bluewave

This was probably our windiest week In a while. Several 50-60 mph gusts with this event. ...ANZ330... Stongington Outer Br 60 249 PM 1/14 WXFLOW Newark Airport 51 420 PM 1/14 ASOS Bayville 57 451 PM 1/14 WXFLOW Bellmore 56 135 PM 1/14 Mesonet Eatons Neck 57 402 PM 1/14 WXFLOW

54 mph seems to be the peak gust so far on Long Island. Matinecock Pt N/A 39 N/A N/A SW44G54

My favorite temperature for long distance bike riding back on the Long Beach boardwalk was the 70s. My personal record was a 40 mile ride. Once the temperature got over 90° or under 20° my maximum distance would fall to around 5 miles.

I actually enjoyed the 0° with 40 mph gusts on the LB boardwalk in Jan 85 more than the 100° with 75° dewpoint in the same spot in July 99.° In the summer heat you can only take off so many clothes but in the winter you can layer up quite a bit.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm02052016 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 535 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016 BETHPAGE 11.5 110 PM 2/05 PUBLIC NORTH BELLMORE 11.3 1249 PM 2/05 SOCIAL MEDIA EAST HILLS 11.0 1230 PM 2/05 PUBLIC PLAINVIEW 10.5 110 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER LEVITTOWN 10.2 1131 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER NORTH MERRICK 10.0 200 PM 2/05 PUBLIC TERRYVILLE 12.0 248 PM 2/05 PUBLIC SETAUKET 12.0 100 PM 2/05 NWS EMPLOYEE SAINT JAMES 11.9 110 PM 2/05 PUBLIC FARMINGVILLE 11.2 130 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER SELDEN 11.0 145 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER SOUTH HUNTINGTON 11.0 1130 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER PORT JEFFERSON 11.0 215 PM 2/05 PUBLIC YAPHANK 11.0 315 PM 2/05 PUBLIC HAUPPAUGE 10.5 130 PM 2/05 NWS EMPLOYEE MILLER PLACE 10.5 130 PM 2/05 PUBLIC HOLTSVILLE 10.0 300 PM 2/05 AMATEUR RADIO HUNTINGTON 10.0 130 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER

We have much higher forecast skill with cutters beyond 3-5 days like the two we just had. Since NYC will usually get mostly rain whether the low cuts 50 miles or 500 miles to the west. But a storm tracking within 50 miles east to 500 miles east of NYC will have a much different outcome. Anything from mixing, perfect benchmark snowstorm track, or complete suppression. I would love it if all the global and meso modeling centers kept specific model skill scores for East Coast storm tracks. Unfortunately, these hemispheric skill scores don’t always tell the story about how good the model is doing on East Coast storm tracks. We have seen periods when the CMC nailed a snowstorm forecast beyond 5 days like 1-31-21. Other times when the UKMET did great like the follow up storm after the January the 2016 blizzard. Then we have the Euro which was too far west with the January 2015 blizzard. And too suppressed with the 2016 blizzard. The Euro did a amazing with NEMO. Often times we have to wait until we get to within the NAM and RGEMs range to figure out the exact track and rain-snow line for NYC.

I don’t look at models beyond 24-72 hrs for specific snowfall output. That is one of the lowest skill parameters longer range for models. I wasn’t favoring the CMC or any other model for this system. Don’t mistake me discussing what x or y model says as an endorsement of that model in a model discussion thread.

I look at all the model guidance and don’t have any favorites.

We could have done it if the epic 33 day snowy period when Newark got over 60” in 10-11 would have lasted longer.

NYC Metro was one of the few areas in the DC to Boston big city corridor that couldn’t set a new all-time seasonal snowfall record during the 2010 to 2018 period. Time Series Summary for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2009-2010 56.1 0 2 1898-1899 54.4 0 3 1904-1905 46.8 0 4 1921-1922 46.5 0 5 1995-1996 46.0 0 - 1908-1909 46.0 0 Time Series Summary for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2009-2010 77.0 0 2 1995-1996 62.5 1 3 2002-2003 58.1 0 4 1963-1964 51.8 0 5 1898-1899 51.1 0 Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2009-2010 78.7 0 2 2013-2014 68.0 0 3 1995-1996 65.5 0 4 1898-1899 55.4 0 5 1977-1978 54.9 0 Time Series Summary for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1995-1996 75.6 0 2 1947-1948 63.9 0 3 2010-2011 61.9 0 4 1922-1923 60.4 0 5 1872-1873 60.2 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2014-2015 110.6 0 2 1995-1996 107.6 0 3 1993-1994 96.3 0 4 1947-1948 89.2 0 5 2004-2005 86.6 0

So far the PACNW wins the prize for most impressive Arctic cold record in the US this Arctic outbreak.

