bluewave

Looks like area losses are slowing enough to fall behind the steep pace that 2012 had in early August. So we are currently in 2nd place behind 2020. The period in early August was also when 2020 fell behind 2012.

The HREF did well as it had the widely scattered convection for today.

That’s why my previous post was the rankings for the stations which are the absolutes rather than departures which change every 10 years. But the sea breeze influence was evident in both datasets. The sea breeze prevented Newark from having a 90° average high for July like Harrison and SMQ did. Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1999 92.2 1 2 2022 91.5 0 3 2011 90.3 0 4 2024 90.0 0 5 2020 89.7 0 6 2010 89.4 0 7 2019 89.2 0 - 2012 89.2 0 - 2003 89.2 25 8 2016 88.9 0 9 2023 88.2 0 10 2006 88.0 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 91.3 1 2 2022 91.0 0 3 2010 90.8 1 4 2019 90.6 0 - 2012 90.6 2 5 2024 90.5 0 6 2020 90.3 0 7 2002 89.7 0 8 2023 89.5 0 9 2016 88.9 0 10 2018 88.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 92.5 0 2 1993 92.2 0 3 2022 92.1 0 - 2010 92.1 0 4 1994 90.4 0 5 1999 90.2 0 6 2012 90.1 0 7 1966 90.0 0 - 1955 90.0 0 8 2024 89.7 0 - 1988 89.7 0 9 2019 89.5 0 10 1952 89.4 0

The CANSIPS has had a significant cold bias last 2 winters in the East. But so have many other seasonal models. This is why we would need a mismatch like Jan 22 that went against the La Niña and -PDO background state. That wasn’t something seen by the seasonal models either. It was a short term forecast that didn’t really happen till the models figured out Jan would go MJO 8 near the end of December.

Yeah, that big ridge east of New England with the trough over the Midwest really amps up the local sea breeze circulation.

Yeah, the areas east of NYC had much lower departures than in NJ due to the much stronger sea breezes this month. LGA….+0.5 JFK…..+.1.7 ISP…….+1.9 NYC…..+2.1 EWR…..+3.1 FWN…..+3.5 SMQ…..+3.7 Hightstown….Was +5.0 on 7-25 but hasn’t updated for last week yet

Mid to upper 90s for the usual warm spots in NJ to start the month. Even the North Shore of Long Island from Huntington to Commack can really warm up before the sea breeze arrives.

The very strong sea breezes this month limited Islip to only the 9th warmest and LGA 14th warmest July. Even Newark had a sea breeze influence since it couldn’t make the top 5 warmest like areas further west. FWN and SMQ had their 2nd warmest July west of the sea breeze influence. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1999 78.6 0 2 2019 78.1 0 3 2013 78.0 0 - 2010 78.0 0 4 2020 77.7 0 5 2011 77.6 0 6 1994 77.3 0 7 2022 77.1 0 8 2023 77.0 0 9 2024 76.9 0 10 2016 76.8 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2020 82.9 0 2 2010 82.8 0 3 1999 81.9 0 4 2019 81.5 0 5 2013 81.2 0 6 2022 81.1 0 - 2016 81.1 0 7 1955 80.9 0 8 1966 80.8 0 9 2006 80.7 0 10 1994 80.6 0 11 2023 80.4 0 - 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 - 1952 80.4 0 12 2008 80.0 0 - 1993 80.0 0 13 2018 79.8 0 - 1995 79.8 0 14 2024 79.7 0 15 2002 79.5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 82.7 0 2 2022 82.6 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 1994 81.9 0 6 2024 81.3 0 7 2013 80.9 0 8 2020 80.8 0 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 9 2023 80.6 0 - 2019 80.6 0 10 1955 80.5 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2020 76.5 0 2 2024 75.7 0 3 2019 75.3 0 4 2023 74.8 0 5 2013 74.6 0 6 2011 74.5 0 7 2022 74.4 0 8 2012 74.3 0 - 2006 74.3 0 9 2010 74.1 2 10 2016 73.9 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2024 78.3 0 3 2020 78.0 0 4 2022 77.9 0 5 2019 77.5 0 - 2011 77.5 0 6 2013 77.4 0 7 2012 76.9 0 8 2023 76.8 0 - 2003 76.8 25 9 2016 76.7 0 - 2010 76.7 0

