bluewave
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It was a near record positive AO for October. But the wave break produced very strong blocking over the EPO and PNA regions. So we were much colder than usual for such a strong +AO pattern. That’s why our sensible weather is often driven by a combination of teleconnections rather than just one exclusively. The AO and NAO blocking will increase day 6-10 as another wave breaker storm cuts through the Great Lakes.
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It will be interesting to see if we can get our first cool October since 2009. Newark October temperature departures 2022…..-7.9….so far 2021…..+6.9 2020….+1.5 2019…..+3.8 2018…..+0.8 2017…..+7.2 2016…+2.3 2015….+0.6 2014….+2.7 2013….+3.0 2012…..+2.2 2011……+1.5 2010……+1.9 2009…..-0.8
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The blocking that produced the record low maxes this week was Pacific dominant. But the storm that cuts this week will cause a west based Atlantic block. So this more Nino-like October pattern continues as the North Pacific warm pool is overriding the La Niña signal. The La Niña SE Ridge /WAR has been the default pattern since the super El Niño. Cooler fall patterns have become non existent before November in recent years. November has been our only month with record cold for a while now. So this cooler October pattern would be our first since the Modoki El Niño in 2009 if it can hold.
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Unusually strong blocking like the models are forecasting following the wave breaker cutter this week.
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2018 was the earliest. First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2018 03-21 (2018) 8.2 11-15 (2018) 6.4 238 1911 - - 12-04 (1911) 7.0 - 1957 02-01 (1957) 6.3 12-04 (1957) 7.5 305 1926 02-10 (1926) 10.4 12-05 (1926) 7.9 297 2002 - - 12-05 (2002) 6.0 - 2003 02-17 (2003) 16.3 12-05 (2003) 8.0 290 1960 03-03 (1960) 12.5 12-12 (1960) 11.6 283 1902 03-05 (1902) 6.5 12-13 (1902) 6.0 282 1917 04-09 (1917) 6.4 12-13 (1917) 8.0 247 1916 03-06 (1916) 7.6 12-15 (1916) 12.7 283 2020 - - 12-16 (2020) 6.5 -
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Our most impressive fall cold temperature records in recent years were the 3rd and 4th earliest 25° readings in 2019 and 2017. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1879 04-05 (1879) 25 11-04 (1879) 25 212 1976 04-12 (1976) 25 11-09 (1976) 24 210 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2019 03-08 (2019) 24 11-12 (2019) 25 248 1920 03-15 (1920) 23 11-13 (1920) 25 242 1986 03-22 (1986) 24 11-13 (1986) 24 235
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The low of 37° at Newark is just 2° from the record low of 35°. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-08DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/9 35 in 1988 36 in 2001 37 in 2022
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Great job from the statistical Arctic sea ice modeling team. The early June forecast was just a little on the low side but still good for such a long lead time. It corrected higher as the months went on. So another September average extent in the 4s. This has become the new normal since 2007 with 11 out of the last 16 years in this range. 2022….4.87 2021……4.92 2020……3.92 2019……4.32 2018…...4.71 2017……4.87 2016……4.72 2015…..4.63 2014…..5.28 2013…..5.35 2012…..3.60 2011……4.61 2010…..4.90 2009….5.36 2008….4.67 2007…..4.28
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Earliest first 30s of the season at Newark since 2003. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference Minimum 04-01 (2017) 10-03 (2003) 160 Mean 04-21 10-21 182 2022 04-18 (2022) 36 10-09 (2022) - - 2021 04-22 (2021) 37 11-03 (2021) 39 194 2020 05-10 (2020) 35 10-18 (2020) 39 160 2019 04-29 (2019) 37 11-02 (2019) 36 186 2018 04-21 (2018) 37 10-19 (2018) 35 180 2017 04-01 (2017) 36 11-01 (2017) 39 213 2016 04-15 (2016) 39 10-26 (2016) 37 193 2015 04-25 (2015) 36 10-17 (2015) 39 174 2014 04-21 (2014) 37 10-20 (2014) 39 181 2013 04-21 (2013) 37 10-24 (2013) 39 185 2012 04-28 (2012) 38 10-13 (2012) 34 167 2011 04-22 (2011) 37 10-28 (2011) 36 188 2010 04-28 (2010) 38 10-30 (2010) 38 184 2009 04-17 (2009) 37 10-14 (2009) 38 179 2008 05-01 (2008) 37 10-19 (2008) 39 170 2007 04-21 (2007) 39 10-29 (2007) 39 190 2006 04-10 (2006) 39 10-13 (2006) 39 185 2005 05-03 (2005) 39 10-27 (2005) 38 176 2004 04-06 (2004) 31 10-18 (2004) 39 194 2003 04-18 (2003) 36 10-03 (2003) 39 167
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That North Pacific record warm pool is producing classic October El Niño 500 mb pattern instead of a La Niña. October El Niño composite October La Niña composite
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The Euro the has the next strong cold front later next week with another opportunity for rain. We may even get a bonus wave break to produce a -NAO to join the -EPO/+PNA.
