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Everything posted by bluewave
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Some newer studies are backing off those older predictions. -
That’s the composite for the old days. Our new El Nino back in 23-24 had the mid-latitude marine heatwaves from Japan across the Atlantic to near Spain. So it resulted in a record warm pattern for North America even though the ONI was much weaker than 15-16 and 97-98.
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
While our summers here have become much warmer since 2010, at least they aren’t warming at the rate that Western Europe is. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The reason the 1995 summer was so humid with the nearly 130° heat index around 7-15 was due to corn sweat pooling under the inversion and getting transported to the East Coast. -
Yeah, that’s why I posted it since it went into more detail on the same paper that you posted. This new -PDO is defined more by a warmer Western Pacific and stronger Aleutian Ridge from the older days. This leads to a further north storm tracks during the winter through the Great Lakes with warmer and less snowy conditions for our area. The older -PDO with a cooler Eastern Pacific and less WPAC warming had a weaker Aleutian Ridge. So we would often get colder and snowier winters under that -PDO regime from the last 40s into mid 70s. Plus the background climate has warmed so much more in general since then. This is why the Southeast Ridge has expanded so much over the last decade and it was often not even a factor back in those days. In addition, warming of the Atlantic resembling a +AMO is also probably boosting the 500 mb heights near the East Coast. This new pattern of mid-latitude rising 500mb heights and SSTs resembles a mid-latitude El Niño while the tropics have been more in La Niña mode.
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
More onshore flow due to the rising 500mb heights to the north and east of New England since around 2018. Those older summers had higher 500mb heights over the Great Lakes. So we would get more persistent westerly flow during those summers. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The ridge to the east of New England during the summers has been giving us more onshore flow. But it’s located further to the west during the winter. So we get more SW to W flow then with all the Great Lakes cutters. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
This paper below explains why the circulation pattern shift is related to the warming and it focuses more on the Pacific side. But we have been seeing similar shifts in the Atlantic leading to more ridging east of New England. It results the repeating weather patterns we have been experiencing over the last decade. Don just posted this in the La Niña thread in the main forum. I added this link below. https://scienmag.com/north-pacific-climate-shifts-drive-southwest-us-drought/ -
Thanks for posting that paper which really confirms how significant a shift has occurred in the North Pacific. There was another article recently published on this paper which expands on the one that you posted. While this wasn’t what many of us on the forum wanted to hear, at least the team of researchers were clever enough to tie together paleoclimate reconstructions together with advanced climate modeling for a more coherent picture of what has been going on. https://scienmag.com/north-pacific-climate-shifts-drive-southwest-us-drought/ In recent years, the American Southwest has been gripped by one of the most prolonged and severe droughts in recorded history. While variations in precipitation and temperature have long challenged water resource management in this already arid region, the ongoing drought has raised alarm bells for scientists, policymakers, and residents alike. Understanding what drives these shifts in water availability is critical to anticipating future risks and developing adaptive strategies. A groundbreaking new study published in Nature Geoscience now provides compelling evidence that warming in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in the North Pacific, plays a pivotal role in shaping drought patterns over the Southwest United States through complex ocean-atmosphere interactions. This research combines innovative paleoclimate reconstructions with advanced climate modeling to unravel how moderate warming episodes in Earth’s past—specifically during the mid-Holocene, around 6,000 years ago—triggered oceanic and atmospheric responses that closely mirror modern drought conditions. By studying leaf-wax stable isotopes preserved in sediment cores, the authors reconstructed ancient rainfall patterns with unprecedented precision. These reconstructions revealed that subtle changes in ocean temperatures off the North Pacific coast led to atmospheric circulation shifts that suppressed precipitation across the Southwest, a mechanism remarkably similar to currently observed drought drivers. What makes this work especially illuminating is its identification of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as a critical mediator in this process. The PDO is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterized by long-term fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the North Pacific Ocean that profoundly influence weather and climate patterns across North America. The study’s findings indicate that moderate hemispheric warming can excite a PDO-like state—specifically its negative phase—resulting in sustained drying conditions in the Southwest. This conclusion challenges prior assumptions that natural oscillations would eventually reverse and alleviate drought conditions, instead implying that external forcings such as global warming may stabilize drought-inducing patterns. The implications for future climate projections are sobering. Simulations of twenty-first century climate pathways, driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, demonstrate that similar ocean-atmosphere dynamics are likely to emerge and endure. These simulations forecast persistent reductions in winter precipitation over the Southwest through at least