bluewave

Yeah, 50 days with over 1” OTG was a much different pattern compared to recent years. Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending days with 1” or more OTG 2025-04-30 9 2024-04-30 16 2023-04-30 0 2022-04-30 12 2021-04-30 37 2020-04-30 4 2019-04-30 11 2018-04-30 28 2017-04-30 18 2016-04-30 18 2015-04-30 53 2014-04-30 62 2013-04-30 13 2012-04-30 6 2011-04-30 57

This January drier period looks more transient compared to the extended dry period from late August into late November.

We have been doing very well east of NYC since the fall dry pattern ended back in late November with 10.00”+ in many areas. Data for November 20, 2024 through January 13, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 11.42 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.30 NY NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 11.19 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 11.15 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 11.13 NY ST. JAMES COOP 10.79 NY CENTERPORT COOP 10.77 NY CENTERPORT 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 10.73 CT PAWCATUCK 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.73 CT EAST LYME 0.6 N CoCoRaHS 10.73 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 10.71 CT PAWCATUCK 0.8 SE CoCoRaHS 10.67 CT STONINGTON 1.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.66 CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.63 CT UNCASVILLE-OXOBOXO VALLEY 1.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.63 NY SELDEN 1.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.48 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 10.42 NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.41 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 10.29 NY CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 10.28 NY MANORVILLE 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.26 NY ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.23 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 10.22 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.22 CT MYSTIC 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 10.22 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.15 NY ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 10.14 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 10.14 CT NORWICH 5.4 SE CoCoRaHS 10.13 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.03 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 10.03 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 10.03 NY FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 9.97 CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 9.96 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 9.88 CT GUILFORD COOP 9.88 NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 9.87 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 9.87 CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.86 NY REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 9.85 NY SEAFORD 0.4 SE CoCoRaHS 9.79 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.79 CT STONINGTON 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.73 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.72 NY RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 9.72 CT DANBURY COOP 9.72 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 9.71 CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 9.70 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 9.69 CT NEW LONDON 1.0 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.68 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.67 CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 9.62 NY RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.60 NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.55 NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.54 CT MOODUS 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 9.54 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 9.51 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 9.49 CT WATERFORD 1.1 E CoCoRaHS 9.47 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 9.43 NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.41 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.39 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 9.39 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 9.37 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.35 CT OLD LYME 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.27 CT RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.25 CT STAMFORD 1.0 S CoCoRaHS 9.25 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 9.24 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.22 CT MADISON CENTER 1.3 N CoCoRaHS 9.21 CT MYSTIC 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 9.21 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.18 CT NEW CANAAN 3.8 N CoCoRaHS 9.16 CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 9.16 CT COLCHESTER 5.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.15 CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.09 NY JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 9.07 CT NIANTIC 1.1 SW CoCoRaHS 9.07 NJ HARRISON COOP 9.02 NY SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.01 CT OLD LYME 3.4 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.01

Maybe the PCC has finally shifted. The record warming started before the El Niño became established in Nino 3.4 during 2023 with that unusually strong WWB closer to Nino 1+2 and record warming there for so early in an El Niño event. While Nino 3.4 has finally been declared to be in La Niña, Nino 1+2 is still having warmer readings with unusual WWB activity there for a La Niña fall into winter. But this new paper may only be scratching the surface in terms of our understanding of how the Pacific can modulate warming on a global scale. So perhaps we need to focus on the unusual events which continue near Nino 1+2 since the late winter back in 2023. https://communities.springernature.com/posts/an-emerging-pacific-climate-change-pattern it might reverse and, even if this meant drought alleviation in the southwest and East Africa, would herald a phase of strong global warming. Our new research supports the first possibility. We identified an emerging climate change signal in the tropical Pacific that we call the Pacific Climate Change (PCC) pattern. This is clearly distinguishable from the decadal variability of the IPO. While the IPO is associated with a meridionally broad, wedge-shaped sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, the PCC, which has emerged since the mid-1950s, features a narrow band of cooling along the equator with warming elsewhere. The PCC emerges over time while the IPO oscillates back and forth as expected if the PCC is a signal of climate change and the IPO is natural variability. Both the PCC and IPO involve changes in thermocline depth and subsurface temperature in the upwelling regions of the central to eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite this similarity we show, using ocean data and a simple wind-driven ocean model, that the PCC’s atmosphere-ocean dynamics are fundamentally different from those of the IPO.

Looks like January 20 to 27 could be our coldest week of the winter so far. Then we see the La Niña seasonal progression on all the guidance. So the usual La Niña warm up heading into February. EPS Jan 20 to 27 Jan 27 to Feb 3

Those winds were crossing the warmer Great Lakes. Plus Canada still hasn’t cooled off yet from all the record warmth in recent years. This has lead to the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay. It looks like Canada is finally forecast to start getting colder next weekend.