The one silver lining is that you can turn on the sprinklers for these nuisance summer dry patterns. Almost a July version of January 2022. But most people don’t have snow making equipment to make up for missing the winter snowstorms. Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2022 33.2 0 2 1987 20.3 0 3 2014 18.8 0 4 2016 16.7 0 5 1961 15.9 0

7th wettest July for Cape May and 6th driest at SMQ. Time Series Summary for CAPE MAY 2 NW, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1959 10.52 0 2 1956 8.55 0 3 2000 8.38 0 4 2017 8.33 0 5 1945 7.99 0 6 1958 7.21 0 7 2024 6.85 4 8 1989 6.60 0 - 1926 6.60 0 9 1896 6.55 16 10 2001 6.17 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2013 0.07 2 2 2003 0.10 25 3 1999 0.61 0 4 2022 0.86 0 5 2002 1.00 0 6 2024 1.64 1 7 2015 1.88 0 8 2001 2.19 0 9 2005 2.78 0 10 2011 2.90 0

You know you are in a very cold environment when such a warm departure is still so far below 0°.

It’s one of the few times of the year when MJO 5 is cold for us. With the record WPAC warm pool most other MJO 4-7 periods are warm. So November is the only real outlier month for us.

The only month in recent years we have been able to get something approaching regular cold departures has been November.

The last time the AAO dropped this low in late July and early August during a La Niña was in 2011. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.aao.cdas.z700.19790101_current.csv 2011 7 28 -4.1244120597839355 2011 7 29 -4.727965831756592 2011 7 30 -4.49726676940918 2011 7 31 -4.067351818084717 2011 8 1 -4.2525835037231445 2011 8 2 -4.324845314025879

This looks like the greatest temperature gradient between JFK and Central New Jersey we have ever seen in July. Hightstown, NJ just set set their all-time July average high temperature of 91.8°. JFK has only averaged 84.3° which is well down the list at 20th warmest. So people on the South Shore got a real gift this July with the afternoon average highs so comfortable compared to NJ. But there is probably plenty of sand blown onto the streets especially near the beach with so many afternoons with this string of an Ambrose Jet. Time Series Summary for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 91.8 6 2 2022 91.4 0 3 1955 91.2 0 4 2020 91.0 0 5 2010 90.2 0 6 2011 90.0 0 - 1999 90.0 0 7 1894 89.9 1 8 2023 89.8 0 - 2019 89.8 0 9 1910 89.5 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 89.0 0 2 2011 88.6 0 3 2022 86.9 0 4 1993 86.8 0 5 2019 86.7 0 - 1966 86.7 0 6 2013 86.5 0 - 1999 86.5 0 7 2020 86.4 0 - 1983 86.4 0 8 1949 86.2 0 9 2002 86.1 0 10 2012 86.0 0 11 2016 85.7 0 12 1963 85.5 0 13 2015 85.2 0 14 1994 85.1 0 15 1974 85.0 0 16 2023 84.8 0 - 2008 84.8 0 - 1955 84.8 0 17 1971 84.7 0 18 1968 84.5 0 19 1952 84.4 0 20 2024 84.3 1 - 1970 84.3 0 - 1961 84.3 0