the mid-century, exacerbating the region’s already critical water scarcity issues. Given that winter rains supply a substantial portion of the region’s annual precipitation and recharge vital aquifers, prolonged deficits pose significant threats to agriculture, urban water supplies, and natural ecosystems. However, the study also reveals that current climate models may underestimate the severity of these precipitation deficits. The authors suggest that the ocean-atmosphere coupling—how strongly and accurately models simulate the interaction between ocean warmth and atmospheric circulation—is likely too weak in existing frameworks. This underestimation means that official drought risk assessments and water management strategies may not be adequately prepared for the intensity or duration of future dry spells dictated by North Pacific variability under a warming climate. This advances a growing body of evidence underscoring the Pacific Ocean’s outsized influence on terrestrial climate variability in the western United States. The North Pacific’s role is multifaceted, involving the modulation of storm tracks, alterations in jet stream position and strength, and changes in moisture transport pathways. By illuminating the mechanisms through which relatively moderate warming perturbs this system, the research offers a nuanced understanding of regional climate dynamics that transcends simplistic attributions to long-term warming or random variability alone. Perhaps most compellingly, the paleoclimate perspective grants the study an unparalleled vantage point. Utilizing ancient environmental archives to calibrate and validate model simulations bridges the gap between historical climate fluctuations and future projection scenarios. This approach ensures that the conclusions are firmly rooted in empirical evidence, helping to surmount some of the uncertainties that plague climate prediction in complex transitional zones like the Southwest. The mid-Holocene period serves as a natural analog for how the contemporary Earth climate system might respond to ongoing warming trends. The study’s methodology highlights the innovative use of leaf-wax isotopes, a biomarker that preserves signals of past hydrological conditions through changes in hydrogen isotope ratios. This technique captures past rainfall variability integrated over plant growing seasons and provides a proxy record that can be spatially and temporally correlated with model outputs. Such high-resolution paleoclimate data strengthen confidence in attributing Southwest drought episodes to ocean-driven atmospheric circulations rather than isolated terrestrial or stochastic factors. In practical terms, these findings emphasize the need for water managers, urban planners, and policymakers to incorporate dynamic ocean-atmosphere feedbacks into drought risk models and resource allocation strategies. Static assessments based solely on historical precipitation trends could lead to dangerously optimistic assumptions. Instead, adaptive frameworks must account for the possibility that warming seas off the Pacific Northwest and Alaska may sustain drying influences for decades, intensifying competition for scarce water supplies across municipal, agricultural, and ecological sectors. Scientists are also calling for an urgent refinement of climate models to better replicate the subtle but critical feedbacks identifying the ocean’s influence on atmospheric patterns that steer precipitation regimes. Such improvements are crucial, as underestimating these processes risks downplaying the Southwest’s vulnerability to exacerbated drought conditions and the cascading socioeconomic impacts that follow. Enhanced model sophistication will also improve the reliability of seasonal and decadal forecasts, crucial for water allocation decisions in drought-prone regions. Furthermore, this research situates the Southwest drought within the broader context of anthropogenic climate change, illustrating that natural variability modes like the PDO can be amplified or modulated by human-driven warming. This intersection complicates predictions but also stresses the urgency of climate mitigation efforts. Without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, these drought-favoring ocean-atmosphere states may become increasingly entrenched, imperiling water security for millions of residents and straining fragile ecosystems. The findings also contribute to the growing discourse on climate resilience and the need for sustainable water use practices. Recognizing that intensified drought risk is not merely cyclical but potentially a forced response to anthropogenic warming highlights the importance of diversified water portfolios, investments in conservation technologies, and reforms in water rights systems. Communities in the Southwest must prepare for a future where drought is not an anomaly but a persistent stressor shaped by global climate dynamics. In summary, this landmark study integrating paleoclimate evidence and future climate modeling transforms our understanding of the Southwest United States drought by pinpointing the North Pacific ocean-atmosphere system as a central driver modulated by Northern Hemisphere warming. It challenges prevailing assumptions about the transitory nature of current drought conditions and suggests that external forcing is capable of sustaining drought-inducing oceanic patterns similar to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This new insight demands meaningful recalibrations in climate prediction frameworks and resource management policies to adequately prepare for a potentially drier future under continued global warming. The message is unequivocal: the interplay between warming seas and atmospheric circulation cannot be overlooked if we aim to understand and combat the growing risks of drought in one of America’s most vulnerable regions. As the Southwest grapples with dwindling water supplies amidst cities and landscapes dependent on reliable precipitation, this research underscores the urgent need to enhance predictive capabilities and strengthen societal resilience in the face of a changing climate punctuated by powerful ocean-driven droughts.