They are taking longer than normal to cool down due to recent record warmth and keeping the minimums warmer so far this month in the Northeast.

Areas just to the south are colder so far this month since the flow isn’t coming directly off the warmer Great Lakes.

The lack of good radiational cooling so far this month is keeping the outlying areas departures warmer than the urban areas. POU…+1.6 HPN…+0.1 ISP…..+0.1 JFK…+0.6 BDR….0.0 SMQ…+0.2 EWR…-0.6 LGA….-2.3 NYC….-2.6 New Brunswick…+0.2

Could be the first single digits of the season for NYC as Canada finally loads up with Arctic air.

New Brunswick is +0.2 for January so far with the warmer minimums and cooler maximums. Climatological Data for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - January 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 425 293 - - 354 0 0.84 1.5 - Average 38.6 26.6 32.6 0.2 - - - - 0.3 Normal 40.8 24.0 32.4 - 359 0 1.35 2.5 2025-01-01 56 39 47.5 14.3 17 0 0.24 0.0 0 2025-01-02 49 35 42.0 9.0 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-03 44 30 37.0 4.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-04 38 28 33.0 0.3 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-05 34 25 29.5 -3.0 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-06 34 26 30.0 -2.4 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-07 30 18 24.0 -8.2 41 0 0.10 1.0 1 2025-01-08 34 23 28.5 -3.6 36 0 0.00 0.0 1 2025-01-09 31 20 25.5 -6.5 39 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-10 35 23 29.0 -2.8 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-11 40 26 33.0 1.3 32 0 0.50 0.5 1 2025-01-12 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-13 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-14 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-15 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-16 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-17 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-18 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-19 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-20 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-21 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-22 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-23 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-24 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-25 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-26 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-27 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-28 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-29 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-30 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-31 M M M M M M M M M

There were two La Niña winters in 1970s and 1980s which had that type of La Niña seasonal progression. 75-76 and 83-84 had a colder winter departure through January 31st. But the much warmer February departure shifted the whole winter above average for the colder climate normals of that era. NYC 83-84 Dec…-1.0 Jan…-1.9 Feb…+7.2 NYC 75-76 Dec…+0.4 Jan….-4.8 Feb….+6.5

How cold we get during the January 20th to 27th window will probably determine whether we see our first colder than average winter in the last 10 years. Since we want to be able to build up a large enough colder departure that’s able withstand the typical warmer La Niña February climatology. Several La Niña winters which were colder through January shifted warmer based on February. Plus it will be interesting to see if the much warmer 91-20 climatology plays a role. Since it’s technically possible to get a colder winter based on 91-20 but not 81-10 or 71-00 normals.

My point is that it will require a shift to BM KU snowstorm tracks again from now through 2029 for NYC to finish the 2020s with over 20” of snowfall. The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet since 2018-2019 plus the much warmer winters over this period have combined to the lower the NYC average to 14.2” so far. In a rapidly warming climate there are fewer ways for NYC to reach average to above average seasonal snowfall into the 20s range. KU benchmark snowstorms were the main contributor to the normal to above average seasons in NYC since 1994. Prior to 1994 NYC had a wider variety of was to achieve normal to above normal snowfall. There were many fewer KU events from the 50s through early 90s. The winters were cold enough back then to make it closer to average with a number of small to moderate events. But with the warming climate, the temperatures have become too marginal at times for smaller to moderate events to get us closer to seasonal averages with so many changeovers to rain. So the 60s through early 90s were cold enough to not have to exclusively rely on high end KU BM snowstorms in order to have a snowfall season closer to average. 2010-2018 was an extreme outlier in the modern climate record for NESIS KU snowstorms. So the higher snowfall totals from bigger events masked the long term warming trend. Plus NYC hasn’t had a winter near 32° average since 14-15. These very cold winters occurred at regular intervals up through that winter going back to the 60s. So many of the lower 5 year periods you mentioned could count on these very cold intervals to help boost the snowfall back up after slow stretches. So It’s less likely in a warming climate that NYC will have the same number of colder winters near 32° that they had in previous decades. Plus without that cold the burden for average to above average snowfall will fall almost exclusively on BM KU snowstorms. But in order to get back to that we need to see a relaxation of the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet which has limited benchmark storm tracks since 18-19. While it’s possible that this faster Pacific Jet pattern may diminish in the coming years, we still may not get back to the volume of KU events enjoyed from 2010 to 2018. All we can say for sure is that this Pacific Jet regime has coincided with an unprecedented increase in Pacific Basin marine heatwaves. Whether these continuing marine heatwaves result in this jet pattern continuing for the remainder of the 2020s also remains to be seen.

