bluewave

A recent study found that the volcanic eruption had a cooling effect.

While El Niño to La Niña transition summers usually have a high number of 90° days, all the added moisture may push back against that influence. Many transition summers have featured at least 40 days reaching 90° at Newark. So anything under that would probably need plenty of rain and clouds. It could also make exceeding a high end summer like 2010 with 50 days reaching 90° difficult to achieve. 33 days has been the average for Newark since 2010. The 51-80 average used to be 23 days. El Niño to La Niña transition summers bolded Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 2022 49 0 - 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 11 2012 33 0 - 1999 33 0 - 1995 33 0 - 1966 33 0 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 2 5 15 8 3 0 33 2023 2 1 1 14 5 6 0 29 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31 2019 0 1 4 14 4 3 1 27 2018 0 4 5 9 14 4 0 36 2017 0 3 5 9 2 3 0 22 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40 2015 0 2 4 11 13 5 0 35 2014 0 0 2 8 2 3 0 15 2013 0 2 4 15 3 1 0 25 2012 0 2 6 16 7 2 0 33 2011 0 1 4 22 4 0 0 31 2010 1 2 13 21 11 6 0 54 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 1 5 9 6 2 0 23 1951 0 1 3 9 5 0 0 18 1952 0 0 8 17 2 4 0 31 1953 0 1 9 10 9 3 0 32 1954 0 0 5 10 3 0 0 18 1955 0 1 5 17 9 0 0 32 1956 0 2 6 1 5 0 0 14 1957 0 2 6 12 4 4 0 28 1958 0 0 2 11 6 2 0 21 1959 0 5 5 8 15 6 1 40 1960 1 0 3 2 8 1 0 15 1961 0 0 4 13 8 9 0 34 1962 1 2 6 3 2 0 0 14 1963 0 0 6 11 3 0 0 20 1964 0 3 6 9 5 3 0 26 1965 0 4 9 7 5 1 0 26 1966 0 0 10 14 8 1 0 33 1967 0 0 5 1 1 0 0 7 1968 0 0 4 9 9 1 0 23 1969 0 1 3 4 6 1 0 15 1970 0 2 2 5 8 5 0 22 1971 0 0 6 7 7 2 0 22 1972 0 0 0 16 4 1 0 21 1973 0 0 5 9 12 5 0 31 1974 1 2 2 10 3 0 0 18 1975 0 1 3 3 5 0 0 12 1976 2 0 7 2 4 0 0 15 1977 1 3 1 14 6 1 0 26 1978 0 1 3 8 4 0 0 16 1979 0 2 1 8 9 0 0 20 1980 0 1 3 8 12 3 0 27

This gives new meaning to a backloaded El Niño winter.

First time since 1965 and 1943 that Newark had a 90° or warmer high and a max under 55° during the first week of May. So plenty of contrast between the warm ups and back doors. Most other years had 80° days either side of the 90° day. Our last El Niño to La Niña transition in 2010 had 6 consecutive days over 80° to start the month. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2024-05-01 79 2024-05-02 90 2024-05-03 66 2024-05-04 62 2024-05-05 54 2024-05-06 M 2024-05-07 M Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2018-05-01 83 2018-05-02 90 2018-05-03 94 2018-05-04 88 2018-05-05 76 2018-05-06 67 2018-05-07 75 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2010-05-01 88 2010-05-02 90 2010-05-03 84 2010-05-04 83 2010-05-05 81 2010-05-06 80 2010-05-07 74 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2001-05-01 87 2001-05-02 92 2001-05-03 91 2001-05-04 94 2001-05-05 78 2001-05-06 64 2001-05-07 59 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2000-05-01 69 2000-05-02 68 2000-05-03 64 2000-05-04 71 2000-05-05 87 2000-05-06 90 2000-05-07 94 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1986-05-01 82 1986-05-02 60 1986-05-03 57 1986-05-04 65 1986-05-05 85 1986-05-06 91 1986-05-07 77 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1965-05-01 73 1965-05-02 74 1965-05-03 68 1965-05-04 91 1965-05-05 63 1965-05-06 78 1965-05-07 53 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1955-05-01 66 1955-05-02 66 1955-05-03 69 1955-05-04 83 1955-05-05 91 1955-05-06 72 1955-05-07 71 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1949-05-01 68 1949-05-02 71 1949-05-03 79 1949-05-04 83 1949-05-05 94 1949-05-06 93 1949-05-07 82 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1943-05-01 51 1943-05-02 64 1943-05-03 73 1943-05-04 59 1943-05-05 73 1943-05-06 71 1943-05-07 90 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1939-05-01 62 1939-05-02 62 1939-05-03 57 1939-05-04 71 1939-05-05 79 1939-05-06 88 1939-05-07 91 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1934-05-01 67 1934-05-02 69 1934-05-03 62 1934-05-04 70 1934-05-05 89 1934-05-06 90 1934-05-07 83

Yeah, all the pieces are there for an extremely active season if everything comes together.