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Don’t know if we can repeat 2010 east of NYC since the summer circulation patterns have shifted so much since then. Prior to 15-16 we would often get ridges over the Great Lakes and westerly flow summers. Since then we get a ridge over New England and the Rockies. This leaves a trough closer to the Great Lakes and more onshore flow here. So getting 30 days reaching 90° at JFK will be a challenge with onshore flow. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
2010 will always be a tough act to follow east of NYC with how much more onshore flow we have been getting the last decade. This summer we had that one interval back in late June when westerly flow made it down to the coast. But the onshore flow quickly returned. Parts of NJ surpassed 2010 for 90° days back in 2022 away from the sea breeze. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Top 10 Years For 90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 - 1949 18 0 5 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0 6 2022 16 0 - 2012 16 0 - 1959 16 3 - 1955 16 2 7 2016 15 0 - 1995 15 0 - 1961 15 0 8 1999 14 0 - 1988 14 0 - 1966 14 0 - 1952 14 0 9 2011 13 0 - 1993 13 0 - 1984 13 0 - 1977 13 0 - 1970 13 0 - 1969 13 0 - 1963 13 0 10 2020 12 0 - 2015 12 0 - 2006 12 0 - 2003 12 0 - 1978 12 0 - 1968 12 0 - 1953 12 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 54 0 2 2022 49 0 - 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 Time Series Summary for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ - Jan through Dec Top 10 Years For 90° Days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2022 49 2 2 2010 48 4 3 2016 46 2 4 2020 42 0 5 2024 41 2 - 2021 41 0 - 1988 41 0 6 1983 40 0 7 2002 37 0 8 2018 36 1 - 2015 36 3 - 1957 36 0 - 1930 36 1 - 1895 36 11 9 2019 35 0 - 1999 35 0 - 1894 35 12 10 1944 34 1 -
It’s only an anomaly if we use the CMIP5 models which incorrectly forecast the EPAC warming faster than the WPAC. The GFDL model has done much better capturing the faster WPAC warming. We have seen time and time again that weather and climate modeling isn’t an exact science. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/11/jcli-d-16-0441.1.xml The majority of the models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global warming experiments warm faster in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean than in the west. GFDL-ESM2M is an exception among the state-of-the-art global climate models in that the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the west warms faster than in the east, and the Walker circulation strengthens in response to warming. This study shows that this “La Niña–like” trend simulated by GFDL-ESM2M could be a physically consistent response to warming, and that the forced response could have been detectable since the late twentieth century. Two additional models are examined: GFDL-ESM2G, which differs from GFDL-ESM2M only in the oceanic components, warms without a clear zonal SST gradient; and HadGEM2-CC exhibits a warming pattern that resembles the multimodel mean. A fundamental observed constraint between the amplitude of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the mean-state zonal SST gradient is reproduced well by GFDL-ESM2M but not by the other two models, which display substantially weaker ENSO nonlinearity than is observed. Under this constraint, the weakening nonlinear ENSO amplitude in GFDL-ESM2M rectifies the mean state to be La Niña–like. GFDL-ESM2M exhibits more realistic equatorial thermal stratification than GFDL-ESM2G, which appears to be the most important difference for the ENSO nonlinearity. On longer time scales, the weaker polar amplification in GFDL-ESM2M may also explain the origin of the colder equatorial upwelling water, which could in turn weaken the ENSO amplitude.
