bluewave

I grew up in Long Beach and mostly went to the beach for bodyboarding and bodysurfing. So I didn’t mind the occasional low clouds and foggy starts to the days. Some of the best wave conditions were on cloudy days with only intermittent breaks of sun. Plus those were some of the best days for the locals since it kept the big beach crowds away. Parking was always a big issue there. Many days there start out cloudy only to finish up sunny once the marine layer burns off. The Mediterranean is a whole different game with the drier conditions in places like Greece this time of year. One of my friends growing up was from Greece. His father owned several Greek restaurants in Long Beach over the years. They were a great family and wound up moving back to Greece.

Already seeing some breaks of sun down in Long Beach.

Looks like the best convection should stay just inland from the coast for at least the near term.

Nuisance drizzle but no relief from the recent dry pattern and having to water the garden to keep it going.

These low clouds were well forecast by the HRRR yesterday. I also noticed the low clouds moving in later in the day. Interior spots will slowly clear but it will take longer the further east you go today. HRRR forecast from 18z Saturday showed the low clouds Current HRRR slow clearing from west to east today

More extreme heavy rainfall leading to record flooding is the result of the record increasing atmospheric moisture content as the world continues to warm. https://www.copernicus.eu/en/news/news/observer-copernicus-climate-change-service-tracks-record-atmospheric-moisture-and-sea Water vapour: the invisible amplifier of global warming In 2024 the atmosphere held more moisture than previously recorded by a large margin. Total column water vapour—the total amount of moisture in a vertical column of air extending from the surface of the Earth to the top of the atmosphere—reached 4.9% above the 1991–2020 average, far surpassing previous highs in 2016 (3.4%) and 2023 (3.3%). Water vapour is Earth’s most abundant greenhouse gas, responsible for about half of the planet’s natural greenhouse effect. Unlike other greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH4), the concentration of water vapour in the atmosphere is not directly influenced by human activities. However, water vapour concentration rises as the atmosphere warms: for every 1°C increase in atmospheric temperature, air can hold 7% more moisture. This creates a vicious cycle—warmer air absorbs more vapour, which traps more heat, further accelerating warming. Annual anomalies in the average amount of total column water vapour over the 60°S–60°N domain relative to the average for the 1992–2020 reference period. The anomalies are expressed as a percentage of the 1992–2020 average. Data: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF. “Water vapour is both a consequence and a driver of climate change,” explains C3S Director Carlo Buontempo. “In 2024, we saw this feedback loop in ‘overdrive’. Higher sea surface temperatures intensified evaporation, whilst warmer atmosphere allowed more water to be held there as vapour, adding ‘fuel’ to several extreme weather events.” The consequences are potentially disastrous. Increased atmospheric moisture can intensify storms and increase the intensity of the most extreme rainfall. The atmosphere knows no borders, so the potential effects are global.

SMQ has seen a 5° rise in maximum July dew points since the late 90s from 67.5° to 72.5° similar to places like ISP.

JFK is much closer to the top of the list on 70° lows with the much higher dewpoints. 70° Low Data for January 1, 2025 through July 12, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 21 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 21 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 20 New York-Central Park Area ThreadEx 20 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 17 New York-Kennedy Airport Area ThreadEx 17 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 14 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 14 Islip Area ThreadEx 14 70° Low Data for January 1, 2025 through July 12, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 19 Newark Area ThreadEx 19 ATLANTIC CITY MARINA WBAN 18 HARRISON COOP 18 Atlantic City Marina Area ThreadEx 18 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 17 MARGATE COOP 16 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 15 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 15 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 15 EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 15 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 15 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 15 ESTELL MANOR COOP 14

Yeah, the ridge axis was to our west. This is why JFK only has around half as many 90° days as NJ this year so far. The warm spots in NJ may very well top 40 days reaching 90° again this year. While the number to the east of NYC with the sea breeze will be much lower. The ridge axis has been located to the east of New England again this summer. 90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 11, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Newark Area ThreadEx 18 OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 18 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 18 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 16 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 16 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 16 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 16 HARRISON COOP 16 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 14 90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 11, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 13 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 13 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 11 PORT JERVIS COOP 10 SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP 10 POUGHKEEPSIE/HUDSON VALLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 10 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 10 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 10 ST. JAMES COOP 10 DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 9 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 9 New York-Kennedy Airport Area ThreadEx 9 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 9 VICTOR 2NW COOP 8 LANSING MANOR COOP 8 WEBSTER 2 NE COOP 8 GANG MILLS NEW YORK RAWS 8 SHERBURNE NEW YORK RAWS 8 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 7 HUDSON CORRECTIONAL FACILITY COOP 7 DANSVILLE COOP 7 SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP WBAN 7 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 7 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 7 Islip Area ThreadEx 7 Syracuse Area ThreadEx 7 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 6 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 6 SHRUB OAK COOP 6 MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 6

The ridge during that 10 day heatwave in Central Park from 7-7-93 to 7-16-93 was centered in SE PA. Lower heights and pressures over New England kept the flow W to SW here. So no onshore flow influence back then like we are getting now.

