bluewave

Just wish we didn’t get the warm layer just above the surface.

Officially my worst freezing rain conditions of the 2020s so far. 1.5” of snow followed by around .10 of ice. Still some very light freezing rain and 30° just east of HVN.

My favorite was 12 /22/15 +4.503 to 1/16/16 -4.898 due to the record breaking snowstorm shortly after.

Switched over to a mix of sleet and freezing and 27° here just east of KHVN. The 3km NAM more accurate here than the HRRR.

I think its more related to the Euro regularly underestimating the strength of the ridge over the Western Atlantic.

The -5.285 AO rise to +5.536 in under 30 days back in 2021 may be the most extreme short term AO reversal we have seen. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii 2021 2 10 -5.285 2021 3 11 5.536

These rapid and highly amplified NAO and AO swings from one phase to another have become more common for us since the study was published in 2009. https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/922025 The research team found the variability of the NAO decade-to-decade (multi-decadal scale) has been larger, swinging more wildly, during the late twentieth century than in the early 1800s, suggesting that variability is linked to the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere. This confirms variability previously reported in past terrestrial reconstructions. "When the Industrial Revolution begins and atmospheric temperature becomes warmer, the NAO takes on a much stronger pattern in longer-term behavior," said Goodkin. "That was suspected before in the instrumental records, but this is the first time it has been documented in records from both the ocean and the atmosphere." The North Atlantic Oscillation is described by the NAO index, calculated as a weighted difference between the polar low and the subtropical high during the winter season. In a positive phase, both the low-pressure zone over Iceland and high pressure over the Azores are intensified, resulting in changes in the strength, incidence, and pathway of winter storms crossing the Atlantic. In a negative phase, a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway. The NAO index varies from year to year, but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting more than a decade. An unusually long period of positive phase between 1970-2000 led to the suggestion that global warming was affecting the behavior of the NAO. "Anthropogenic (human-related) warming does not appear to be altering whether the NAO is in a positive or negative phase at multi-decadal time scales," said WHOI paleoclimatologist Konrad Hughen. "It does seem to be increasing variability. Clearly, this has implications for the future." "As temperatures get warmer, there's potential for more violent swings of the NAO — the phases becoming even more positive and even more negative," Hughen added. "If the NAO locks more into these patterns, intense storms will become more intense and droughts will become more severe."

The record SSTs near 60E drove the very amplified MJO 2 response and deep trough out West.

One of the biggest snow extent reversals for North America that we have seen. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

It could be. 12-24-15 was +33 and 2-14-16 was -27.

The greatest Arctic outbreak in NYC since 1994 occurred during our 2nd warmest winter in 15-16. It was colder than any of the readings in the 13-14 and 14-15 winters. The low of 3 last winter was similar to both those winters which were much colder. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Minimum Temperature 1 2001-2002 41.5 19 2 2022-2023 41.0 3 - 2015-2016 41.0 -1 3 2011-2012 40.5 13 4 1931-1932 40.1 18 5 1997-1998 39.6 14 Lowest temperature 2014-2015 2 0 2013-2014 4 0 Winter average temperature 2014-2015 31.4 0 2013-2014 32.9 0

NYC finished in 3rd place for warmest 1st half of winter. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Jan 14 Missing Count 1 2016-01-14 45.8 0 2 2007-01-14 44.4 0 3 2024-01-14 43.2 0 4 2012-01-14 41.7 0 5 2002-01-14 41.6 0 - 1932-01-14 41.6 0

I can’t remember the last time we ever had 3 distinctly different 500 mb teleconnection patterns during a two week interval this time of year.

We may set a new record for late January pattern changes with how amped up this MJO action is.

Some of the locals said this was the best snow squall in the last few years for Albany.