If the block in 09-10 was a little weaker, than NYC could have challenged 95-96. Data for October 1, 2009 through April 30, 2010 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall VINELAND 3.5 NW CoCoRaHS 91.3 WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 80.8 HAMMONTON 3.3 WSW CoCoRaHS 79.6 FRANKLIN TWP 2.7 W CoCoRaHS 79.0 TOMS RIVER COOP 76.0

I think that first storm was suppressed due to the confluence and overpowering -5 SD -AO. There really wasn’t much Arctic air around in Fenruary 2010. NYC only dropped to 17 which is pretty mild for February minimum temperature standards for us. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 3 0 2 2022 16 0 3 2021 17 0 4 2020 14 0 5 2019 11 0 6 2018 16 0 7 2017 19 0 8 2016 -1 0 9 2015 2 0 10 2014 9 0 11 2013 17 0 12 2012 20 0 13 2011 15 0 14 2010 17

We always want Arctic air nearby to guard against mixing issues near the coast and for the retention of snowpack once the storm is past. Examples of single digit temperatures and double digit snowfall would be 1-4-18, 2-17-03, and 1-7-96. That’s not to say we can get great snowstorms with the right track and just cold enough. We have had plenty of those over the last decade. But Arctic air nearby is a nice insurance policy to have especially near the coast. It’s good to have but not always necessary. I personally don’t mind a great snowstorm that melts in a few days. But I know there are many here that don’t like that.

It’s easier to do temperature longer range than snow since snowfall forecasts aren’t reliable until we get to the under 72 hr mark. With the record Arctic outbreak to our west, we would be much colder this week if the flow wasn’t crossing the record warm Great Lakes. But highs near 32° in NYC and lows around 20° will feel much colder this week with how warm it has been. The wildcard for the forecast will be what happens with the storm later in the week. I will leave that to the shorter term model forecasts. But if we can lay down some snow cover and get a NNW cold air drain down the Hudson Valley, then NYC has a shot at dipping below 15° or maybe even 10° before we warm back up again later in the month.

NYC currently running +6.3 for the first 2 weeks of January. This is followed by colder temperatures this week. Then another warm up to close out January. So the month should finish solidly above normal.

Unprecedented cold in Seattle for such a strong El Niño. This is the first time there with a daily high not getting above 22° with the ONI near +2.0. It’s also the the lowest max there since 1991. Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Nov 1 to Mar 31 Peak ONI 1 1950-03-31 16 -1.5 2 1969-03-31 17 +1.1 3 1989-03-31 18 -1.8 4 1991-03-31 20 +0.4 - 1965-03-31 20 -0.6 5 1956-03-31 21 -1.7 6 2024-03-31 22 +1.9

I am thinking we could mix down most of the low level LLJ to 50-60 mph or even higher in spots along the squall with the low level lapse rates near all-time steepest levels on record for this time of year.

Yeah, this one reached 14.57 ft vs 14.17 in 1978.

Highest tide on record for Portland, Maine. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Gray ME 1244 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 ...New Flood of Record at the Portland Maine Tide Gauge... At 12:06 pm...the water level at the Portland Tide gauge registered 14.57 feet MLLW. This breaks the all time record at this location of 14.17 feet MLLW set in 1978. Records at the Portland gauge extend back to 1912. Water levels will be reviewed to determine if any adjustments are necessary to this preliminary value.

8.61 ft is the 8th highest tide on record at the Battery. https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=okx&gage=batn6 Historic Crests(1) 13.88 ft on 10/29/2012(2) 10.02 ft on 09/12/1960(3) 9.70 ft on 12/11/1992(4) 9.51 ft on 08/28/2011(5) 9.12 ft on 11/25/1950(6) 8.92 ft on 03/06/1962(7) 8.73 ft on 10/31/1991(8) 8.53 ft on 03/29/1984(9) 8.51 ft on 03/14/2010(10) 8.36 ft on 03/14/1993

Looks like the highest tide at Freeport of the 2020s so far. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=01310521&legacy=1

The HRRR has unusually deep mixing with snow squalls and 50-60 mph gusts potential along the Arctic front tomorrow.

Keeping with the same winter theme of only brief cool downs between mild patterns.