bluewave

The sample size for La Ninas reaching 102° and higher in June is very small. The only 2 years were 2021 and 2011. In 2021 when it reached 103° that was the high for the entire summer. But in 2011 the 102° in June was followed by 108° in late July.

101 HX at JFK with 88°/78°. Kennedy Intl MOSUNNY 88 78 72 NE3 30.08S HX 101

Brownsville in Brooklyn is already 89°. https://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Brownsville Temp: 89°F

Newark is currently 85° at only 7am. The Euro has the correct temperature from its 0z forecast. It makes a run on 103° later. That would tie the all-time June record set back in 2021. The forecast for tomorrow is a few degrees warmer at 105°.

The record breaking Aleutian Ridge continues to warm the SSTs below leading to these persistent -PDOs again dropping back under -2.00. So the net effect is a record Southeast Ridge like we are seeing this week near 600 dm. This is what is driving such a strong La Niña background pattern. So there is probably a feedback process leading to the record warm subtropical SSTs. The RONI would be much lower if we subtracted the Nino 3.4 tropical SST departures from the subtropical.

You know the airmass is record warm when we hit a record high here in Southern CT yesterday with the sun coming out late. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 433 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 93 DEGREES TODAY AT BRIDGEPORT SIKORSKY AIRPORT. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 93 DEGREES, SET IN 1949. RECORDS FOR THE BRIDGEPORT CT AREA GO BACK TO 1948. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

If we get full sun and offshore flow, then I think 102° to 105° will be possible on Tuesday for the warmest spots across the area.

The RGEM and GFS have a regional high around 102°-103° for Tuesday. So if we compromise between them and the Euro, then somebody gets to the 102°-105° range. Since the GFS and RGEM have a small cool bias. Euro does best with full sun and strong WAA.

JFK is approaching a late day 100 heat index. Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 90 74 59 W12 29.99S HX 99

2010,2011, and 2012 were the toughest 3 year period for our local trees in s long time. First we had the March 2010 high wind event. Then the September 2010 macroburst and tornado. This was followed by Hurricane Irene in August 2011. Then the record late October snowstorm in 2011 which caused so much tree damage. Then Hurricane Sandy in October 2012.

I can still remember all the local ponds nearly drying up that August.

The HRRR has a late day high in the low 90s.

Only if it rains on the day when the expected peak temperatures of any given heatwave are expected to occur. The July 1995 Derecho went just to our north. Then we had the first heat indices near 130° with temps over 100° and dew points near 85°. That was one of the most extreme weather days of the 1990s. The scariest part was probably all the campers in the Adirondacks in tents with 115 mph gusts and one of the most electrified derechos for total CG strikes.

Record heat is often preceded by these MCS systems. The most famous one was in July 1995. A few hours later we had our highest heat indices in the 120s.

Same theme as we have seen for a while. The best beach weather and heat occurs on the week days. While it always finds a way to rain on the weekends.

This is the most extreme weather video that I have ever seen come out of Queens. Harsh language advisory. But it’s very understandable when you see 125 mph winds.

At least this is only a minor nuisance. The major issues with MCS systems is when they aren’t forecast and they are high end severe. This is what happened with the surprise September 2010 NYC tornado and macroburst.

Obviously you have never worked in research.

A continuation of these stuck weather patterns which have been common during the last decade or so.

Because weather modeling research takes money. Meteorology isn’t as high of a priority as other areas of spending around the world. The ECMWF is working in bringing the model down to convection allowing resolutions. But the computing power is very expensive.

While that’s a nice thought, one little MCS today won’t influence the 100° potential in the coming days.

The only good news is that it will dampen the high temperature potential today a bit. But I think Tuesday is still on track to be one of our warmest days of the 2020s. Even models that show the convection are still in the 102° to 105° range Tuesday.

Global models are not designed to track MCS systems. Maybe if they get closer to convection allowing resolutions. So this is par for the course.

I think somebody in the area has a shot at their first June 105° reading on Tuesday since this will be a 3 day heat build. The Euro was correct with the low 90s today as the GFS only had upper 80s. The heat away from the local sea breezes will begin ramping up tomorrow and build higher each day. My guess is that the best shot for 105° will be around Newark and Corona, Queens Tuesday. Maybe even an area we don’t expect further east into Nassau or NW Suffolk where the best compressional warming occurs right along the sea breeze front.

Just commenting on the fact that we didn’t used to get +30C warm pools in the EPAC off of Mexico and Central America during past strong -PDOs which drove this record early RI with Erick. So it’s the record and expansive WPAC warm pool driving this -PDO. Rather than in the old days when the -PDO cold pool off of California was much stronger and the WPAC warm pool weaker. It would be great if we had real time 2nd EOF PDO updates to do along with the traditional PDO.