bluewave

Maybe the models backing off a little bit on the Arctic press close to the coast will leave us some room this week for a GFS CMC blend for some follow up snows Tuesday through Friday.

The was actually the strongest 50/50 low at 500mb on record going back to 1950 just to the east of New England in early to mid-January. It finally relaxed enough and we are getting the storm today into tonight. Closer to a gradient pattern which we really haven’t seen in a while.

The RGEM usually moves in step with what the GEM global does.

Why?

The Euro is actually a little further west than the CMC at 0z. The CMC has 6”+ and Euro 4”+ jackpot along those favored North Shore areas in Northern Nassau and NW Suffolk. The SPC HREF has a 6”+ potential in these areas also.

Yeah, thats why I see more and more people with those little booties for their dogs.

Yeah, the most anomalous cold and snow relative to the means are south of us this month.

At least we haven’t had any major ice storms recently which were more common from the 70s into early 90s. The last more significant ones I remember from LB were February 07 and 11. But nothing like the ice storms in Jan 78 and 94.

Yeah, there are going to have to heavily treat all the surfaces with the falling temperatures during and after the storm. In recent years the trucks driving on the major roads have kicked up mini dust storms with all the salt at times. But it’s much more preferable to an untreated flash freeze like we got In January 1986.

If you thought all the salt on the roads was bad recently just wait until the 4”+ in many spots freezes solid tomorrow night with rapidly falling temps into the teens.

December 88 had that great Norlun through Suffolk into CT and 90-91 had several moderate events. Monthly Data for December 1988 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 11.0 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 10.4 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 8.0 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 7.5 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 7.0 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 7.0 NY DIX HILLS COOP 6.5

We still got a bunch of these moderate events the 70s and 80s. But the period in the late 90s was particularly lacking. The March 99 wet snowstorm that broke all those sycamore branches in Long Beach was the best of that era.

While it was still a bit suppressed, not nearly as much as the regular Euro.

That was the case with this event. Euro came over 500 miles NW along with the GFS. Plus the RGEM shifted about 50-100 miles east.

1895 is their benchmark storm.

The SPC HREF likes your area of Nassau out to NW Suffolk the best. Very similar to growing up in LB from the 70s to 90s. But in recent decades the South Shore has scored more wins than in the old days.

I fully explained it in the other thread if you go back and read the posts.

Again, It was originally showing next to nothing for most of the area since it was originally suppressed to the south. So now that it’s coming late to the party doesn’t make it consistent. Still several pieces of guidance further west than the Euro.

Again, the Euro has been the most suppressed with this event out of all the guidance.

Again, models have been all over the place with snowfall amounts and the placement of those amounts. You can see why posters west of I-95 would be hesitant to give the Euro high marks based on this original suppression forecast and under 1”. You can go back to 2010 and see how models usually don’t have much of a clue on snowfall beyond a day or two. Those headline model skill scores really don’t apply to East Coast storm tracks. We can remember how suppressed the Euro was for January 2016 and the actual totals were more than double what the Euro had a day before. Remember how some people didn’t want to believe the amped up NAM which was correct. Or when the Euro had an historic NYC snowfall in January 2015 but a wide miss with heavier totals east. But you are correct in a sense that models usually don’t completely miss storms. Unless we go back to January 2000. But P-types and amounts are usually in play sometimes right up to nowcast time. Posters west of NYC hesitant to give the Euro high scores on this original Euro first guess

But the models are seldom correct with snow amounts beyond a day or two. So it’s not worth it to get overly invested until much closer in. Since that type of IMBY snow longer range forecasting often leads to disappointment. Unless we go back to 2010-2018 when every snowstorm seemed to overperform.

We track low placement from 5 days out and are not concerned with P-Types that early. The Euro and GFS started out very suppressed well Southeast of the Benchmark. So the CMC can shift 60-100 miles east next few runs and still win on storm track. Snow amounts are always the last thing we are concerned about since model skill beyond a few days has always been very low here.

The GFS originally had a fish storm and now has come back to the west. When we evaluate storm tracks nobody is taking P-Types from 5 days out or longer verbatim. The Euro and EPS has been consistently to the east side of the model envelope. So if anything the GFS moved towards the CMC. The CMC can shift another 30-40 miles east and still end up closer in track than the Euro original had.

The Euro has been the SE outlier on this event further east than the GEM, GFS and several mesos. Notice how every model has been NW of the Euro and EPS. The 12z CMC is still closer to the coast.

Every new East Coast event starts a new record. Since different models do better or worse depending on the storm. Each storm can have one model which does better than others. That being said, it’s just one piece of guidance that gets factored in. Unfortunately, those general model skill scores usually don’t hold for East Coast storms.