Our longest heatwave around the area was 20 days from 7-29-88 to 8-17-88 at Newark. The ridge axis and strongest 500mb height anomaly was centered over the Great Lakes. At the surface the Bermuda high was pressed to our south with lower pressure over New England keeping the flow more SW. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1988-07-29 95 1988-07-30 99 1988-07-31 90 1988-08-01 91 1988-08-02 94 1988-08-03 93 1988-08-04 92 1988-08-05 90 1988-08-06 90 1988-08-07 93 1988-08-08 90 1988-08-09 92 1988-08-10 93 1988-08-11 97 1988-08-12 95 1988-08-13 98 1988-08-14 98 1988-08-15 99 1988-08-16 92 1988-08-17 90

When the WAR pushes into New England from the east we get more high pressure there leading to onshore flow here. Back in the old days we would get a strong ridge over the Great Lakes leading to more westerly flow here. But these days that area gets more troughs over the summer.

Strong WAR pattern setting up over the next week to 10 days. So plenty of onshore flow and cooling afternoon sea breezes east of NYC at the beaches. This will push the sea breeze front west of NYC keeping the strongest heat there. It will also keep the best convection west of Long Island. So plenty of lawn watering on tap to prevent the brown lawn syndrome which has become common on Long Island with these dry July patterns. July 14-21 forecast

Some newer studies are backing off those older predictions.

That’s the composite for the old days. Our new El Nino back in 23-24 had the mid-latitude marine heatwaves from Japan across the Atlantic to near Spain. So it resulted in a record warm pattern for North America even though the ONI was much weaker than 15-16 and 97-98.

While our summers here have become much warmer since 2010, at least they aren’t warming at the rate that Western Europe is.

The reason the 1995 summer was so humid with the nearly 130° heat index around 7-15 was due to corn sweat pooling under the inversion and getting transported to the East Coast.

Yeah, that’s why I posted it since it went into more detail on the same paper that you posted. This new -PDO is defined more by a warmer Western Pacific and stronger Aleutian Ridge from the older days. This leads to a further north storm tracks during the winter through the Great Lakes with warmer and less snowy conditions for our area. The older -PDO with a cooler Eastern Pacific and less WPAC warming had a weaker Aleutian Ridge. So we would often get colder and snowier winters under that -PDO regime from the last 40s into mid 70s. Plus the background climate has warmed so much more in general since then. This is why the Southeast Ridge has expanded so much over the last decade and it was often not even a factor back in those days. In addition, warming of the Atlantic resembling a +AMO is also probably boosting the 500 mb heights near the East Coast. This new pattern of mid-latitude rising 500mb heights and SSTs resembles a mid-latitude El Niño while the tropics have been more in La Niña mode.

More onshore flow due to the rising 500mb heights to the north and east of New England since around 2018. Those older summers had higher 500mb heights over the Great Lakes. So we would get more persistent westerly flow during those summers.

The ridge to the east of New England during the summers has been giving us more onshore flow. But it’s located further to the west during the winter. So we get more SW to W flow then with all the Great Lakes cutters.

This paper below explains why the circulation pattern shift is related to the warming and it focuses more on the Pacific side. But we have been seeing similar shifts in the Atlantic leading to more ridging east of New England. It results the repeating weather patterns we have been experiencing over the last decade. Don just posted this in the La Niña thread in the main forum. I added this link below. https://scienmag.com/north-pacific-climate-shifts-drive-southwest-us-drought/

