bluewave
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It’s funny that the snowfall climo has actually been better December 1st through 17th since 2011 in NYC than later in the month. NYC hasn’t had a decent late December snowstorm since the Boxing Day blizzard in 2010. My guess is this is related to the warm up we have been getting every year during the 2nd half of the month since 2011. High temperatures of 55+ have been very reliable from the December 17th through 25th. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending snowfall 12-01 to 12-17 2023-12-17 T 0 2022-12-17 T 0 2021-12-17 T 0 2020-12-17 10.5 0 2019-12-17 1.8 0 2018-12-17 T 0 2017-12-17 7.0 0 2016-12-17 3.2 0 2015-12-17 0.0 0 2014-12-17 1.0 0 2013-12-17 8.6 0 2012-12-17 0.0 0 2011-12-17 0.0 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending snowfall 12-18 to 12-31 2023-12-31 0.0 0 2022-12-31 T 0 2021-12-31 0.2 0 2020-12-31 T 0 2019-12-31 0.7 0 2018-12-31 T 0 2017-12-31 0.7 0 2016-12-31 T 0 2015-12-31 T 0 2014-12-31 T 0 2013-12-31 T 0 2012-12-31 0.4 0 2011-12-31 0.0 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending max temp December 17th through 25th 2023-12-25 62 0 2022-12-25 58 0 2021-12-25 60 0 2020-12-25 61 0 2019-12-25 57 0 2018-12-25 61 0 2017-12-25 55 0 2016-12-25 58 0 2015-12-25 72 0 2014-12-25 62 0 2013-12-25 71 0 2012-12-25 56 0 2011-12-25 62 0
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60°+ Octobers have become much more common in recent years. In the old days Octobers were closer to 55°. Julys used to average around 75° and now closer to 80°. Decembers at Newark used to be closer 35° and now 40°. So a 5° rise in the 10 year running means since the 1930s. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2021 64.4 0 2 2017 63.8 0 3 2007 63.5 0 4 1971 63.1 0 5 1990 62.4 0 6 2024 62.2 7 - 1984 62.2 0 7 2023 62.0 0 8 1949 61.6 0 9 1963 61.2 0 10 1995 61.0 0 - 1947 61.0 0 11 2019 60.4 0 - 1954 60.4 0 12 1973 60.3 0 13 1946 60.0 0
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Those 850 mb temps should be near +20C early Tuesday for the 70° lows around Iowa. But they should modify quite a bit coming east. Looks similar to the other day when the warm spots went 80-85 in NJ. That should be good for more record high potential at around Halloween as the surface forecast highs have been beating forecasts with the record dry pattern.
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The extreme +EPO pattern this month looks like a blend of influences. La Niña background forcing, marine heatwave east of Japan/-PDO, and some MJO. Notice how the MJO 6 composite is much weaker than the pattern we got. So the other influences are at work. Also notice how well defined the warm pool near Japan and the Cold SST pool near Alaska has become with the +EPO.
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The unusual thing about the airmass next week will be how warm the minimums will be to our west. Models have been hinting at lows near 70° in Iowa. This could be a first for so late in the season as the departures are forecast to be off the charts.
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01-02 only works as an analog if December comes out of the gate really warm and doesn’t trail off or reverse after. We got a very warm December in that range in 21 but the reversal in January took a +7 winter out of play. Then 22-23 started slightly cooler than avg in December before January and February averaged +7.5. Last winter started very warm again but the departures lagged in January and February. So it has been a challenge for NYC to get much beyond +5 in recent winters since it’s hard to sustain such high departures over a 3 month period. The bigger story has been the sustained above to near to record warmth since 15-16.
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A 01-02 repeat in this warmer climate would make the last few winters seem colder by comparison. The 01-02 winter went +7.1 in NYC against the much colder normals of that time. It averaged 41.5° and the same departure these days would yield a 43.3° average. Would be +1.8° warmer than 01-02 and +2.3° warmer than 22-23. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2001-2002 41.5 0 2 2022-2023 41.0 0 - 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2023-2024 40.6 0 4 2011-2012 40.5 0 5 1931-1932 40.1 0 6 1997-1998 39.6 0 7 2016-2017 39.3 0 8 2019-2020 39.2 0 9 1990-1991 39.1 0 10 1998-1999 38.6 0
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That was the only winter back in Long Beach that I was able to ride the boardwalk practically every day. Very few storms and mild temperatures. I couldn’t believe at the time how different it was from the 93-94 and 95-96 winters.
