bluewave
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NYC is currently in 1st place for the fewest lows of freezing or below by February 4th. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Oct 1 to Feb 4 Missing Count 1 2024-02-04 23 0 - 2016-02-04 23 0 - 2002-02-04 23 0 - 2 2012-02-04 24 0 3 2023-02-04 25 0 4 2017-02-04 26 0 - 1932-02-04 26 0 5 2007-02-04 28 0 6 1999-02-04 29 0 7 1998-02-04 32 0 8 2013-02-04 33 0 - 1983-02-04 33 0 9 1949-02-04 34 0 - 1933-02-04 34 0 10 2020-02-04 35 0 - 2006-02-04 35 0 - 1995-02-04 35 0 - 1991-02-04 35 0 - 1973-02-04 35 0
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The record low snow cover may be part of the reason the surface temperatures days 11-15 will be significantly warmer than the 850mb temperatures.
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On track for one of the warmest Jan 20th to Feb 15th periods on record for the CONUS as a whole.
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That’s why we need a strong enough ridge out West in later model runs to create enough separation between systems that a low coming into the SW doesn’t act as a kicker for a low moving off the Mid-Atlantic or Southeast coasts like is happening tomorrow.
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I am hoping we get a more prominent ridge pop up near the Rockies once we get closer to late February coupled with just cold enough and the right storm track. I put together an El Niño composite for 7 events of 4” or more in NYC from 09-10 to 15-16. This included the 09-10, 14-15 and 15-16 El Niños. This composite featured a stronger ridge out West than currently forecast. We would need the 50/50 vortex to shift further east allowing more of a trough over the Southeast US. Plus the Pacific Jet backing off just enough for a stronger ridge out West than currently forecast to allow enough storm separation so the one to the west doesn’t act as a kicker. 7 snowstorm composite in NYC of 4” or more during the 15-16, 14-15, and 09-10 El Niño’s Current forecast for late February
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Sure they will. Here is the the 2016 to 2018 composite which includes the 15-16 super El Niño. There were 9 events of 4”+ in NYC over these 3 seasons. The composite is the same with a ridge near the Baja to Rockies and not a trough. It’s possible that we could get to late February and we get a transient ridge pop near the Baja into Rockies .But that probably won’t show up until the shorter range. That would be what we would want to see. But a LR smoothed out 500 mb mean probably wouldn’t be able to have that kind of detail. 9 snowstorm composite for NYC 4”+ from 15-16 to 17-18
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NYC hasn’t had a 4”+ snow event since the Pacific became more hostile in 18-19 with a trough near the Baja. NYC has had 8 events of 4” or more since then. But hopefully the late February period turns out to be a first so NYC can finally end the under 2” streak. 8 storm 500 mb composite for NYC of 4”+ since November 2018 SW ridge into Rockies and 50/50 low to the east of Newfoundland. Forecast
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The Pacific influence has been overpowering in both La Niñas and El Niños in recent years. The trough always finds a way to sneak into the Western US whether we have a +PNA or -PNA. When there is a Southeast ridge in place the lows cut to the Lakes or hug the coast. When we don’t have a SE Ridge in place like tomorrow the lows get suppressed to our south. So there is more that can go wrong with a trough out West down to the Baja and we really need luck on our side.
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It’s mostly Pacific air under the block as the weeklies don’t look very cold into late February. Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures. So February should finish with warmer than normal departures due to the warmth into mid month. Feb 5-12 Feb 12-19 Feb 19-26
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NYC continues its record under 2” streak while Boston is closing in on its longest under 4” run. Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 2 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 735 2024-02-03 2 685 1974-01-08 3 620 1919-12-23 4 416 1914-02-13 5 406 1998-03-21 Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 711 2013-02-07 - 711 1987-01-18 2 707 2024-02-02 3 702 2003-02-06 4 686 1937-12-31 5 674 1974-01-08
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The main issue is the very active STJ coupled with a piece of the trough hanging back near the Baja. So that trough acts as a kicker and storms track to our south. Hopefully, by later in the month we can build heights more over the SW so we can get a storm or two to track far enough north into our region. But it’s uncertain when we have seen the trough getting stuck in the SW for so much of the winter. So we’ll probably have to take a wait and see approach once we get to around the Presidents Day weekend and beyond.