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The stronger WAR than forecast, which has become a repeating theme, pushed the rainfall axis further west. New run Old run -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Coastal areas are running a small rainfall deficit this year leading to the D0 conditions with the record June and July heat. ISP PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.27 1.19 2010 0.10 0.17 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 1.72 0.94 0.78 0.12 SINCE JUN 1 3.60 4.94 -1.34 2.56 SINCE JAN 1 19.33 23.74 -4.41 29.94 -
The subsurface of the WPAC near Japan is also at all-time record warm levels. So even after the trough there last winter, the SSTs rapidly rebounded once the record 500mb ridge returned. The record SSTs driving the -PDO along with the strong 500mb ridging seem to have entered a feedback loop which will be very difficult to interrupt. https://link.springer.com/epdf/10.1007/s10872-025-00764-w?sharing_token=J-9irySGxF9HZQFLbNJGDve4RwlQNchNByi7wbcMAY7wFuZ-ylVtGh1WkIZzeCeQ7fT_EW6c-yTyHjHGAbkHkCIuMkU2ciJtaEwncsfGWwMweI1zmVqAoQWL6L9qQ_p-2UuxUREesHtW412KA2GJ2gCcNnxXT5r3CdJOSYmJ8_4%3D
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Typical July brown lawn special coming up for Long Island as the WAR is just a little too strong. So the heaviest convection is focused more in the interior. It doesn’t take much with the heat this time of year for the drought monitor to introduce D0 conditions. Happens quite a bit on Long Island this time of year. But the heavy rains usually end up being more impressive from later in the summer into the fall. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
It’s been tough to get 100° heat anywhere around the region in September. Could be related to the monsoonal type summers which have been increasing. Even August 100° heat isn’t as common anymore. June 100 days Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 3 0 2 2021 2 0 - 1994 2 0 - 1943 2 0 5 2024 1 0 - 2011 1 0 - 1993 1 0 - 1988 1 0 - 1966 1 0 - 1959 1 0 - 1953 1 0 - 1952 1 0 - 1934 1 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 1 0 - 2021 1 0 - 2017 1 0 - 2008 1 0 - 1952 1 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 2 0 July 100° days Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2022 5 0 - 1949 5 0 3 2010 4 0 - 1993 4 0 - 1988 4 0 - 1966 4 0 7 2012 3 0 - 2011 3 0 - 1999 3 0 - 1955 3 0 11 2013 2 0 - 1997 2 0 - 1991 2 0 - 1980 2 0 - 1977 2 0 - 1954 2 0 - 1936 2 0 18 2025 1 21 - 2005 1 0 - 2002 1 0 - 1995 1 0 - 1986 1 0 - 1982 1 0 - 1963 1 0 - 1957 1 0 - 1937 1 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2013 2 0 - 2010 2 0 - 1999 2 0 - 1991 2 0 - 1966 2 0 - 1955 2 0 7 2019 1 0 - 2012 1 0 - 2011 1 0 - 2006 1 0 - 2005 1 0 - 1995 1 0 - 1957 1 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 3 0 - 1966 3 0 3 2011 2 0 - 1993 2 0 5 2013 1 0 - 1999 1 0 - 1983 1 0 - 1972 1 0 - 1963 1 0 - 1957 1 0 August 100° days Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1953 4 0 - 1944 4 0 3 2006 3 0 - 2001 3 0 - 1993 3 0 - 1949 3 0 7 2005 2 0 - 1948 2 0 9 2024 1 0 - 2022 1 0 - 2002 1 0 - 1973 1 0 - 1955 1 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2006 3 0 2 1955 2 0 - 1953 2 0 4 2005 1 0 - 2001 1 0 - 1948 1 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1948 2 0 2 1983 1 0 September 100° days Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1993 1 0 - 1953 1 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1953 1 0 -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Familiar summer pattern coming up of cool in the middle snd warm along the coasts. Hopefully, we can get some decent rains on Long Island. But the forecast looks to keep the heaviest just inland from the coast. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I would guess that Runyon 110° high was an error that never got corrected since its a few miles the east of New Brunswick and they only made it to 105°. Monthly Data for July 1936 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. RUNYON COOP 110 PEMBERTON COOP 107 MERCHANTVILLE COOP 106 PLEASANTVILLE 1 N COOP 106 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 106 ROEBLING COOP 106 TRENTON WBAN 106 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 106 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 106 Trenton Area ThreadEx 106 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 106 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 106 PLAINFIELD COOP 106 BELVIDERE COOP 106 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 106 TUCKERTON 2 NE COOP 105 CAMDEN COOP 105 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 105 NEW BRUNSWICK EXPERIMENT STATION COOP 105 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 105 ELIZABETH COOP 105 JERSEY CITY COOP 105 LITTLE FALLS COOP 105 PATERSON COOP 105 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 105 Newark Area ThreadEx 104 LAMBERTVILLE RIVER COOP 104 BRIDGETON 1 NE COOP 104 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 104 LAMBERTVILLE COOP 104 PHILLIPSBURG COOP 104 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 104 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 103 LAYTON 3 NW COOP 103 DOVER COOP 102 BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST COOP 102 SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 102 CANOE BROOK COOP 102 RIDGEFIELD COOP 102 -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
2009 was the last summer at a warm spot like Newark which averaged under 74°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Coolest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1940 71.0 0 2 1946 71.7 0 3 1945 72.4 0 4 1941 72.5 0 5 1936 72.7 0 6 1950 72.8 0 - 1935 72.8 0 - 1933 72.8 0 - 1932 72.8 0 7 1982 72.9 0 - 1956 72.9 0 - 1947 72.9 0 - 1942 72.9 0 8 1962 73.0 0 - 1958 73.0 0 - 1934 73.0 0 9 2000 73.1 0 10 1967 73.2 0 - 1954 73.2 0 - 1951 73.2 0 - 1931 73.2 0 11 2009 73.5 0 12 1996 73.6 0 - 1948 73.6 0 13 1985 73.7 0 - 1964 73.7 0 14 1997 73.8 0 15 2004 73.9 0 - 1965 73.9 0 - 1938 73.9 0 -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