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If we were ever were able to repeat a 01-02 type warm and dry winter in this much warmer climate, then NYC would have a shot at their first under 1” snowfall season.
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Driest airmass of the season expected to arrive on Friday with dew points in the 20s during the afternoon peak heating.
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Newark only needs one more 80° day with next weeks warm up for the new all-time record after October 20th. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-12-31 3 69 - 1979-12-31 3 0 - 1950-12-31 3 0 - 1947-12-31 3 0
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Strong +EPO patterns can be very dry this time of year like we also saw back in 1963.
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The longer that marine heatwave near Japan kept going you knew that it was only a matter of time before a big +EPO pattern emerged.
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Newark only needs 3 more days for the new longest dry streak record. Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation < .01 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 26 1949-06-24 2 25 1939-11-30 3 24 1995-09-08 - 24 1980-02-15 - 24 1963-10-27 - 24 1959-09-27 - 24 1942-05-05 4 23 2024-10-22 - 23 1991-11-09
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This may be the first time we had two separate 590+DM ridge events in late October with the next big warm up next week.
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If we ever got a severe enough drought from June into July at peak annual heating with westerly flow my guess is that someone near Newark would have a shot at around 112°. The previous record high at Newark was 108°. Olympia, Washington beat their previous all-time record by 6° a few summers ago. So that shows what is possible in this much warmer world when severe drought feedback kicks in. Hopefully, we eventually shift back to our wetter pattern with more summer onshore flow and don’t ever see anything resembling a severe summer drought with westerly flow here. Since our power grid wasn’t designed for that type of extreme demand. Time Series Summary for Olympia Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2021 110 0 2 2009 104 0 - 1981 104 0 3 1994 102 0 4 2006 101 0
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This has to be one of the most extreme +EPO dry months ever experienced.
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Latest 85° of the season at Sussex, NJ beating the previous latest by 2 weeks with records back to 2001. Sussex SUNNY 85 First/Last Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2007 05-15 (2007) 85 10-08 (2007) 88 145 2023 04-13 (2023) 91 10-04 (2023) 85 173 2019 05-19 (2019) 85 10-02 (2019) 91 135
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While the records only go back to 1999, looks like this is the latest in the year that they reached 85°. They made it to 89° on 10-19-16. So just like after that very strong El Niño heading into La Niña like this fall. First/Last Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2016 05-25 (2016) 88 10-19 (2016) 88 146
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Very lucky to be getting this dry pattern now as we could have exceeded 110° at the warm spots like Newark with enough SW to W flow during July. Some locations reached 108° during 2010 and 2011 and those summers had more rainfall than the last 60 days. The summer of 2022 had more rainfall also and still managed to get over 100° for 6 days.
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It does look like the MJO favors tropical development in the Western Caribbean later in October into November. But we would need the suppression pattern which has been in effect since August 20th to relax. Current extended Euro keeps the moisture to our east.
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Sometimes the location of the NE PAC vortex in a La Niña locks in early like in 16-17. Notice how the trough set up near the PAC NW in October 2016 and didn’t move in the winter means. Way too early to know if the vortex stays closer to Alaska like we saw this October. But even if a fraction more of a vortex verifies this winter near Alaska than the current forecasts have it could present warmer risks to the winter forecast than the models are currently showing.
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The big modeling story this month is how much stronger the +EPO was than originally forecast by the Euro back in September. We may need to monitor this for the winter forecast since it could have a warmer influence than the Euro winter forecast is indicating. This is not something winter fans would like to see since we really haven’t had a +EPO dominant La Niña since 11-12, 99-00, and 98-99. Euro forecast for October Much stronger +EPO than forecast
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This month really illustrates how so much of the daily minimum temperature rise over the years was due to increasing dew points. This is one of the first months in recent times where the maximum temperatures are driving the departures. It has usually been the other way around. October temperature departures so far ISP…..max…+3.5….min….-1.8……+0.9 HPN…max….+3.8…min….+0.3….+1.7 EWR…max….+4.2…min…..0.0…..+2.1 POU…max…+4.2…..min…-3.8….+0.2 TTN…max…+3.7…..min….-1.8……+1.0
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Yeah, we are getting a sampler of the normal diurnal temperature range in the high desert.
