bluewave

Many stations from Newark to Boston had their lowest 2 year snowfall totals and averages on record. It’s a bit of a surprise this took so long to achieve with how warm the winters have been getting. Very little we can do when record warmth combines with a very hostile Pacific. Plus we did this with a La Niña last winter and El Niño this year. The SSWs and Atlantic blocking intervals this winter we’re no match for the warm MJO action. Same for the near record -AO in December 2022 and strong blocking pattern last March. The Pacific has just become to powerful a force in terms of flooding North America with warmth and producing unfavorable storm tracks.

Much above average temperatures continuing well into March. While it looks like the highest departures remain west, a 70° day or two can always sneak in with enough sun and SW flow. This may be something that pops up in the short term when the finer details are known. Models trying to show some closer to average temperatures in around 15 days. But the very warm Gulf Stream appears to be keeping the region from getting too cold even if more of a trough develops.

5th warmest start to March around +10. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 5 Missing Count 1 1991-03-05 52.1 0 2 2004-03-05 51.5 0 3 1880-03-05 48.9 0 4 1964-03-05 48.8 0 5 2024-03-05 48.7 0 6 1974-03-05 47.4 0 7 1882-03-05 47.3 0 8 1973-03-05 46.8 0 - 1961-03-05 46.8 0 9 2020-03-05 46.6 0 - 1979-03-05 46.6 0 - 1919-03-05 46.6 0 10 1983-03-05 46.3 0

Yeah, the extended Euro continues with the wet pattern until further notice.

Hard to believe that there hasn’t been a major hurricane landfall north of the Gulf and FL since 1996. Must be related to the stronger ridge east of New England steering many systems to the south. While Sandy’s damage resembled a major, it went in near ACY instead of New England. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

It will be interesting to see if the Euro is correct about the enhanced tropical activity from the Caribbean into the Gulf.

Plenty of extra Atlantic warmth and moisture to fuel more heavy rains.

Yeah, we would be in the 70s today like areas to our west if we had sun and SW flow.

Hopefully the models are correct and we can sneak in another 70° day next week after all the rain through the coming weekend.

Yeah, any days with offshore flow and enough sun will make a run on 70° like we got yesterday and Buffalo is getting today. But the key is enough sun and offshore flow. These slight nuisances which allow 70° warmth are best dealt with by the shorter term models within a few days. This current pattern is a very wet and warm with numerous opportunities for onshore flow. So the minimum warm departures may end up may end up being higher than the max departures next few weeks. As for calls for cooler later in the month, we have to remember how the models have had a cooler weather near the end of their range all winter only to correct warmer in time.

There is a difference between needing a jacket and whether the pattern is warm or cold for this time of year. Most days we’ll need a jacket even it’s +10 since it’s only March. The means do a good job at showing the warmth. As for frozen precip, very unlikely coastal sections see much next few weeks.

I removed the original post since you completely missed the points that I was trying to make. I will try to break it down piece by piece in this new post. While the geographic locations of the temperature anomalies this winter we’re correlated to the El Niño, the magnitude of departures could not simply be reduced to saying it was a result of the El Niño. Sections to the north and the CONUS had their warmest winter on record with departures in spots above +10 against the warmest 30 year climate normals over the 91-20 period. The intensity of this El Niño wasn’t nearly as strong as the past winters which were previous the warmest record holders. So there was much more than just the El Niño going on this winter. My reference to the difference in the 500 mb anomalies this winter from past El Niño instances goes to the issue of why the deeper trough which was modeled by the Euro seasonal didn’t occur in the South. First, we saw record warmth for the WPAC basin during an El Niño. This is what I was pointing out in this thread last fall. My concern was that the risks to the winter forecasts would be much warmer than the computer models from various centers were indicating. It’s also why one dimensional model forecasts based mostly on El Niño were biased so cold. The more westward forcing even at times back to the eastern IO combined with the El Niño to produce warmth well beyond any seasonal forecast this winter. So these marine heatwaves in the warm forcing areas for North America realized through unusually active MJO 4-7 action for an El Niño contributed to the much warmer departures than a one dimensional El Niño model would suggest. So the more westward forcing for an El Niño would tend to weaken this trough and cold potential in the south. This forcing combined with the El Niño through the El Niño set of MJO composites also created the stronger 500 mb and ridge and warmth to the north. A second reason I showed 500 mb charts was to illustrate how different a response we got from the Aleutian low this winter than has typically been the case with stronger El Niños.This was the weakest Aleutian low response we have seen from a stronger El Nino. My guess is this is related to the more westward forcing lean which actually produced a ridge south of the Aleutians and to the NW of Hawaii instead of the trough being forecast by the models. Now you can say this is related to the -PDO and to an extent this is the case. But the -PDO this winter was more defined by the warm waters near Japan and west of the Dateline rather than the usual cold ring In the east. So we have seen a shift in the way the PDO has be manifesting in recent years. Plus there have been recent studies that the PDO is more of an effect than a cause of the pattern across the North Pacific. This SST pattern may just be an effect of the predominant forcing at any given time. I would agree with you that the enhanced STJ was one of the more typical El Niño responses this winter which did work out. But the extreme flooding and record rainfall in places like California was stronger in spots than even the 97-98 El Niño which was much stronger could muster. So another example of the overlapping influences this winter.