Yeah, only a small cold departure so far this winter against the very warm new 91-20 normals. The very strong winds have made it feel much colder. Plus it was so warm the last few winters that this step down feels much colder than it actually has been.

We had a much narrower distribution range of snowfall back in that era. So many years closer to something in the middle. ISP has probably seen the most extreme distribution or variance shift. From 1963 to 1993 there were 15 seasons clustered in the 18-32” range. Since 1994 only 1 season in that mid range. All the other seasons were dominated by very high and very low years since then. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.4 5.3 10.2 9.9 5.5 0.7 32.0 2023-2024 0.0 T T 3.1 7.8 0.0 0.0 10.9 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 T 3.0 1.6 0.0 5.0 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0 2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9 2011-2012 0.3 0.0 T 3.8 0.6 T 0.0 4.7 2010-2011 0.0 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 55.3 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 53.8 2008-2009 0.0 T 10.4 8.9 3.3 13.6 T 36.2 2007-2008 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.8 7.3 T 0.0 10.7 2006-2007 0.0 T 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.8 T 9.0 2005-2006 0.0 0.5 7.6 4.7 19.9 3.2 0.1 36.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 7.0 21.5 17.0 13.3 0.0 58.8 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 15.5 19.1 1.1 5.7 0.0 41.4 2002-2003 0.0 1.0 16.0 2.6 26.3 3.7 5.0 54.6 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 T T 0.0 3.7 2000-2001 T 0.0 10.8 9.2 8.6 10.3 T 38.9 1999-2000 0.0 T 0.4 5.8 2.6 0.2 T 9.0 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.5 2.8 9.1 T 19.4 1997-1998 0.0 T 1.0 T T 1.6 T 2.6 1996-1997 0.0 T 1.2 3.3 2.2 3.7 2.0 12.4 1995-1996 0.0 3.0 13.3 20.2 19.0 12.0 9.6 77.1 1994-1995 0.0 T T T 5.1 T 0.0 5.1 1993-1994 0.0 T 3.3 8.8 20.0 5.0 0.0 37.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T 0.6 3.4 8.1 8.6 4.3 0.8 25.8 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.3 10.9 13.3 0.0 28.6 1991-1992 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.3 1.5 7.6 T 13.4 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 4.0 3.6 4.3 1.9 0.0 13.8 1989-1990 0.0 7.6 0.2 2.0 2.0 4.2 3.0 19.0 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 10.4 4.4 1.2 3.0 T 19.0 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 4.2 10.7 0.1 3.4 0.0 19.5 1986-1987 0.0 T 3.4 8.8 8.6 1.7 0.0 22.5 1985-1986 0.0 T 2.1 2.6 10.4 0.1 T 15.2 1984-1985 0.0 T 4.7 13.5 8.7 T T 26.9 1983-1984 0.0 T 2.6 11.9 T 13.0 0.0 27.5 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.5 26.1 T 1.1 31.9 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 1.0 18.1 0.3 T 16.0 35.4 1980-1981 0.0 T 0.5 13.2 T 7.1 0.0 20.8 1979-1980 T 0.0 1.5 4.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 9.0 1978-1979 0.0 4.0 T 6.9 17.2 T T 28.1 1977-1978 0.0 0.8 0.2 27.7 28.9 10.4 T 68.0 1976-1977 0.0 T 6.2 11.2 6.6 4.0 0.0 28.0 1975-1976 0.0 T 11.0 7.8 7.5 3.9 0.0 30.2 1974-1975 0.0 0.5 T 1.8 11.0 1.2 T 14.5 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 T 9.0 17.0 8.0 T 34.0 1972-1973 T 0.0 T 1.5 3.0 T T 4.5 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.1 12.5 1.0 T 15.6 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.3 2.0 1.0 2.5 18.9 1969-1970 0.0 T 12.0 7.0 7.0 1.0 T 27.0 1968-1969 0.0 T 3.0 T 19.5 11.0 0.0 33.5 1967-1968 0.0 2.5 5.0 9.1 3.0 3.0 0.0 22.6 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 8.6 1.0 19.5 21.7 T 50.8 1965-1966 0.0 0.0 T 12.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 15.7 1964-1965 0.0 0.0 2.0 24.6 7.4 4.5 1.0 39.5 1963-1964 0.0 T 11.0 11.7 16.0 1.0 0.0 39.7

