bluewave

Very pretty postcard scene now in Central Park.

Streets are wet as expected but snow starting to accumulate on the grass in Central Park. https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/columbuscircle/?cam=columbus_circle

I am glad that we finally got a day 8 EPS mean storm track to drop south from Boston to the Delmarva instead of the other way around like we have been seeing in recent years.

Yeah, I think probably 3-6” on the grass in Central Park with less on NYC pavement since temps above freezing.

The forcing hanging out further west is creating more of a Niña-like 500 mb pattern to go with the raging El Niño STJ. So instead of suppression the storm track risk is too far north with P-Type issues. That why models now have a bunch of storm tracks racing through the Great Lakes through New England.

The Gulf Stream is driven by the earths rotation. This is a great video on the differences between the AMOC and Gulf Stream. Even the more sophisticated models that try to model an AMOC slowdown or collapse aren’t very realistic since they lack numerous elements of the actual climate system.

Yeah, we are going to need some improvements the rest of the season in order to avoid the all-time lowest 2 consecutive season snowfall in NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2024-04-30 2.3 80 2023-04-30 2.3 0 Previous lowest 2 year totals 1998-04-30 5.5 0 1997-04-30 10.0 0 1932-04-30 5.3 0 1931-04-30 11.6 0

It’s tough for record phasers to jackpot NYC. We had March 1993 phase too far SW so the APPS were favored. Nemo phased a little too late in 2013 so Suffolk to New England were favored.

1998 didn’t have the strong MJO 2-7 response which helped to drive the brief Arctic outbreak to our west back in January.

Through February 10th we have been running a few degrees warmer than 1998. Plus we have had a stronger ridge and weaker trough response over North America. Makes sense with the forcing much further west than 1998. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 10 Missing Count 1 2016-02-10 42.4 0 2 2002-02-10 41.6 0 3 1932-02-10 41.3 0 4 2024-02-10 41.0 0 5 2023-02-10 40.4 0 - 2012-02-10 40.4 0 6 1991-02-10 39.8 0 7 1950-02-10 39.6 2 8 2020-02-10 39.3 0 9 1998-02-10 39.1 0 Stronger ridge and weaker trough than 1998 with forcing much further west

Most overpowering STJ into the Baja and SOCAL to start February since 1998.

I am hoping the EPS is more correct with its stronger transient Rockies ridge which would allow the 2nd system to potentially amplify closer to the coast when colder air briefly becomes available.

A pretty wide spread between the models as we get a brief -EPO -NAO window before the -EPO reverses after the 25th.

4th warmest winter so far just ahead of last year through the 10th. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 10 Missing Count 1 2016-02-10 42.4 0 2 2002-02-10 41.6 0 3 1932-02-10 41.3 0 4 2024-02-10 41.0 0 5 2023-02-10 40.4 0 - 2012-02-10 40.4 0 6 1991-02-10 39.8 0 7 1950-02-10 39.6 2 8 2020-02-10 39.3 0 9 1998-02-10 39.1 0 10 1999-02-10 39.0 0

The AMOC shutting down is not the same as the Gulf Stream shutting down. https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/gulf-stream-collapse-amoc/ There is evidence that [the AMOC] has slowed down, and even collapsed, in the past… If the AMOC collapses — but there is no direct evidence of this — it would be a serious issue for the region [of the Greenland and Norwegian Seas]. It would probably introduce some cooling to a region that otherwise would be warming now… But the larger Gulf Stream circulation would continue operating, largely as before.” https://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/will-the-gulf-stream-really-shut-down/#:~:text=People conflate the Gulf Stream,WHOI physical oceanographer Robert Todd. Researchers agree the AMOC will likely slow over the next century, and there’s evidence that a slowdown may have already begun, although it’s not clear if the observed changes are due to climate change or reflect more natural year-to-year variation. An abrupt shutdown like the one featured in news stories is much less certain. But even if the deep-water portion of the AMOC did shut down, the Gulf Stream would continue to flow. As noted by MIT physical oceanography professor Carl Wunsch in 2004, “The only way to produce an ocean circulation without a Gulf Stream is either to turn off the wind system, or to stop the Earth's rotation, or both.” Neither will happen, even in the most extreme climate change scenarios. “The Gulf Stream will not shut down, but it is not immune to climate change,” Todd says. He has collected data showing that the current is warming and shifting closer to the coast, which could expose marine life to sudden temperature increases and have profound implications for fisheries. The rate at which it transports water may also change. But it will always continue to flow.

The study still seems incomplete since global warming wasn’t included and the amounts of fresh water entering the Atlantic leading to a simulated collapse were much higher than current levels. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2416631-atlantic-current-shutdown-is-a-real-danger-suggests-simulation/ However, to produce this collapse, the researchers had to run the model for 2500 years. And they had to add a huge amount of freshwater – less than in previous simulations, but still around 80 times more than is currently entering the ocean as Greenland’s ice sheet melts. “So that is absurd and not very realistic,” says van Westen. Moreover, the simulation didn’t involve any global warming. The team now plans to rerun the simulation to include it.

