bluewave

This rough pattern for the beaches looks to continue right into the fall. Record Atlantic SSTs plus a developing La Niña. So we could be looking at a high number of named storms and ACE. Even if the strongest landfall impacts are down around the SE and Gulf, the beaches aren’t ready for a big hurricane swell season. Closer landfalls would be even worse since many spots are in such bad shape. Not to mention the flooding from rainfall should high amounts of tropical moisture stream into our region like we saw a few summers ago.

Could be some more beach erosion this weekend as the next storm coincides with the higher astronomical tides at the time of the new moon. But the period of onshore flow should be of shorter duration then some of the stronger recent erosion events. The offshore flow from Sunday into Monday should be more prolonged and stronger with gusts in excess of 50 mph possible as the low closes off near Maine.

I get them from the Frontierweather DTN site. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification-iframe.html

Currently the lowest number of freezes by one day ahead of the previous record holder last winter. If NYC can hold onto 3-1 as the latest feeeze, it would be the 2nd earliest by a few days. 2020 was the last time NYC had a last freeze on March 1st. 2024-03-01 48 30 39.0 0.2 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 2024-04-30 36 55 2 2023-04-30 37 0 - 2012-04-30 37 0 3 2002-04-30 47 0 4 2020-04-30 48 0 - 2016-04-30 48 0 5 2017-04-30 49 0 - 1998-04-30 49 0 Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1942 02-28 (1942) 29 11-13 (1942) 31 257 2020 03-01 (2020) 25 10-31 (2020) 32 243 1962 03-09 (1962) 32 11-07 (1962) 31 242 1945 03-11 (1945) 32 11-21 (1945) 31 254 1953 03-11 (1953) 21 11-06 (1953) 30 239 1946 03-12 (1946) 28 11-23 (1946) 31 255

My guess is that the long range model error is the inability of the models to resolve the MJO. So this introduces a significant cold bias. Convection keeps reloading in the warm phases. The stock El Niño seasonal default doesn’t normally include so much MJO 4-7 action. In the old days, the MJO was weak or inactive in these phases during stronger El Niño’s. So the record WPAC warm pool is competing with the typical El Niño warm pool. The long range models must not be able to give reliable long range forecasts when there are other marine heatwaves competing with the El Niño. All forecasts beyond a week or two have been defaulting to the stock El Niño seasonal forecasts issued in November with that big Southeast El Nino trough which didn’t verify this winter. WPAC forcing promotes more of a ridge in these areas.

It’s good to see AI versions of these models coming out. The hope is that they can correct the day 11-15 cold bias of all the major models. It will be interesting to see if AI can be used to correct the long range tendency for models to underestimate the warmer MJO forcing. That’s a big part of why the week 2 and beyond forecasts have been up to 5° too cold in spots going back to late November.

Many stations from Newark to Boston had their lowest 2 year snowfall totals and averages on record. It’s a bit of a surprise this took so long to achieve with how warm the winters have been getting. Very little we can do when record warmth combines with a very hostile Pacific. Plus we did this with a La Niña last winter and El Niño this year. The SSWs and Atlantic blocking intervals this winter we’re no match for the warm MJO action. Same for the near record -AO in December 2022 and strong blocking pattern last March. The Pacific has just become to powerful a force in terms of flooding North America with warmth and producing unfavorable storm tracks.

Much above average temperatures continuing well into March. While it looks like the highest departures remain west, a 70° day or two can always sneak in with enough sun and SW flow. This may be something that pops up in the short term when the finer details are known. Models trying to show some closer to average temperatures in around 15 days. But the very warm Gulf Stream appears to be keeping the region from getting too cold even if more of a trough develops.

5th warmest start to March around +10. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 5 Missing Count 1 1991-03-05 52.1 0 2 2004-03-05 51.5 0 3 1880-03-05 48.9 0 4 1964-03-05 48.8 0 5 2024-03-05 48.7 0 6 1974-03-05 47.4 0 7 1882-03-05 47.3 0 8 1973-03-05 46.8 0 - 1961-03-05 46.8 0 9 2020-03-05 46.6 0 - 1979-03-05 46.6 0 - 1919-03-05 46.6 0 10 1983-03-05 46.3 0

Yeah, the extended Euro continues with the wet pattern until further notice.

Hard to believe that there hasn’t been a major hurricane landfall north of the Gulf and FL since 1996. Must be related to the stronger ridge east of New England steering many systems to the south. While Sandy’s damage resembled a major, it went in near ACY instead of New England. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

It will be interesting to see if the Euro is correct about the enhanced tropical activity from the Caribbean into the Gulf.

