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bluewave

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Everything posted by bluewave

  1. bluewave
    Rapid pattern shifts have been the norm this season which the warmer ones dominating.
  2. bluewave
    While it looks like it will start out warmer than normal, it could also be a stormy pattern with a big -PNA trough out West and dueling branches of the Pacific Jet.
  3. bluewave
    It’s an impressive warm signal to start March. As the El Niño begins to fade, the northern branch of the Pacific Jet becomes active again. So the ensembles have a twin Pacific jet extension of both branches. This is followed by a deep trough out West and Southeast ridge pattern taking hold to start March.
  4. bluewave
    NYC has probably reached the point of needing a KU to reach normal seasonal snowfall against the 30 year averages. The much warmer temperatures makes it harder to add up a bunch of 1-3 to 2-4 or even 3-6 events like they could do before the 90s. There are just too few small to moderate events to reach normal. Since several of them turn out to be rain and we need to thread the needle for the snowier ones which are fewer in number than the old days.
  5. bluewave
    5 top 10 warmest winters since that +13.3 December 2015. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.6 0 2 2023-2024 41.1 16 3 2022-2023 41.0 0 - 2015-2016 41.0 0 4 2011-2012 40.5 0 5 1931-1932 40.2 0 6 1997-1998 39.6 0 7 2016-2017 39.3 0 8 2019-2020 39.2 0 9 1990-1991 39.1 0 10 1998-1999 38.6 0
  6. bluewave
    Don’t know what the exact weather is going to be on March 6th, but we could be talking about 60° readings near the beginning of March. Especially if we go toward that La Niña look of deep trough out West and Southeast ridge.
  7. bluewave
    You know it’s a warm winter pattern when what was supposed to be a colder week in earlier model runs struggles to stay below 40°.
  8. bluewave
    I am not sure exactly how the low measurements are occurring in each given situation. But it has been an ongoing issue over the years. Notice how LGA got 3.3 with less precipitation and warmer temperatures. We know that many spots had issues with low ratios due to the warmth. Plus we lost some accumulation to the higher temperatures. The NYC ratio looks a little low to me. So maybe the snowfall there was actually in the 3.5 to 4.0 range. But this isn’t enough of a difference to materially change the flavor of the seasonal snowfall rankings since and extra 0.5 to 0.8 isn’t going to make a big difference. Past issues with low measurements https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/12/21/central-park-conservancy-will-take-over-snowfall-measurements/ https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/11/science/flawed-snowfall-data-jeopardize-climate-change-research.html snowfall vs precipitation today EWR…4.9…..0.58 NYC….3.2…..0.77 LGA…..3.3…..0.64 JFK……4.2…..0.65 ISP…….4.3…..0.72
  9. bluewave
    At least we are doing better than BTV so far this month.
  10. bluewave
    While the NYC under 2” snowfall streak has finally ended, Boston continues its under 4” run. Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 717 2024-02-12 2 711 2013-02-07 - 711 1987-01-18 3 702 2003-02-06 4 686 1937-12-31 5 674 1974-01-08
  11. bluewave
    Thinking the measurement was probably a little late at Central Park so there was probably closer to 4” before melting and settling. Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service New York NY 114 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0100 PM Snow Central Park 40.78N 73.97W 02/13/2024 M3.2 inch New York (ManhattanNY Official NWS Obs
  12. bluewave
    Only recent report from Manhattan is 4” from Sam Champions rooftop garden.
  13. bluewave
    Pretty scenes from Central Park.
  14. bluewave
    Temperatures and rates are both important. It’s rare for NYC to get both the best rates of surrounding areas and enough cold. I believe February 2006 was one of the few times that Central Park got the best banding and was cold enough to have the heaviest accumulations from Newark east to MTP.
  15. bluewave
    It only got down to 33° after it had been snowing for several hours. So not having cold air in place ahead of a storm is going to reduce accumulations to some extent especially in such an urbanized setting like NYC. Where the banding sets up is always an issue but it helps to maximize accumulations if we are colder when the storm starts.
  16. bluewave
    Plus it was 40° when the precip started and the ratios weren’t the greatest so this would have been more snow if we had a cold air mass in place ahead of the storm.
  17. bluewave
    Looks like Central Park getting closer to ending its under 2” streak.
  18. bluewave
    Pretty winter scenes from Queens Blvd.
  19. bluewave
    1.2” in Central Park so far. Central Park 1.2 in 0700 AM 02/13 Official NWS Obs
  20. bluewave
    Very pretty postcard scene now in Central Park.
  21. bluewave
    Streets are wet as expected but snow starting to accumulate on the grass in Central Park. https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/columbuscircle/?cam=columbus_circle
  22. bluewave
    I am glad that we finally got a day 8 EPS mean storm track to drop south from Boston to the Delmarva instead of the other way around like we have been seeing in recent years.
  23. bluewave
    Yeah, I think probably 3-6” on the grass in Central Park with less on NYC pavement since temps above freezing.
  24. bluewave
    The forcing hanging out further west is creating more of a Niña-like 500 mb pattern to go with the raging El Niño STJ. So instead of suppression the storm track risk is too far north with P-Type issues. That why models now have a bunch of storm tracks racing through the Great Lakes through New England.
  25. bluewave
    The Gulf Stream is driven by the earths rotation. This is a great video on the differences between the AMOC and Gulf Stream. Even the more sophisticated models that try to model an AMOC slowdown or collapse aren’t very realistic since they lack numerous elements of the actual climate system.
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