No heatwaves yet at JFK this year since the Ambrose Jet continues to produce numerous days with gusts over 30 mph. JFK only has had 2 days reaching 90° due to the much stronger sea breezes this summer. This is the 3rd lowest count in record through July 29th. It’s nice that at least a very localized part of our area can have any record which even approaches the record cool summer of 2009. Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 81 70 69 S25G36 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2009-07-29 0 0 - 1967-07-29 0 0 2 2014-07-29 1 0 - 2004-07-29 1 0 - 1985-07-29 1 0 - 1979-07-29 1 0 - 1960-07-29 1 1 - 1951-07-29 1 2 - 1948-07-29 1 198 3 2024-07-29 2 0 - 2007-07-29 2 0 - 1975-07-29 2 0 - 1958-07-29 2 1 - 1950-07-29 2 0

https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2023/11/15/index.html#:~:text=The Northeast is getting wetter.&text=The Northeast has seen a,is also expected to continue. Northeast is getting wetter. Precipitation has increased annually and in all seasons (see figure above). The Northeast is expected to see more precipitation under all global warming scenarios. The Northeast has seen a roughly 60% increase in the number of days with extreme precipitation, the largest increase of all the U.S. regions. The intensity of these events has also increased. This trend, along with an increased risk of flooding, is also expected to continue.

The average July high temperature over the last 10 years at Harrison, NJ away from the sea breeze has been 89°. It has warmed up so much that a 90° day is pretty much the normal high temperature. As recently as the 2000s the average high was closer to 85°. So these days the more memorable heatwaves don’t really start until the warm spots reach 95°. Monthly Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 89.0 89.0 2024 90.4 90.4 2023 89.5 89.5 2022 91.0 91.0 2021 87.6 87.6 2020 90.3 90.3 2019 90.6 90.6 2018 88.6 88.6 2017 85.9 85.9 2016 88.9 88.9 2015 87.1 87.1 Monthly Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 85.6 85.6 2009 83.2 83.2 2008 87.5 87.5 2007 84.6 84.6 2006 88.5 88.5 2005 87.2 87.2 2004 83.0 83.0 2003 85.1 85.1 2002 89.7 89.7 2001 84.9 84.9 2000 81.9 81.9

The strength is relative to the other years in the multiyear La Niña event. 10-11 was stronger than 11-12. 17-18 was stronger than 16-17. And 20-21 was stronger than 21-22 and 22-23. So the 3 strongest years within the multiyear La Ninas were the coldest and snowiest. And the 3 weakest years of those groups relative to the others were the warmest and least snowy winters.

Interesting what happened yesterday with that afternoon coastal trough and the flash flooding on Long Island. For the last few days models had this feature more to the SW over NJ. But I mentioned how these features can often be fickle. This one followed the past pattern and wound up across Long Island instead of NJ. During the winter these IVTs or coastal local instability troughs often end up in areas other than forecast. The most extreme instance of one of these during the warm season was with Henri a few summers ago. The main system looped back into CT and the coastal trough wound up right through NYC with the flash floods. But the CAMS had the main axis further SW in NJ or Delaware. So these often become nowcast specials. At least the HFREF got the heavy rain potential correct both times. But the placement was way off.

The first thing I do during a La Niña is see how amplified the MJO 5 is during October. For some reason the weaker La Ninas since 10-11 have all had weaker MJO 5s during October. This was followed by a stronger MJO 4-7 rebound in December. It’s why the weaker La Ninas since 10-11 have had warmer winters and the stronger La Ninas colder. Our best winters were 10-11, 17-18, and 20-21, which were stronger and colder ONIs and RONIs than the other grouped La Nias like 11-12, 16-17, and 22-23. But every La Niña since 11-12 has been warmer than average. The magnitude of the warmth was stronger during the weaker La Ninas. The stronger La Ninas had stronger MJO 5s in October and weaker MJO 4-7s in December. This relationship doesn’t work for stronger coupled El Niños or uncoupled El Niños since 15-16. The long range guidance always seems underestimate the MJO 4-7 forcing since 15-16 in any ENSO state coupled or uncoupled.The marine heatwaves in this area tend to focus the forcing here. Last winter also had a competing record marine heatwave in a MJO 2 leading to the colder pattern for a time out West in January. This increased to record MJO 4-7 forcing has resulted in an unprecedented 9 consecutive warm to record warm winters in a row for the Northeast.

Yeah, just like the PNA.

I like the Greenland Blocking Index which is like a combination of the AO and NAO. https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/gbi.mon.data

Very impressive departures there with the big drop in the AAO.