That’s the truth.

The lowest for any 10 year period was 18.8” from 83-84 to 92-93. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.6 2.1 6.8 5.2 4.1 0.1 18.8 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0.0 24.5 1991-1992 0.0 T 0.7 1.5 1.0 9.4 T 12.6 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 0.2 0.0 24.9 1989-1990 0.0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 13.4 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 2.6 13.9 1.5 T 0.0 19.1 1986-1987 0.0 T 0.6 13.6 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.1 1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0 1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 8.4 10.0 0.2 T 24.1 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4

We are going to need to see some improvements during the rest of the 2020s for NYC to stay out of the cardinal decade snowfall basement since the 1950s. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 T 2.6 4.4 6.0 0.1 T 13.2 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 0.0 M M 2.3 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.3 1.1 5.3 12.9 11.8 6.0 0.6 37.9 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T T 6.6 7.2 10.1 3.5 0.5 28.0 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.8 3.0 6.1 8.7 5.7 0.1 24.4 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 1994-1995 0.0 T T 0.2 11.6 T T 11.8 1993-1994 0.0 T 6.9 12.0 26.4 8.1 0.0 53.4 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0.0 24.5 1991-1992 0.0 T 0.7 1.5 1.0 9.4 T 12.6 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 0.2 0.0 24.9 1989-1990 0.0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 13.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.1 2.3 7.9 5.4 3.0 1.0 19.7 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 2.6 13.9 1.5 T 0.0 19.1 1986-1987 0.0 T 0.6 13.6 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.1 1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0 1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 8.4 10.0 0.2 T 24.1 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.9 21.5 T 0.8 27.2 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.8 0.4 0.7 9.6 24.6 1980-1981 0.0 T 2.8 8.0 T 8.6 0.0 19.4 1979-1980 T 0.0 3.5 2.0 2.7 4.6 T 12.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.3 2.0 8.0 9.9 2.3 0.1 22.5 1978-1979 0.0 2.2 0.5 6.6 20.1 T T 29.4 1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7 1976-1977 0.0 T 5.1 13.0 5.8 0.6 T 24.5 1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3 1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5 1972-1973 T T T 1.8 0.8 0.2 T 2.8 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5 1969-1970 0.0 T 6.8 8.4 6.4 4.0 T 25.6 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.4 8.3 7.1 10.1 6.1 0.1 32.0 1968-1969 0.0 T 7.0 1.0 16.6 5.6 0.0 30.2 1967-1968 0.0 3.2 5.5 3.6 1.1 6.1 0.0 19.5 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 9.1 1.4 23.6 17.4 T 51.5 1965-1966 T 0.0 T 11.6 9.8 T 0.0 21.4 1964-1965 0.0 0.0 3.1 14.8 2.5 2.8 1.2 24.4 1963-1964 0.0 T 11.3 13.3 14.1 6.0 T 44.7 1962-1963 T T 4.5 5.3 3.7 2.8 T 16.3 1961-1962 0.0 T 7.7 0.6 9.6 0.2 T 18.1 1960-1961 T 0.0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 54.7 1959-1960 0.0 0.5 15.8 2.5 1.9 18.5 0.0 39.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.1 0.5 3.3 4.8 4.0 6.2 1.0 19.9 1958-1959 0.0 T 3.8 1.5 0.4 6.7 0.6 13.0 1957-1958 0.0 T 8.7 9.2 10.7 15.9 0.2 44.7 1956-1957 0.0 T 0.9 8.9 7.0 2.6 2.5 21.9 1955-1956 0.0 1.0 3.3 1.2 2.7 21.1 4.2 33.5 1954-1955 0.0 T 0.1 2.6 5.2 3.6 0.0 11.5 1953-1954 0.0 2.2 T 12.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 15.8 1952-1953 0.5 1.7 7.5 4.1 0.4 0.9 T 15.1 1951-1952 0.0 T 3.3 6.2 2.8 7.4 0.0 19.7 1950-1951 0.0 T 3.8 0.9 1.9 2.7 0.0 9.3 1949-1950 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 8.5 1.4 1.9 14.0

It seems like the forcing further west than forecast is helping to pop these transient Southeast ridges which reduce the suppression risk. But at the same time it introduces P-Type issues and milder temperatures. We would probably need a real thread the needle scenario before the month is out for a start to finish all snow with temperatures not rising much above freezing to maximize accumulation potential.

It’s not a pure MJO 8 since convection never really goes away near and west to the Dateline.

Yeah, much better chance of P-Type issues rather than outright suppression.

The record high for NYC today is 61° and it was only set last year. Temperatures should get very close to 60° today. 2/10 61 in 2023 61 in 2001 61 in 1990

The climate models aren’t good enough to answer the question. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100011

Pretty extreme to get an EF2 tornado during February in Wisconsin.