bluewave

Even Islip didn’t drop below 17° which is a first. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2023-2024 17 10 2 2001-2002 15 0 - 1997-1998 15 0 3 2020-2021 13 0 - 2019-2020 13 0 4 2009-2010 12 0 - 2005-2006 12 0 5 2011-2012 10 0 - 2007-2008 10 0

Criticism of these recent AMOC model studies from the leading experts in Sweden. Researchers: "Stop sounding the alarm about the Gulf Stream!" PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 17, 2024 Earlier alarms that the Gulf Stream may be about to collapse - with an extreme cooling in Sweden, among others as a result - are now being criticized by several of Sweden's leading experts in the field. - I was a bit shocked, says climate scientist Frederik Schenk. Last week there was a new Dutch study on the Gulf Stream that made big headlines around the world. It described what could happen if the large and important AMOC ocean current system, of which the Gulf Stream is a part, collapses. A collapse could have devastating consequences for the climate, and the Dutch researchers described an extreme and rapid cooling in Sweden. "Outright misleading" Now several of Sweden's leading researchers are criticizing some of the conclusions. Not least because the latest study is a model. - To hastily draw conclusions based on isolated observations, indirect reconstructions or model simulations is not only risky, it is downright misleading, says Léon Chafik, oceanographer and climate scientist at Stockholm University. His and his colleagues' research on the Nordic branch of the Gulf Stream instead shows that it is strengthened in a warmer world . - It may indicate a potential resilience of the Gulf Stream that has not been noticed before. "I was a little shocked" Frederik Schenk at the Bolin Center for Climate Research also reacted to the findings. - Not least the extreme temperature difference surprised. This is not what previous studies have shown. The researchers in Utrecht have not included global warming, which is likely to moderate cooling, in their model. And there are studies that indicate that the warming we have had and will have would likely completely trump a cooling in northern Europe in the long run. This does not mean that a systemic collapse of the ocean currents would not be serious. However, the Earth's southern hemisphere is not expected to cool down, but on the contrary to become significantly hotter, which could threaten both the Amazon and some of the world's most populous areas south of the equator in completely different ways.

My guess is that the unusually active MJO 2-7 for such a strong El Niño combined with the record Atlantic SSTs for a much stronger Eastern ridge than usual in an El Niño. Notice how much higher the heights were in the East compared to the Euro seasonal forecast. The -PDO background could also have given an assist.

The first 5 years of the 2020s are averaging less than half the snowfall of the 2010s. Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.0 3.3 4.7 8.8 0.4 T 17.1 2023-2024 0.0 T T 3.1 9.1 M M 12.2 2022-2023 0.0 T 0.1 T 2.0 0.6 0.0 2.7 2021-2022 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.6 2.3 0.8 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 T 0.0 11.9 3.2 30.6 T 0.0 45.7 2019-2020 0.0 T 4.2 2.7 T T T 6.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 1.0 1.3 9.8 12.9 15.7 2.2 0.1 43.1 2013-2014 0.0 T 9.4 20.8 30.3 0.2 0.4 61.1 2012-2013 0.0 6.6 1.9 1.4 10.8 8.8 0.0 29.5 2011-2012 5.2 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.8 2010-2011 0.0 T 24.5 37.4 4.1 2.2 T 68.2 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 13.3 1.7 32.9 T 0.0 47.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T T 3.3 6.8 9.9 0.5 T 20.4 2023-2024 0.0 T T 5.5 10.1 M M 15.6 2022-2023 0.0 T 0.8 T 4.1 T 0.0 4.9 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 20.8 4.7 2.0 0.0 27.7 2020-2021 T T 10.0 3.1 30.7 0.0 0.0 43.8 2019-2020 0.0 T 5.5 4.6 T T T 10.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.8 1.8 8.8 15.0 17.3 3.4 0.0 47.2 2013-2014 0.0 0.1 10.9 13.4 32.1 0.8 0.1 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 8.4 7.8 4.7 30.4 13.0 0.0 64.3 2011-2012 4.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 2.2 T T 13.6 2010-2011 0.0 0.4 12.0 42.0 5.0 3.2 T 62.6 2009-2010 T 0.0 13.4 7.7 16.9 0.1 T 38.1

The 50s and the 80s were much colder than the last 9 winter average temperatures. The years in that era with below average snowfall were mostly the result of drier winter patterns and unfavorable storm tracks. 72-73 was actually a colder than average winter by todays standards. But the storm tracks were very unfavorable for snow here. It was cold enough for portions of the Southeast into Mid-Atlantic to have one of their greatest snowstorms of all time that winter. The increase in moisture and amazing storm tracks actually boosted our winter snowfall from 02-03 to 17-18. Those two factors were masking the warming process that was continuing. So the snowier winters made people pay less attention to winters like 01-02, the first half of January 2005, the record warm January 2006, and 70° warmth in January 2007. Then we had the 11-12 winter followed by the very warm start to 12-13 sandwiched in between the phenomenal 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15 cold and snowy winters. Now that the warming picked up after the historic December 15 +13.3 departure, it has resulted in 5 out of the last 6 winters with below average snowfall. We have been seeing more frequent combinations of both unfavorable tracks and warmth cutting down on our snowfall potential. When we do get finally get a favorable track like last week, we lost a portion of the snow potential to lower ratios and melting due to the warmth. You are correct that it will take a while to finally determine if a longer term snowfall decline is underway. But my guess is that the 2010s will mark the peak decadal snowfall for our modern era. And that the beginning of a snowfall decline commenced during the 18-19 season. Now this doesn’t mean we still won’t have above normal snowfall along the way in future winters like in the 20-21 season. But that over time into the future decades the seasonal snowfall averages will be on a down trend from the 2010s peak. At some point the warming will probably result in our new 30 year averages dipping below 20”. Instead of just reverting to the long term mean around 25” which was common before the 2010s.