Plenty of extra Atlantic warmth and moisture to fuel more heavy rains.

Yeah, we would be in the 70s today like areas to our west if we had sun and SW flow.

Hopefully the models are correct and we can sneak in another 70° day next week after all the rain through the coming weekend.

Yeah, any days with offshore flow and enough sun will make a run on 70° like we got yesterday and Buffalo is getting today. But the key is enough sun and offshore flow. These slight nuisances which allow 70° warmth are best dealt with by the shorter term models within a few days. This current pattern is a very wet and warm with numerous opportunities for onshore flow. So the minimum warm departures may end up may end up being higher than the max departures next few weeks. As for calls for cooler later in the month, we have to remember how the models have had a cooler weather near the end of their range all winter only to correct warmer in time.

There is a difference between needing a jacket and whether the pattern is warm or cold for this time of year. Most days we’ll need a jacket even it’s +10 since it’s only March. The means do a good job at showing the warmth. As for frozen precip, very unlikely coastal sections see much next few weeks.

I removed the original post since you completely missed the points that I was trying to make. I will try to break it down piece by piece in this new post. While the geographic locations of the temperature anomalies this winter we’re correlated to the El Niño, the magnitude of departures could not simply be reduced to saying it was a result of the El Niño. Sections to the north and the CONUS had their warmest winter on record with departures in spots above +10 against the warmest 30 year climate normals over the 91-20 period. The intensity of this El Niño wasn’t nearly as strong as the past winters which were previous the warmest record holders. So there was much more than just the El Niño going on this winter. My reference to the difference in the 500 mb anomalies this winter from past El Niño instances goes to the issue of why the deeper trough which was modeled by the Euro seasonal didn’t occur in the South. First, we saw record warmth for the WPAC basin during an El Niño. This is what I was pointing out in this thread last fall. My concern was that the risks to the winter forecasts would be much warmer than the computer models from various centers were indicating. It’s also why one dimensional model forecasts based mostly on El Niño were biased so cold. The more westward forcing even at times back to the eastern IO combined with the El Niño to produce warmth well beyond any seasonal forecast this winter. So these marine heatwaves in the warm forcing areas for North America realized through unusually active MJO 4-7 action for an El Niño contributed to the much warmer departures than a one dimensional El Niño model would suggest. So the more westward forcing for an El Niño would tend to weaken this trough and cold potential in the south. This forcing combined with the El Niño through the El Niño set of MJO composites also created the stronger 500 mb and ridge and warmth to the north. A second reason I showed 500 mb charts was to illustrate how different a response we got from the Aleutian low this winter than has typically been the case with stronger El Niños.This was the weakest Aleutian low response we have seen from a stronger El Nino. My guess is this is related to the more westward forcing lean which actually produced a ridge south of the Aleutians and to the NW of Hawaii instead of the trough being forecast by the models. Now you can say this is related to the -PDO and to an extent this is the case. But the -PDO this winter was more defined by the warm waters near Japan and west of the Dateline rather than the usual cold ring In the east. So we have seen a shift in the way the PDO has be manifesting in recent years. Plus there have been recent studies that the PDO is more of an effect than a cause of the pattern across the North Pacific. This SST pattern may just be an effect of the predominant forcing at any given time. I would agree with you that the enhanced STJ was one of the more typical El Niño responses this winter which did work out. But the extreme flooding and record rainfall in places like California was stronger in spots than even the 97-98 El Niño which was much stronger could muster. So another example of the overlapping influences this winter.

No cold air.

No cold air in sight as the ensembles remain much warmer than average next few weeks.

Top 10 warmest start to March. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 3 Missing Count 1 1991-03-03 55.3 0 2 1972-03-03 54.3 0 3 2004-03-03 54.0 0 4 1882-03-03 49.8 0 5 1966-03-03 48.7 0 6 2024-03-03 48.5 0 7 1983-03-03 48.2 0 - 1921-03-03 48.2 0 8 2017-03-03 47.7 0 9 1902-03-03 47.5 0 10 1871-03-03 47.3 0

It would be interesting find out why the timing and magnitude of the warmth with this El Niño was so different from past events.

Very impressive warmth.

Warm and super amped up MJO facing off against the strong -AO due to the final or major SSW is a very rainy pattern in the early spring. So a raging Pacific Jet undercutting the -AO block. Another case in recent times of the Pacific overpowering the Atlantic.