NJ was significantly warmer in 2014 than NYC and Long Island. Some spots approached 30 days reaching 90°. Plus we had 100° heat in June 2017 and numerous spots with 20+ days reaching 90. Data for January 1, 2014 through December 31, 2014 Days With 90° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 29 POTTERSVILLE 2 NNW COOP 28 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 27 WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 26 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 23 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 19 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 17 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 17 HARRISON COOP 16 Newark Area ThreadEx 15 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 15 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 15 Monthly Data for June 2017 for Upton NY NWS CWA Monthly High Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 98 NJ HARRISON COOP 98 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 98 Data for January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2017 Days with 90° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 33 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 26 CANOE BROOK COOP 25 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 24 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 24 HARRISON COOP 23 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 22 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 22 Newark Area ThreadEx 22 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 22 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 20 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 20 -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah, 2004 was the last time Lake Placid reached 35° in August. The 2020s is the first decade so far with no August lows in the 30s there. You knew 76-77 was going to be a historic winter for cold when they made it down to 27° in August 76°. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I remember all the tropical systems that summer and the great waves. It was the last time we had a record breaking snowy winter with under 10 days reaching 90° at the warmest spots like EWR. 2004 was also impressive with that cool summer following the great snows and the record cold in January. 2009 was the last time with under 15 days reaching 90° and an above average snowy season and near 0° in January. The there was the amazing Arctic outbreak in January 1985 and that cool summer. Also 1982 with the cool summer following the greatest April blizzard in over 100 years. We can add 1956 to the list for the great snowstorms in March. If you notice we used to get these very cool summers right around the ones which were the warmest in those eras, Such as 1956 after the 1955 summer. And 1967 following the summer of 1966. Then the 1982 summer right before the 1983 heat. Plus 1996 after the 1993 to 1995 summers with the heat index near 130°. We also had the cooler 2004 summer between the warmth in 2002 and 2005. Then our warmest summer on record in 2010 after the cool 2009 summer. So all we get these days is the summer heat like 2022 with nearly 50 days reaching 90 and an average summer like in 2023 with closer to 30 days. But not another cool one like in 2009. So we lost a whole category of cool summers since the big step up in summer temperatures in 2010. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Lowest Number of 90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1967 7 0 2 1996 9 0 3 1985 11 0 4 1982 12 0 - 1975 12 0 - 1946 12 0 5 2004 13 0 6 2009 14 0 - 1962 14 0 - 1956 14 0 - 1935 14 0 -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The summer of 1996 was actually one of my favorites. All the cooler rainy days kept the beaches quiet. Since even a cool summer is plenty warm for the beach and swimming. Plus it came after the best winter I ever experienced. Gone are the days when nearly the whole area gets under 10 days a year reaching 90°. Data for January 1, 1996 through December 31, 1996 days reaching 90° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 13 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 11 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 10 NJ CRANFORD COOP 9 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 9 NJ HARRISON COOP 8 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 8 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 6 NY MINEOLA COOP 6 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 5 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 5 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 5 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 5 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 5 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 4 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 4 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 4 NY WEST POINT COOP 4 NY OCEANSIDE COOP 4 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 4 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 4 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 4 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 3 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3 NJ WAYNE COOP 3 NY SUFFERN COOP 3 NY WEST NYACK COOP 3 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 3 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 2 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 2 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 2 CT DANBURY COOP 2 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 2 NY SEA CLIFF COOP 2 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 2 CT COCKAPONSET RANGER STA COOP 2 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 2 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 2 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 2 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 1 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 1 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 1 -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Harrison and Newark are both in the westerly downslope zone today. Harrison NJ 2025-07-09 15:16 APRSWXNET-CWOP 94