bluewave

I think the silver lining is that we haven’t had a legit drought here since 2001-2002 when NYC had actual water restrictions around D3. So chances are this is more of a dry vegetation issue like we have seen in recent years. I know D0 to D2 has resulted in brown lawns periodically. But more often than not, these periods ended with extremes in rainfall which were more impressive than the dry periods which came before them. I guess the big question now is specifically how much heat and dryer conditions will come before any shift to wetter? In any event a string of 90°+ days with 100°days thrown into the mix can really drop the soil moisture near the surface. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0432 PM EDT FRI JUN 21 2024 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 1953. RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1931 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

98° at the NY micronet station in Corona, Queens and 97° in Astoria. https://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Corona Temp: 98°F Astoria Temp: 97°F

Most of the guidance focuses the convection next few weeks north of I-78. So maybe scattered convection from time to time around the drier areas of Central NJ. Probably have to be patient for a reversal of this recent dry vegetation stretch.

Already up to 90° at the Brownsville micronet in Brooklyn with numerous 89° readings at the surrounding stations.

Islip is currently in 1st place and Newark in 2nd. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-06-20 70.4 0 - 2008-06-20 70.4 0 2 1999-06-20 70.3 0 - 1994-06-20 70.3 0 - 1984-06-20 70.3 0 3 1973-06-20 70.1 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1994-06-20 77.1 0 2 2024-06-20 75.6 0 3 1984-06-20 75.3 0 4 1973-06-20 75.2 0 5 2021-06-20 74.8 0

Yeah, it looks like the warm spots today are in the 98° to 100° range today with the highest temperatures possible on Sunday. Still looking like a very strong Ambrose Jet event on Sunday with 30 to 40 mph gusts at the South Shore beaches.

With temperatures already near 80° at 7am, the warm spots in NJ around Newark and Harrison have a shot at their first 100° of season today like the guidance indicates.

The high of 97° at Newark beat the guidance by a few degrees. More westerly flow than forecast verified. So we are back to the old pattern from the past. With increasing heat through Sunday Newark and other warm spots in NJ should get closer 100° with record highs possible especially on Sunday. The record was 98° today and came up one degree short. The expansion of D0 drought conditions into NJ helped out today. Also look at the growth of drought conditions to our SW which will be the source region for the heat. The core of the heat next few days over +20C at 850 mb will go directly through the area instead of over the top like last few days. https://threadex.rcc-acis.org Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2024-06-19DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 6/20 98 in 2012 97 in 2024 97in 1953 6/21 100 in 1953 99 in 2012 99 in 1949 6/22 101 in 1988 97 in 1943 96 in 2012 6/23 97 in 1965 94 in 1994 93 in 2015+

First 95° of the season for the NYC boroughs at the Corona micronet station. https://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc

Yeah, I observed it for years living in Long Beach from the 70s into 00s. But I never knew it had a specific name until the papers became available online after the internet began. I lived not far from East Broadway and would often have blowing sand down my street as the afternoon progressed. This made it difficult at times getting lunch at the snack shop located on the beach with all the blowing sand. There were always cars parked near the beach that would be covered in sand. https://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_144401.htm

The Ambrose Jet usually peaks from around 4-7 pm.

The beaches are going to be packed this weekend. Parts of NJ will get close to 100° with only 70s for the South Shore of Long Island beaches. This will create one of our strongest Ambrose Jet events for late June with gusts to around 40 mph or maybe higher due to the steep temperature differential. So my guess is that the lifeguards may have to really limit access to swimming due to the dangerous rip currents and very rough surf. I can remember days like this growing up in Long Beach when you would get sandblasted walking onto the beach and boardwalk.

I guess we are lucky that our summers since the 15-16 super El Niño haven’t had the kind of warmth we had during the winters. Beating a monthly maximum temperature by 4° like we did in February 2018 when Newark hit 80° during July would equate to 112°. Most people off this forum have been enjoying the lower winter heating demand. But I am not sure how well our grid would handle temperatures above 110°. They would probably have to go into rolling brown out mode in order to keep the grid up.

Yeah, the first two 80° minimums on record for BTV since 2018. Beating the previous record by 2°. That would be the equivalent of LGA having two 88° minimums over this period. Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 80 0 - 2018 80 0 2 2001 78 0 - 1988 78 0 - 1923 78 0 - 1901 78 22 - 1896 78 0 - 1893 78 5 3 2022 77 0 - 2005 77 0 - 1995 77 0 - 1952 77 0

The Euro has had an unrealistic warm bias recently and the GFS has been doing much better. So the GFS now has the potential for 100° heat in NJ on Sunday as the heatwave peaks. We have seen this frequently in recent years with the highest readings starting out to our north like we are seeing now. As the ridge begins to weaken we usually see our warmest temperatures since this allows more of a deep SW flow instead of SSE like recent days. Could also be a very strong Ambrose Jet for the beach goers on Sunday due to the big temperature gradient between NJ and Long Island.

