 36 42.0 1.9 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-09 56 28 42.0 1.6 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-10 69 39 54.0 13.3 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-11 67 44 55.5 14.6 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-12 54 45 49.5 8.3 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-13 52 41 46.5 5.0 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-14 55 42 48.5 6.7 16 0 T 0.0 0 2025-03-15 48 42 45.0 2.9 20 0 T 0.0 0 2025-03-16 70 47 58.5 16.1 6 0 T 0.0 0 2025-03-17 64 38 51.0 8.3 14 0 0.75 0.0 0 2025-03-18 64 35 49.5 6.5 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-19 62 43 52.5 9.2 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-03-20 51 43 47.0 3.4 18 0 0.96 0.0 0 2025-03-21 54 40 47.0 3.1 18 0 0.01 0.0 0 2025-03-22 65 36 50.5 6.2 14 0 T 0.0 0 2025-03-23 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-24 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-25 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-26 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-27 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-28 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-29 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-30 M M M M M M M M M 2025-03-31 M M M M M M M M M

High winds continue to be the big story with that locally severe squall line last night.

The Euro has the strongest backdoor gradient of the spring so far with low 80s in PA and 70s in NJ with 30s in Upstate NY.

Even NYC will have a shot at 70° next weekend so that below 70° for DJFM may not hold.

Our area east of the Hudson has been a different story than NJ and interior SENY due to the onshore flow during the stronger WAA days. So we had to settle for only around + 7° for the maxes this month vs the 10°+ and numerous 70° days west. Even though +7° is still a significant departure for highs, it will limit our March 70° potential since the average high on Long Island in March is only in the 40s for most of the month.

Warm pattern for early April as the Southeast Ridge links up again with the Greenland Block.

The warm up for next weekend will have more of an onshore flow again with the 70s away from the immediate shore.

The reason that we had the westerly flow since December was due to all the Great Lakes cutters and coastal hugger storm tracks. But during the summer we don’t get so many windy storm and frontal passages as the storms get weaker. So the summer wind direction will be determined by more subtle influences like where the 500mb ridge axis sets up. Over the last decade the ridge axis has become more elongated to the east of New England. So areas near the coast get more of a sea breeze influence. Back in the 2010 to 2013 era we had a Southeast Ridge which built more into the Great Lakes than to the east of New England. This allowed more SW to W flow around the Bermuda High. So the Westerly flow was a function of the ridge location rather than an active storm track to our west like this winter into early spring so far. All the warm ups this spring so far have had more onshore flow influence with numerous 70° days west of the Hudson and cooler highs to the east. We’ll have to see if this pattern repeats again over the summer. One way it could get interrupted is if a strong drought feedback develops to our west allowing more ridging near the Great Lakes than a weak trough and higher heights east of New England. Still too early to tell if this will be the case yet.

Still too early to guess the exact wind direction and rainfall pattern as we head into the summer. We had a dry pattern heading into the summer of 2022 and still got onshore flow east of NYC with over 5 days reaching 100° in NJ west of the sea breeze front. I don’t have much confidence in the models beyond 8-15 days for specifics like wind direction so it will just be a wait and see approach as usual.

These strong downslope days have been beating guidance so we could make it to the low to mid 50s which is a little warmer than the 51° average high.

I will say something different is happening this time around. Models show the cold blob fading this summer. But notice how this has been a localized event with the rest of the Atlantic staying near record warmth. Back in the 1980s the entire Atlantic ocean was much colder. The Atlantic has cooled off from the record SSTs of 2024 and is back to 2022 to 2023 levels. Notice how much colder the 1980s were in comparison. What we are seeing now may be related to the upwelling from the record westerly flow this last winter. But this is expected to relax as we head into the summer with much less westerly flow.

Record decoupled pattern this winter so the stratosphere hasn’t had the influence that it usually does. Plus it’s more of a final warming than a strong SSW. This has been a bottom up pattern rather than a top down one.