bluewave

Hopefully, we can get back to some semblance of a benchmark storm track in the coming years. It’s hard to believe that January 2022 was our last big snowstorm month. I don’t mind a warm winter as long as we get some decent events. This was the scene from my old hometown back in January 2022. Haven’t been back there in a few years but hear from some friends that it’s doing pretty well.

Some of the new research suggests that the downturn in the 1970s was mostly a result of increased sulfur emissions. So that the record SSTs in the Atlantic and other basins in recent years have gone against past cycles. As we have never seen SSTs as high in the Atlantic as the last few years. New shipping fuel emissions have cleaned up the air over the Atlantic and other basins. Plus the rapid warming of the WPAC east of Japan is a first for a -PDO. So with the rapid growth of marine heatwaves we may not be able to count on any type of sustained downturn like we did in the past. But it will be interesting to see what happens in the future as places like Florida may become uninsurable for anything but new construction which is up to code. The older inventory will increasingly become too expensive to insure. So we could be one or two big hurricane seasons away from even further difficulty for that market.

The excess salt runoff into the local waterways has been a big issue in recent years with the increased road salting. I have actually been on the roads where trucks were leaving a salty dust haze behind them. The local car wash business has been booming up here. https://planetforward.org/story/road-salt-contaminates-water/

Actually feels pretty good out there today. Getting some melt of the leftover snowpack. As usual, Central NJ is the warmest with some spots already into the mid 50s.

You are ahead of the game in Florida if you are in new hurricane code construction away from the immediate shoreline. Those folks with all the hurricane code roofs and windows can still get insurance but it has been going up even for them. Especially if you are in one of the zones which have missed the brunt of this recent active hurricane period. Part of the problem with the increasing weather extremes as the climate warms is that the population has moved into the highest risk areas. In the past like from the 20s to 50s, there really wasn’t as much population in harms way during that very active hurricane period. But the population has grown rapidly during recent decades. One of the biggest issues related to development is that the shoreline communities have been sinking due to subsidence and ground water pumping. This is on top of the fast sea level rise in places like South Florida since the 1990s. So these factors lead to that terrible collapse in Surfside several years ago. This had lead to condo assessment crisis on all condos over 30 years old. So many people have been forced to sell since the fees to bring the buildings up to code for the rising seas and sinking land near the shore are too high. So new construction away from the water is the best bet if you want to move to Florida now. Since the insurance companies will insure you due to new construction being up to code. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/florida-condo-owners-face-unretiring-112000881.html Yet another torrid tale has emerged of Florida homeowners being hit with eye-watering special assessment fees as building managers race to be in compliance with a new state law. This time, it’s the residents of SurfSide Club South in Ormond Beach crying foul after they were billed over $100,000 per condo owner. Per the new Florida law, all three-story-plus condo buildings and at least 30 years old must undergo a mandatory engineering assessment before Dec. 31, 2024. Condo associations must also shore up repair funding reserves. This law was introduced after the Surfside tragedy in 2021, in which 98 lives were lost when a 12-story condo collapsed. While few condo owners would argue against the need to make their buildings structurally sound, many at Surfside Club South are at a loss as to where they’ll find the money to fulfill these new obligations. “I’m a retired teacher, so we don’t have hundreds of thousands set aside somewhere that we can contribute,” resident Janet Stone told WKMG News 6 on June 26. “It put me in a position where I needed to return to work.” Many other condo owners are suffering a similar fate and feeling blindsided by the mega bills landing on their doorsteps. Here’s what’s going on. Addressing critical building issues After the Surfside incident, Senate Bill 4-D was rushed into law to require older condo buildings to perform inspections, address critical issues and build up their reserve funds for future repairs. The law, which applies to about two-thirds of condos in the Sunshine State, caught some condo associations off-guard. Many did not have adequate funds in their reserves to pay for the required engineering assessments and potential repairs — and as a result, that cost was passed on to the individual unit owners. But it doesn’t stop there. The condo associations are also required to beef up their reserves to meet their future maintenance needs, which is adding to condo owners’ fees — money they must pay on top of their mortgages, property taxes and home insurance — three other living costs that have climbed in recent years. Parks Huffstetler, a snowbird who bought a condo unit at SurfSide Club South in late 2021, told News 6 he had no idea about the upcoming assessment fees — and he certainly hadn’t budgeted for a six-figure bill. “It’s over $100,000 per owner,” Huffstetler said. “The hope is, once we get the restoration part done, then the units will be worth more and I can sell.” No option but to sell Some condo owners facing whopping special assessment fees may have no option but to sell their unit — especially retireeson fixed incomes, or younger Americans who used all their savings to buy their first home. If you can’t pay a special assessment fee, there may be consequences, depending on your contract with the condo association. This may include a fine or late fee — only adding to your financial burden. And in the most severe cases, they may elect to place a lien on your home or even foreclose on your property. Before letting things spiral out of control, you may want to negotiate with your association or set up a regular payment plan to reduce the immediate burden. It’s also worth speaking out if you have questions about your responsibility to pay or how the community is managing its funds because, as the situation in Florida has revealed, there are many struggling condo owners in the same boat. You may want to seek out legal advice or approach advocacy groups if you need help resolving issues with a condo association.