It looks like Upton may have tied the all-time maximum 500mb height record of 598 dam set back in July 2013. But the orientation of the ridge axis this time allowed the warmest readings to go to the north of our area. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimov2/ Max Values07/14/2013 (12Z)5980 m06/29/2021 (12Z)5970 m07/05/2018 (12Z)5970 m07/04/2018 (12Z)5970 m07/15/2013 (12Z)5970 m08/28/1977 (12Z)5967 m08/01/1975 (12Z)5964 m

No surprises here as the warmth following the peak of the El Nino is lingering longer than previous events just like the temperature rise last year began earlier.

They just tied their al-time highest June dew point of 74°. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=155&network=ME_ASOS&zstation=CAR&var=max_dwpf&w=all&threshold=100&hour=12&sdate=0101&edate=1231&month=jun&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

I am not sure if any of the current forecasters are even aware of the issue. The errors with the weather data from the park began to really become obvious back in the early 2000s. That’s when most of the media attention was focused on it. The NWS left 30 Rock back in 1993 and the new Central Park ASOS went online around 1995. So the nearly all the forecasters familiar with the more reliable NYC readings before the 1990s change have already retired. I met a few of the forecast crew that were active in the 1970s and 1980s.They really made sure the readings from the park were reliable since they would frequently go over there to take snowfall measurements and monitor the temperature readings. The MIC back into those days commented that they didn’t like to substitute LGA temperatures when the park equipment was vandalized at time since it was cooler than NYC in the summer. When I was growing up before the tree growth Central Park was often near or at the top for high temperatures during the big heatwaves like in July 1977. Monthly Data for July 1977 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 103 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 102 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 102 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 101 NY WEST POINT COOP 101 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 101 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 100 NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 100 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 100 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 100 NY MARYKNOLL COOP 100 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 100 NY SCARSDALE COOP 100 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 100 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 100 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 99 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 99

The strongest heat missed to our north yesterday with Manchester, NH reaching a record high of 97°. Manchester made it to 97° 3 times since 1999 from June 1st to June 18th. The other times Newark reached to 97° to 99° instead of just 92° yesterday. So this ridge orientation allowing onshore flow to make it to Newark with such record heat in New Hampshire is unusual. It’s becoming more common since we started seeing such strong high pressure to the east of New England with these summer heatwaves back around 2018. 6-18-24 Manchester…97°…..Newark….92° 6-12-17 Manchester…97°…..Newark…97° 6-10-08 Manchester….100°….Newark….99° 6-7-99 Manchester….97°……Newark….99°

Yes. Many stations on Long Island had more 90° days back in 2006. Data for January 1, 2006 through December 31, 2006 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 30 NJ HARRISON COOP 30 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 30 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 29 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 27 NJ CRANFORD COOP 24 NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 24 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 22 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 22 NY BRONX COOP 21 CT DANBURY COOP 20 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 18 NY WEST POINT COOP 18 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 16 NY MINEOLA COOP 16 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 15 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 13 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 13 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 12 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 12 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 11 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 11 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 11 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 10 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 10 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 9 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 9 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 9 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 8 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 8 NY OCEANSIDE COOP 8 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 8 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 8 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 8 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 8 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 8 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 7 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 6 NY CENTERPORT COOP 6 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 6 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 6

There were several news reports in the local media back around 2003 when non NWS forecasters were noticing how much Central Park started to deviate from past performance. They interviewed the MIC at the NWS at Upton and he basically told them he knew that the readings at the park wouldn’t be as reliable but settled for it since the other option offered to them was to close down the Central Park station. So they chose to live with inaccurate temperatures and other measurements rather than retire the station after the NWS moved out to Upton in 1993. So the media lost interest in the temperature issue since then which has only grown worse with further tree and vegetation growth close into the sensor. But to Lonnie’s credit he went there and measured the snowfall himself during the storm last winter and got the higher total since the conservancy measured too late and the snow settled. Maybe one of these days an enterprising journalist will explore the temperature issues when the trees are fully leafed out. The NWS probably doesn’t want to touch this issue after all this time since it could call into question the reliability of the weather readings from the biggest city in the nation.

Record heat to our NW today.