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bluewave

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Everything posted by bluewave

  1. bluewave
    They have pretty much been in the same boat as us with only 1 snowfall season out of the last 6 with above normal snowfall.
  2. bluewave
    Boston is doing really poorly so far compared to their total seasonal average and Philly much better. seasonal snowfall so far vs average seasonal snowfall Boston….9.7……49.2 Philly…….11.2…..23.1
  3. bluewave
    An asterisk will have to go next to the NYC snowfall measurements since they are our only major station still below 10” on the season. Our other major stations are all above 10”. The low snowfall measurements are the winter version of the low high temperatures during the warm season due to the vegetation too close to the ASOS creating deep shade that wasn’t there before the 90s. We generally did the best we could this season with the continuing record warmth and hostile Pacific patterns. While we are on track for another below normal snowfall season, it won’t be as bad a last year. Seasonal snowfall so far vs the seasonal average EWR…12.2….31.5 NYC….7.5*….29.8 LGA….10.5….29.8 JFK…..12.8….25.9 ISP…….10.9….31.8 BDR…..15.6….33.6
  4. bluewave
    Yeah, pretty ridiculous heat in that part of the world keeps reloading the forcing leading to more jet extensions and warmth for us.
  5. bluewave
    That squall just gave me my heaviest snow rate here just east of KHVN for the whole event.
  6. bluewave
    Yeah, the rates under that band were really impressive.
  7. bluewave
    This is the first time on record that ISP hasn’t dropped below 17° by February 17th. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Feb 17 Missing Count 1 2024-02-17 17 1 2 2002-02-17 15 0 - 1998-02-17 15 0 3 2021-02-17 13 0 - 2020-02-17 13 0 4 2010-02-17 12 0 - 2006-02-17 12 0 5 2012-02-17 10 0 - 2008-02-17 10 0
  8. bluewave
    The 0z SPC HREF snowfall max did a nice job with the 8-10” snowfall forecast around Staten Island . But the actual falloff in snowfall to the north was more extreme. This may be the first chance we have had to use this model for a mesoscale snow event. It has done very well in recent years with the numerous flash flood events around the area.
  9. bluewave
    It’s really great to see your area score a top 10 snowiest day for the month of February. Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date 1 19.8 2006-02-12 2 19.0 1961-02-04 3 17.9 1983-02-12 4 13.2 1978-02-07 5 13.0 2003-02-17 - 13.0 1967-02-07 - 13.0 1902-02-17 6 11.5 2010-02-11 7 11.0 2024-02-17 - 11.0 1926-02-10 8 10.5 1995-02-04 9 10.1 1987-02-23 10 10.0 1907-02-04 - 10.0 1899-02-13
  10. bluewave
    This may be the first time when New Brunswick was 10”+ and both Philly and NYC stayed under 4”.
  11. bluewave
    A sting jet is in the lower atmosphere right behind a very deep surface low. This is the upper jet. The front left sector gets some great lift.
  12. bluewave
    Nice assist from 200KT+ jet max.
  13. bluewave
    Should be an active hurricane season so the exact tracks will be important with so much SST rocket fuel heading into the season and a developing La Niña.
  14. bluewave
    The SPC HREF max had the right idea with the 8-10” forecast even though the cutoff north of Staten Island to the South Shore was sharper.
  15. bluewave
    One of the better spots for this storm. 0655 AM Snow Coney Island 40.59N 73.99W 02/17/2024 M9.9 inch Kings NY Trained Spotter
  16. bluewave
    Yeah, it was a combination of the El Niño forcing interacting with the MJO forcing from the IO to WPAC. This combination resulted in a much stronger El Niño ridge than usual in Canada. Plus we didn’t get the deeper trough in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic typical for El Niños. The tendency for the Nino ridge to build into the Northeast continues the pattern of higher 500 mb winter heights in the Northeast since 15-16. This has resulted in the first 9 consecutive warmer to record warm winters in a row around the Northeast. I think the record Atlantic SSTs are probably also factoring into the ridging and record warmth into the Northeast.
  17. bluewave
    Sure. The models did a good job identifying the period leading up to and just after Presidents’ Day for frozen precip potential.
  18. bluewave
    Long range modeling has been running too cold . So if it shows marginal temps near the coast than you have to take note of that. The last event was initially modeled too cold a week out by several models. We ended up losing half the total precipitation to melting and low ratios from around NYC out along the coast. But the areas just inland from the coast have much more leeway being closer to the cold.
  19. bluewave
    Warm temperatures could be a big issue near the coast.
  20. bluewave
    The long range guidance has been running too cold. Probably related to the models underestimating the forcing in the warmer tropical marine zones for us. That’s why I have been pointing out the warmer risks to the long range forecasts. All that record +30°C SST warmth from the IO to west of the Dateline keeps winning out. Convection flares up in a warm MJO phase followed by a big jet extension and warmer temperatures for us. This has been the main temperature theme for us during the winter since the December 2015 +13 departure. It happens whether we are in El Niño, La Niña, or ENSO neutral. So this has been the first time we had 9 warmer to record warm winters a row.
  21. bluewave
    Ridiculous warmth in Canada for the first half of February.
  22. bluewave
    Historic low for Great Lakes ice in mid-February.
  23. bluewave
    Yes, NYC picked up 1” in December 2014.
  24. bluewave
    That was a very unusual event for May. This one was also a rarity for Providence to get a record daily snowfall over 6.2” and Boston only 0.1”.
  25. bluewave
    Just looked at the February days going back to 2000. I know May 77 was another occasion. But it seems pretty rare in general for Providence to get a 6”+ calendar day and Boston to get only 0.1”.
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