it’s not supposed to work or be sustainable on a larger scale over the long term since our system is only focused on the next quarter. But the climate system doesn’t care about our fragile human systems. It’s going to enforce the laws of physics and everyone is just going to have to do the best they can. It’s possible for people to find niches where they can do well. But there probably are going to be mass migrations in the coming decades to more hospitable areas. So if you play your cards right, then you can be positioned to do very well for yourself if you take the challenges into account. But there will inevitably be regions that probably won’t be really viable to sustain what we consider a modern society. So ultimately it could turn into a story of hope of people finding happy lives more in balance with nature. So I don’t think it’s going to be all doom and gloom. Since there will always be communities of like minded people who will find a way to turn lemons into lemonade.

Once the TPV consolidates in mid-March, we could see our first 70° readings by St Patrick’s Day.

Yeah, after the first week of March both the extended EPS and GEFS finally have a more durable warm up. But it looks like fits and starts before then. This colder pattern since January 1st is going to take time to shift. But as in the past when we had these cooler runs, the warm ups that followed were even more impressive than the cooler weather we experienced.

Looks like a back and forth pattern into early March before we eventually shift into fulll-time spring mode by mid-March. Feb 24 to Mar 3 Mar 3 to 10 Mar 10 to 17

Since the governments of the world can’t get their acts together, it’s going to come down to the insurance and mortgage companies to enforce climate policies on the general public. Instead of taking a coordinated global approach, this will be done in an uncoordinated piecemeal way. So the governments are essentially punting the ball to the private sector and telling them just to do whatever you have to in order to stay solvent in the face of increasing extreme weather events. https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/fed-chair-warns-high-risk-185451042.html Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has warned that mortgages will be difficult—if not impossible—to secure in some high-risk areas in the future. As storms and wildfires pummel certain areas of the country, causing insurance rates to skyrocket, particularly in Florida and California, the chairman foresees a day when many areas will have turned into mortgage deserts. “Both banks and insurance companies are pulling out of coastal areas or areas where there are a lot of fires,” he said at Tuesday’s congressional hearing What that is going to mean is that if you fast-forward 10 or 15 years, there are going to be regions of the country where you can’t get a mortgage,” he told the banking committee. The dystopian vision of large swaths of the country where mortgages are simply not available was one conjured up when Democratic Sen. Tina Smith of Minnesota asked about insurers that have pulled out of high-risk areas such as California and Florida, and what that will mean for people trying to get mortgages In the question and answer portion of the hearing, Smith said her constituents are struggling with a 40% increase in insurance rates in the past seven years, which she attributes to climate change and extreme weather events. According to climate risk analysis firm First Street, between now and 2055, insurance premiums are projected to skyrocket in many areas, including in Miami, jumping 322% from current levels, followed by Jacksonville, FL (226%), Tampa, FL (213%), New Orleans (196%), and Sacramento, CA (137%). She went on to call attention to a recent analysis by First Street, which warned that $1.4 trillion will be shaved off the value of U.S. real estate within the next years due to this domino effect “What is going to happen when insurance becomes unaffordable or—in some parts of the country— literally unavailable?” she asked the chairman. “What impact will that have on the mortgage markets?” Powell admitted that banks would likely make mortgages unavailable in parts of the country, and even pull up stakes entirely, leaving behind mortgage and bank deserts. “The risk is that [mortgages and banks] just won’t be there. People won’t be able to get them. That is really the issue,” he said. There won’t be ATMs, the banks won’t have branches,” he went on. “That’s a possibility coming up down the road. The banks won’t stay there and keep making loans in the face of disaster. The insurance companies won’t continue writing policies. They can cancel those policies every year.” Who pays the price? As for the onus of the costs of a disaster befalling a property, “that will fall on homeowners and residents, but also state and local governments,” Powell told the committee. “You see that happening now,” he said. “States are stepping in where private insurance is going away. They want those areas to remain prosperous. It certainly will have significant economic consequences.”