That’s the point. Even in the 1970s and 1980s the NYC decadal average snowfall got close to or above 20”. The 19-20 to 23-24 new 2020s average so far in NYC is only 14.2”. So NYC will need a big increase the remainder of this season through 2029 to avoid the least snowiest decade on record. Let’s hope the BM KU storm track comes to life in a very big way. Since we don’t have a cold enough climate anymore to get near and into the 20s for seasonal snowfall with a bunch of small to moderate events like numerous years prior to the 1990s. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 T 2.6 4.4 7.1 0.1 T 14.2 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T 0.1 2.3 7.9 5.4 3.0 1.0 19.7 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 2.6 13.9 1.5 T 0.0 19.1 1986-1987 0.0 T 0.6 13.6 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.1 1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0 1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 8.4 10.0 0.2 T 24.1 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.9 21.5 T 0.8 27.2 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.8 0.4 0.7 9.6 24.6 1980-1981 0.0 T 2.8 8.0 T 8.6 0.0 19.4 1979-1980 T 0.0 3.5 2.0 2.7 4.6 T 12.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T 0.3 2.0 8.0 9.9 2.3 0.1 22.5 1978-1979 0.0 2.2 0.5 6.6 20.1 T T 29.4 1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7 1976-1977 0.0 T 5.1 13.0 5.8 0.6 T 24.5 1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3 1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5 1972-1973 T T T 1.8 0.8 0.2 T 2.8 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5 1969-1970 0.0 T 6.8 8.4 6.4 4.0 T 25.6

JFK is off to the slowest snowfall start of any decade going back to the 60s. The first 5 seasons of the 2020s through last year was only 15.0”. The previous slowest start was the 70s at only 15.6”. So JFK will need a big increase in KU events ASAP for through 28-29 to avoid a new lowest snowfall decade. Remember, the last 5 seasons of the 1970s averaged 25.9” to get back to 20.8” on the decade. So JFK will need a big finish to the 2020s to get above 20”. JFK seasonal snowfall 2020s so far from 19-20 to 20-24….15.0” 2010s…32.3” 2000s…25.1” 1990s…20.8” 1980s…20.4” 1970s…20.8” 1960s…30.4”

I understand that. But if you leave out the anomalous 2010s the 1950 to 2009 average was 24.6. So we can either use 25” or 26” and still see a tighter clustering around that midpoint from the 50s into early 90s on a seasonal basis.

I would say it’s been a piece of the puzzle with how warm that region has been so far this winter.

I was looking at the longer term snowfall distribution from 1951 to 2020. From the 1950s into the early 1990s we had a high number of years within 5” of that 25” average. With fewer years much higher and much lower. But starting in 1994 it’s fewer years in the median of the distribution range and more years skewed much higher or much lower. So we went from a more compressed distribution near the center to one defined more by extremes. 1951-1980…24.8” 1961-1990…23.9” 1971-2000…21.9” 1981-2010….25.3” 1991-2020…29.8” avg…25.1”

The delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay, clouds, lower pressures, stronger winds, and warmer lakes with less ice have kept the minimum temperature departures significantly higher than the maxes this month so far in the Northeast.

I have 1” here just to the east of KHVN.

The significance is that March 2020 to 2024 was the first 5 year period with under 1” in NYC. So it has been tough to count on March for a big event this decade. Sure it’s possible we’ll eventually see some bigger Marches. But you probably want to build up a big enough snowfall surplus before March in case we see another March with well below average snow. Since relying on a big March to get near 25” is probably less likely without a snowy enough season before we get to March. The general topic of climate shifts is an interesting one. Since climate shifts usually happen without notice and only become obvious after a period of time has past. The major snowfall climate shift in NYC to ISP occurred after 1993. So we have had over 30 years of observations to confirm. NYC and ISP snowfall climatology has shifted to an all or nothing pattern over the last 30 years. Only 3 seasons in NYC have been close to the long term average of 25”. All the other seasons have experienced a larger deviation of plus or minus snowfall departures from this long term median. The previous 30 year period from the early 60s to early 90s was much colder and stable. So 12 seasons finished within about 5” inches of the 25” average. Many fewer seasons with a larger deviation above or below this average. We had a larger number of ways to get to a near average season. Since there were several seasons getting close to 25” with a bunch of smaller to moderate events. The other thing which has occurred is that a KU snowstorm has become a prerequisite for seasonal average snowfall from around NYC to ISP. In the much colder era we could get to average seasonal snowfall at times without the aid of a larger regional KU event dumping 12”+ maxes within about a 50 to 75 mile radius of NYC. 2010 to 2018 experienced the largest concentration of NESIS snowstorms in the modern climate record. So since the early 90s we have experienced fewer ways to get an average snowfall season in the 20s from NYC to ISP. And more ways to get well above or well below average snowfall. The 2020s average in NYC so far is only 14.2” through the halfway mark so far through 5 full seasons. This suggests that the only way NYC will finish this decade above 20” is for a significant increase in KU events from this winter into the following 4 remaining. If we continue with the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks pattern which has been in effect since December 2018, then this will be the least snowiest decade in NYC and surrounding areas history. So we need an increase in benchmark KU storm tracks as soon as possible in order to get back to average to above average snow this decade.