Best chance of the season so far for NYC to drop below 15° or maybe even 10° next weekend. Impressive Arctic high pressure moves east and turns the winds more NW to NNW. So this should be more of a cold air drain down the Hudson Valley instead of crossing the warm Great Lakes. Fresh snow cover from the system right before would be greatly appreciated to give NYC a better shot at maximizing its cold potential.

The Euro continues its suppression issues with East Coast storm tracks. Big NW correction from around 5 days out to the most recent model runs. Had the same issue with the previous storm where the heaviest snowfall totals shifted from around NYC NW back to Orange County NY. So either the actual low or the rain-snow line comes NW. Sometimes it’s just one and other times both.

This was probably our windiest week In a while. Several 50-60 mph gusts with this event. ...ANZ330... Stongington Outer Br 60 249 PM 1/14 WXFLOW Newark Airport 51 420 PM 1/14 ASOS Bayville 57 451 PM 1/14 WXFLOW Bellmore 56 135 PM 1/14 Mesonet Eatons Neck 57 402 PM 1/14 WXFLOW

54 mph seems to be the peak gust so far on Long Island. Matinecock Pt N/A 39 N/A N/A SW44G54

My favorite temperature for long distance bike riding back on the Long Beach boardwalk was the 70s. My personal record was a 40 mile ride. Once the temperature got over 90° or under 20° my maximum distance would fall to around 5 miles.

I actually enjoyed the 0° with 40 mph gusts on the LB boardwalk in Jan 85 more than the 100° with 75° dewpoint in the same spot in July 99.° In the summer heat you can only take off so many clothes but in the winter you can layer up quite a bit.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm02052016 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 535 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016 BETHPAGE 11.5 110 PM 2/05 PUBLIC NORTH BELLMORE 11.3 1249 PM 2/05 SOCIAL MEDIA EAST HILLS 11.0 1230 PM 2/05 PUBLIC PLAINVIEW 10.5 110 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER LEVITTOWN 10.2 1131 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER NORTH MERRICK 10.0 200 PM 2/05 PUBLIC TERRYVILLE 12.0 248 PM 2/05 PUBLIC SETAUKET 12.0 100 PM 2/05 NWS EMPLOYEE SAINT JAMES 11.9 110 PM 2/05 PUBLIC FARMINGVILLE 11.2 130 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER SELDEN 11.0 145 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER SOUTH HUNTINGTON 11.0 1130 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER PORT JEFFERSON 11.0 215 PM 2/05 PUBLIC YAPHANK 11.0 315 PM 2/05 PUBLIC HAUPPAUGE 10.5 130 PM 2/05 NWS EMPLOYEE MILLER PLACE 10.5 130 PM 2/05 PUBLIC HOLTSVILLE 10.0 300 PM 2/05 AMATEUR RADIO HUNTINGTON 10.0 130 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER

We have much higher forecast skill with cutters beyond 3-5 days like the two we just had. Since NYC will usually get mostly rain whether the low cuts 50 miles or 500 miles to the west. But a storm tracking within 50 miles east to 500 miles east of NYC will have a much different outcome. Anything from mixing, perfect benchmark snowstorm track, or complete suppression. I would love it if all the global and meso modeling centers kept specific model skill scores for East Coast storm tracks. Unfortunately, these hemispheric skill scores don’t always tell the story about how good the model is doing on East Coast storm tracks. We have seen periods when the CMC nailed a snowstorm forecast beyond 5 days like 1-31-21. Other times when the UKMET did great like the follow up storm after the January the 2016 blizzard. Then we have the Euro which was too far west with the January 2015 blizzard. And too suppressed with the 2016 blizzard. The Euro did a amazing with NEMO. Often times we have to wait until we get to within the NAM and RGEMs range to figure out the exact track and rain-snow line for NYC.

I don’t look at models beyond 24-72 hrs for specific snowfall output. That is one of the lowest skill parameters longer range for models. I wasn’t favoring the CMC or any other model for this system. Don’t mistake me discussing what x or y model says as an endorsement of that model in a model discussion thread.