I think it was more of an early indicator of the storm tracks we were dealing with usually emerges early on during La Ninas.

At least we had an early heads up in December with many stations going under 4” which has been a reliable indicator of below normal La Niña seasonal snowfall.

Stop making stuff up. If you are so bothered by someone pointing out that this was an average temperature winter prior to the last 10 years than you are just being overly sensitive. You are the only one that has been complaining in this thread and clogging it up with OT posts.

This is why I keep it strictly to the numbers and statistics and provide perspectives. The esrl site that I post data from allows you to set the climate normals reference period. NASA only uses the 1951-1980 reference period. it’s also why I like to rely on the rankings more since they are fixed. In the rankings below you can see how a station like ISP falls right in the middle of the pack of all the winters. The 33.0° average temperature is a -1.0 in 1991-2020 climate normals with 29 winters being colder and 33 warmer. 33.0° was an average winter as recently as 1981-2010 climate normals and would finish at 0.0°. So I agree with Rjay that it’s an accomplishment of sorts just to be able to get one winter that would be considered average in the past. But it wouldn’t be considered cold compared to winters as recently as 14-15. If there is any disappointment it’s in regard to the continuing below average snowfall which has been a common theme since 18-19 with only a few exceptions like 20-21 and January 22 further east on Long Island. But it was still impressive that we could extend so many small snowstorms into over 20 days of 1 inch snow cover. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1976-1977 27.0 0 2 1977-1978 27.1 0 3 1967-1968 27.4 0 4 1969-1970 29.2 0 5 2002-2003 29.3 0 6 1993-1994 29.4 0 7 1968-1969 29.8 0 8 2014-2015 30.0 0 - 1963-1964 30.0 2 9 1978-1979 30.1 0 10 2010-2011 30.4 0 - 1964-1965 30.4 0 11 2003-2004 30.7 0 - 2000-2001 30.7 0 - 1966-1967 30.7 0 12 1985-1986 31.3 0 13 1995-1996 31.4 0 14 2013-2014 31.5 0 - 1970-1971 31.5 0 15 1980-1981 31.7 0 16 2004-2005 31.9 0 - 1987-1988 31.9 0 17 2009-2010 32.1 0 18 1981-1982 32.3 0 - 1965-1966 32.3 0 19 2008-2009 32.4 0 - 1986-1987 32.4 0 - 1975-1976 32.4 0 20 1989-1990 32.9 0 21 2024-2025 33.0 5 - 1992-1993 33.0 0 - 1983-1984 33.0 0 22 1988-1989 33.1 0 23 1984-1985 33.4 0 24 1979-1980 33.6 0 25 1973-1974 33.8 0 26 1999-2000 33.9 0 27 2020-2021 34.1 0 28 2017-2018 34.3 0 - 2007-2008 34.3 0 29 2005-2006 34.4 0 30 2018-2019 34.5 0 31 1991-1992 34.6 0 32 2006-2007 34.7 0 33 1974-1975 34.8 0 - 1972-1973 34.8 0 34 1971-1972 35.0 0 35 2021-2022 35.1 0 36 2012-2013 35.2 0 37 1996-1997 35.5 0 38 1982-1983 35.6 0 39 1990-1991 36.2 0 40 1998-1999 36.5 0 41 1994-1995 36.8 0 42 2016-2017 36.9 0 43 2019-2020 37.4 0 44 2023-2024 37.8 0 45 2011-2012 38.3 0 46 1997-1998 38.5 0 47 2001-2002 38.6 0 48 2022-2023 38.7 0 49 2015-2016 39.1

Weather records and statistics are an integral part of the online weather and climate community. So maybe I was incorrect to give you the benefit of the doubt in my comment about how quickly people normalize the warmer weather. Sounds more like you are in favor of censoring ideas which in some way don’t match your worldview.

