bluewave
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NYC hasn’t been able to get higher than 98° since 2014. Data for January 1, 2014 through July 13, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 102 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 101 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 101 NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 100 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 100 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 99 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 99 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 99 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 99 NY WEST POINT COOP 99 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 99 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 98
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That was the only time we had low 80s dew points with 100° temperatures. They did a study on it. The corn sweat got trapped under a strong low level inversion leading to the record high dew points and heat indices. https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/bams/77/7/1520-0477_1996_077_1507_tjhwit_2_0_co_2.pdf
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The 128° heat index at Newark on 7-15-95 is still the highest on record there.
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Yeah, this was one of my heavier hourly totals since moving up here last August at .84 in an hour. But last September was my heaviest with 1.53 in under an hour. Record wet pattern in CT since last July.
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With the 100° heat in the forecast for the coming week, this could be the first time we had 100° heat in June and July since 2011. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2021 103 97 99 103 2011 102 108 98 108 1994 102 99 95 102 1993 102 105 100 105 1952 102 98 92 102 1943 102 95 97 102 1988 101 101 99 101 1966 101 105 95 105 2024 100 94 M 100 1959 100 93 96 100 1953 100 99 102 102 1934 100 98 90 100
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Probably starting to get some roadway flooding around the metro with 1-2 inches of rain in a short time. Manhattan mesonet 3h Precip: 1.72″
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This presentation from 2014 showed how some of the climate models were forecasting these lower summer pressures over the Arctic. This has been the pattern we have seen since 2013. Much different from the 2007 to 2012 era. It’s one of the reasons that the rate of sea ice decline slowed during 2013 to 2023 relative to 2007 to 2012.
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1.52” in the last hour at the Manhattan mesonet. https://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc
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Classic case of the MJO 8-2 in December going into 4-6 in January effectively ending the winter on January 1st.
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Rain on weekend theme continues since March 1st as the record 603 dam WAR weakened enough since yesterday to allow the heavier rains into NYC and Long Island.
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The heaviest for places like LI and Southern CT will probably be from tonight into tomorrow.
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https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/environmental-modeling-center/fv3-convective-allowing-forecast-system NAM development was frozen after the March 2017 upgrade, and RAP/HRRR development with the WRF-ARW model will cease after the RAPv5/HRRRv4 upgrade in 2020. However, operational execution of these modeling and associated DA systems will continue until comparable FV3-based systems are able to give similar performance.
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Woodbine, NJ has been the rainfall leader across the area since June 30th with 5.26” for this event so far and a total of 11.69”.
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I think we are talking about such enormous amounts of upper ocean heat that even the 4th most active WPAC typhoon season in 2015 by ACE at 462 ACE 26/20/09 couldn’t reduce the SST departures much over the WPAC. We did see some relative cooling east of the Philippines. But area in the key MJO 5 area warmed leading to the record warmth and MJO 5 in December 2015 for a super El Niño.
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New daily record high PWAT at OKX of 2.39 is 7th highest measured value. The environment across the region is extremely supportive of heavy rainfall, with PWs measured by morning U/A sounding reaching 2 to 2.3 inches (2.39 inches, a daily record at OKX) with coincident MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Max Values 08/19/1955 (03Z)2.62 in09/07/2008 (00Z)2.47 in07/23/2018 (12Z)2.45 in07/18/2019 (12Z)2.44 in08/11/2016 (12Z)2.41 in08/05/2010 (12Z)2.41 in08/19/2021 (12Z)2.40 in08/12/2016 (12Z)2.40 in07/18/2005 (12Z)2.40 in 07/12/2024(12z)2.39 in08/13/2016 (00Z)2.38 in
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Yeah, the hi res GFS has 95° to 100° heat potential from Huntington to Commack. But we’ll need to get close to full sun to have a shot at those temperatures. Probably have to wait another day or two to see what models come up with on sky conditions.
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We will have to rely on fronts and high dew point convection for our rainfall into late July as the tropics go quiet for a while.
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I think we are going to need a mismatch along the lines of Jan 22 in order to avoid our first 3 consecutive +4 to +5 winters around NYC. NYC Feb 24…+4.2 Jan 24..+3.3 Dec 23..+5.5 …………..+4.3 Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0
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Looks we will get another chance for decent rains with the cold front as the next heatwave peaks by Wednesday into Thursday.
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Parts of Australia have been the only region of the Pacific basin to have experienced colder temperatures recently and now they are getting a rare SSW over Antarctica.
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The GFS has 100° heat potential early next week before we get a relaxation of the heat for a bit.
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Yeah, on top of that there has been a near record low number of typhoons so subsidence continues to warm this seas.
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Has really kept the high temperatures in check this month at JFK wit the maxes running 0.0 and the mins +1.5.
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Yeah, it’s one of the reasons that the 2012 extent minimum record has endured for so long. These strong reverse dipole summer patterns have become more frequent during the post 2007-2012 record dipole era. The other has been the much thinner pack making new records more difficult to achieve. Plus the lack of major May preconditioning like we saw in 2012 and 2020. Judah Cohen recently commented on this more favorable pattern for sea ice retention. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/ I do want to once again conclude with the PCHs this summer. I really don’t know what to make of the PCH plot as shown in Figure 11 once again this week, which looks very strange to me. To highlight how bizarre it has been I include in Figure iii the same plot from one year ago. This plot of episodic warming or what I like to desribe as “pulsing red”of tropospheric PCHs with cold stratospehric PCHs that occasionally descend to the surface makes much more physical sense to me. Larger amounts of greeenhouse gases in the polar stratosphere should result in cooling of the polar stratosphere punctuated by warming when upwelling wave energy is absorbed and thus warms the polar stratosphere but limited to the winter months but in particular January and February. The warm PCHs in the stratosphere I assume have the potential to descend to the surface and increase high latitude blocking resutling in cooler temperatures in the Eastern US and Northern Europe, yet for the most part this has not happened and it is looking less likely to ocuur for a significant aount of time this summer. This pattern or low pressure over the Central Arctic surrounded by high pressure across the mid-latitudes, which results in a quasi zonal flow is favorable for preserving Arctic sea ice. We can see in Figure iv that sea ice extent is comparable to the best two summers and I would expect the trends to continue. Arctic sea ice is tracking below normal and should continue right through the September minimum. However, the possibility of a new record low sea ice minimum is looking less and less likely.
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The Euro has a pretty slow frontal passage with the record WAR so convection lingers into the afternoon.