The temperature forecast varies a bit from past El Niño to La Niña transitions. Typically the strongest warmth is centered from the Great Lakes into the East. This time the Rockies has the warmest summer departures relative to the means. It looks like we get more onshore flow like recent summers with high dew points rather than dry westerly flow which was typical during past El Niño to La Nina transition summers. Plus tropical systems getting steered into the Southeast and Gulf. So there would be numerous opportunities for the tropical moisture to funnel north.

The Euro is going for a close in tropical tracks rather than recurves with plenty of high pressure over the Northeast.

Top 5 May afternoon temperature drop over two days for areas west of NYC.

Yeah, spring and summer have become our big -NAO seasons.

Newark is on track for its first 90° during May 1-7 without at least 3 consecutive 80° days since 2000. So very unusual to get a 90° day not surrounded by 80° days this time of year. It shows how much resistance these warm ups have been getting from back doors and rain. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2024-05-01 79 2024-05-02 90 2024-05-03 66 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2018-05-01 83 2018-05-02 90 2018-05-03 94 2018-05-04 88 2018-05-05 76 2018-05-06 67 2018-05-07 75 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2010-05-01 88 2010-05-02 90 2010-05-03 84 2010-05-04 83 2010-05-05 81 2010-05-06 80 2010-05-07 74 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2001-05-01 87 2001-05-02 92 2001-05-03 91 2001-05-04 94 2001-05-05 78 2001-05-06 64 2001-05-07 59 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2000-05-01 69 2000-05-02 68 2000-05-03 64 2000-05-04 71 2000-05-05 87 2000-05-06 90 2000-05-07 94

Record warmth and moisture across the world.

Yeah, subsidence caused by coastal overdevelopment and excessive groundwater pumping coupled with rising sea levels is a big concern. This is way before the expected much greater sea level rises in the future once the ice sheets begin to give way in places like Antarctica. We are only one bad hurricane or wildfire season away from one of these big state insurers of last resort going under. They had a good business report on this about a month ago. It’s probably one the biggest stories not getting much national attention. Insurance is fundamental to our whole financial system.

The US is beginning to see the very early innings of how society will begin to adapt to more extreme weather. We have pretty much outsourced our national adaptation policy to the big reinsurance and insurance companies. So they are raising insurance rates and leaving markets with the highest exposure to losses. Adaptation for the individual homeowners in the most effected zones will be to move to another part of the country with lower homeowners insurance and less extreme weather. Just multiply this out across the whole world for the coming decades and you can see the extra pressure it’s going to add to the system. And this is even before the big sea level rises begin. We are already seeing issues with sea level rises of around 6 inches or so. Once we start talking feet people will begin to start seriously thinking about climate change.

Yeah, more annual 90° days overall but coming in shorter runs due to the wetter climate interrupting the individual heatwaves.

Especially 1991 with the record number on 90° days that spring. But the springs have been steadily getting earlier and warmer. It’s just that the warm up has occurred with more frequent spring -NAOs. The -NAOs can’t prevent the warming trend but they do shorten the warm ups when the -NAO is enough of a factor. So this spring has featured short 80°+ warm ups lasting a few days before the backdoors and onshore flow returns. Data for March 1, 1991 through May 31, 1991 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 CT DANBURY COOP 11 NJ CRANFORD COOP 9 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 8 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 8 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 8 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 6 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 6 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 6 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 5 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 4 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 4 NY MINEOLA COOP 4 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 3 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 3 NY WEST POINT COOP 3 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3

Yeah, spring is one of the the only seasons these -NAO patterns overperform. I am on the New England side of the backdoor with low clouds and mist. Like the cooler weather in general up here so far. Especially how quickly the temperatures fall due to much better radiational cooling after sunset. New Haven CLOUDY 55 54 96 S6 29.95F FOG

Yeah, still no extended 80° warm ups showing up just yet. We have been consistently getting a day or two of 80° plus from Newark east to here in Southern New England followed by backdoors. Looks like the Euro and GFS shift us back to a wetter pattern.

My guess is that climate change starts becoming so expensive for our economy to handle that we turn things around before we reach PETM levels of warmth. So an intermediate warmer climate state between what we used to have and prehistoric times. We will probably have to be on the move away from coastal areas that flood and areas where desertification occurs limiting agriculture.

Yes, weaker onshore flow along the immediate coastal beaches around the NY Bight can warm the SSTs at the beaches like we can see during the summer. But when you get further offshore this time of year persistent stronger easterly flow with clouds cools the SSTs. The record SSTs east of Newfoundland last summer were the result of sunny skies, high pressure, and light winds.

Upwelling from the easterly flow between the high to the north and 50/50 low which was displaced further south than usual. The spring has been one of our more reliable seasons for -NAO blocking. Almost like a rebound following the more +NAO winters.

Yeah, the easterly flow days in the mix will feel even cooler especially near the shore with the cold pool that has developed to our east.

There is always the opportunity for people to change their views once they make an honest evaluation of the data.

The first week of May will be a continuation of the April pattern. Warming back up to the 80s by Thursday before we get backdoored again heading into the weekend. The 50/50 low still remains strong.