Yeah, it’s been a while not getting a 60° day relative to the last several winters. This was the first time since 2021 with no over 52° days in NYC between 1-1 and 2-23. It’s tough to go over 60° with -5 AO patterns like we had back in 2021 also. If we didn’t get that -AO this month we would have probably had 2 or 3 days reaching 60° already this month.

We had 2 days reach 60° back in December.

That’s what makes this forum great. We can all come on and discuss what type of weather we like. I will have to side with Rjay on this one. Would rather have a few record snowstorms and warmth like 15-16 and 16-17 rather than near average historical temperatures and well below normal snowfall. Even if we had extended snowcover. Obviously a 95-96 package with great snowstorms, extended cold, and extended snowcover would be optimal but is harder to come by these days.

The only time since 2000 was in 2004. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending number of 60° days or warmer 2024-2025 2 2023-2024 6 0 2022-2023 7 0 2021-2022 8 0 2020-2021 3 0 2019-2020 4 0 2018-2019 4 0 2017-2018 9 0 2016-2017 9 0 2015-2016 16 0 2014-2015 2 0 2013-2014 5 0 2012-2013 3 0 2011-2012 5 0 2010-2011 4 0 2009-2010 1 0 2008-2009 5 0 2007-2008 6 0 2006-2007 3 0 2005-2006 5 0 2004-2005 2 0 2003-2004 0 0

I think the most impressive feat we had this winter was over 20 days with an inch of snow on the ground in NYC without a 4” snowstorm and only 12.9” of snow. Just an enough small snowfall events spaced out enough to keep a wintry look to the ground for over 20 days. And also no significant cold as NYC only dropped to 10°. Very mid range temperatures with fewer days over 60°and no days under 10°.

Because I have a deep respect for this audience and they have wealth of knowledge that makes them able to fully understand the topic being discussed. You are making gross oversimplifications of what I have said that leads me to believe you have another motive. But this is something that you are going to have to deal with on your own.

I was discussing this potential last October in the La Niña thread so it wasn’t that much of a surprise to me. But also noted that there were differences to what happened in winters like this in the past. This turned to be the case with some of the lowest snowfall on record this winter with similar circumstances in the past.

This was close to an average winter for temperatures based on the climate we had before 2010. So pointing this out isn’t factually incorrect. If you think this was a cold winter based on the 1950s to 1980s climate era then you probably didn’t have to wait out on the bus stop for school in that era during some of those epic winters for cold. The reason I brought up age is that I have seen what actual cold winters were like. And can understand how the younger generation could see this as being a cold winter. I have no problem with this back and forth. AGW is more a political term and I seldom discuss politics since it’s such a polarizing feature in the modern global society. So we can substitute a more neutral term like warming climate. Since thermometers have no political affiliations. So by stating the obvious that we have had over 50 top 10 warmest months and only 1 top 10 coldest since 2010 is more about awareness. The key to awareness of any topic is accurately measuring it and then making comparisons to earlier measurements. So it’s all about perspectives and not politics. My motivation is all about empowering people with the data so they can make informed decisions in their own life. But perspectives are key in making these decisions. Plus we are living though historic times with regard to the climate and not pointing this out wouldn’t make sense.

For the simple reason that moving 30 year temperature averages were never designed to be used in rapidly warming climate. It would be more correct to set our temperature departures to the 1951-1980 climate normals like NASA and other agencies do for global temperatures. Since the constantly updating baseline every 10 years lowers the bar for what is considered cold. Don’t you want it to be considered cold by what the actual temperature is rather than an artificially lower standard? Imagine if Major League Baseball wanted more home runs so they decided to move the fences in much closer to home plate. So it was easier to hit more home runs. This is what you are doing by making it easier to get a cold departure. When we had an actual cold winter month like February 2015 it was cold by any 30 year average in the last 100 years. So it wasn’t an artificial cold month like we have been seeing in recent times. Most people aren’t a fan of lowering standards to achieve a goal.

We don’t need anymore threads than we have. The general monthly thread contains all the discussions about temperatures, patterns, and general precipitation amounts. Then the storm threads for individual storm information like what each model is showing for a given storm system. You can’t discuss temperatures or precipitation without putting into historical context. It’s almost as if you are trying to sweep things under the rug because you don’t like the outcome.