bluewave
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Everything posted by bluewave
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The monthly max departures dominated over the mins due to the record high pressure, drought, and good radiational cooling conditions.
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If a 20-40 meter Southeast Ridge 500 mb anomaly actually verified like the CanSIPS is showing , then the temperature anomalies would be much warmer. The 500 millibar anomaly chart is close to the 16-17 La Niña winter. Several locations that winter went 5+. We would need at least one month with a big mismatch pattern for the La Niña and -PDO to stay in the more moderate +1 to + 3 range where the warmest departures actually set up.
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First time that Newark had 5 days reaching 80° or warmer after October 20th. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-12-31 5 61 2 1979-12-31 3 0 - 1950-12-31 3 0 - 1947-12-31 3 0 3 2023-12-31 2 0 - 1963-12-31 2 0 - 1946-12-31 2 0
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The early unofficial ranking for October was 3rd warmest for the CONUS based on Prism temperatures. The official rankings should be out in a few weeks. 2016 is currently ranked 3rd and 2015 was 5th warmest. Our last top 10 coldest October was in 2009 which finished at 4th coldest. Several mid-Atlantic stations had their snowiest season on record following that cold October. It was the last one that several Southeast locations registered a top 10 coldest winter.
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Yeah, this +EPO pattern has been on steroids. We have about 5 weeks to see if a wetter pattern can emerge by early December. Nobody wants to see a repeat of the 01-02 dry pattern which ran from the fall of 01 into the summer of 02.
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We are going to need a big reversal of this dry pattern mid to late month in order to avoid the driest fall since 2001. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Sep through Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 0.77 30 2 1922 2.37 0 3 1879 2.91 0 4 1915 3.66 0 5 2001 3.97 0 6 1884 4.05 0 7 1871 4.09 61 8 1914 4.14 0 9 1908 4.27 0 10 1990 4.56 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Sep through Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 0.36 30 2 1965 3.31 0 3 2001 4.02 0 4 2013 4.86 0 5 1973 5.38 0 6 1998 5.96 0 7 1982 6.34 0 8 2007 6.50 0 9 1967 6.56 0 10 1994 7.42 0
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More record warmth to start November with highs approaching 80° again right onto Long Island. Very strong downslope offshore flow. The steeper low level lapse rates with the dry frontal passage will allow wind gusts to approach 35-40 mph.
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Some spots to our north approached +30 today. THE WATERTOWN NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 31 2024... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1949 TO 2024 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 78R 2:30 PM 72 1989 53 25 42 MINIMUM 63 6:25 AM 15 2002 35 28 26 AVERAGE 71 44 27 34
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Looks like the warmest October on record north of 80N. https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
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Latest 80°reading of the year at HPN beating 2023 and 1989 by 2-3 days. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khpn First/Last Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1989 03-28 (1989) 80 10-29 (1989) 82 214 2023 04-12 (2023) 82 10-28 (2023) 81 198 1963 05-05 (1963) 83 10-28 (1963) 80 175 1979 05-09 (1979) 86 10-22 (1979) 82 165 2016 05-25 (2016) 87 10-19 (2016) 83 146
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Only the 4th time that JFK will finish October with a 70° or warmer average high temperature. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending warmest average high temperature 1 2017 71.0 0 2 2024 70.2 1 - 1971 70.2 0 3 2007 70.1 0 4 2021 69.9 0 5 1963 69.2 0 6 1995 69.0 0 7 1949 68.7 0 8 1984 68.6 0 9 1990 68.4 0 10 1961 68.3 0
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The record 500 mb block which was over Canada since May 2023 finally came south.
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The coast to coast blocking ridge shut the rainfall off for a large portion of the U.S.
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Even areas north of LIE on LI could see 80° before the sea breeze arrives later today.
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It’s the first time your area had so many October freezes while still running +5.5 on the maximum temperatures due to the very dry conditions and so much high pressure and light winds. SMQ Oct 24….max…+5.5….min…..-2.5……8 days dropping to 32 or lower.
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Record low dew points for this time of year.
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I am thinking we are going to have to wait until the first week of December to know since the forcing leading to these standing wave patterns can result in the main 500mb height anomaly shifting locations depending on the month.
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The ridge keeps beating model forecasts. New run Old run
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12 record highs from late October into November since 2016 at spots like Newark with the potential for more next few weeks. https://threadex.rcc-acis.org Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2024-10-29DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/18 85 in 2016 80 in 1964 79 in 2007+ 10/19 87 in 2016 82 in 1945 81 in 1963 10/20 80 in 2021 80 in 1969 80 in 1947 10/21 84 in 2024 84 in 1947 81 in 2017 10/22 86 in 1979 83 in 2024 79 in 1984+ 10/23 87 in 1947 82 in 2024 82 in 1978 10/24 83 in 2001 78 in 1946 77 in 2017+ 10/25 79 in 2001 79 in 1963 78 in 2021 10/26 82 in 2023 79 in 1964 79 in 1963 10/27 81 in 1963 80 in 1947 78 in 2023+ 10/28 84 in 2023 82 in 1984 78 in 1989+ 10/29 78 in 1971 78 in 1946 76 in 1989 10/30 82 in 1946 80 in 1961 80 in 1950 10/31 82 in 1946 79 in 1950 77 in 1945 11/1 85 in 1950 81 in 1974 78 in 1982 11/2 84 in 1950 80 in 1982 78 in 1990+ 11/3 81 in 2003 79 in 1990 76 in 2017+ 11/4 79 in 1994 78 in 1987 77 in 1982+ 11/5 79 in 2022 77 in 1959 76 in 1994 11/6 80 in 1948 77 in 2022 77 in 1959 11/7 81 in 2022 78 in 1938 77 in 2020 11/8 77 in 2020 76 in 1975 75 in 1945 11/9 77 in 2020 75 in 1975 74 in 2021 11/10 76 in 2020 73 in 1999 73 in 1985+ 11/11 75 in 1949 73 in 2020 71 in 2022 11/12 74 in 2022 74 in 1938 71 in 1982
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The last time was in 2022. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1950 85 0 2 2022 81 0 - 2003 81 0 - 1974 81 0 3 1993 80 0 - 1982 80 0
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Yeah, the magnitude of the 500mb anomalies are off the charts for what would have been past occasions of forcing lining up over the WPAC.
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The composites this month matched a much stronger MJO 6 in the means than we have seen in any other past October. So my guess is that we are getting enhanced SST feedback east of Japan. When this combined with the background Maritime Continent forcing it resulted in an unusually strong standing wave pattern for October.
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Yeah, the PAC Jet shift to the north has really dried things out across the U.S. this month.
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A few spots could overperform and reach 80° today in NJ. Then more widespread 80° readings expected tomorrow. Thursday will be closer to record high temperatures in spots.