Thanks for posting that paper which really confirms how significant a shift has occurred in the North Pacific. There was another article recently published on this paper which expands on the one that you posted. While this wasn’t what many of us on the forum wanted to hear, at least the team of researchers were clever enough to tie together paleoclimate reconstructions together with advanced climate modeling for a more coherent picture of what has been going on. https://scienmag.com/north-pacific-climate-shifts-drive-southwest-us-drought/ In recent years, the American Southwest has been gripped by one of the most prolonged and severe droughts in recorded history. While variations in precipitation and temperature have long challenged water resource management in this already arid region, the ongoing drought has raised alarm bells for scientists, policymakers, and residents alike. Understanding what drives these shifts in water availability is critical to anticipating future risks and developing adaptive strategies. A groundbreaking new study published in Nature Geoscience now provides compelling evidence that warming in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in the North Pacific, plays a pivotal role in shaping drought patterns over the Southwest United States through complex ocean-atmosphere interactions. This research combines innovative paleoclimate reconstructions with advanced climate modeling to unravel how moderate warming episodes in Earth’s past—specifically during the mid-Holocene, around 6,000 years ago—triggered oceanic and atmospheric responses that closely mirror modern drought conditions. By studying leaf-wax stable isotopes preserved in sediment cores, the authors reconstructed ancient rainfall patterns with unprecedented precision. These reconstructions revealed that subtle changes in ocean temperatures off the North Pacific coast led to atmospheric circulation shifts that suppressed precipitation across the Southwest, a mechanism remarkably similar to currently observed drought drivers. What makes this work especially illuminating is its identification of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as a critical mediator in this process. The PDO is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterized by long-term fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the North Pacific Ocean that profoundly influence weather and climate patterns across North America. The study’s findings indicate that moderate hemispheric warming can excite a PDO-like state—specifically its negative phase—resulting in sustained drying conditions in the Southwest. This conclusion challenges prior assumptions that natural oscillations would eventually reverse and alleviate drought conditions, instead implying that external forcings such as global warming may stabilize drought-inducing patterns. The implications for future climate projections are sobering. Simulations of twenty-first century climate pathways, driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, demonstrate that similar ocean-atmosphere dynamics are likely to emerge and endure. These simulations forecast persistent reductions in winter precipitation over the Southwest through at least the mid-century, exacerbating the region’s already critical water scarcity issues. Given that winter rains supply a substantial portion of the region’s annual precipitation and recharge vital aquifers, prolonged deficits pose significant threats to agriculture, urban water supplies, and natural ecosystems. However, the study also reveals that current climate models may underestimate the severity of these precipitation deficits. The authors suggest that the ocean-atmosphere coupling—how strongly and accurately models simulate the interaction between ocean warmth and atmospheric circulation—is likely too weak in existing frameworks. This underestimation means that official drought risk assessments and water management strategies may not be adequately prepared for the intensity or duration of future dry spells dictated by North Pacific variability under a warming climate. This advances a growing body of evidence underscoring the Pacific Ocean’s outsized influence on terrestrial climate variability in the western United States. The North Pacific’s role is multifaceted, involving the modulation of storm tracks, alterations in jet stream position and strength, and changes in moisture transport pathways. By illuminating the mechanisms through which relatively moderate warming perturbs this system, the research offers a nuanced understanding of regional climate dynamics that transcends simplistic attributions to long-term warming or random variability alone. Perhaps most compellingly, the paleoclimate perspective grants the study an unparalleled vantage point. Utilizing ancient environmental archives to calibrate and validate model simulations bridges the gap between historical climate fluctuations and future projection scenarios. This approach ensures that the conclusions are firmly rooted in empirical evidence, helping to surmount some of the uncertainties that plague climate prediction in complex transitional zones like the Southwest. The mid-Holocene period serves as a natural analog for how the contemporary Earth climate system might respond to ongoing warming trends. The study’s methodology highlights the innovative use of leaf-wax isotopes, a biomarker that preserves signals of past hydrological conditions through changes in hydrogen isotope ratios. This technique captures past rainfall variability integrated over plant growing seasons and provides a proxy record that can be spatially and temporally correlated with model outputs. Such high-resolution paleoclimate data strengthen confidence in attributing Southwest drought episodes to ocean-driven atmospheric circulations rather than isolated terrestrial or stochastic factors. In practical terms, these findings emphasize the need for water managers, urban planners, and policymakers to incorporate dynamic ocean-atmosphere feedbacks into drought risk models and resource allocation strategies. Static assessments based solely on historical precipitation trends could lead to dangerously optimistic assumptions. Instead, adaptive frameworks must account for the possibility that warming seas off the Pacific Northwest and Alaska may sustain drying influences for decades, intensifying competition for scarce water supplies across municipal, agricultural, and ecological sectors. Scientists are also calling for an urgent refinement of climate models to better replicate the subtle but critical feedbacks identifying the ocean’s influence on atmospheric patterns that steer precipitation regimes. Such improvements are crucial, as underestimating these processes risks downplaying the Southwest’s vulnerability to exacerbated drought conditions and the cascading socioeconomic impacts that follow. Enhanced model sophistication will also improve the reliability of seasonal and decadal forecasts, crucial for water allocation decisions in drought-prone regions. Furthermore, this research situates the Southwest drought within the broader context of anthropogenic climate change, illustrating that natural variability modes like the PDO can be amplified or modulated by human-driven warming. This intersection complicates predictions but also stresses the urgency of climate mitigation efforts. Without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, these drought-favoring ocean-atmosphere states may become increasingly entrenched, imperiling water security for millions of residents and straining fragile ecosystems. The findings also contribute to the growing discourse on climate resilience and the need for sustainable water use practices. Recognizing that intensified drought risk is not merely cyclical but potentially a forced response to anthropogenic warming highlights the importance of diversified water portfolios, investments in conservation technologies, and reforms in water rights systems. Communities in the Southwest must prepare for a future where drought is not an anomaly but a persistent stressor shaped by global climate dynamics. In summary, this landmark study integrating paleoclimate evidence and future climate modeling transforms our understanding of the Southwest United States drought by pinpointing the North Pacific ocean-atmosphere system as a central driver modulated by Northern Hemisphere warming. It challenges prevailing assumptions about the transitory nature of current drought conditions and suggests that external forcing is capable of sustaining drought-inducing oceanic patterns similar to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This new insight demands meaningful recalibrations in climate prediction frameworks and resource management policies to adequately prepare for a potentially drier future under continued global warming. The message is unequivocal: the interplay between warming seas and atmospheric circulation cannot be overlooked if we aim to understand and combat the growing risks of drought in one of America’s most vulnerable regions. As the Southwest grapples with dwindling water supplies amidst cities and landscapes dependent on reliable precipitation, this research underscores the urgent need to enhance predictive capabilities and strengthen societal resilience in the face of a changing climate punctuated by powerful ocean-driven droughts.