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February may turn out to be our driest month of winter.
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It’s a borderline super El Niño with a supercharged STJ pattern this month. So it looks like the primary storm track later this month will be to our south. But it only takes one to bump further north once we get within the 120hr period for NYC to break its 2”+ snowstorm drought.
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The NYC 10 year snowfall moving average peaked in 2018 at 38.6” while State College had its peak in 1970 at 59.2”. Black line is 10 year moving average
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Suffolk did better than ACY in 2022 but we couldn’t sustain the cold and snow for more than a month.
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Quite a snow cover extent roller coaster ride this winter across North America. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html
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Calling 2010 to 2018 peak snowfall in NYC means to me that NYC won’t be able to match a 9 season running average of 39.8” as the climate continues to warm. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.3 0.5 5.9 14.2 12.8 5.5 0.6 39.8 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9
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20-21 was a good season around NYC and Long Island. But it was no match for the best seasons from 2010 to 2018 in those locations. The storm tracks closer to the coast were too warm and tucked in with the south based block boosting heights too much east of New England. So the interior spots which were colder did much better. January 2022 was the snowiest on record at ACY, but the cold couldn’t be sustained so they only finished the season 10th snowiest. ACY couldn’t match the best seasons from 2010 to 2018.
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It’s looking more and more like 2010 to 2018 was peak snowfall for NYC. But it it wasn’t advertised ahead of time. It’s only starting to become more obvious now that we are 6 years out from that period.
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Yeah, we usually don’t find out the temperature threshold until it has already past. And there could be multiple thresholds which factor into our seasonal snowfall. One is the warming local average winter temperatures which result in declining snowfall averages over time. Another is a SST threshold in a part of the world like the MJO 4-7 regions which shift the storm tracks and lead to warmer local temperatures and lower seasonal snowfall. The record snowfall from 09-10 to 17-18 may have also been related to warming in some area of the planet which created the forcing patterns necessary for so many amazing snowfall seasons. But we may have surpassed that goldilocks snowfall zone when the 15-16 super El Niño resulted in the big jump in global temperatures. Almost like the 15-16 to 17-18 winters while warm, still had the lingering heavy snowfall pattern which seemed to emerge around 02-03 and peaked during the 2010s. Following the 17-18 winter, we have been been struggling with both warmer temperatures and unfavorable Pacific patterns leading to also unfavorable storm tracks and storm day temperatures. We did have a great 20-21 season but NYC couldn’t rival the 50”+ seasons like 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. January 22 was also a great month out on Long Island, but more disappointing around NYC to CNJ.
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The 2010s will probably be remembered as the modern golden era for NYC snowfall. 10 year NYC average snowfall 49-50 to 58-59….19.9 59-60 to 68-69….32.0 69-70 to 78-79…..22.5 79-80 to 88-89…..19.7 89-90 to 98-99….24.4 99-00 to 08-09….28.0 09-10 to 18-19……37.9 19-20 to 20-29……13.2 so far
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The black line is the 9 year moving average. It first peaked at 34.9° in 1933. Then there was a higher peak of 36.3° in 1958. It took until 1999 to exceed that at 36.4°. We are currently at 38.5° which is a full 2° warmer than any previous peak.
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It’s the first time the 9 year winter moving average temperature in NYC went over 38.0°.
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It matters to the extent that we have experienced a shift to much warmer winters with the +13 December 2015. The record warmth over the last 9 winters is unprecedented in our records. The winter current average of 38.6° is normal for parts of Virginia. We have never had a 9 winter average anywhere close to this warm before. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season Mean 41.0 35.7 39.1 38.6 2023-2024 44.6 37.0 40.8 2022-2023 38.5 43.5 41.1 41.0 2021-2022 43.8 30.3 37.3 37.1 2020-2021 39.2 34.8 34.2 36.1 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.1 39.2 2018-2019 40.1 32.5 36.2 36.3 2017-2018 35.0 31.7 42.0 36.2 2016-2017 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.3 2015-2016 50.8 34.5 37.7 41.0