No cold air.

No cold air in sight as the ensembles remain much warmer than average next few weeks.

Top 10 warmest start to March. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 3 Missing Count 1 1991-03-03 55.3 0 2 1972-03-03 54.3 0 3 2004-03-03 54.0 0 4 1882-03-03 49.8 0 5 1966-03-03 48.7 0 6 2024-03-03 48.5 0 7 1983-03-03 48.2 0 - 1921-03-03 48.2 0 8 2017-03-03 47.7 0 9 1902-03-03 47.5 0 10 1871-03-03 47.3 0

It would be interesting find out why the timing and magnitude of the warmth with this El Niño was so different from past events.

Very impressive warmth.

Warm and super amped up MJO facing off against the strong -AO due to the final or major SSW is a very rainy pattern in the early spring. So a raging Pacific Jet undercutting the -AO block. Another case in recent times of the Pacific overpowering the Atlantic.

The only real heat that summer was the memorable heatwave in mid-July. The summer average was cool compared to our warmer summers since 2010. Those 70s heatwaves lacked the staying power that we get regularly today. The NYC summer monthly departures for todays climate in 1977 were -1.8,+1.5, and -0.4. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Aug Season Mean 73.4 80.1 77.4 77.0 2023 71.6 80.6 76.7 76.3 2022 74.4 82.6 80.5 79.2 2021 76.2 78.8 80.0 78.3 2020 74.4 80.8 77.7 77.6 2019 72.7 80.6 76.2 76.5 2018 72.1 78.2 79.2 76.5 2017 72.7 77.3 74.0 74.7 2016 72.9 79.9 79.9 77.6 2015 72.0 79.0 78.7 76.6 2014 72.8 77.0 74.5 74.8 2013 73.3 80.9 74.7 76.3 2012 72.4 80.8 77.6 76.9 2011 74.5 82.7 76.9 78.0 2010 76.2 82.3 77.7 78.7 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Aug Season Mean 71.6 77.0 76.2 74.9 1979 69.3 77.0 76.6 74.3 1978 71.6 75.0 76.6 74.4 1977 70.3 78.1 75.1 74.5 1976 73.6 74.9 74.4 74.3 1975 71.6 76.9 75.0 74.5 1974 70.1 77.1 76.4 74.5 1973 74.6 78.6 79.6 77.6 1972 68.8 77.9 75.9 74.2 1971 74.8 77.7 76.0 76.2

The summer of 1977 was cool by todays standards. People remember the 10 day heatwave in mid-July. But the rest of the summer was cool.