Don’t know if we can repeat 2010 east of NYC since the summer circulation patterns have shifted so much since then. Prior to 15-16 we would often get ridges over the Great Lakes and westerly flow summers. Since then we get a ridge over New England and the Rockies. This leaves a trough closer to the Great Lakes and more onshore flow here. So getting 30 days reaching 90° at JFK will be a challenge with onshore flow.

2010 will always be a tough act to follow east of NYC with how much more onshore flow we have been getting the last decade. This summer we had that one interval back in late June when westerly flow made it down to the coast. But the onshore flow quickly returned. Parts of NJ surpassed 2010 for 90° days back in 2022 away from the sea breeze. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Top 10 Years For 90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 - 1949 18 0 5 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0 6 2022 16 0 - 2012 16 0 - 1959 16 3 - 1955 16 2 7 2016 15 0 - 1995 15 0 - 1961 15 0 8 1999 14 0 - 1988 14 0 - 1966 14 0 - 1952 14 0 9 2011 13 0 - 1993 13 0 - 1984 13 0 - 1977 13 0 - 1970 13 0 - 1969 13 0 - 1963 13 0 10 2020 12 0 - 2015 12 0 - 2006 12 0 - 2003 12 0 - 1978 12 0 - 1968 12 0 - 1953 12 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 54 0 2 2022 49 0 - 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 Time Series Summary for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ - Jan through Dec Top 10 Years For 90° Days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2022 49 2 2 2010 48 4 3 2016 46 2 4 2020 42 0 5 2024 41 2 - 2021 41 0 - 1988 41 0 6 1983 40 0 7 2002 37 0 8 2018 36 1 - 2015 36 3 - 1957 36 0 - 1930 36 1 - 1895 36 11 9 2019 35 0 - 1999 35 0 - 1894 35 12 10 1944 34 1

It’s only an anomaly if we use the CMIP5 models which incorrectly forecast the EPAC warming faster than the WPAC. The GFDL model has done much better capturing the faster WPAC warming. We have seen time and time again that weather and climate modeling isn’t an exact science. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/11/jcli-d-16-0441.1.xml The majority of the models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global warming experiments warm faster in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean than in the west. GFDL-ESM2M is an exception among the state-of-the-art global climate models in that the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the west warms faster than in the east, and the Walker circulation strengthens in response to warming. This study shows that this “La Niña–like” trend simulated by GFDL-ESM2M could be a physically consistent response to warming, and that the forced response could have been detectable since the late twentieth century. Two additional models are examined: GFDL-ESM2G, which differs from GFDL-ESM2M only in the oceanic components, warms without a clear zonal SST gradient; and HadGEM2-CC exhibits a warming pattern that resembles the multimodel mean. A fundamental observed constraint between the amplitude of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the mean-state zonal SST gradient is reproduced well by GFDL-ESM2M but not by the other two models, which display substantially weaker ENSO nonlinearity than is observed. Under this constraint, the weakening nonlinear ENSO amplitude in GFDL-ESM2M rectifies the mean state to be La Niña–like. GFDL-ESM2M exhibits more realistic equatorial thermal stratification than GFDL-ESM2G, which appears to be the most important difference for the ENSO nonlinearity. On longer time scales, the weaker polar amplification in GFDL-ESM2M may also explain the origin of the colder equatorial upwelling water, which could in turn weaken the ENSO amplitude.