The 50s and 80s were much colder than the present era. Less snowy winters in those years were still cold by todays standards. They were mostly the result of unfavorable storm tracks. This is the first time we are getting a combination of too warm for snow for numerous storm occasions plus unfavorable tracks.

It makes sense that the more southern areas have lost the most snow since they have passed warming thresholds faster for snowfall accumulation.

They would make the trip from 30 Rock over to Central Park to take the snowfall measurements before 1993. https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/100-years-of-weather-observations-at-belvedere-castle-in-central-park#:~:text=On January 1%2C 1920 the,communications with the primary office. The lack of space for weather observing equipment in Rockefeller Plaza resulted in the decision to make the Central Park observing site the official NYC observation and, on January 1, 1961 it became such. References from this point out for climatological records in New York City referenced the Park, not the Weather Bureau office in Lower Manhattan. In addition, the observation was automated, with the exception of sky cover and snowfall, and remoted to a display at 30 Rockefeller Plaza. Snow observations were taken by staff from the Weather Bureau who made the trek through the snow to Central Park to measure it.

That’s why Lonnie Quinn got the intermediate measurement which was higher. Add this up over a complete season and we can see how the official totals at NYC are lower than the surrounding stations. It’s also how that artificial under 1” record ran so long only at NYC and not any other local stations. https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/biggest-snow-accumulation-totals-around-n-y-n-j-and-conn/ Central Park: 3.2 inches officially, 3.9 inches as measured by CBS New York's Lonnie Quinn Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 1 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 701 2024-01-15 2 383 1998-03-21 3 381 1955-02-01 Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 1 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 642 1973-12-16 2 386 1992-03-18 3 383 1998-03-21 4 378 2023-02-26 Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 1 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 661 1973-12-15 2 378 2023-02-26 3 363 1955-01-14 4 351 1992-02-12 Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 1 for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 660 1974-01-03 2 378 2023-02-26 3 363 1989-01-05

I am glad your area was able to really cash in on this jet stream assist creating a great left from exit region.

They have pretty much been in the same boat as us with only 1 snowfall season out of the last 6 with above normal snowfall.

Boston is doing really poorly so far compared to their total seasonal average and Philly much better. seasonal snowfall so far vs average seasonal snowfall Boston….9.7……49.2 Philly…….11.2…..23.1

An asterisk will have to go next to the NYC snowfall measurements since they are our only major station still below 10” on the season. Our other major stations are all above 10”. The low snowfall measurements are the winter version of the low high temperatures during the warm season due to the vegetation too close to the ASOS creating deep shade that wasn’t there before the 90s. We generally did the best we could this season with the continuing record warmth and hostile Pacific patterns. While we are on track for another below normal snowfall season, it won’t be as bad a last year. Seasonal snowfall so far vs the seasonal average EWR…12.2….31.5 NYC….7.5*….29.8 LGA….10.5….29.8 JFK…..12.8….25.9 ISP…….10.9….31.8 BDR…..15.6….33.6

Yeah, pretty ridiculous heat in that part of the world keeps reloading the forcing leading to more jet extensions and warmth for us.

That squall just gave me my heaviest snow rate here just east of KHVN for the whole event.

Yeah, the rates under that band were really impressive.

This is the first time on record that ISP hasn’t dropped below 17° by February 17th. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Feb 17 Missing Count 1 2024-02-17 17 1 2 2002-02-17 15 0 - 1998-02-17 15 0 3 2021-02-17 13 0 - 2020-02-17 13 0 4 2010-02-17 12 0 - 2006-02-17 12 0 5 2012-02-17 10 0 - 2008-02-17 10 0

The 0z SPC HREF snowfall max did a nice job with the 8-10” snowfall forecast around Staten Island . But the actual falloff in snowfall to the north was more extreme. This may be the first chance we have had to use this model for a mesoscale snow event. It has done very well in recent years with the numerous flash flood events around the area.

It’s really great to see your area score a top 10 snowiest day for the month of February. Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date 1 19.8 2006-02-12 2 19.0 1961-02-04 3 17.9 1983-02-12 4 13.2 1978-02-07 5 13.0 2003-02-17 - 13.0 1967-02-07 - 13.0 1902-02-17 6 11.5 2010-02-11 7 11.0 2024-02-17 - 11.0 1926-02-10 8 10.5 1995-02-04 9 10.1 1987-02-23 10 10.0 1907-02-04 - 10.0 1899-02-13

This may be the first time when New Brunswick was 10”+ and both Philly and NYC stayed under 4”.

A sting jet is in the lower atmosphere right behind a very deep surface low. This is the upper jet. The front left sector gets some great lift.

Nice assist from 200KT+ jet max.

Should be an active hurricane season so the exact tracks will be important with so much SST rocket fuel heading into the season and a developing La Niña.

The SPC HREF max had the right idea with the 8-10” forecast even though the cutoff north of Staten Island to the South Shore was sharper.

One of the better spots for this storm. 0655 AM Snow Coney Island 40.59N 73.99W 02/17/2024 M9.9 inch Kings NY Trained Spotter