Thanks for creating that chart. NYC would have more top 10 warmest months If they measured the temperatures the same way as before the 1990s. Switching to measurements under the fully leafed out trees during the warmer months since the 90s lowered the rankings of recent years. We can see how during the colder months when the leaves on the trees aren’t an issue, NYC has a similar amount of top 10 warmest months as the surrounding stations. But it has fallen behind during the summer when the deep shade artificially cools the readings since the 1990s. Plus NYC is also losing top 10s after the spring leaf out and before the fall leaf drop. NYC top 10 warmest summers dense ranked by temperature https://www.sqltutorial.org/sql-window-functions/sql-dense_rank/ Summers since 2010 bolded NYC 5 top 10 warmest temperature summers Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.8 0 2 1966 77.3 0 3 2005 77.1 0 4 2020 76.9 0 - 1993 76.9 0 - 1983 76.9 0 5 1949 76.8 0 6 2022 76.7 0 - 2016 76.7 0 - 1999 76.7 0 7 1988 76.6 0 - 1980 76.6 0 - 1906 76.6 0 8 1995 76.5 0 - 1944 76.5 0 9 2015 76.3 0 - 1991 76.3 0 - 1952 76.3 0 - 1943 76.3 0 - 1908 76.3 0 10 1994 76.2 0 LGA 8 top 10 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79.5 0 2 2010 79.1 0 3 2016 78.8 0 4 2022 78.1 0 5 2005 78.0 0 6 2018 77.9 0 7 2021 77.5 0 - 1966 77.5 0 8 2006 77.4 0 - 1999 77.4 0 9 2019 77.3 0 - 2012 77.3 0 - 1991 77.3 0 10 1994 77.2 0 Newark 6 top 10 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 79.2 0 - 1993 79.2 0 2 2010 78.7 0 3 1994 78.5 0 4 2021 78.3 0 5 2011 78.0 0 6 2005 77.8 0 7 1988 77.7 0 8 2020 77.6 0 - 2016 77.6 0 - 1973 77.6 0 9 1999 77.1 0 10 1995 77.0 0 JFK 7 top 10 warmest Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2022 76.1 0 4 2015 76.0 0 5 2011 75.8 0 6 2020 75.7 0 7 1983 75.6 0 8 1984 75.4 0 9 2012 75.3 0 - 1991 75.3 0 10 1971 75.2 0 - 1949 75.2 0 BDR 10 top 10 warmest Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2016 75.4 0 2 2020 75.3 0 3 2010 75.0 0 4 2022 74.4 0 5 2018 74.3 0 6 2021 74.2 0 - 2012 74.2 0 7 2019 74.0 0 - 2011 74.0 0 - 1994 74.0 0 - 1993 74.0 0 8 2005 73.9 0 9 2013 73.8 0 - 1973 73.8 0 10 1949 73.7 0 ISP 10 top 10 warmest Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 74.7 0 2 2022 74.6 0 - 2020 74.6 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 6 2019 73.8 0 7 2021 73.7 0 8 2018 73.5 0 - 2005 73.5 0 9 2013 73.4 0 10 2012 73.3 0 - 1991 73.3 0

The new EC-AIFS looks like a better defined version of the EPS without the smoothing longer range. It would be great if it can correct some of the long range biases of the Euro and EPS. So it will be interesting to see going forward. https://openmeteo.substack.com/p/artificial-intelligence-weather-model The open-data weather forecasting landscape is experiencing a breath of fresh air with an exciting development the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). ECMWF Opens the Doors to AIFS: In a significant move towards open-data, ECMWF has made data from its cutting-edge artificial intelligence weather model (AIFS) publicly available. Unlike traditional numerical models, AIFS leverages Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), similar to those used in AI image generation, but with significantly more data. This shift, made possible by recent advancements in computing power, allows AIFS to learn complex weather patterns with high accuracy. In recent years, several AI weather models have emerged, with Google's GraphCast gaining attention for surpassing even the world-renowned IFS model. However, AIFS now takes the crown, demonstrating superior accuracy as shown in the provided forecast performance chart below. While all models perform well in the short term (first few days), AI models like AIFS excel in longer-range forecasts, exceeding 5 days. This development is a significant step forward for AI in weather forecasting, paving the way for more accurate and accessible weather information for everyone.

Some stations in the Northeast are over 50 to 1 top 10 warmest to coldest months since 2010.

It didn’t even take 10 years to surpass the CONUS warm record set in 15-16.