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Strong cold front coming up for the weekend with 70s today falling to the 30s and 40s by Sunday morning.
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This was the 5th coldest first 5 days of October at Newark coming in at -9 and 53.5°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 5 Missing Count 1 1974-10-05 51.5 0 2 2003-10-05 52.3 0 3 1945-10-05 52.5 0 4 1935-10-05 53.0 0 5 2022-10-05 53.5 0 - 1938-10-05 53.5 0
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The best we can do is identify which competing warm pools may pushback against the canonical ENSO expectations in the new era of ongoing marine heatwaves. In the old days, it was usually just ENSO and whether the NAO would be positive or negative. Now, a new layer of record SST warmth has added to the complexity with record SSTs in both the tropics and subtropics. So this is why seasonal model forecasts can be low skill when models don’t know which warm pool or pools will dominate.
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Impressive for Newark to get two record low maxes in a row. This is the first two consecutive records since the Memorial Day weekend in 2021. So the typical warm October La Niña pattern is getting overpowered by the North Pacific warm pool and more Nino-like +PNA. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-04DateLowest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/3 52 in 2022 52 in 1974 53 in 1939 10/4 51 in 2022 52 in 1965 55 in 1996+ 5/29 52 in 2021 60 in 1950 60 in 1940 5/30 53 in 2021 53 in 1953 59 in 2017
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The first 3 days of October are about 12° cooler than the entire month was last year. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2022 52.5 28 2021 64.4 0 2020 58.1 0 2019 60.4 0 2018 57.4 0 2017 63.8 0 2016 58.9 0 2015 57.2 0 2014 59.3 0 2013 59.6 0 2012 58.8 0 2011 58.1 0 2010 58.3 0 2009 55.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 64.4 0 2 2017 63.8 0 3 2007 63.5 0 4 1971 63.1 0 5 1990 62.4 0 6 1984 62.2 0 7 1949 61.6 0 8 1963 61.2 0 9 1995 61.0 0 - 1947 61.0 0 10 2019 60.4 0 - 1954 60.4 0
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Good to see those 3.00” totals near the South Shore since Sunday. But Central NJ gets another jackpot. Some spots recorded 10.00”+. NJ-OC-105 Barnegat Twp 2.6 ESE Lat: 39.7553762321453 Lon: -74.230699170895 * indicates Multi-Day Accumulation Report Station NJ-OC-105 Date Precip in. 10/01/2022 1.27 10/02/2022 0.73 10/03/2022 5.90 10/04/2022 2.30 Totals : 10.20 in.
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The big question is how long this cooler October +PNA pattern can last? We haven’t had a colder October since the modoki El Niño in 2009. So it will be interesting to see if the North Pacific warm pool can continue the more Nino-like pattern or the milder La Niña eventually returns. Newark October temperature departures 2021…..+6.9 2020….+1.5 2019…..+3.8 2018…..+0.8 2017…..+7.2 2016…+2.3 2015….+0.6 2014….+2.7 2013….+3.0 2012…..+2.2 2011……+1.5 2010……+1.9 2009…..-0.8
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So I guess we’ll also have to toss the record low max tie today at Newark. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-02 Lowest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/3 52 in 1974 52 in 2022 53 in 1939
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The good thing about our climate is that we don’t have a well defined dry season like they do out West. So dry patterns usually resolve on their own. We haven’t had a water emergency in NYC since 2002. Meanwhile, the West has been experiencing more than a 1000 year megadrought over the last 10 to 20 years. Having nearly all months average around 4.00” gives us plenty of opportunities for precipitation here.
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The rain shield sliding north today makes the models showing the 2.00”+ additional of rainfall to the South Shore look believable for a change.
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This was the worst warm season drought from June to September at JFK since the 1960s. But it’s only 4 months long instead of years long like back then. That’s why there have been no serious water shortages just dry conditions for gardening interests. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jun 1 to Sep 30 Missing Count 1 1965-09-30 6.64 0 2 2022-09-30 7.05 0 3 1970-09-30 7.76 0 4 1948-09-30 8.44 46 5 1951-09-30 8.57 0 6 1957-09-30 8.72 0 7 1980-09-30 9.67 0 8 1995-09-30 9.74 0 9 2005-09-30 10.03 0 10 1998-09-30 10.12 0
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The HRRR which was correctly south with much of the rain last few days is wetter for Tuesday as the lower dewpoints and confluence relax a bit.
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This feels more like an October El Niño +PDO pattern with the cooler +PNA and heaviest rains in the Midatlantic. The near record warm +NPM must be overriding the La Niña. So this could make for an interesting winter forecast if the La Niña influence stays muted. October El Niño composite
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Tough for the main rains to advance north of I-78 with dewpoints in the 30s for NYC. Central Park CLOUDY 51 37 58 NE13G22
